HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/19

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone that’s interested in playing the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields of 10 to 12 entries in ALL 8 Turf races.
There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: R#3 - R#4 - R#6
I won’t be posting any live selections for any of the races in this morning.
However, my early selections will follow.

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races, try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

[Nitro]

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race based on what I call a “static tote analysis”.
Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.
The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1000M (5F) Turf............2-4W/ 9-3- 5-1 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf............5-2 W/ 3-7-1-11 …....7:45 AM EST
(Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #6)

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf............2-1 W/ 7-5-10-8...........8:15 AM EST
( Also of interest I’ll be watching the action on #3 & #9)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf............6-1 W/ 2-12-8-10…........8:45 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest be watching the action on #9 & #7)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf.......2-7 W/ 10-1-4-5............9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf........1-4 W/ 3-2-5-6…........9:45 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #9)

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf............1-8 W/ 10-4-6-9.........10:15 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #12 & #2)

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf.............1-3 W/ 2-4-5-12 …....…10:50 AM EST
( Also of I’ll interest I’ll be watching the action on #9 & #11)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

For any of those who might be considering Dutch Win betting:

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly right after inputting the odds of the selected entries: (Enter Lowest odds to left)
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Potential Profit in $ and %

Note:
Considering that the current hit frequency is 57%, a greater O.A. Profit margin can be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing those races where the Profit % shows less then a 50% margin
……b) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……c) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
...............In other words it’s NOT necessary to play every race!

(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[Nitro]

So far we’re only 1 for 5 with the early picks as far as the Dutching goes with a really nice score in race #4.
Plus there have been some decent Quinellas available.
Fortunately, the live tote has covered 3 of the other 4 races very nicely.

[Nitro]

Update:
If someone decided to play Dutch Win bets using the Top 3 early picks these were the results:

R#1 – 2-4 W/ 9-3-5-1.............. Results: 3-4-9-12 (4th choice – Quin & Tri)
Dutch – 2 ( 9.6/1 ) – 4 ( 4.2/1 ) – 9 ( 4.6/1 ) - ($51.00) – ($51.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 4.6 9.6 BET PRF
$10 $11 $21
$21 $20 $10 $51 $59 115%
$110 $110 $110

R#2 – 5-2 W/ 3-7-1-11................... Results: 6-5-10-2 (Out)
Dutch – 5 ( 9/1 ) – 2 ( 6.8/1 ) – 3 ( 5.8/1 ) - ($51.00) – ($102.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.8 6.8 9.0 BET PRF
$14 $16 $20
$20 $17 $14 $51 $85 166%
$136 $136 $136

R#3 - 2-1 W/ 7-5-10-8....... Results: 4-2-1-10 (Out)
Dutch – 2 ( 17/1 ) – 1 ( 10/1 ) – 7 ( 8/1 ) - ($83.00) – ($185.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
8.0 10.0 17.0 BET PRF
$18 $22 $36
$36 $29 $18 $83 $241 288%
$324 $324 $324

R#4 - 6-1 W/ 2-12-8-10......... Results: 1 -6-4-2 (2nd choice – Quin)
Dutch – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) – 1 ( 12/1 ) – 2 ( 16/1 ) - $204.00 – $19.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
7.1 12.0 16.0 BET PRF
$16 $26 $34
$34 $21 $16 $71 $204 286%
$275 $275 $275

R#5 – 2-7 W/ 10-1-4-5......... Results: 4-2-3-6 (5th choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 3.7/1 ) – 7 ( 2.5/1 ) – 10 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($34.00) – ($15.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 3.7 6.8 BET PRF
$7 $9 $16
$16 $12 $7 $34 $20 60%
$55 $55 $55

R#6 – 1-4 W/ 3-2-5-6......... Results: 10-1-4-6 (Out)
Dutch – 1 ( 7/1 ) – 4 ( 3.2/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) - ($48.00) – ($63.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 7.0 12.0 BET PRF
$8 $16 $26
$26 $14 $8 $48 $61 127%
$109 $109 $109

R#7 - 1-8 W/ 10-4-6-9.......... Results: 10-9-1-6 (3rd choice – Quin & Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 3.1/1 ) – 8 ( 16/1 ) – 10 ( 3/1 ) - $61.00 – ($2.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.1 16.0 BET PRF
$8 $8 $34
$34 $33 $8 $75 $61 81%
$136 $136 $136

R#8 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-5-12........Results: 7-2-10-1 (Out)
Dutch –1 ( 3.2/1 ) – 3 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 4.8/1 ) - ($30.00) – [B] ($32.00)[B]

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.2 4.8 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $12 $12
$12 $9 $8 $30 $22 75%
$52 $52 $52
This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played a positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race).
Hitting only 2 out of 8 races (25%) produced a hypothetical loss of $32 after betting $443 or a 7% Loss margin.

This might have been just one of those days!
Because in each and every one of the 6 races that was lost, the early Dutch selection finished 2nd!
(R1 – R2 – R3 – R5 – R6 & R8)
Fortunately the live tote analysis covered 3 of those races very well only because of actual betting taking place.

[kevb]

Thanks for posting Nitro.