BC Classic Question

[Redboard]

Who do you think will win the Breeders Cup Classic?

I'm interested to see who buys into the Arrogate phenomenon. His Travers performance certainly made this race more interesting. Was he a one-hit wonder or the real thing? What do you think?

[Mc990]

I think Chrome is the most likely winner but I'm very intrigued by the post draw and potential pace scenario. It's no secret that he does not want to sit behind horses so the potential for a wide trip is certainly there.

Effinex, Hopp and Gun Runner look live to me.

Arrogate has to regress off his last... How much is the big question. A slight backwards move, considering he's getting weight, could still get the job done. At the prospective odds though, I'll most likely pass.

I'd rather light my money on fire than use Frosted. No way he ships and beats these at 10f. He only has 1 race that would win this and we are a long way from a one turn mile at Belmont. He might end up 3rd choice and he should be no better than 8th based on the pre entries.

[stlseeeek]

as always, the track will be set up for the california horses.

and we will get another bad, california breeders cup. Where nearly 80% of the horses in each race have no shot because of the bogus surface. It's a shame these trainers and owners from the midwest and east coast, and europe continue to allow this, but then again, if they say anything, they wont get invited to the cali circle jerk parties, where they can get a photo with some hollyweirdos, and maybe, a pic with Bo Derek.

lol this industry

[DeltaLover]

Is this a race to bet or a clear pass?

Obviously CC is the most frequent winner and most likely he will leave the gate as a huge underlay. The question is, under what kind of racing conditions he might become vulnerable and how possible something like this is to happen.

Given his stellar performance in the Travers, Arrogate will also be over-bet as the second choice making him a very poor bet despite his substantial probability to win the race.

In any case, both CC and AG are either bet against or not bet at all.

Which one of the others can improve to a career top to upset these two?

[JustRalph]

Watching Arrogates last workout, he looks like the real deal to me....

[DeltaLover]

Watching Arrogates last workout, he looks like the real deal to me....

He will be overbet no matter what.

[Michael]

Is this a race to bet or a clear pass?


Do I get 4/1 on Arrogate? If not, race looks like a Insta-pass to me.

That said, not sure what to make of #4 Found atm.

[Robert Fischer]

I'd guess around 5/2 on Arrogate, but I'm not certain about that.

Found is good.

Can she beat the 'A' race of either Chrome or Arrogate?

If no, we are opening another can of worms (who else can contend if Chrome and Arrogate don't run well?)
These are all solid horses. Who gets a better trip? What kind of pace setup will we see?

[DeltaLover]

Do I get 4/1 on Arrogate? If not, race looks like a Insta-pass to me.

That said, not sure what to make of #4 Found atm.

I believe that his odds must be around 3-1. Not a bargain by any means. Looking elsewhere for a real upset..

[DeltaLover]

I'd guess around 5/2 on Arrogate, but I'm not certain about that.

Found is good.

Can she beat the 'A' race of either Chrome or Arrogate?

If no, we are opening another can of worms (who else can contend if Chrome and Arrogate don't run well?)
These are all solid horses. Who gets a better trip? What kind of pace setup will we see?

I doubt if she will run in the Classic and if she does I do not believe she has a chance to beat them.

[Mc990]

I believe that his odds must be around 3-1. Not a bargain by any means. Looking elsewhere for a real upset..

Effinex is going to be an overlay IMO and he has quite a few races that would be very competitive in here. If Prat can get him more of a ground saving trip than he's been subjected to the last year, he's a major player.

[Robert Fischer]

Nyquist setting moderate-fast pace with Arrogate pressing?

[DeltaLover]

Effinex is going to be an overlay IMO and he has quite a few races that would be very competitive in here. If Prat can get him more of a ground saving trip than he's been subjected to the last year, he's a major player.

Yes, he is an interesting horse. I am not sure though that the composition of the race is a perfect fit for his running style.

He is more of a presser than a closer and the race appears to have a lot of early speed which is not a good think for a horse who will follow in the third or fourth spot.

[DeltaLover]

Nyquist setting moderate-fast pace with Arrogate pressing?

I cannot see Nyquist been a factor here. He is clearly a precocious horse whose best days belong in his past.

[Robert Fischer]

I cannot see Nyquist been a factor here. He is clearly a precocious horse whose best days belong in his past.

Agreed :ThmbUp:

He's a long shot. I do like that he may be on the lead (I'm not convinced that Baffert or Sherman think they need the lead).
Long shots who at least figure to have the lead or initiative at some point, always get a recognition of a puncher's chance from me, over long shots who don't.

(Really just building a case now) Nyuist's Parx race was very flat, but it was on the quirky Parx surface and he kind of moved up 3 wide the entire race. Haskell and the Preakness were sloppy collapse(Exaggerator) races. Race before that was the Derby. Now he goes home and gets a fast track and the lead.
8-1 or so on the board? He's not the worst long shot in the field.

[Tom]

I cannot see Nyquist been a factor here. He is clearly a precocious horse whose best days belong in his past.

He is going to backing up so fast in the stretch, it will look like he is going back in time. He might finish in the first race on Sunday.
Zero shot.

[Robert Fischer]

No love for Frosted?

[DeltaLover]

No love for Frosted?

This is not his best distance and more than this his Metropolitan mile seems to have affected his ability. Looking elsewhere.

[Redboard]

LADBROKES 10/27/16 4pm
California Chrome 1/1
Arrogate 5/2
Frosted 8/1
Found 16/1
Melatonin 20/1
Shaman Ghost 25/1
Nyquist 25/1
Hoppertunity 25/1
Gun Runner 25/1
Effinex 33/1
Keen Ice 50/1
Win The Space 66/1
War Story 100/1

[EMD4ME]

No love for Frosted?

TOSS IMHO

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Struggling mightily with the Classic to find a wager outside of singling Chrome in horizontals.

Can't remember a Classic in which every other horse in the field has monster question marks surrounding them other than the favorite.

Arrogate: Hasn't raced since the Travers and that race was such a freak outside of all his previous races it is hard to really know what we'll get with such a lightly raced 3YO. He runs anywhere near that effort and he is your likely winner. Serious contender, but do you really want to take 5/2 maybe even 2/1 odds on a repeat performance?

Frosted: Freaked in the Met Mile, but every other race he has ran just isn't good enough in here. Anybody really banking on that repeat at 4/1 or maybe even lesser odds at 10Fs at a track he has never ran on? Kiaran McLaughlin won't even be wagering on his entry.

Found: Oozes class and connections, but can she take to dirt? What about the travel and short turnarounds of 3 races in 5 weeks? Massive wildcard that you may need at least 7 to 8/1 to put forth a W wager.

Melatonin: Been in the barn since late June. Having a monster year, but can he pop huge again off the bench in which he likely needs his career best to win? Hasn't ever beaten the likes of what he'll see in this one.

Everybody else: They have all come up short in lesser fields/races. Many have raced against Chrome before and gotten whipped when Chrome wasn't even at his very best. Many just simply don't even belong in the race and are nothing but exotics fodder hoping to clunk up for a piece.

[JustRalph]

Didn't Effenex just lose to Bafferts 2nd tier horse.....Hoppertunity?

[ReplayRandall]

Didn't Effenex just lose to Bafferts 2nd tier horse.....Hoppertunity?

Hoppertunity just might have finally progressed and matured to a 1st Tier horse.....or maybe not.

[upthecreek]

What's the price on Frosted going to be? May be my play,if the price is right

[JustRalph]

Hoppertunity just might have finally progressed and matured to a 1st Tier horse.....or maybe not.

I don't think his numbers show that? But that's off the top of my head. I've always liked the horse but he is pretty one paced if my memory serves. He runs about the same every race. He needs it to go his way

[Exotic1]

Yes, he is an interesting horse. I am not sure though that the composition of the race is a perfect fit for his running style.

He is more of a presser than a closer and the race appears to have a lot of early speed which is not a good think for a horse who will follow in the third or fourth spot.

Agree. He's had cozy soft paced positional friendly races. He would have to run his Suburban '15 (stylistically) to be competitive. But that race (G2) isn't fast or classy enough for this BC. imo.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

CC will be tough here esp on his home track he has run so well over before.

I think the biggest wild card in here is knowing that two other horses, Arrogate and Frosted, both have had races this year that are capable of beating this field. Arrogate coming off his monster win and training lights out, and Frosted whos Met Mile win came out of no where.

I think the connections of Found are leaning in this direction. There is nothing to me that points out she can win this race outside of being a classy horse, and this is an ambitious spot to try dirt for the first time, but you have to think the connections think she has a shot and wont disgrace herself when she stands a legitimate chance to repeat on the turf.

[Robert Fischer]

Guessing, we most likely see a moderate pace, with Nyquist on the lead and Arrogate pressing to his outside.

If for some reason order isn't established at the break (eg some combination of Nyquist, Melatonin, Arrogate, Highland Reel breaking really sharp), we could then see a hotter pace.

Highland Reel is also basically Found's uncoupled entry-mate (if both run in the Classic). Have to guess that his role will involve attempting to attend the .pace.


Found would benefit. She is also potentially the only true stretch-runner, who also happens to be a Grade 1 talent in the field. If you can envision her running in the classic, shipping her 'A' game, taking to the surface, AND getting a hot pace, - she may be the only entry talented enough to beat Chrome in such a scenario.

Seems like an awful lot of factors that have to go right, in order to reach such a scenario...

I honestly don't see another 'scenario' where Chrome is beaten by a closer. A hot pace likely means Chrome stalking/cruising 3rd or 4th and rushing by softened rivals for a win.

In the event of a hot pace, Frosted could actually potentially benefit.
He could also find himself involved and hurt by the pace, but I believe that he does his best running when inheriting good position from a hot pace, while he seemingly progresses 'in-hand' (as we've seen, that is not necessarily an indication that he has more to offer).


Hoppertunity and Keen Ice may not be true Grade 1 horses, but both are basically 'pace vultures' in this race, and will be looking to circle late, in event of a meltdown. Hoppertunity is 'Mr. Reliable' in the meltdown scenarios. He beat a weak field in the JCGC, and will be a relative underlay. Keen Ice is a deeper closer, but will be a huge price.

Shaman Ghost is a grinder with stamina. There are legit class questions. He's done enough in 2016 that he deserves to be in the conversation of hot pace beneficiaries.


potential 50cent tri ticket for 'hot pace' scenario
(WHOLE SCENARIO)
1ST: CHROME, FOUND
2ND: CHROME, FOUND, FROSTED, HOPPERTUNITY, KEEN ICE, SHAMAN GHOST
3RD: FOUND, FROSTED, HOPPERTUNITY, KEEN ICE, SHAMAN GHOST
=$18

('A' SCENARIO)
1ST: CHROME
2ND: FROSTED, HOPPERTUNITY, KEEN ICE, SHAMAN GHOST
3RD: FOUND, FROSTED, HOPPERTUNITY, KEEN ICE, SHAMAN GHOST
=$8

(Keen Ice key)(Arrogate adds 'flexibility', ie no meltdown required)
1ST: CHROME
2ND: FROSTED, HOPPERTUNITY, SHAMAN GHOST, ARROGATE
3RD: KEEN ICE
=$2

[CincyHorseplayer]

Is Found officially in Robert?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Guessing, we most likely see a moderate pace,

Can't see it.

Not at Santa. They'll go out in 23 and 46 at worst with Chrome, Arrogate, and Nyquist.

Bayern already wrote the script. Get out and make Chrome hunt you down. Arrogate and Nyquist will have to run that script if they can.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Can't see it.

Not at Santa. They'll go out in 23 and 46 at worst with Chrome, Arrogate, and Nyquist.

Bayern already wrote the script. Get out and make Chrome hunt you down. Arrogate and Nyquist will have to run that script if they can.

Looking at every surface from last week it is rail rail rail no matter the distance. They had to run a sub 45 for a closer to win last week in a sprint. Turf too. I have seen all the closers go down in 2 turn routes.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Looking at every surface from last week it is rail rail rail no matter the distance. They had to run a sub 45 for a closer to win last week in a sprint. Turf too. I have seen all the closers go down in 2 turn routes.

SA has always been a conveyor belt.

Takes special races and special horses to reverse that trend. Trainers and Jocks are all set in how they need to run at SA. And it works. That won't change, but on 2 days of the year, it can.., and will. :cool:

[Robert Fischer]

Can't see it.

Not at Santa. They'll go out in 23 and 46 at worst with Chrome, Arrogate, and Nyquist.

Bayern already wrote the script. Get out and make Chrome hunt you down. Arrogate and Nyquist will have to run that script if they can.

I actually agree with you 100%. Using different terminology.

In my terminology I'm calling the Bayern/ToastofNY/Chrome script, a "moderate pace". Mainly I'm focusing on them going 1-2-3 around the track more than the fractional time.

FWIW Bris has Chrome running 90/109/101 into a -2 +4 pace.

The above paragraph regarding a 'hot pace' is meant for a less likely scenario where the speeds can't sustain the pace.

My opinion is that a 2014 style race is the more likely general scenario.
I picture Arrogate going right out, but I also think that Nyquist can take the lead if Doug/Mario insist.

Chrome and Arrogate are obviously beasts on their day.

Can Nyquist last and hit the board a la Toast of New York in the Bayern 2014 script?

If horses tire a bit more, can someone like Hoppertunity, Keen Ice, or Shaman Ghost hit the board?

Is Found officially in Robert?
I don't know. Gun Runner is another who I'm not sure if running.

[CincyHorseplayer]

SA has always been a conveyor belt.

Takes special races and special horses to reverse that trend. Trainers and Jocks are all set in how they need to run at SA. And it works. That won't change, but on 2 days of the year, it can.., and will. :cool:

Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! :D

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! :D

I'll be there live and front row with our always great seats.

Bantering about this stuff just gets things banging around in my head. The turf races are going to be incredible. The Dirt Mile is solid regardless of what anybody says. The Distaff could be the race of the event and the Classic is always the Classic.

Can't ******* wait. :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll be there live and front row with our always great seats.

Bantering about this stuff just gets things banging around in my head. The turf races are going to be incredible. The Dirt Mile is solid regardless of what anybody says. The Distaff could be the race of the event and the Classic is always the Classic.

Can't ******* wait. :ThmbUp:

Nice. I'll be playing emperor over here at the helm! :cool:

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Brother I am all consumed with this BC mania! :D

You arent lyin. im chomping at the bit to get out there

[ebcorde]

not as confident as I was earlier, just saw the PP's
on Arrogate. If he runs what he did at Saratoga. It's Arrogate.

But I just can't see Chrome being beat this year. So I will stick with Chrome The man against the boy. Experience wins out.


This is a weak field based on pre-entries Found can be competetive
Arrogate, Chrome Found Gun Runner Frosted, Melatonin.

Mail it in there's your superfecta and pentafecta

[ldiatone]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216217/nyquist-injured-out-of-breeders-cup-classic?utm_source=NewsAlert&utm_medium=email

[bobphilo]

I actually agree with you 100%. Using different terminology.

In my terminology I'm calling the Bayern/ToastofNY/Chrome script, a "moderate pace". Mainly I'm focusing on them going 1-2-3 around the track more than the fractional time.


Horses running 1-2-3 around the track is no indicator of a moderate pace. Maybe the other riders realized if they try to get the big horse beat they'll get themselves beat worse. They probably remembered Lezcano's bonehead ride on Frosted in the Travers where he got both himself and AP beat to the plodder Keen Ice.
I look at the fractions in relation to the final time and it looks like they all rode to their horses pace abilities. Of course some of the horses just went off form, not the riders' faults.
The only horse who was ridden poorly was CC who was wide the whole way costing him 4 lengths when only losing by a neck.

[Robert Fischer]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216217/nyquist-injured-out-of-breeders-cup-classic?utm_source=NewsAlert&utm_medium=email
Nyquist OUT.


So that simplifies the pace a little bit.
Melatonin will be urged from the gate for that position.
Sherman and Baffert aren't averse to the lead, but neither would sacrifice horse to be on the lead.

Highland Reel is a bit of a question mark, but I'm not even sold that he's capable of out-breaking Melatonin for the pace.

[Redboard]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216217/nyquist-injured-out-of-breeders-cup-classic?utm_source=NewsAlert&utm_medium=email

I didn't think he had much of a shot but it's always nice to see the derby winner in the BCC. Would have took some money too, just for that very reason.

[PhantomOnTour]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/216217/nyquist-injured-out-of-breeders-cup-classic?utm_source=NewsAlert&utm_medium=email
Thank the Lord for BloodHorse and other racing publications.
The LA Times article about Nyquist's withdrawal from the Classic was laughable.

It listed him and Seattle Slew as the only undefeated winners of the Derby :faint: :faint: :faint:
We've had three others do this in just the last 13yrs or so...Smarty Jones, Barbaro and Big Brown.

The struggle goes on...

[depalma113]

The race is Arrogate's to lose. The guy has Sprinter speed at a route. His workouts on the slow Santa Anita track are insane.

1:24.40 and only one other horse ran a sub 1:26 seven furlong workout in the entire month of October and that was his workmate Mor Spirit.

This guy is going to leave them all in his wake. He is the real deal.

[DeltaLover]

The race is Arrogate's to lose. The guy has Sprinter speed at a route. His workouts on the slow Santa Anita track are insane.

1:24.40 and only one other horse ran a sub 1:26 seven furlong workout in the entire month of October and that was his workmate Mor Spirit.

This guy is going to leave them all in his wake. He is the real deal.

This is a very optimistic view and frankly I think it is more suitable to a fan rather to a bettor.

[menifee]

Arrogate has to go to win this race right? Only way I'm seeing him winning is a Bayern type wite to wire win. Should be interesting if Victor chooses to go with him. I know CC can rate, but I'm not sure he wants to let Arrogate clear him from the outside. I wouldn't be surprised if that first quarter was 22 and 1.

[Robert Fischer]

http://oi64.tinypic.com/2afmqs5.jpg

impressive

[ebcorde]

Arrogate has to go to win this race right? Only way I'm seeing him winning is a Bayern type wite to wire win. Should be interesting if Victor chooses to go with him. I know CC can rate, but I'm not sure he wants to let Arrogate clear him from the outside. I wouldn't be surprised if that first quarter was 22 and 1.


possible He's got the right trainer. But CCs' trainer knows that track and Baffert too and he most always fires.

now Arrogate is the 10 hole, so no traffic but what about is position at the first turn? He;ll have to go out fast. CC #4 hole. Melaonin #5 hole. Arrogate has to expend more energy early he does not want to be 10 wide on the turn. he needs to be close to the rail, no? And your also imply Baffert makes sure Hoppertunity #9 breaks slow

whoa I've been spending time on the big boys there are 2 Jerkens Horses in the race!!!! Stop the Presses. I have to re-evaluate the race. what's Jerkens up too? When a trainer enters 2-3 in 1 race I get curious. Shaman Ghost beat Frosted last out.

is it Possible he sends Effinex to force a fast pace and Shaman Ghost picks up the pieces late with a little Drosselmeyer run?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Arrogate on this surface. Unless they do something stupid, in the words of Hawk Harrelson "He gone"!

[ebcorde]

anyone see the move Shaman Ghost made? wow that Horse followed the Jock's cue and went for that inside lane That's a smart aggressive Horse.

[Robert Fischer]

is it Possible he sends Effinex to force a fast pace and Shaman Ghost picks up the pieces late with a little Drosselmeyer run?

Effinex has 'gotta go' from the 1 hole.

If Prat has the opportunity to race-ride with Effinex a bit, and keep a rival a path or two wider, he sure will.

There's a pretty good run to the first turn. There's a good 25-30 seconds before they have to take the turn. A lot of time for them to sort themselves out.

I don't think he'll be sacrificed like a pawn, to set up Shaman Ghost, but he'll be forwardly placed.

[ebcorde]

Effinex has 'gotta go' from the 1 hole.

If Prat has the opportunity to race-ride with Effinex a bit, and keep a rival a path or two wider, he sure will.

There's a pretty good run to the first turn. There's a good 25-30 seconds before they have to take the turn. A lot of time for them to sort themselves out.

I don't think he'll be sacrificed like a pawn, to set up Shaman Ghost, but he'll be forwardly placed.


If CC and arrogate were not in the Race Shaman Ghost has moxie.
CC is a too much first team all-pro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPd6hcivk1U (www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPd6hcivk1U)

[Vinnie]

I know that Arrogate's Travers was simply off the charts and quite frankly just a brilliant performance, but, the question is does he possess more quickness and adaptable athleticism than CC?! I just don't think he is going to get the lead on CC when CC is coming from inside of him from the #4 hole. Of course, I could easily be wrong. If Arrogate simply goes to the front, watch out!!! :)

However, if he is behind Chrome where I believe that he will be early, how does he react to that situation? Chrome is a BEAST right now! It should indeed be a very interesting race to watch. I just don't believe Chrome will falter if he finds himself on or near the front right now in his present form and condition.

Good Skill to all today and tomorrow... Enjoy!!!

[GaryG]

I do not think Arrogate needs the lead. I like his chances pressing CC just as much. Actually, I like him a whole lot.

[Psychotic Parakeet]

Shaman Ghost scratched out of the race.

[depalma113]

This is a very optimistic view and frankly I think it is more suitable to a fan rather to a bettor.

Or not.