Preliminary Breeders Cup Past Performances

[Redboard]

Use this thread to post your thoughts about the Preliminary BC PPs which came out this week.

One of the things that jumped out at me is what a solid field that the BC Dirt Mile is shaping up to be. I know that some like to joke about this race, including me, sure I'd like to see a few of these in the BCC, but if it’s a competitive contest with a full field.
Dortmund will probably be the favorite, followed by Gun Runner and Tamarkuz, but I can’t see any going off at lower that 4-1. Win the Space looks interesting, so does Texas Chrome.


Dirt Mile Prelim Field (2 turns)
Indexical (E 8)
Bradester (E 7)
Dortmund (E 7)
Runhappy (E/P 8)
Texas Chrome (E/P 5)
Dalmore (E/P 5)
Point Piper (E/P 4)
Tamarkuz (E/P 4)
Cyrus Alexander (P 5)
Win the Space (P 4)
Gun Runner (P 3)
Upstart (P 3)
Vyjack (S 3)
Tom's Ready (S 1)
Gun Pit (???)

[dilanesp]

Use this thread to post your thoughts about the Preliminary BC PPs which came out this week.

One of the things that jumped out at me is what a solid field that the BC Dirt Mile is shaping up to be. I know that some like to joke about this race, including me, sure I'd like to see a few of these in the BCC, but if it’s a competitive contest with a full field.
Dortmund will probably be the favorite, followed by Gun Runner and Tamarkuz, but I can’t see any going off at lower that 4-1. Win the Space looks interesting, so does Texas Chrome.


Dirt Mile Prelim Field (2 turns)
Indexical (E 8)
Bradester (E 7)
Dortmund (E 7)
Runhappy (E/P 8)
Texas Chrome (E/P 5)
Dalmore (E/P 5)
Point Piper (E/P 4)
Tamarkuz (E/P 4)
Cyrus Alexander (P 5)
Win the Space (P 4)
Gun Runner (P 3)
Upstart (P 3)
Vyjack (S 3)
Tom's Ready (S 1)
Gun Pit (???)

The strength of that field is a tribute to the greatness of California Chrome.

[Secondbest]

Use this thread to post your thoughts about the Preliminary BC PPs which came out this week.

One of the things that jumped out at me is what a solid field that the BC Dirt Mile is shaping up to be. I know that some like to joke about this race, including me, sure I'd like to see a few of these in the BCC, but if it’s a competitive contest with a full field.
Dortmund will probably be the favorite, followed by Gun Runner and Tamarkuz, but I can’t see any going off at lower that 4-1. Win the Space looks interesting, so does Texas Chrome.


Dirt Mile Prelim Field (2 turns)
Indexical (E 8)
Bradester (E 7)
Dortmund (E 7)
Runhappy (E/P 8)
Texas Chrome (E/P 5)
Dalmore (E/P 5)
Point Piper (E/P 4)
Tamarkuz (E/P 4)
Cyrus Alexander (P 5)
Win the Space (P 4)
Gun Runner (P 3)
Upstart (P 3)
Vyjack (S 3)
Tom's Ready (S 1)
Gun Pit (???)
A quick look shows only 2 S horses. 4 P horses. Winner in those 6?

[Garyinseattle]

The strength of that field is a tribute to the greatness of California Chrome.


While California Chrome is a monster no doubt, which horses in this list were serious BC Classic contenders?

Outside of Upstart, Gun Runner, and maybe Dortmund I don't really see any Grade I mile and a quarter horses here.


Even if CC didn't make the Classic....I can't see many of these who would have tried 1 1/4

[Redboard]

A quick look shows only 2 S horses. 4 P horses. Winner in those 6?

Point Piper (E/P 4) — Don’t know why Bris has him listed as an Early Speed / Presser type. Looks like more of a closer to me. One win this year and that was at EMD. Toss.

Cyrus Alexander (P 5) — Won two out of his last four, but didn’t beat much in those four. Last time he ran at Santa Anita was at similar distance in April , came in 4th of six. Toss.

Win the Space (P 4) — Could benefit from the expected Indexical / Dortmund speed duel. I’d bite at 8-1.

Gun Runner (P 3) — Has fired in every one of his lifetime races, except when on the slop. Definite contender.

Upstart (P 3) — Irad will probably be aboard. Looks like Underlay territory to me. Need 10-1 here but probably won’t get half that.

Vyjack (S 3) — Will be the 28th lifetime start for this 6-YrOld gelding who’s having a pretty good year with four races: two wins, two second places; however, three of those four were on turf. Who knows, maybe this war horse will win one more for the gipper. Love those old guys.

Tom's Ready (S 1) — Deepest closer of the bunch here. Will be flying late. Why not? Another bite at 8-1.

Gun Pit (???)— One of those Dubai World Cup also rans that CC and Hoportunity beat up on. (Has any of those also-rans done anything since?) Has ran at Sha Tin on the turf since with no better than a 4th place finish. Toss.

[Mulerider]

Big fan of Gun Runner here. Another to watch is Texas Chrome...he recently won the Super Derby and the Oklahoma Derby in a 15 day span. TC ran a 96 BSF in the OK Derby, but it wasn't the easiest of trips. He might be outclassed here, but I'd be hesitant to leave him out of exotics.

[reckless]

Dortmund is a single against the field that's posted now.

[Redboard]

BC Sprint , 6f, field is capped at 14 starters.
Masochistic (E 6)
Indexical (E 8)
Mongolian Saturday (E/P 7)
Drefong (E/P 7)
Lord Nelson (E/P 6)
Awesome Banner (E/P 6)
A. P. Indian (E/P 6)
Delta Bluesman (E/P 6)
Noholdingback Bear (E/P 6)
All Run (E/P 5)
Holy Boss (E/P 5)
Limousine Liberal (E/P 4)
Economic Model (P 1)
Stallwalkin' Dude (P 1)
Passion for Action (P 0)
Mind Your Biscuits (S 1)
Joking (S 0)

Again, should be a very competitive contest, half this field could win, it’ll be all about value. I don’t see anyone here lower than 4-1. Masochistic should be the favorite, due to his best beyers in his last two out of three; horse for the course, as well as being the only pure speed in the race(according to Bris) if Indexical opts for the Dirt Mile. But he bombed pretty bad in last year’s BC Sprint finishing dead last. Bob Baffert’s two bullets, Lord Nelson and Drefong, will probably be the second and third favorites. A. P. Indian will be heavily bet too—the beast from the east. One of these will have to be 5-1.

Looking for value plays beyond these: Joking, who won his last four coming from dead last; Stallwalkin' Dude is another closer who will probably have one of the Ortiz brothers on board; Delta Bluesman won five out of his last six. One of these will have to be 10-1.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

AP Indian will be tough, horse always shows up. You would think he should be able to handle this course, versatile type too being able to set the pace or lay off it.

Delta Bluesman might be worth using in exotics just based on Navarro :bang:

Drefong figures having won over this course and Baffert

Joking-I can certainly root for Charlie Baker anyday and will be using him on some tickets. Might be a cut below these, and his last out in the slop was impressive given the condition of the track, but in the True North it just seemed like the race fell apart late.

Lord Nelson and Masochistic look scary too.

So yea, wide open! haha

[Secondbest]

Sprint is always a great betting race.Exoctics usually pay very Well. My favorite BC race to bet.

[cj]

Sprint is always a great betting race.Exoctics usually pay very Well. My favorite BC race to bet.

I think this is the weakest Sprint we've seen in a long time which should make it ripe for prices.

[SoCalCircuit]

Curious as to the timeform pace projection given that the big 4 are all early speed. Could set up nicely for the horses coming out of the Vosburgh if the surface is playing fair.

[cj]

Curious as to the timeform pace projection given that the big 4 are all early speed. Could set up nicely for the horses coming out of the Vosburgh if the surface is playing fair.

Will certainly have it once the PPs are drawn. Just curious, which do you consider the Big 4?

[cj]

Will certainly have it once the PPs are drawn. Just curious, which do you consider the Big 4?

Of those we have as considering the race, these are the early speed ratings for the fastest:

Delta Bluesman 133
Runhappy 130 (Dirt Mile most likely)
Masochistic 123
Mongolian Saturday 123 (Turf sprint most likely)
Noholdingback Bear 121
Drefong 120
A. P. Indian 117
Holy Boss 117

[Bigadam119]

I think this is the weakest Sprint we've seen in a long time which should make it ripe for prices.

Interesting as I thought this was one of the toughest sprints.

[Redboard]

Dortmund is a single against the field that's posted now.

He certainly will be the favorite. His chances will depend on post position. If he’s on the outside, it’s a short run to the turn. Since he will have a target on his back, the jocks on the inside are not going to let him cruise to the lead.

[cj]

Interesting as I thought this was one of the toughest sprints.

I think it is well matched, just slower than we usually see for a BC Sprint overall.

[SoCalCircuit]

Will certainly have it once the PPs are drawn. Just curious, which do you consider the Big 4?

I've been considering the Baffert's, AP Indian, and Masochistic the Big 4. Not from any handicapping perspective, but mainly given future odds by Watchmaker and overseas. It seems like they'll all be in that 7-2 to 7-1 range and then a gap to a 12-1 to 15-1 range.

[Redboard]

Sprint is always a great betting race.Exoctics usually pay very Well. My favorite BC race to bet.

I agree. It's a crazy race where you need a perfect trip—if you blink you lost. It's usually never won gate-to-wire , the last to do that was Big Drama at Churchill in 2010. Favs rarely win too, although Secret Circle did in 2013. Here’s the last three winners at SA:

2014- Work All Week– 20/1 - 11th betting fav
2013 – Secret Circle — 5/2 fav
2012- Trinniberg — 14/1 – 7th betting fav

[Redboard]

................
Joking-I can certainly root for Charlie Baker anyday and will be using him on some tickets. Might be a cut below these, and his last out in the slop was impressive given the condition of the track, but in the True North it just seemed like the race fell apart late.
................



Yea, he'll need some luck, a pace meltdown and a perfect trip. Won't be easy!

[Spalding No!]

He certainly will be the favorite. His chances will depend on post position. If he’s on the outside, it’s a short run to the turn. Since he will have a target on his back, the jocks on the inside are not going to let him cruise to the lead.
I think Dortmund on paper is distinctly vulnerable. His form has declined markedly since the gut buster he pulled off in the San Diego. You might explain away the Pacific Classic because of the 10f but you can't confidently do that with his Goodwood effort. He was obliterated in that race by California Chrome and thanks to Espinoza's silly stranglehold at the end, Dortmund's running line fails to reflect how badly he was drubbed.

Additional red flags include the desperation move of slapping blinkers on the colt for the Goodwood, a history of physical issues which prompted long layoffs twice last year and which kept him out of action until this summer, and a curious worktable since his last start. Whereas between his other starts this year, Baffert has had no problem letting this horse bullet work 5f, 6f, and 7f, since the Goodwood Dortmund has offered up a measly 3f move and an ordinary half-mile.

The good news is there isn't a single Grade 1 winner for 2016 in the Dirt Mile (nothing new there) other than the one-dimensional Bradester, upset winner of the Stephen Foster.

[reckless]

I think Dortmund on paper is distinctly vulnerable. His form has declined markedly since the gut buster he pulled off in the San Diego. You might explain away the Pacific Classic because of the 10f but you can't confidently do that with his Goodwood effort. He was obliterated in that race by California Chrome and thanks to Espinoza's silly stranglehold at the end, Dortmund's running line fails to reflect how badly he was drubbed.

Additional red flags include the desperation move of slapping blinkers on the colt for the Goodwood, a history of physical issues which prompted long layoffs twice last year and which kept him out of action until this summer, and a curious worktable since his last start. Whereas between his other starts this year, Baffert has had no problem letting this horse bullet work 5f, 6f, and 7f, since the Goodwood Dortmund has offered up a measly 3f move and an ordinary half-mile.

The good news is there isn't a single Grade 1 winner for 2016 in the Dirt Mile (nothing new there) other than the one-dimensional Bradester, upset winner of the Stephen Foster.

Dortmund is now... not a single. :lol:

You make good points but Dortmund has banged heads with the very best these past two years. And, I always thought he was more the miler type, anyway, fwiw.

[Redboard]

..............

You make good points but Dortmund has banged heads with the very best these past two years. And, I always thought he was more the miler type, anyway, fwiw.

Spalding does make good points but I'm not ready to toss Dortmund yet. Let's see what he looks like in this morning over the next few weeks.

The fact that Baffert dropped him into this races says something in itself.

[SoCalCircuit]

Does anyone else feel like the dirt mile has gone from one of the most difficult races to handicap to one of the least competitive races in the past few years? I haven't checked the numbers but I remember that race used to be full of prices and lately has been favoritey.

[reckless]

Spalding does make good points but I'm not ready to toss Dortmund yet. Let's see what he looks like in this morning over the next few weeks.

The fact that Baffert dropped him into this race says something in itself.

I agree. But tell me what you mean by your last point that I bolded?

I am not trying get snarky, please understand. I thought that Baffert might feel he has a monster in the Classic in Arrogate, and this is why he puts Dortmund in the Mile, a race I presume he also feels Dortmund could win.

[classhandicapper]

I started wondering about Dortmund after Matt Bernier showed me his in company workout with Bali Bali recently. He looked pretty bad that day. But I heard he worked better today.

[Redboard]

I agree. But tell me what you mean by your last point that I bolded?

I am not trying get snarky, please understand. I thought that Baffert might feel he has a monster in the Classic in Arrogate, and this is why he puts Dortmund in the Mile, a race I presume he also feels Dortmund could win.

I’m thinking of Fed Biz, back in 2012 & 2013. Baffert runs him in the BC Dirt Mile both years and he finishes up the track. Baffert has never won this race, not that he really wants to, I’m just saying that if his horse has no shot in the Classic, he runs him here which says something about the horse's quality. Your point about avoiding Arrogate makes sense too, although these trainers like to have as many as possible runners in the big races. Myself, I feel it’s more of the former rather than the latter.

Nice workout today though. Five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5. Hmmmmmm. (BTW Fed Biz in 2013 was coming off two bullet works too.)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I’m thinking of Fed Biz, back in 2012 & 2013. Baffert runs him in the BC Dirt Mile both years and he finishes up the track. Baffert has never won this race, not that he really wants to, I’m just saying that if his horse has no shot in the Classic, he runs him here which says something about the horse's quality. Your point about avoiding Arrogate makes sense too, although these trainers like to have as many as possible runners in the big races. Myself, I feel it’s more of the former rather than the latter.

Nice workout today though. Five furlongs in a bullet :58 4/5. Hmmmmmm. (BTW Fed Biz in 2013 was coming off two bullet works too.)

He'll go off as the favorite, but does he deserve it?

He is 0'fer '16, and hasn't won a race in a field with more than 5 horses since his Triple Crown trail dating back to the Santa Anita Derby in '14.

Yes, the field isn't full of all-stars, but it isn't full of nobodies either. And certainly isn't full of horses that will just hand him the lead.

To me, Dorty is simply a massive, big striding horse that needs to get on the lead against G2 or better quality horses, and grind out a win. 1 mile should fit him perfectly, but what happens in a large field, a bad post, a couple horses that give him more than he wants on the front end?

Can he control the front end with Bradester, Gun Runner, and Runhappy in the field along with Indexical stretching out? Because there is one thing for sure with me about Dortmund; he doesn't pass good horses late in races.

[cj]

I agree. But tell me what you mean by your last point that I bolded?

I am not trying get snarky, please understand. I thought that Baffert might feel he has a monster in the Classic in Arrogate, and this is why he puts Dortmund in the Mile, a race I presume he also feels Dortmund could win.

Not to mention he knows the horse can't beat Chrome barring something going amiss with that one.

[menifee]

While California Chrome is a monster no doubt, which horses in this list were serious BC Classic contenders?

Outside of Upstart, Gun Runner, and maybe Dortmund I don't really see any Grade I mile and a quarter horses here.


Even if CC didn't make the Classic....I can't see many of these who would have tried 1 1/4

Agreed. I actually thought this field was somewhat weak.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

While California Chrome is a monster no doubt, which horses in this list were serious BC Classic contenders?

Outside of Upstart, Gun Runner, and maybe Dortmund I don't really see any Grade I mile and a quarter horses here.


Even if CC didn't make the Classic....I can't see many of these who would have tried 1 1/4

Great point.

Here are your BC Dirt Mile winners.

2015: Liam's Map
2014: Goldencents
2013: Goldencents
2012: Tapizar
2011: Caleb's Posse
2010: Dakota Phone
2009: Furthest Land
2008: Albertus Maximus
2007: Corinithian

Do you see ANY of those winners in the Dirt Mile as true contenders in the Classic?

[sammy the sage]

Great point.

Here are your BC Dirt Mile winners.

2015: Liam's Map
2014: Goldencents
2013: Goldencents
2012: Tapizar
2011: Caleb's Posse
2010: Dakota Phone
2009: Furthest Land
2008: Albertus Maximus
2007: Corinithian

Do you see ANY of those winners in the Dirt Mile as true contenders in the Classic?

only Liam's Map...and he mighta won last year...I would have bet him in that race as well...we'll never know...

[SoCalCircuit]

Goldencents definitely could've won the sprint FWIW. IIRC wasn't Albertus the favorite in Dubai the following year?

[Spalding No!]

Great point.

Here are your BC Dirt Mile winners.

Do you see ANY of those winners in the Dirt Mile as true contenders in the Classic?
Never mind that Gary mentioned that only 25% of the Dirt Mile field could have run in the Classic this year, you would still have to look at the entire fields if you want to evaluate whether or not the Dirt Mile takes horses away from the Classic.

If you did, you would see that since its inception the race has drawn Kentucky Derby winners, Preakness winners, Travers winners, Haskell winners, Dubai World Cup winners, Woodward winners, Hollywood Gold Cup winners, Awesome Again winners, Pennsylvania Derby winners, Donn winners, Gulfstream Park Handicap winners, Wood Memorial winners, and Santa Anita Derby winners.

[dilanesp]

only Liam's Map...and he mighta won last year...I would have bet him in that race as well...we'll never know...

Agreed, Liam's Map is the only one, and he's an absolutely huge "what if". I'm sad we didn't get to see more of him.