Maiden, Debut, STS, TTS

[johnhenry81]

A lot has been exchanged regarding maidens, but can't seem find what I'm looking for. Anyone have and willing to share the number of horses yearly breaking their maiden in their debut, second career race, and third career race?

thanks in advance,
JH

[o_crunk]

This is the last five years.

debut: 11,865 winners from 136,565 starts. 8.6% strike. $2 ROI: $0.98. IV vs all maidens: 0.73

second start: 13,607 winners from 123,475 starts. 11% strike. $2 ROI: $0.99. IV vs all maidens: 0.93

third start: 13,185 winners from 114,326 starts. 11.5% strike. $2 ROI: $1.00. IV vs all maidens: 0.97

From studies I've done for myself, it's no surprise that horses making their second start make the most improvement as a group versus any other career start number. There is more improvement in the third start but that improvement is muted compared to the second start. By the fifth start, the improvement is not distinguishable from starts later on and the group levels off.

[johnhenry81]

thanks for the reply. i expected the second to be better than debut, but the third time start is a surprise to me.

I just returned from vegas where i played the orleans fall classic, and the top finishers there seemingly hit multiple fts and sts bombs to propel them.

jh

[o_crunk]

When I used to play more regularly, I would get a daily list of all second time starters. Then I would manually look for hidden early speed in the debut. The horse hit the gate in the debut but kept up with the field or the early pace numbers were respectable despite the running line looking like a blowout. Second time starters who display this coupled w/ equipment and distance / surface changes are particularly potent. This is a category where generally all improve significantly trainer independent.

Debuts are a different game. Much more trainer dependent IMO.

[classhandicapper]

When I used to play more regularly, I would get a daily list of all second time starters. Then I would manually look for hidden early speed in the debut. The horse hit the gate in the debut but kept up with the field or the early pace numbers were respectable despite the running line looking like a blowout. Second time starters who display this coupled w/ equipment and distance / surface changes are particularly potent. This is a category where generally all improve significantly trainer independent.

Debuts are a different game. Much more trainer dependent IMO.

The other place that is very fertile grounds is the first time starter disadvantaged by a bias. When a bias impacts the average horse negatively, people still see the horse's overall record and might excuse a single bad race. So he'll still get bet. But if the lone race in the PPs is misleading AND you get improvement, you can find enormous jump ups.