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upthecreek
10-17-2016, 02:33 PM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Nitro
10-17-2016, 04:15 PM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject
None. But don’t go by me because I don’t handicap.
There might be some validity to comparing previous odds to today’s odds, if and only if the race conditions (Class, Distance, Surface, etc.) were the same. But even then, without knowing the physical and mental condition of the horse itself any type of comparison would seem inconsequential.

With small fields dominating the racing scene at many tracks these days there will be races where biggest price on the board is 10/1. (So that 90% figure might be right if there’s nothing with bigger odds in the race to begin with).

It’s a well-known fact that at most tracks in the States where they have reasonably sized betting pools, the following winning averages hold true:
1) The Top betting choice Wins 32 to 34% of the time.
2) Either of the Top 2 betting choices Wins 56 to 58% of the time
3) Any one of the Top 3 betting choices Wins 65 to 67% of the time
4) Any one of the Top 4 betting choices Wins 72 to 75% of the time
It follows that long shots win about 25% of the time. I assume that means the 5th choice or lower.

lamboguy
10-17-2016, 04:20 PM
the truth of the matter is that it does influence me. if the horse won the prior race and was 10-1, today he is 7-5 i usually don't play the horse.

the way i look at it is that i missed the wedding and don't want to be around for the funeral.

not great reasoning, but its just one of those quirks you have when you are a horse player

whodoyoulike
10-17-2016, 04:58 PM
:1: the truth of the matter is that it does influence me. if the horse won the prior race and was 10-1, today he is 7-5 i usually don't play the horse.

the way i look at it is that i missed the wedding and don't want to be around for the funeral.

:2: not great reasoning, but its just one of those quirks you have when you are a horse player

Regarding :1: does it have anything to do with in horse racing that horses are usually raised in "class" level in follow up races after a win.

:2: I think this a common quirk of horse players given the number of repeat winners unless you can see that the horse is rounding into form.

BELMONT 6-6-09
10-17-2016, 05:03 PM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Referring to an American Turf Monthly article from April 1985 80-85% of winners went off at less then 10/1 odds in his research compiling over 500 races

TheOracle
10-17-2016, 05:25 PM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

Hey Upthecreek

In this example
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133435

D G Donk seemed to interchange Lady Kresa and King Kresa with J L Ortiz aboard and he was having some limited success

I don't handicap so I wouldn't let the ML odds bother me one bit I would try to keep playing the tandem until it wasn't profitable anymore

However, I am interested to know what type of performance measure they used for the odds

Do you know what they did to come up with the performance number for the odds?

Also did they use ML odds or actual odds?

upthecreek
10-18-2016, 09:01 AM
Referring to an American Turf Monthly article from April 1985 80-85% of winners went off at less then 10/1 odds in his research compiling over 500 races

My buddy ran a years worth of races thru his DB and found 95.71% of the races were won by horses 10-1 or less

PICSIX
10-18-2016, 09:24 AM
1.) I like to hawk a well bet first time starter the next 1 or 2 races if it had a bad performance in that first race.

2.) When a horse is making a significant class drop I look to see that it didn't take much action in it's prior race. This tells me the class relief is needed and generally the horse is sound.

whisperlunch
10-18-2016, 09:52 AM
Never let the odds get you on a horse , Never let the odds get you off a horse However you can let the odds determine the size of your bet on the horse...

Whosonfirst
10-18-2016, 10:13 AM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject
Upthecreek, I use high ML plays when I'm focusing on my brand of tote analysis or Speed Improv. Here's 10 recent winners I've bet and their ML's; Not that I focus on high ML's, but they no longer scare me away. Sometimes you look at PP's and say, this horse should be 6-1 to 8-1 in my mind. With the exception of two of these, all were strictly tote analysis plays.

9/27-4PARX-W 18.40 12-1ML: 8-1 EM$(first flash at OTB)
10/2-1Parx- W 20.00 10-1ML: ?? 2nd lowest l.r. speed rating
" -1LRL - PL 14.60 20-1ML: 7-1 EM$
10/2-3LRL - W 21.60 21.60ML: 6-1EM$
10/3-10PARX-W 44.00 20-1ML also +16 Sp Improv-legit ML, was 6th by 10 l's and 44.75-1 odds. prev. race 6th by 10 and 26.25-1.
10/3-2DEL - W 24.60 10-1ML
10/7 1BEL - W 19.00 15-1ML 7-1 EM$
" 2LRL - W 30.20 12-1ML +12 SP IMP
10/8-1PARX- W 33.20 12-1ML-
" -3PARX- W 18.20 12-1ML
For the record, I do play many more in the 5-2 to 8-1 ML's than high ML's.

Robert Fischer
10-18-2016, 11:44 AM
I like to see odds fluctuations in the Past Performances, and 'why' they fluctuated.

Throw a multiplier against this factor in Claiming races.

Often a show of money and/or a claim, correlate to the race prior to the money. That prior-to-the-money race was considered to be an improved one. That is often a good race to go back to and form a personal opinion about. Do I think it was really a step up?? Did the horse actually do some (improved) running?

v j stauffer
10-18-2016, 12:49 PM
Never let the odds get you on a horse , Never let the odds get you off a horse However you can let the odds determine the size of your bet on the horse...

This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

whisperlunch
10-18-2016, 01:36 PM
Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

v j stauffer
10-18-2016, 02:00 PM
Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

Whisper

I saw you've been a member since 2008. I was only referring to the fact you're a very infrequent poster.

I meant no disrespect.

I sometimes cringe too when a person says they're "looking for a value play". It's because they think that simply means higher odds.

As for the rest of what you said in your 2nd post. I 100% disagree with all of it. You can't make Chicken Soup out of Chicken Shit and that's exactly what your post is suggesting.

But that's why we keep track. If what you are doing is showing a profit then by all means you should tell me to shut up and carry on.

If it's not. If you're losing. You might want to re-think some of your methods and perhaps consider alternatives.

Best of luck. :ThmbUp:

thaskalos
10-18-2016, 02:26 PM
Not so fast Mr. Stauffer. One I've been a member for prolly longer than you. Two I really respect your opinion three let me clarify. All winners have value. If the horse is 4/5 and you can't beat him then play Him in exactas or pic 3orpic 4. Winners pay the losers in this sport so if you let odds determine which horse to bet or not bet because of odds then you are letting the public Determine your Selection. I love it when I hear on tv " I'm looking for a value play " that's so dumb. Pic the horse you capped and bet it. If odds are screwy. Then adjust your Bet amount or bet it horizontally. All winners have value. And yes you're correct about passing on a race if you are unsure. Peace out

Yes...all WINNERS have value. But, when we select them, they aren't yet "winners"...they only have the winning "potential". And I submit that all the win-contenders DON'T have value.

Nitro
10-18-2016, 02:48 PM
How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)Vic I enjoyed your post, but I’m really surprised that a person with your background and involvement in the game chooses to make the same rhetorical errors that so many of the talking heads on horse racing broadcasts make. You know dam well that the betting population is made up of more than the general public (Outsiders)! And when the favorite losses who do suppose is making money? Yet, there’s always the possibility that on occasion a favorite is also being backed by Insider action.

I believe that the real reason a true description of the betting population is never publicized is because those using the term “betting public” want you to think that all the money going into the betting pools is from your typical $2 - $20 bettor gathering information from the PP data. I believe it’s a concerted effort to make people believe that they should have no problem competing with bettors in the same position they're in. How convenient!

thaskalos
10-18-2016, 02:59 PM
The betting "public" is actually wrong 6.5 times out of 10...and their 35% winning rate shouldn't be turned into an indictment against them. No single handicapper can select 35% winners when playing every single race out there.

It is a wonderful testament to the competence of the betting "public" that some of our game's most famous handicapping authors now find themselves FISHING instead of betting the horses.

whisperlunch
10-18-2016, 03:05 PM
Vic heck maybe I don't understand what our disagreement is. This topic started about odds of a horse when handicapping and what people thought. Okay. When I'm betting a race and I find the horse I think will win or run in a key spot I do not toss him based on what the tote says. I may bet more on the horse or I may bet less on the horse because of the odds and - or like you stated maybe just pass on the race. So. If it's you - and you really like the 3 but the 3is 6/5 do you pass because it's to chalky? If the 3 is 25-1 do you pass because it's too High and you wonder what's wrong? I'm curious. Not trying to sound cheesy but you have tons more experience and won big scores in tournaments. I'm just tying to pick your brain

BELMONT 6-6-09
10-18-2016, 04:41 PM
My buddy ran a years worth of races thru his DB and found 95.71% of the races were won by horses 10-1 or less

The ATM survey was 9/1 odds and less, not 10/1, but the same ball park figure.

Poindexter
10-18-2016, 05:01 PM
How much does a horses previous odds play into your handicapping? I know Tom Worth has sevarl Tips based on odds. Walt Owens in the Odds Have It like a horses best 3/4 odds to be 20 or less In the Yeast program there's an odds performance #
I knew there was a whole method on odds" Pops"
I believe years ago I read a stat that 90% of all races were won by a horse who's odds were 10-1 or less
Also do you automatically toss high ML horses?
Like to hear anybody's thoughts on he subject

I believe your question has to do with what a horses odds were in previous races and then came the bold portion which seems to indicate you are wondering about today's odds and morning line odds.

I will take on each separately. A horses odds in a prior races is definitely part of the handicapping process. A horse goes off at 3-1 in a 16 claimer and drops to a $10,000 claimer deserves a lot more respect than a horse that went off at 52-1 in that same 16 claimer. Obviously as a capper you are more focused on what a horse did, but the fact that he was respected rather than not respected by the betting public that day adds information to the puzzle.

Regarding Morning line, it depends on the morning line capper. As a capper you have to gauge how much respect the morning line capper for each track deserves. That being said, for the most part I am about my opinion and not overly concerned about the morning line cappers opinion.

Regarding actual odds, I think you can drive yourself crazy trying to figure out who is dead on the board. Live is a little easier. I have evolved to the point where I create my own odds line, blend it with the public odds (giving extra weight to the horses who are overbet-because the public unfortunately is not stupid) calculate a new line(spreadsheet of course) and play the horse(s) who offer value. Ideally I will have one horse who offers sufficient value and that is my play. If I have multiple contenders(more than 2) that are still value, I likely am WRONG and have a bad line. This method works for me, but warning the losing streaks can be long(been on a bad streak since Del Mar(fortunately I have hit some pick 4's and pick 5's in the meantime). Unfortunately within that envelope of value horses are horses that may not be well intentioned or have seen an abrupt negative form reversal since there last start..............But the hope is that the payout on the value horses exceeds the losses on the losers. Value horses were a winner for me last year and have been a winner for me this year. Sample size is still way too small to form any definitive conclusions, but thus far I am happy with the process. Hit rates seems to be within expectation of blended line(not my actual line).

whisperlunch
10-18-2016, 05:32 PM
How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.

Poindexter
10-18-2016, 06:56 PM
How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.

You are right, we do not know where the money is coming from. But I think Nitro's point is that as a rule their is some pretty sharp money in the pools(whether it is barn money, clockers, whales, cappers, physicality cappers....) and his methodology for reading the tote board is able to detect a lot of this money. He seems happy with his results that this is has become his way of attacking the races. Obviously his supposed success has shaped in his mind that the way of beating the races is to focus on the sharp money. I can tell you from my results, while I focus on value, the overbet horses (mainly the lower odds ones-and believe me I would much rather tell you otherwise) are typically somewhere in the superfecta. So while you are right about the fact we do not know who is betting and why, the public money as a whole does seem to have much predictive value.

Lets pretend that you really like a horse but after evaluating the competition you think he has about a 33% chance of winning. What rational reason would you have for betting the horse at 4/5. If he is 4/5, there is no question that you underestimated his chances of winning at 33%. Worse case scenario is he would have a 40 to 45% chance of winning. Lets be truly optimistic and say he has a 50% chance of winning. 50% chance of winning at a $3.60 payoff means that for every $2.00 you bet you get back $1.80 or you lose 10% on the dollar. That is being optimistic and assuming the horse has a 50% chance of winning when you gave him a 33% chance of winning. There is nothing rational about betting the horse at 4/5.

Now your argument about keying him in a pick 4 or pick 5 is not an empty one. Singles are valuable in these bets. But then again, would you not be more comfortable singling a horse you make 6/5 at 4/5 rather than a horse you make 2-1 at 4/5. The horse may very well win, but, I believe in the long run you will do much better singling horses much closer to your projected line(opinion). Any horse can lose. We see it almost every day. In other words there may be a better single later in the sequence or the next day ......
On the other hand, maybe they are giving out a $200,000 carryover, you need a single and this is the best choice. In this case I might bite, but in most instances there are much better wagers and it is better to sit it out or look elsewhere for value using this horse over the value horse in the exotics for protection only.

Whosonfirst
10-18-2016, 06:56 PM
This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)
VJ, I'm saving this post to my files to read as a good reminder. It's great IMHO. I hate to admit, that I've done just the opposite at times. Picked the best horse, and the public's poor opinion of him caused me to reduce my bet, but never get off. And the opposite, thought I picked a good horse, and he's bet down, and the public's opinion agreeing with me gave me extra confidence. Thanks Whosonfirst

BELMONT 6-6-09
10-18-2016, 07:21 PM
This statement couldn't possibly be more incorrect.

The ONLY thing that matters on a horse is the price.

Take any race any day. Pick any horse that has a reasonable chance at finishing 1st.

If he's 6/5 I'll give you a 15 minute speech as to why he's the worst bet in the history of horse racing.

If he's 6-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's probably about proper at that price.

If he's 20-1 I'll give you 15 minutes as to why he's the single greatest bet in the history of pari-mutual wagering.

Everything is exactly the same in all three scenarios.

Same: Track, PP's, jockey, trainer, race shape, distance, post and on and on.

What's changed? One thing and one thing ONLY. His price. Period.

This game has NOTHING to do with picking winners or cashing bets. This game is about making money.

And the only way to do that is to consistently over and over and over again make the correct bet.

If you're doing that individual race results actually become irrelevant. And I'm not saying meaningless. I'm saying bad rides, good rides, good luck or bad luck, DQ's or As is will become a wash over the course of time.

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

Many good points in your posting. Playing the game for over 40 years I believe what separates the good players from the losers is the ability to handle the inevitable losing runs (and dreaded extended runs) with the same businesslike attitude simply playing your game when your recordkeeping shows the losing run is all a part of your past betting history.

Now in reference to the 9/1 maximum for percentage betting a good player like you stated bets more when he perceives a greater advantage, that's the key in my opinion. The others lower their bet amount when the odds are higher.

Dave Schwartz
10-18-2016, 07:56 PM
Vic,

Post #12...

That was one AWESOME post!

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

v j stauffer
10-18-2016, 08:26 PM
Vic heck maybe I don't understand what our disagreement is. This topic started about odds of a horse when handicapping and what people thought. Okay. When I'm betting a race and I find the horse I think will win or run in a key spot I do not toss him based on what the tote says. I may bet more on the horse or I may bet less on the horse because of the odds and - or like you stated maybe just pass on the race. So. If it's you - and you really like the 3 but the 3is 6/5 do you pass because it's to chalky? If the 3 is 25-1 do you pass because it's too High and you wonder what's wrong? I'm curious. Not trying to sound cheesy but you have tons more experience and won big scores in tournaments. I'm just tying to pick your brain

I pass when he's 6/5 and IMO opinion too chalky. Unless on the very rare occasion I think 6/5 is actually an overlay.

When he's 25-1 I know this is a time when I can make a score which will carry me through many races when the horse I like doesn't run a lick.

Thask's point about assuming it's a forgone conclusion the horse we like will always win. Therefore making the only decision being price worthiness. Many horses we like will not win. I make my plays in such a manner that I don't have to be right very often.

Again. It's not picking the winner or even showing your buddies you cashed again. It's about trying to show a profit over an extended period of time. Days, months, years.

Nothing fancy, nothing glamourous, simply a lot of very hard work. Discipline, patience and expertise will always carry the day over those without the same ethic. Eventually you'll wear them and the takeout down and grind out a few bucks. Or not.

whisperlunch
10-18-2016, 08:35 PM
Thanks for reply Vic. Hey Dave not sure what your post means please clarify

Maximillion
10-18-2016, 08:42 PM
If a horse went off at huge odds in its last race...Id be more inclined to be very forgiving or maybe skip it altogether(if it was bad) when trying to evaluate him.

TheOracle
10-18-2016, 08:59 PM
....

I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. At some point you have to say. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money.

People who have no chance are the one's who are not strong enough to pass on that horse regardless of the result. To let him win by his 56 lengths shrug it off and move on to the next race.

How many times have you seen a person handicap a race. Look up and see the horse is 34-1 and say.......nah that's crazy nobody thinks he has a chance? Then either pass or reduce the bet? That thinking couldn't be more incorrect. In fact when you see that you should INCREASE the size of your wager. Trust your analysis and hard work. Don't be influenced by the public. What's the one incontrovertible thing we know about the public? One thing that's never changed in a 150 years of horse betting? It's the public has proven they don't have the first foggiest ****ing clue what's going to happen. They're wrong 7 out of 10 times. Anytime you find yourself agreeing with them. Either go back and look again or pass and find a race you're sure they're wrong.

To use a poker analogy, it's like the guy that mentally can't deal with being bluffed so therefore he becomes a calling station. Looking up every hand because he doesn't have the backbone to deal with the reality that sometimes we must lay down the best hand.

Bottom line. When it's your turn at the window. Or time to hit submit bet. Ask yourself this question. Do I have a VERY good reason to do what I'm about to do. If the answer isn't HELL YES. Get the f*** out of line.

( For our more sophisticated players I know this is very basic stuff. Before you start with the crap. Understand this post was meant to respond to a new contributor. 8 posts and others who might be just starting out)

Hey VJ

Great post and I have to say that the point you make here:
'I don't care if you think a horse is the single biggest cinch to ever look through a bridle. I don't care if he wins by 56 lengths I'm not taking that price. God forbid you don't bet more money. '

Takes quite a bit of self control and it is extremely difficult sometimes to not give in to the temptation of following a heavy favorite.

As a case in point I'm just looking at a very small sample of the Morning Line Favorites at Belmont that start with 1 (i.e. 1-1, 1-2, ,,, 1-9 etc.) you would think that although this is the odds makers guess the horse would be the 'logical' choice to win the race.

It's a good guess that these end up being the actual favorite in the race and it's extremely difficult to layoff them especially if you see that they happen to be winning way more than 30% for a short period of time as can be seen here:


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelhvy.jpg

The Morning Line Favorites starting with 1 was at one point winning at a rate of 87% from June 27th 2015 to May 21st 2016 at Belmont.

The casual fan might look at the last two of these that won on the same day on May 21st 2016 and decide that the next time it happens to bet heavily on these type of favorites and they become very tempting.


However, as can be seen here:

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/mlfavsbelbrnd.jpg

The heavy odds on favorites took quite a beating from June 12th 2016 to July 9th 2016 at Belmont. The overwhelming "logical" choices went 0 for 5 with one completely off the board.

I'm sure the casual fan as well as many others got burned during the days leading up to the July 4th weekend and even afterwards if they thought they were going to make some 'easy' money.

It is a discipline that is not easy to maintain

EMD4ME
10-18-2016, 09:22 PM
I pass when he's 6/5 and IMO opinion too chalky. Unless on the very rare occasion I think 6/5 is actually an overlay.

When he's 25-1 I know this is a time when I can make a score which will carry me through many races when the horse I like doesn't run a lick.

Thask's point about assuming it's a forgone conclusion the horse we like will always win. Therefore making the only decision being price worthiness. Many horses we like will not win. I make my plays in such a manner that I don't have to be right very often.

Again. It's not picking the winner or even showing your buddies you cashed again. It's about trying to show a profit over an extended period of time. Days, months, years.

Nothing fancy, nothing glamourous, simply a lot of very hard work. Discipline, patience and expertise will always carry the day over those without the same ethic. Eventually you'll wear them and the takeout down and grind out a few bucks. Or not.


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Most players I know are lazy, that's why I avoid the crap out of everyone when I'm at the track.

You're words are very true. Hard work, patience, discipline are vital. Last comes some talent.

Thankfully, 99.999% of the people I see at racetracks don't have ALL of the above. How do I know, I simply listen to their ill formed thoughts.

traynor
10-18-2016, 09:34 PM
There is a relatively direct relationship between odds in the last race, odds in the second race back, and probability of winning. All the normal caveats apply--class, distance, surface, blah blah. Bottom line is that a horse with low odds in its last race or two is "more likely" to win than a horse with high odds in its last race or two.

The difficulty is that the "more likely" is based--as many, many other things in racing--on averages. Those averages actually tell you zilch about what this horse is going to do in this race today. Over thousands of races impressive average values can be generated that "seem to indicate" what a horse should or should not do today. Many are complete nonsense.

rsetup
10-18-2016, 10:05 PM
It is a wonderful testament to the competence of the betting "public" that some of our game's most famous handicapping authors now find themselves FISHING instead of betting the horses.

Blind trying to lead the blind.

Nitro
10-18-2016, 10:58 PM
How does anyone know who's behind the money being Wagered on a horse ? Is it connection money? Rich owner ? Some trust fund baby taking a shot? Or maybe the power ball lotto winner hanging out at mountaineer laying down big money. No way to know so how can you let odds get you on or off? I have a friend who tries to handicap the handicapper wtf? Just pick the horse that fits your eye by using pp's and Dismiss the odds. Think of the times you loved a horse but no one was betting it and you said forget it only to have the 24-1 horse wire the field. Or the 4/5 that won with bombs under to pay huge on tri. I repeat don't let odds get you on or off. Let odds dictate bet amount bet or exotics.
You must be joking! Apparently you really don’t get it. But I’ll give you a hint. Why would you suppose that someone might be betting a lot of money on one or more horses in any racing event? Are they doing it to bolster their ego, or their bankroll? Yes my friend there is a motive. I’m not going to go into all the psychological details of successful betting. But believe it or not there is a small segment of the betting population that knows how to make winning plays – consistently.

The problem that you and the majority of so-called handicappers have is that you’re wearing blinkers when it comes to viewing the tote board. All you see are the ODDS! Well guess what? All that reflects is the action in single pool – the Win pool. All these discussions about ODDS are meaningless and quite honestly a moot point unless you understand the relationship between each of the mutual pools and the available exotic betting pools as step 1. Then as Step 2 you have to be able to observe the significance of various betting patterns of each entry within the context of the overall betting. And finally you have to know when during a typical betting cycle these betting patterns are the most relevant. Why, because all of this comes back to the human psyche, and the fact that we a creatures of habit. When a successful person with basic intelligence and motivation has something that works well for them, they’re going to continue to use it without alteration.

ReplayRandall
10-19-2016, 12:15 AM
When a successful person with basic intelligence and motivation has something that works well for them, they’re going to continue to use it without alteration.

And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.

whisperlunch
10-19-2016, 12:31 AM
Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck

v j stauffer
10-19-2016, 12:36 AM
Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck

13 posts and everybody is full of bullshit and you have the answers. Seems reasonable to me.

Go get em :ThmbUp:

v j stauffer
10-19-2016, 12:37 AM
And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.

Ain't that a beautiful thing. :)

whisperlunch
10-19-2016, 01:01 AM
Vic yes or no- do you think a horse knows he is 6/5 or 20-1? Okay that was a joke. Seriously do you think a horses odds in drf pp's or currently on the tote with 5mtp has any real influence on how the horse runs? Be serious. If you answer yes please explain. Finally what does my 12 posts have to do with anything ?

Nitro
10-19-2016, 01:05 AM
And how long do you think "something that works well for them" lasts, before an alteration is required?.....The game is constantly changing, in a never ending state of flux.You’ve raised a valid point though be it from a handicapper’s perspective. From that point of view not only do they encounter issues long term, but having personally experienced it myself I will say that even short term the handicapper will run into situations where they are taking gratuitous risks. In my estimation the only way around that is to become highly specialized by playing particular races (with conditions) that provide a proven record of success.

Fortunately there are other vantage points for reaping the benefits of what this game has to offer. Those who are opportunistic enough to realize what they’ve got just basically go with the flow no matter how the game might change for others. Their sources of information and evaluations during the selection process may vary from time to time, but the betting side of their game never really changes. As far as I’m concerned that’s the most significant part of this game from any standpoint.

Nitro
10-19-2016, 01:26 AM
Nitro what the hell was that? Come again. So in each race that's 20 minutes apart you can analyze betting patterns in the win pl show pools and decipher exacta tris superfecta patterns by studying the tote pools. You guys are so full of bullshit. I swear it's the funniest thread I've read in a long time. You guys keep thinking about the odds when picking your horses. Oh and yes it's about picking winners ---best of luck
Thank you for admitting that you really don't get it!
And yes the tote analysis I use does that and more in less than 20 minutes.
Here's a recent example at Keeneland the other day:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133907&page=1

You see your ignorance lies in the perception that it's all about the horses and not with those who care for, train, and run them in certain races with specific intentions. The next time you look at the form see if you can figure out who's trying to win the race and who's not. Or are you also among those believe that every horse entered is trying to win?

PaceAdvantage
10-19-2016, 04:15 PM
Vic yes or no- do you think a horse knows he is 6/5 or 20-1? Okay that was a joke. Seriously do you think a horses odds in drf pp's or currently on the tote with 5mtp has any real influence on how the horse runs? Be serious. If you answer yes please explain. Finally what does my 12 posts have to do with anything ?I've played with analyzing the tote, and I believe there is something to be gained from it...even just solely the tote action.

Somebody smarter than myself (and there are a lot of you out there), I'm sure, has taken it to levels you and I haven't even thought of and is raking in a lot of money because of it...

You need to keep an open mind...

classhandicapper
10-19-2016, 11:36 PM
There is a relatively direct relationship between odds in the last race, odds in the second race back, and probability of winning. All the normal caveats apply--class, distance, surface, blah blah. Bottom line is that a horse with low odds in its last race or two is "more likely" to win than a horse with high odds in its last race or two.

The difficulty is that the "more likely" is based--as many, many other things in racing--on averages. Those averages actually tell you zilch about what this horse is going to do in this race today. Over thousands of races impressive average values can be generated that "seem to indicate" what a horse should or should not do today. Many are complete nonsense.

I consider a horse's odds in his previous race (assuming he was spotted in a similar race) as a proxy for his recent overall record.

If 2 horse look almost identical off their last race and one was 2-1 and the other 35-1, that's usually telling you that the former has a better overall record and would be more likely to win today even though they ran similar races last time.

Personally, I'd rather evaluate his entire record on my own, but I guess prior odds are a reasonable lazy man's way of doing it.

One area where prior odds can sometimes help is 2nd time starters.

Poindexter
10-20-2016, 12:27 AM
I am not a database guy, but one thing I notice happen with some regularity is for a horse to run big at big odds, come back against similar, pay big odds (something like 8 or 10-1 this time while he was 20 to 40-1 the time before) again and fail to get the job done. The big effort seems to be an aberration an the public seems to know he won't duplicate the effort.

ultracapper
10-20-2016, 01:24 AM
The relationship between odds and connections must be considered in any use. 5/1 on Mr. Lowwinpercentage and 5/1 on Mr. Baffert are two different things.

CosmicWon
10-20-2016, 03:05 AM
Odds is what they is. If you like a horse and she's above your fair value odds perception, then bet her. If you lose, meh, you'll make it up the next time as long as you don't chase. Neve chase. That's undisciplined.

Also, never don't bet the longshot if it intrigues you. What's a few WPS on a 33-1 if you lose...guaranteed it doesn't hurt nearly as bad as seeing that same horse win and you got nada on her. #insanityinsurance

Thing about odds is it's they reflect the perceptions of other people, and I trust myself more than I trust the crowd. Bet who you like and let the rest out there fend for themselves. Most of the time they are just as clueless if not more so that you.

I do though like to look at the odds of "outsider" but competitive horses in a race. For instance, Zapperkat--while she's now declared out of Bc Juvy Fillies, I couldn't help but notice she was the favorite in the Chandelier while being 12s in her maiden win first out.

Being reminded that she was so low in the Chandelier made me really reevaluate what I was perceiving in that race. Is Noted and Quoted really that good or did she take advantage of the 2-3 horses in there being well-fancied but a bit late in fitness?

In that same vein, fwiw I think With Honors ran terrific in there considering her sire is anemic with dirt horses and she got G1P in her first dirt start after already being SW on turf. That filly has legit ability and could be 8 or 10-1 on BC Sat.

pandy
10-20-2016, 08:25 AM
Vic's posts here are very good...

The original question also asked if you consider what odds a horse went off at in prior starts. I do, particularly with shippers. For instance, I handicap NYRA every day. Say a horse ships in from Parx, a circuit that I don't follow that closely. So, let's say that the horse is entered for a $30,000 tag today and was entered for the same tag at Parx, and it was a 10 horse field. Say that the horse has been racing in good form, with competitive figures, and won for $25,000 two back, but went off at 18-1 odds last time. What does that tell you? It tells you that it was probably a tough field...or, in the "public's" mind it was a tough field because the horse went off at 18-1, even though it was coming off a win and showed good form. Now it could have been that there was a 2-5 shot in the race, or, that it was a very competitive field with several sharp horses that took money. It would require further research to find out more, but generally speaking, the odds that a horse has been going off at can provide some idea of what kind of competition it's been facing.

whodoyoulike
10-20-2016, 05:26 PM
Odds is what they is. If you like a horse and she's above your fair value odds perception, then bet her. ...

"Thing about odds is it's they reflect the perceptions of other people, and I trust myself more than I trust the crowd. Bet who DO you like and let the rest out there fend for themselves. Most of the time they are just as clueless if not more so that you."

You make some good points. Btw, I fixed the above sentence for you.

whisperlunch
10-20-2016, 05:51 PM
amen smart person you is "Mr. whodoyoulike"

EMD4ME
10-20-2016, 06:38 PM
amen smart person you is "Mr. whodoyoulike"

He who alleges cheating is a cheater themselves.....


He always says : maybe you didn't comprehend what I wrote.

Man has some obsession with proving he can read and write..

Wow, just wow

whodoyoulike
10-20-2016, 07:43 PM
He who alleges cheating is a cheater themselves.....


He always says : maybe you didn't comprehend what I wrote.

Man has some obsession with proving he can read and write..

Wow, just wow

Is this what you got out of my post?

Again, I don't think you've comprehended anything. It's not like I search out your incoherent posts. You repeatedly disrupt the thread topics because you really don't understand. Apparently, you can write but that's about it.

EMD4ME
10-20-2016, 08:02 PM
Is this what you got out of my post?

Again, I don't think you've comprehended anything. It's not like I search out your incoherent posts. You repeatedly disrupt the thread topics because you really don't understand. Apparently, you can write but that's about it.

1) Wrong-you failed to comprehend an obvious analysis by analogy.

2) Wrong-I was replying to a poster's reply to your post. Completely relevant.

3) My blind son, you wouldn't & couldn't recognize horse racing greatness if it shined bright into new found vision.

Carry on and please do me a favor, I want you to start wagering more money into NYRA, Emerald, Portland and Sam Houston ;)

Carry on with your contributions :sleeping: to us.

whisperlunch
10-21-2016, 12:34 AM
Whodoyoulike is spot on. I was trying to be funny.

davew
10-21-2016, 01:05 AM
I like to follow maidens that were very well bet on first out, but did not win.

whodoyoulike
10-21-2016, 01:16 AM
1) Wrong-you failed to comprehend an obvious analysis by analogy.

2) Wrong-I was replying to a poster's reply to your post. Completely relevant.

3) My blind son, you wouldn't & couldn't recognize horse racing greatness if it shined bright into new found vision.

Carry on and please do me a favor, I want you to start wagering more money into NYRA, Emerald, Portland and Sam Houston ;)

Carry on with your contributions :sleeping: to us.

:1: Is this really an example of an analogy because I obviously have a different understanding of analogy?

:2: This is just an example of passive - aggressive behavior which you seem to do all the time.

:3: This is just another example of your bull crap.