HONG KONG / ShaTin - SUN 10/16

[Nitro]

It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with nice sized fields in ALL 11 races
(2 on the All Weather Dirt & 9 on Turf)

Post Time: Race #1 – 12:30 AM SUN EST

TVG is offering live video for the first 7 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here: (Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I'll return with my early selections shortly.

GL if you’re playing!

[Robert Fischer]

Good luck

[Nitro]

Good luck
Thank you Robert!
I sort of feel some additional pressure this morning after posting the summary of the Dutching success over the last 7 race days. My goal is to hit every race.

[Nitro]

I’m not going to be posting any live selections at Hong Kong this morning.

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race.
Later on the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that cause Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW the Top 3 picks have been producing some nice Dutch Win returns. Dutching Summary here:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133995&page=1

There are at least 4 very competitive races this morning: R6 – R8 – R10 – R11
Good Luck today!

R#1 -1000M (5F) Turf.........1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10 .......12:30 AM EST
(Half of this field of 12 are 1st time starters!!)

R#2 - 1600M (8F) Turf.........1-3 W/ 2-4-10-14 …....1:00 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 10)

R#3 - 1400M (7F) Turf.........2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5.......1:30 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 5)

R#4 - 1200M (7F) AWD.........1-5 W/ 4-2-12-9…….2:00 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 10)

R#5 - 1400M (7F) Turf..........1-2 W/ 7-9-4-6........2:30 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 6)

R#6 - 1600M (8F) Turf..........2-7 W/ 6-1-8-11-3…..3:00 AM EST
(I’ll be paying special attention on No. – 3 - a 1st time starter)

R#7 - 1800M (9F) Turf..........1-2 W/ 3-8-4-6........3:35 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 12)

R#8 -1200M (6F) AWD..........2-3 W/ 8-9-10-1 ….....4:05 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. - 11)

R#9 - 1400M (7F) Turf...........3-2 W/ 7-4-8-9..........4:35 AM EST
(Also watching tote action on No. – 6)

R#10 - 1000M (5F) Turf.........3-2 W/ 1-5-9-4-7........5:10 AM EST

R#11 - 1400M (7F) Turf...........2-9 W/ 1-4-7-8-5........5:45 AM EST
(If #2 Pakistan Star falters there could be some huge payoffs!)

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly after inputting the odds of the selected entries:
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Profit in $ and %
(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[CincyHorseplayer]

Our occasionally conflictive discussions have been fruitful brother. Good luck! You gonna do the BC so we can compare notes?

[Nitro]

Our occasionally conflictive discussions have been fruitful brother. Good luck! You gonna do the BC so we can compare notes?
No worries. All in good fun! Nothing like a spirited discussion.
I'll definitely be doing the BC races! I really enjoy those big fields.

[Nitro]

R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10.............. Results: 4-7-11-3 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 4 ( 3.2/1 ) – 7 ( 4.8/1 ) - $30.00 – $30.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 3.2 4.8 BET PRF
$8 $8 $12
$24 $22 $16 $60 $30 50%
$90 $90 $90
1 down & 10 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#2 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-10-14................... Results: 3-1-14-5 (2nd choice, Quin & Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 3 ( 4.3/1 ) –2 ( 9.6/1 ) - $58.00 – $88.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 4.3 9.6 BET PRF
$7 $11 $21
$42 $26 $14 $82 $58 71%
$140 $140 $140
2 for 2 down & 9 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#3 - 2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5............. Results: 8-11-2-6 (3rd choice – ALL of that one!)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.6/1 ) –1 ( 39/1 ) – 8 ( 11/1 ) - $177.00 – $265.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 11.0 39.0 BET PRF
$7 $24 $80
$80 $24 $7 $111 $177 159%
$288 $288 $288
3 for 3 down & 8 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#4 - 1-5 W/ 4-2-12-9......... Results: 1 -5-4-7 (Top choice & Tri COLD - $167.40!)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.4/1 ) – 5 ( 4.5/1 ) – 4 ( 6.4/1 ) - $80.00 – $345.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.4 4.5 6.4 BET PRF
$11 $11 $15
$30 $30 $22 $82 $80 98%
$162 $162 $162
4 for 4 down & 7 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 7-9-4-6......... Results: 9-3-10-7 (4th choice w/good late action moved up Live - replaced #2)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 2 ( 42/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - ($73.00) – $272.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.7 42.0 BET PRF
$8 $13 $86
$44 $25 $4 $73 $99 135%
$172 $172 $172
4 for 5 down & 6 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#6 - 2-7 W/ 6-1-8-11-3.......Results: 8-2-7-3 (5th choice – Quin $64.40 & Tri Bx $510.40!)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.1/1 ) – 7 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) - ($62.00) – $210.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 6.1 7.1 BET PRF
$7 $14 $16
$32 $16 $14 $62 $46 75%
$108 $108 $108
4 for 6 down & 5 to GO!

[kevb]

R7:

Can KK wire 'em at 60-1? We'll soon find out.

WP 9

[kevb]

Oops

WP 11

[Nitro]

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 3-8-4-6……….Results: 2 -8-14-3 (2nd choice & Quin $116.80)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.2/1 ) – 2 ( 12/1 ) – 3 ( 8.8/1 ) - $170.00 – $380.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 8.8 12.0 BET PRF
$10 $20 $26
$52 $28 $20 $100 $170 170%
$270 $270 $270

5 for 7 down & 4 to GO!
Considering our O.A. 54% hit % w/Early picks, this might be a good time to slow it down or stop.

[formula_2002]

R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10.............. Results: 4-7-11-3 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 4 ( 3.2/1 ) – 7 ( 4.8/1 ) - $30.00 – $30.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 3.2 4.8 BET PRF
$8 $8 $12
$24 $22 $16 $60 $30 50%
$90 $90 $90
1 down & 10 to GO!
Nitro, how much did you bet on the winner #4 that returned $6.50 for a $2 bet

[Nitro]

R#8 - 2-3 W/ 8-9-10-1............ Results: 8-9-3-11 (3rd choice – Tri Bx $140.20)
Dutch – 2 ( 9.7/1 ) – 3 ( 3.9/1 ) – 8 ( 4.6/1 ) - $110.00 – $490.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.9 4.6 9.7 BET PRF
$10 $11 $21
$42 $38 $20 $100 $110 110%
$210 $210 $210

6 for 8 down & 3 to GO!

[Nitro]

Nitro, how much did you bet on the winner #4 that returned $6.50 for a $2 bet
A lot more than what my basic Dutch Win bet chart showed. The monetary posting is simply a starting point for illustrating the power of betting in HK this way. I'm also playing Quinellas & Triples.

[Nitro]

R#9 - 3-2 W/ 7-4-8-9.......... Results: 2 -9-12-8 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 3 ( 5.1/1 ) – 2 ( 3.5/1 ) – 7 ( 17/1 ) - $90.00 – $580.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 5.1 17.0 BET PRF
$9 $12 $36
$36 $27 $9 $72 $90 126%
$162 $162 $162
7 for 9 down & 2 to GO!

[Nitro]

R#10 - 3-2 W/ 1-5-9-4-7......... Results: 9-2-5-8 (5th choice – Quin & Tri Bx)
Dutch – 3 ( 42/1 ) –2 ( 4.5/1 ) – 1 ( 18/1 ) - ($60.00) – $520.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.5 18.0 42.0 BET PRF
$11 $38 $86
$43 $12 $5 $60 $177 294%
$237 $228 $215
7 for 10 down & 1 to GO!

[kevb]

R11:

Highly anticipated race. It will be a treat to watch.

TRI :2: :3: / :2::3: :4: :7: :9: :12: / ALL

[Nitro]

R#11 - 2-9 W/ 1-4-7-8-5......... Results: 2-9-3-1 (1st choice & Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.6/1 ) –9 ( 1.4/1 ) – 1 ( 54/1 ) - $114.00 – $634.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.4 6.6 54.0 BET PRF
$5 $15 $110
$110 $35 $5 $150 $114 77%
$264 $264 $264
8 out of 11 Dutch hits on the card from the Early picks!
What a day of racing! Hope you made some money too.

[formula_2002]

A lot more than what my basic Dutch Win bet chart showed. The monetary posting is simply a starting point for illustrating the power of betting in HK this way. I'm also playing Quinellas & Triples.
I was referring to the bet amounts indicated in the chart
The track win pay out was $3.25 on the dollar
if you use the largest, $24 bet size, the return would be $78.
per the chart, the total bet was $60.

That would result in a $18 profit if you dutched the three horses.

[Nitro]

Summary:

If someone decided to play Dutch Win bets using the Top 3 early picks these were the overall results:

R#1 - 1-4 W/ 7-5-9-10.............. Results: 4-7-11-3 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 4 ( 3.2/1 ) – 7 ( 4.8/1 ) - $30.00 – $30.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 3.2 4.8 BET PRF
$8 $8 $12
$24 $22 $16 $60 $30 50%
$90 $90 $90

R#2 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-10-14................... Results: 3-1-14-5 (2nd choice, Quin & Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 3 ( 4.3/1 ) –2 ( 9.6/1 ) - $58.00 – $88.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 4.3 9.6 BET PRF
$7 $11 $21
$42 $26 $14 $82 $58 71%
$140 $140 $140

R#3 - 2-1 W/ 8-11-6-5............. Results: 8-11-2-6 (3rd choice – ALL of that one!)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.6/1 ) –1 ( 39/1 ) – 8 ( 11/1 ) - $177.00 – $265.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 11.0 39.0 BET PRF
$7 $24 $80
$80 $24 $7 $111 $177 159%
$288 $288 $288

R#4 - 1-5 W/ 4-2-12-9......... Results: 1 -5-4-7 (Top choice & Tri COLD)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.4/1 ) – 5 ( 4.5/1 ) – 4 ( 6.4/1 ) - $80.00 – $345.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.4 4.5 6.4 BET PRF
$11 $11 $15
$30 $30 $22 $82 $80 98%
$162 $162 $162

R#5 - 1-2 W/ 7-9-4-6......... Results: 9-3-10-7 (4th choice w/good late action moved up Live)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.9/1 ) – 2 ( 42/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - ($73.00) – $272.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.7 42.0 BET PRF
$8 $13 $86
$44 $25 $4 $73 $99 135%
$172 $172 $172

R#6 - 2-7 W/ 6-1-8-11-3.......Results: 8-2-7-3 (5th choice – Quin $64.40 & Tri Bx $510.40!)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.1/1 ) – 7 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.1/1 ) - ($62.00) – $210.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.3 6.1 7.1 BET PRF
$7 $14 $16
$32 $16 $14 $62 $46 75%
$108 $108 $108

R#7 - 1-2 W/ 3-8-4-6……….Results: 2 -8-14-3 (2nd choice & Quin $116.80)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.2/1 ) – 2 ( 12/1 ) – 3 ( 8.8/1 ) - $170.00 – $380.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 8.8 12.0 BET PRF
$10 $20 $26
$52 $28 $20 $100 $170 170%
$270 $270 $270

R#8 - 2-3 W/ 8-9-10-1............ Results: 8-9-3-11 (3rd choice – Tri Bx $140.20)
Dutch – 2 ( 9.7/1 ) – 3 ( 3.9/1 ) – 8 ( 4.6/1 ) - $110.00 – $490.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.9 4.6 9.7 BET PRF
$10 $11 $21
$42 $38 $20 $100 $110 110%
$210 $210 $210

R#9 - 3-2 W/ 7-4-8-9.......... Results: [B] 2[ /B] -9-12-8 (2nd choice & Quin)
Dutch – 3 ( 5.1/1 ) – 2 ( 3.5/1 ) – 7 ( 17/1 ) - $90.00 – $580.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 5.1 17.0 BET PRF
$9 $12 $36
$36 $27 $9 $72 $90 126%
$162 $162 $162

R#10 - 3-2 W/ 1-5-9-4-7......... Results: 9-2-5-11 (5th choice – Quin & Tri Bx)
Dutch – 3 ( 42/1 ) –2 ( 4.5/1 ) – 1 ( 18/1 ) - ($60.00) – $520.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.5 18.0 42.0 BET PRF
$11 $38 $86
$43 $12 $5 $60 $177 294%
$237 $228 $215

R#11 - 2-9 W/ 1-4-7-8-5......... Results: 2-9-3-1 (1st choice & Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 6.6/1 ) –9 ( 1.4/1 ) – 1 ( 54/1 ) - $114.00 – $634.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.4 6.6 54.0 BET PRF
$5 $15 $110
$110 $35 $5 $150 $114 77%
$264 $264 $264

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 8 out of 11 races (73%) produced a hypothetical profit of $634 after betting $952 or a 67% profit margin.

You can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.
This game is NOT about picking Winners. It's ALL about making Winning plays.

Hope you made some money!

[formula_2002]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 8 out of 11 races (73%) produced a hypothetical profit of $634 after betting $952 or a 67% profit margin.

You can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.
This game is NOT about picking Winners. It's ALL about making Winning plays.

Hope you made some money!

Nitro, I can understand the "preliminary picks" process, but the odds indicated in the chart are the final odds, and the dutch size is based on those final odds.
Unless I wrong I'm sure you don't know he final odds before making the bet.?
can you tell us the dutch size you calculate prior to making the bet,


as a note, I just summed the book% using the1st race. It totaled 1.06 which equates to only a 5.66% Track take out

[Nitro]

This was done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 8 out of 11 races (73%) produced a hypothetical profit of $634 after betting $952 or a 67% profit margin.

You can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.
This game is NOT about picking Winners. It's ALL about making Winning plays.
Hope you made some money!

Nitro, I can understand the "preliminary picks" process, but the odds indicated in the chart are the final odds, and the dutch size is based on those final odds.
Unless I wrong I'm sure you don't know he final odds before making the bet.?
can you tell us the dutch size you calculate prior to making the bet,

as a note, I just summed the book% using the1st race. It totaled 1.06 which equates to only a 5.66% Track take outYou’re absolutely correct. The odds at 3mins to post (when I usually place my bets) can vary slightly – in both directions! So the profit margins I’m getting based on the final odds will also vary up or down, but because the size of the Win pool is always in the Millions of Dollars, it takes an awful lot of money to cause odds variations. That's another bonus when playing HK.

No offense, but I doubt very much that you understand the "process" I use to develop a Static Tote board analysis which can provide early selections with the odds value I've demonstrated in the last 74 races.

Also I realize there’s been a lot of discussion around here about track take-out. I personally don’t agree with any of the comments alluding to it being any sort of factor to consider. Why? Very simple! The track take-out is already removed from the betting pools before the odds or will pays are displayed. In other words, if my winning bet is on a 5/1 shot I know that the minimum return is $12.00. The return is NOT $12.00 less the track take-out.
How do I know this? I monitor the money movement in all off the betting pools continually.

[formula_2002]

I mean to say I understand the preliminary picks idea. i don't know how you make the selections.

the reason that the take out is important to me, especially in this case (about 5 to 6%) is the smaller the take out, the easier it is to get lucky. that's why i like craps, it's basically 50-50 game with a 1.41 vig.

the more success you have in higher vig games, the more impressive are the results. i don't minimize your success, it's just something to be aware of. most of us can pick the top three picks to total 75% of the pool, but few know how much to dutch the proper amounts and beat the takeout. to bet the correct amounts is to know the overlays. to think there are as many as three overlays in a race to me is a bit of a stretch.

continue gook luck ;)

[Nitro]

I mean to say I understand the preliminary picks idea. i don't know how you make the selections.

the reason that the take out is important to me, especially in this case (about 5 to 6%) is the smaller the take out, the easier it is to get lucky. that's why i like craps, it's basically 50-50 game with a 1.41 vig.

the more success you have in higher vig games, the more impressive are the results. i don't minimize your success, it's just something to be aware of. most of us can pick the top three picks to total 75% of the pool, but few know how much to dutch the proper amounts and beat the takeout. to bet the correct amounts is to know the overlays. to think there are as many as three overlays in a race to me is a bit of a stretch.

continue gook luck ;)Thanks Formula. You’re correct many players can certainly pick out 3 entries and the result will produce 1 winner. Unfortunately, in smaller fields (here in the States) when playing those 3 entries in a Dutch type win bet the combined odds will not be high enough (Profit Margin %) to maintain overall profitability. You would have to hit nearly every race.

For instance, here’s a typical example of the odds in a local race of let’s say 7 or 8 entries:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 2.5 4.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $10
$10 $7 $5 $23 $3 15%
$26 $26 $26
You’ll notice that the Profit Margin % is only 15% if one of these entries wins. That means in order to stay profitable you would have to have hit % of better than 85%!

Now as another example, I’ll take an average race in HK where the field sizes range from 10 to 14 entries.

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.4 4.5 6.4 BET PRF
$11 $11 $15
$15 $15 $11 $40 $40 100%
$80 $80 $80
You’ll notice that the Profit Margin % is 100% if one of these entries wins. That means because I’m hitting consistently over 50% of the time that I’ll remain profitable.

I have no idea why you’re referring to the term “overlay”. The live tote analysis I’m using presents betting patterns that point to specific entries that fall into specific relationships with all of the betting that’s going on at any given time during the betting cycle. These betting patterns have absolutely nothing to do with a comparison of odds which may or may not indicate some sort of an overlay.

[formula_2002]

I have no idea why you’re referring to the term “overlay”. The live tote analysis I’m using presents betting patterns that point to specific entries that fall into specific relationships with all of the betting that’s going on at any given time during the betting cycle. These betting patterns have absolutely nothing to do with a comparison of odds which may or may not indicate some sort of an overlay.

your methods are winning because you are discovering "overlays"
Your public is leaving value on the board.
If the final odds of all the horses are absolutely correct. you could not win.

You and I are going down similar paths, with me only working with 2 to 3 minuets to post time tote board figures.

I may be seeing some positive value when I think the public makes the favorite an overlay, so I bet the favorite, then there are times I suspect the public makes a false favorite, I'm reviewing my data to see how I can bet those races.

case in point, I'm looking at the 10-15-2016 Charles town race 4 where I consider the favorite over bet.

the final track fav odds is 1.10 to 1, 48% 0f the pool
the book % of that win pool is 1.22 (an 18% take out)
true win% on that fav calculates to 0.39%

Based on my data base of races, I think that fav will win only 30% of the time.
If correct, I have just lowered the book % to 1.05 (5% take out).

My 2 min to post time win% are different from the publics.

If I dutched all the horses except the fav based on track odds I loose 5%

If I ducth all the horses other than the fav based on my 2 min to post time odds I get the following returns for the remaining 5 horses
-10%, -7%, 12%, 50%, 6%

in the long term,for every $1 bet, I return a profit of 61 cents.

In this races the winner cost me a long term loss of 10%
More work is required.

hope the attached excel file helps explain the above

[Nitro]

your methods are winning because you are discovering "overlays"
Your public is leaving value on the board.
If the final odds of all the horses are absolutely correct. you could not win.

You and I are going down similar paths, with me only working with 2 to 3 minuets to post time tote board figures.

I may be seeing some positive value when I think the public makes the favorite an overlay, so I bet the favorite, then there are times I suspect the public makes a false favorite, I'm reviewing my data to see how I can bet those races.

case in point, I'm looking at the 10-15-2016 Charles town race 4 where I consider the favorite over bet.

hope the attached excel file helps explain the aboveI’m sorry Formula but I totally disagree with your leading comments. The public isn’t leaving any value on the board, because the term “public” is a total misnomer. The betting population is comprised of much more than just the general betting public. The only time the final odds are correct is when the favorite wins. It also follows that if they were absolutely perfect the finishing position of each entry would also follow the sequential order of their odds from top to bottom, which never happens.

Fortunately, in HK even if the favorite does win its odds are relatively higher due to the large field sizes. Dutching with the favorite doesn’t seem to be an issue either, because the odds on the other 2 selected entries are usually much higher as well.

We may be going down similar paths, but your attached example shows a race with only (6) entries. On face value I would never play a race like that! Personally I prefer fields of 8 or more, and in HK they’re anywhere from 10 to 14 on a regular basis. Bigger fields mean bigger potential value.

[formula_2002]

Fair enough, lets keep the data coming in, and in your case, the money too :)
best of luck