TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS_ VALUED PLAYS

[formula_2002]

OUT OF A 208 RACE DATA BASE, I'M SETTLING IN ON 37 RACES WHO'S FLAT BET ROI IS 1.90
THESE RACES HAVE A "COMPARISON BET SIZE" VALUE >=7
THEY HAVE A WIN RATE OF 65% AND $1 AVERAGE WIN BET PAYOUT OF $2.92

THERE ARE FLAT BET PROFITS IN BOTH THE PLACE AND SHOW POOLS

IN MY EXPERIENCE, A SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE JUDGED ON IT'S FLAT BET WIN RETURN
A SMALL BUT EXPERIENCED BET SELECTION :cool:
LETS SEE HOW IT GOES

[formula_2002]

ONE MORE THING
WHEN THE "COMPARISON BET SIZE" IS <3 THERE ARE 62 RACES, WIN POOL ROI IS .54, AVE $ PAYOUT IS $1.86, 29% WINNERS

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.73
"Woodbine T-bred
Race
1

Post
1:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,116 " =

the 1 is a bad bet

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.73
"Woodbine T-bred
Race
1

Post
1:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,116 " =

the 1 is a bad bet
0.65-1 favorite came in 2nd, 2nd choice won returning $4.8 on thr dollar

[formula_2002]

:8:


WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 8.83
"Delaware
Race
4

Post
2:37

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,543 " =

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 1.79
"Finger Lakes
Race
4

Post
2:42

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,884 " =


the 2 is a bad bet

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 1.79
"Finger Lakes
Race
4

Post
2:42

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,884 " =

the 2 is a bad bet


1-4 fav lost 3rd choice won returning $7.6 on the dollar

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.63
"Finger Lakes
Race
6

Post
3:48

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,645 " =


2 is a bad bet

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.63
"Finger Lakes
Race
6

Post
3:48

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,645 " =


2 is a bad bet

8-5 2 wins

[formula_2002]

:4:


WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 6.28
"Santa Anita
Race
2

Post
4:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$28,687 " =

[formula_2002]

:4: wins $1 bet returns $1.79

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.12
"Lone Star
Race
4

Post
8:55

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,965 " =


8 is a bad bet

[formula_2002]

exacta matrix excluding the 8 fro win position


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 ….. 14 4 8 4 4 ….. 37 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 71
2 16 ….. 16 20 12 10 ….. 58 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 130
3 6 15 ….. 8 13 5 ….. 28 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 74
4 12 20 10 ….. 10 12 ….. 71 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 135
5 3 10 13 8 ….. 3 ….. 29 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 66
6 6 6 5 12 2 ….. ….. 19 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 50
7 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
9 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
10 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
11 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
12 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
13 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
14 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
15 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
16 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
42.39 64.86 47.47 54.82 40.65 33.31 0.00 242.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 525.57

[formula_2002]

3-5 # 8 wins

[formula_2002]

5 is a bad win bet

exacta matrix w/o 5



"Remington
Race
3

Post
9:04

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,602 "
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 ….. 19 22 27 54 26 13 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 162
2 14 ….. 13 19 19 14 6 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 85
3 18 14 ….. 26 45 23 8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 134
4 22 21 26 ….. 48 29 8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 153
5 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
6 31 17 26 36 52 ….. 11 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 173
7 11 4 7 8 10 8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 48
8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
9 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
10 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
11 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
12 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
13 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
14 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
15 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
16 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. 0
95.47 74.53 95.14 115.97 228.34 99.34 46.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 755.08

[formula_2002]

5 is a bad bet
exacta matrix w/o the 5 on top



"Charles Town
Race
5

Post
9:11

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$5,038 "
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 ….. 5 3 2 7 1 2 1 1 1 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
2 5 ….. 36 6 49 7 7 2 14 8 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
3 4 42 ….. 10 101 12 9 3 29 16 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
4 1 5 5 ….. 9 3 2 1 2 3 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
5 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
6 1 6 11 3 14 ….. 1 1 2 5 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
7 2 6 6 2 11 1 ….. 1 4 1 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
8 1 2 2 1 4 1 1 ….. 1 2 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
9 2 14 22 3 29 2 5 2 ….. 6 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..
10 2 7 15 4 21 6 3 2 7 ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. ….. …..

[formula_2002]

ct r5 exacata paid $1.35 on the dollar min payout needs to be $1.51 on the dollar

previous exacta paid 1.08 on the dollar

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.89
"Charles Town
Race
8

Post
10:46

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,148 " =



8 is a bad bet

[formula_2002]

WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 2.89
"Charles Town
Race
8

Post
10:46

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$8,148 " =



8 is a bad bet



8-5 #8 lost 3rd choice wins $1 bet returns 7.90

through out the day, there were 3 win bets, 2 won for a 1.36 roi

complete recap tomorrow.

[formula_2002]

RESULTS FOR 10-15-2016

COMPARISON BET SIZE >=7
1 WIN IN 2 RACES FLAT BET ROI =1.13, AVE $1 WIN POOL RETURN = $2.40

COMPARISON BET SIZE <3
2 WINS IN 9 RACES FLAT BET ROI =0.32, AVE $1 WIN POOL RETURN = 1.45

I SUGGEST THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGHER COMPARISON PERFORMANCE 1.13 ROI , MAY BE REINFORCED BY THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOWER COMPARISON PERFORMANCE, 0.32 ROI

[PICSIX]

RESULTS FOR 10-15-2016

COMPARISON BET SIZE >=7
1 WIN IN 2 RACES FLAT BET ROI =1.13, AVE $1 WIN POOL RETURN = $2.40

COMPARISON BET SIZE <3
2 WINS IN 9 RACES FLAT BET ROI =0.32, AVE $1 WIN POOL RETURN = 1.45

I SUGGEST THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGHER COMPARISON PERFORMANCE 1.13 ROI , MAY BE REINFORCED BY THE WEAKNESS OF THE LOWER COMPARISON PERFORMANCE, 0.32 ROI

Impressive so far, hopefully it will continue to be successful as more plays are added :ThmbUp:

[formula_2002]

Thank you.

the longer it last, the more interesting it becomes. :)

[formula_2002]

Here is a copy of the note I posted to Nitro

It really explains my thoughts for the picks presented on this thread


"your methods are winning because you are discovering "overlays"
Your public is leaving value on the board.
If the final odds of all the horses are absolutely correct. you could not win.

You and I are going down similar paths, with me only working with 2 to 3 minuets to post time tote board figures.

I may be seeing some positive value when I think the public makes the favorite an overlay, so I bet the favorite, then there are times I suspect the public makes a false favorite, I'm reviewing my data to see how I can bet those races.

case in point, I'm looking at the 10-15-2016 Charles town race 4 where I consider the favorite over bet.

the final track fav odds is 1.10 to 1, 48% 0f the pool
the book % of that win pool is 1.22 (an 18% take out)
true win% on that fav calculates to 0.39%

Based on my data base of races, I think that fav will win only 30% of the time.
If correct, I have just lowered the book % to 1.05 (5% take out).

My 2 min to post time win% are different from the publics.

If I dutched all the horses except the fav based on track odds I loose 5%

If I ducth all the horses other than the fav based on my 2 min to post time odds I get the following returns for the remaining 5 horses
-10%, -7%, 12%, 50%, 6%

in the long term, for every $1 bet, I return a profit of 61 cents.

In this races the winner cost me a long term loss of 10%
More work is required.

hope the attached excel file helps explain the above


Attached Files

[formula_2002]

:1:


WIN POOL BET SIZE COMPARISON BET SIZE 7.40
"Mountaineer
Race
9

Post
9:59

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,593 " =

[formula_2002]

the 1 came in 2nd
$1 flat bet wps returned $3.40 for a 1.13 ro1

[formula_2002]

HERE IS A COPY OF MY NEW BETTING SCREEN
THERE ARE TWO "BET" COLUMNS
THE FIRST IS FOR BETS WHEN THE PICK IS DETERMEINED TO BE A SINGLE WPS BET.

THE NEXT COLUMN IS A DUTCH PLAY ON ALL HORSES WHEN THE PICK IIS DETERMINED TO BE A BAD BET.

WHEN THE COMPARISON BET SIZE IS >=7, IT'S A SINGLE WIN BET
WHEN THE COMPARISON BET SIZE IS <3, IT'S A BET ON ALL THE OTHER HORSES. THESE BET SIZES ARE A DUTCH PLAYS BASED ON MY WIN PROBABILITY FIGURES, ALL AS DETERMEIND BY APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUEST TO POST TIME.

BASED ON MY CURRENT DATA BASE, THE SINGLE BET IS A WPS.
I KEEP SCORE BASED ON THE BET SIZE AND FLAT $1 BET



"UK Newcastle
Race
7

Post
12:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,301 "
pgno BET BET
1.00 8.47 ---
2.00 --- ---
3.00 --- ---
4.00 --- ---
5.00 --- ---
6.00 --- ---
7.00 --- ---
8.00 --- ---
9.00 --- ---
10.00 --- ---
11.00 --- ---
12.00 --- ---
13.00 --- ---
14.00 --- ---
15.00 --- ---
16.00 --- ---
8.47 0.00

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth at Meadowlands
Race
3

Post
2:08

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,019 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 7.93
2 --- 1.92
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 11.69
5 --- 15.24
6 --- 23.35
7 --- 4.85
8 --- 2.50
9 --- ---
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 67.47

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth at Meadowlands
Race
5

Post
3:08

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$13,105 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 --- ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 10.09 ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
10.09 0.00

[formula_2002]

"Finger Lakes
Race
6

Post
3:28

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,200 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 --- ---
3 --- 6.49
4 --- 0.00
5 --- 14.89
6 --- 9.32
7 --- 25.43
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 56.14

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth at Meadowlands
Race
6

Post
3:33

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,772 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 4.25
2 --- 1.82
3 --- 4.64
4 --- 2.35
5 --- 2.28
6 --- 2.90
7 --- ---
8 --- 2.35
9 --- 11.12
10 --- 8.92
11 --- 12.72
12 --- 17.24
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 70.60

[formula_2002]

"Monmouth at Meadowlands
Race
6

Post
3:33

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$11,772 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 4.25
2 --- 1.82
3 --- 4.64
4 --- 2.35
5 --- 2.28
6 --- 2.90
7 --- ---
8 --- 2.35
9 --- 11.12
10 --- 8.92
11 --- 12.72
12 --- 17.24
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 70.60



RACE ANALYSIS
THE BOOK % WAS 1.19 (16% TAKE OUT)
THE FAVORITE, # 7, TRUE WIN % WAS 40
BECAUSE IT'S COMPARISON BET SIZE WAS <3 I LOWERED ITS TRUE WIN % BY 50%
THAT ADJUSTED THE BOOK % DOWN TO 0.91
A BET ON ALL THE NON FAVORITE HORSES COST $71, $81 WAS RETURNED.
BASE ON MY CALCULATIONS THAT HORSE HAS A LONG TERM LOSS OF 7%
THE ONLY HORSES THAT INDICATED A LONG TERM PROFIT WERE THE 3,9,6,4,8. IF THIS RACE WAS RUN ABOUT 1000 TIMES, IT WOULD PRODUCE A 1.79 ROI.. SO HANG IN THERE :)

[formula_2002]

RACE ANALYSIS
THE BOOK % WAS 1.19 (16% TAKE OUT)
THE FAVORITE, # 7, TRUE WIN % WAS 40
BECAUSE IT'S COMPARISON BET SIZE WAS <3 I LOWERED ITS TRUE WIN % BY 50%
THAT ADJUSTED THE BOOK % DOWN TO 0.91
A BET ON ALL THE NON FAVORITE HORSES COST $71, $81 WAS RETURNED.
BASE ON MY CALCULATIONS THAT HORSE HAS A LONG TERM LOSS OF 7%
THE ONLY HORSES THAT INDICATED A LONG TERM PROFIT WERE THE 3,9,6,4,8. IF THIS RACE WAS RUN ABOUT 1000 TIMES, IT WOULD PRODUCE A 1.79 ROI.. SO HANG IN THERE :)


this needs to be corrected. will do so shortly

[formula_2002]

I HAVE CHANGED THE HORSE SELECTION AND BET SIZE VALUE OF THE PICKS IN RACES WHERE THE COMPARISON BET SIZE VALUE IS <3.

AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS NOTE I EXPECT THOSE HORSE WHO'S COMPARISON VALUE IS <3 TO WIN FEWER RACES THAN THE PUBLICS DETERMINED WIN PROBABILITY.

IN NOTE #2 OF THIS THREAD THOSE HORSES WON BUT 29% OF THEIR 62 RACES.

YESTREDAY THEY WON 5 OF 7 RACES.
BASED ON A REVISED PICK SELECTION PROCESS AND BET SIZE DETERMINATION ,THE $1 RETURN FOR THE HORSES SELECTED FOR A BET IN THOSE RACES WAS $3.1. A LOSS OF $3.9 .

[formula_2002]

"Finger Lakes
Race
4

Post
2:31

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,480 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 143.66
5 --- 196.45
6 0.00 ---
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 144.52
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 484.64 484.64

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
8

Post
4:46

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$75,488 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 --- ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 9.66 ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
9.66 0.00 9.66

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
9

Post
5:19

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$95,442 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 138.87
5 --- 62.57
6 ---
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 108.44
9 --- 210.46
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 520.35 520.35

[formula_2002]

min required $1 return is $2.70

"Woodbine T-bred
Race
3

Post
7:45

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,113 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- 0.00
2 0.00 ---
3 --- 180.83
4 --- 199.60
5 --- 0.00
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 380.43 380.43

[formula_2002]

mim required $1 ret =$2.12


"Penn National
Race
5

Post
7:48

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,181 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- 0.00
2 0.00 0.00
3 --- 162.95
4 --- 239.10
5 0.00 ---
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 402.05 402.05

[formula_2002]

min required $1 ret is $1.85



"Mountaineer
Race
4

Post
8:08

MTP
3

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,867 "
pgno BET BET
0 --- 0.00
2 --- 140.48
3 --- 355.26
4 0.00 ---
5 --- 0.00
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 495.73 495.73

[formula_2002]

min $1 ret = $2.00



"Woodbine T-bred
Race
5

Post
8:47

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,896 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 0.00 ---
3 --- 173.59
4 --- 0.00
5 --- 158.34
6 --- 156.41
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 488.33 488.33

[formula_2002]

min req $1 ret=$2.85


"Mountaineer
Race
6

Post
8:52

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$2,105 "
pgno BET BET
1 0.00 ---
2 0.00 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 233.26
5 --- 204.81
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 100.08
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 538.14 538.14

[formula_2002]

"Mountaineer
Race
8

Post
9:39

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$1,737 "
pgno BET BET
1 0.00 ---
2 0.00 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 187.78
5 --- 0.00
6 --- 169.42
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 357.20 357.20

[formula_2002]

"Delta
Race
8

Post
10:03

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,022 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- ---
2 8.22 ---
3 --- ---
4 --- ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
8.22 0.00 8.22

[formula_2002]

complete results to follow
there were 10 races where the comparison bet size was <3
the return was $11.63 for a 1.16 roi

6 of those race won..

[formula_2002]

DUTCH PLAY RESULTS FOR LAST 2 DAYS

[formula_2002]

TWO DATY RESULTS FOR COMPARISON BET SIZE>=7

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
1

Post
12:55

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$42,044 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 241.51
4 0.00 ---
5 --- 0.00
6 --- 150.61
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 392.12 392.12

[formula_2002]

posted late, but worth the wait to me.
#6 returned $3.07 on the dollar, expected return was $3.03.
with any luck, the dice were LOADED :)

[formula_2002]

"Keeneland
Race
2

Post
1:39

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$58,246 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 11.68 ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
11.68 0.00 11.68

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream West
Race
2

Post
1:46

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$9,776 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 203.99
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 235.85
5 0.00 ---
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 439.84 439.84

[formula_2002]

"Gulfstream West
Race
6

Post
3:59

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$14,506 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 131.69
5 --- 212.19
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 112.28
8 0.00 ---
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 456.15 456.15

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
3

Post
6:53

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,544 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 0.00
5 --- 186.79
6 0.00 ---
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 0.00
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 186.79 186.79

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
4

Post
7:27

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,079 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 8.24 ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
8.24 0.00 8.24

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
4

Post
7:27

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,079 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- ---
2 --- ---
3 --- ---
4 8.24 ---
5 --- ---
6 --- ---
7 --- ---
8 --- ---
9 --- ---
10 --- ---
11 --- ---
12 --- ---
13 --- ---
14 --- ---
15 --- ---
16 --- ---
8.24 0.00 8.24

4 scratched

so far I have 1 loss when comparison bet size is>=7
BUT
4 wins in 7 races when comparison bet size is <3 for a 1.39 roi

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
7

Post
10:07

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,398 "
pgno BET BET
1 --- 0.00
2 --- 0.00
3 --- 0.00
4 --- 212.73
5 0.00 ---
6 --- 0.00
7 --- 0.00
8 --- 0.00
9 --- 286.21
10 --- 0.00
11 --- 0.00
12 --- 0.00
13 --- 0.00
14 --- 0.00
15 --- 0.00
16 --- 0.00
0.00 498.95 498.95

[formula_2002]

DUTCH PLAY RESULTS FOR LAST 3 DAYS

[formula_2002]

I must have many hundreds of live tote board data downloads, so I started to go through some of them to see how my plays would do.
I started with feb 2016. 18 races entered so far and the results are CRUSHING. I didn't do the CRUSHING, I got CRUSHED.
the only hope I hold out, is since the flat bets underperformed so badly my picks were made in a very poor environment :)

[formula_2002]

THE RESULTS FOR FEB 2016, ALL COMPARISON BET SIZES.

[formula_2002]

14 hours later, here is the new play
based on 347 races, 248 show bet payouts, 1.28 roi, a play in most every races. :cool:

all picks are based on the top factor horse with a bet size formulated on the comparison bet size.

most everything remains the same, but with a new betting formula that uses natural logs, tangents and exponents and absolute values :cool:
I'm serious :)

[formula_2002]

our big moment

"Lone Star
Race
7

Post
10:25

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,800 "
pgno BET
1 ---
2 ---
3 ---
4 ---
5 9
6 ---
7 ---
8 ---
9 ---
10 ---
11 ---
12 ---
13 ---
14 ---
15 ---
16 ---
9

[formula_2002]

"Lone Star
Race
9

Post
11:22

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,660 "
pgno BET
1 ---
2 ---
3 ---
4 ---
5 ---
6 ---
7 ---
8 ---
9 ---
10 4
11 ---
12 ---

[formula_2002]

"Lone Star
Race
10

Post
11:52

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,076 "
pgno BET
1 ---
2 ---
3 ---
4 ---
5 ---
6 ---
7 ---
8 ---
9 ---
10 60
11 ---
12 ---
13 ---
14 ---
15 ---
16 ---
60

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
8

Post
4:19

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,300 "
pgno BET
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 91
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
91

[formula_2002]

14 hours later, here is the new play
based on 347 races, 248 show bet payouts, 1.28 roi, a play in most every races. :cool:

all picks are based on the top factor horse with a bet size formulated on the comparison bet size.

most everything remains the same, but with a new betting formula that uses natural logs, tangents and exponents and absolute values :cool:
I'm serious :)

i'LL MAKE ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE ABOVE.
EVERYTHING IS STILL RELATED TO THE COMPARISON BET SIZE NUMBER.
I HAVE "THROWN IN A FEW CURVES" TO DEMONSTRATE

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
7

Post
3:56

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$21,446 "
pgno BET
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 193
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
193

[formula_2002]

"Parx Racing
Race
8

Post
4:25

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$35,006 "
pgno BET
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 160
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
160

[formula_2002]

"Portland Meadows
Race
9

Post
6:49

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$5,064 "
pgno BET
1 9
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
9

[formula_2002]

"Mountaineer
Race
1

Post
7:00

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,619 "
pgno BET
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 0
6 0
7 0
8 28
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
28

[formula_2002]

I have been posting the bet size at 10 times the values of the max and min values previously established.

I'll keep it that way (10 times)

so of the last 4 POSTED plays only the last was a system play. and it won :)

[formula_2002]

"Mountaineer
Race
4

Post
8:07

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$6,066 "


against the fav non system plays 1,6/2,4,7

1,6, to win

[formula_2002]

HERE IS THE BACK FITTED DATA FOR MAKING A WIN BET OR LAY BET.

WIN BETS ARE MADE WHEN THE COMPARISON REALTED BET SIZE IS >=10 AND <=100

THE LAY BETS ARE MADE WHEN THE COMPARISON REALTED BET SIZE IS >=2 AND <10.

[formula_2002]

"SAF Scottsville
Race
8

Post
10:05

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,633 "


lay 6 bet 1, flat bet

[formula_2002]

"SAF Scottsville
Race
9

Post
10:40

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,370 "


lay 6 bet 9

[formula_2002]

"UK Fakenham
Race
5

Post
11:10

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$1,475 "


lay 3
bet 1 for 19
bet 6 for 20

[formula_2002]

A
LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF % D3
5.0 5.2 11.0
$12 $12 $24
$24 $23 $12 $59 $85 144%
$144 $144 $144


this is how NITRO's dutch bet would look when eliminating
the 3 horse and betting my next three ranked horses

the 4 horse won returning $6.2 for a $1 bet
24 x 6.2= a return of $148.8 for a total bet of $59
for a profit of $89.8

handy chart NITRO.. thanks :)

[formula_2002]

using NITRO"S dutch

UK Nottingham
13 6 12
A
LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF % D3
4.7 5.8 15.9
$11 $14 $34
$34 $28 $11 $74 $121 163%
$194 $194 $194

[formula_2002]

Finger Lakes
2 3 5
A
LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF % D3
4.5 4.5 13.1
$11 $11 $28
$28 $28 $11 $67 $88 131%
$155 $155 $155

[formula_2002]

Nitro's dutch

Finger Lakes
2 3 5
A
LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF % D3
4.5 4.5 13.1
$11 $11 $28
$28 $28 $11 $67 $88 131%
$155 $155 $155


got all the numbers right except for the pgno

it should have read 2,3,1
the 1 won $1 bet returned 13.70
13.7 x 11= 150.7 for a bet of $67 a 2.20% roi

[formula_2002]

Nitro's dutch



got all the numbers right except for the pgno

it should have read 2,3,1
the 1 won $1 bet returned 13.70
13.7 x 11= 150.7 for a bet of $67 a 2.20% roi

note the format id NITRO's

The dollar odds are generated by me

[formula_2002]

"Finger Lakes
Race
9

Post
4:52

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$4,216 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
3 7 1
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
2.77 4.12 9.63
$8 $10 $21
$21 $16 $8 $44 $80 180% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$80 $80 $80 0 0% ACUTAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
3 7 1
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.36 0.24 0.10

$36 $24 $10 $70 $0 0% ACUTAL
#2 wins $0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

came out even
in my previous life I would have singled on the 3

[formula_2002]

"Belmont
Race
9

Post
5:19

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$97,618 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
9 5 3
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
4.97 5.38 5.47
$12 $13 $13
$13 $12 $12 $37 $77 209% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$77 $77 $77 $0.00 0% ACTUAL
0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
9 5 3
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.20 0.19 0.18

$20 $19 $5 $44 $0 0% ACTUAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

"Hawthorne
Race
7

Post
6:21

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$8,615 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
5 2 8
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
4.59 5.92 7.17
$11 $14 $16
$16 $13 $11 $41 $91 224% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$91 $91 $91 $0.00 0% ACTUAL
0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
5 2 8
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.22 0.17 0.14

$22 $17 $7 $46 $0 0% ACTUAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

"Penn National
Race
2

Post
6:27

MTP
1

$2 Exacta Pool
$7,468 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
6 5 2
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
6.02 8.45 9.04
$14 $19 $20
$20 $15 $14 $49 $141 288% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$141 $141 $141 $0.00 0% ACTUAL
0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
6 5 2
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.17 0.12 0.11

$17 $12 $9 $37 $0 0% ACTUAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine T-bred
Race
1

Post
6:45

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$12,991 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
8 2 3
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
3.84 4.11 7.31
$10 $10 $17
$17 $16 $10 $42 $80 191% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$80 $80 $80 $0.00 0% ACTUAL
0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
8 2 3
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.26 0.24 0.14

$26 $24 $7 $58 $0 0% ACTUAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

winner

[formula_2002]

"Charles Town
Race
5

Post
9:07

MTP
2

$2 Exacta Pool
$3,153 "
pgno BET
1 0
2 0
3 0
4 0
5 16
6 0
7 0
8 0
9 0
10 0
11 0
12 0
13 0
14 0
15 0
16 0
16

[formula_2002]

"Woodbine T-bred
Race
6

Post
9:18

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$10,047 "
NITRO'S FORMAT, FORMULA ODDS
7 1 8
A B C CONSTANT DOLLAR RETURN METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET ER* PRF %
3.32 6.25 15.93
$9 $14 $34
$34 $20 $9 $63 $83 133% PRE RACE ANTICIPACTED
$146 $146 $146 $0.00 0% ACTUAL
0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN


FORMULA'S ALTERNATE DUTCH PLAY
7 1 8
A B C PROPORTIONAL ODDS BET METHOD
LOW MID HI TOT BET AR* PRF %
0.30 0.16 0.06

$30 $16 $16 $62 $0 0% ACTUAL
$0.00 $1 ACTUAL RETURN

[formula_2002]

comparing the two variable betting methods, dutch vs proportional odds.

in this 17 race sample the results are close to each other.
both about a .70 roi.

I used my comparison related odds, which did not have a good day

I'll do some more tomorrow. perhaps I can get a winning day with the comparison related odds and selections and see how the two methods compare on a winning day, or I'll just go back into may data base and pull out the winning selections

[formula_2002]

its messy, I'll will clean it up asap


"Delta
Race
8

Post
9:52

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$7,802 "
DUTCHING NORMALIZED % OF POOL
10 1 5 PGNO 10 1 5 PGNO
LOW MID HI TOT BET a % pool b %pool c %pool totals
1.9 3.8 6.5 53.38% 26.07% 15.39% 94.84%
$6 $10 $15
$15 $9 $6 $30 0.56 0.27 0.16 1 BET SIZE
$43 $43 $43 $1.05 $1.05 $1.05 COMMON RETURN
$0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $1 RETURN
DUTCH ROI 0.00 NOR. ROI 0.00
DUTCH RETURN $0 NOR. RETURN $0.00
TAKE OUT 0.17
MIN $1 RET (ROI) $0.88

[formula_2002]

I HAVE BEEN DOING SOME WORK COMPARING DUTCHING WITH NORMALIZED WIN PROBABILITY. BASED ON ABOUT THE 100 RACES. THEY RETURN APPROXIMATELY THE SAME ROI

DUTCHING RETURNS THE SAME AMOUNT, REGARDLESS WHICH OF THE SEVERAL DUTCHED HORSES WIN.

NORMAILZED WIN PROBABILITY USES THE WIN PROBABILITYOF THE SELECTED HORSES, THEN NORMALIZED THE SELECTION. THE EXPECTED ALWAYS EQUALS 1.

FOR MOST OF MY CALCULATIONS I HAVE ALWAYS PREFERED THE NORMALIZED METHOD.
FOR ONE THING YOU CAN KEEP TRACK OF THE BET AMOUNTS BECAUSE IT ALWAYS EQUALS 1

SO WHEN ANALYZING SAY 100 RACES, I KNOW THE BET AMOUNT TOTALS 100. I KEEP TRACK OF THE RETURN, BASEDON A $1 RETURN.

HERE IS THE FORMAT I USED AND WILL BE USING FOR SEVERAL POSTS

[formula_2002]

bel r1

[formula_2002]

bel r1
the 6 finished 2nd if it won it would have returned $4.53 on the dollar

[formula_2002]

flx r1

[formula_2002]

flx r1 4 wins, normalized return on the dollar=$2.89
the play represented 37% of the win pool
the play resulted in a 1.08 overlay
I'm going to add "filed size" (# of betting interest only) to the chart

this race had a 5 horse field

[formula_2002]

wood r 2

[formula_2002]

1 wins, returns $1.68 on the dollar
the chart indicated a .74 underlay

[formula_2002]

wood r7

[formula_2002]

gulfstream west r8,

[formula_2002]

gw r9

[formula_2002]

gulfstream west r8 #2 wins. $1 return =$2.65

[formula_2002]

sax r6

[formula_2002]

dd r7

[formula_2002]

sax r9

[formula_2002]

gg r9

[formula_2002]

here is how the winner of gg r9 ststs looked

$1 return =$3.56
% of pool bet = 27%
estimated $1 return = $3.65

play was a .98 underlay (1.00) is breakeven

[formula_2002]

so far 10 posted races, $10 bet, returned $10.78 for a 1.08 roi
, 4 winners

however I down loaded 15 races today 9 won $1 returned $26.27 for a 1.75 roi :)

for the last few days, I was attempting to see how dutch betting results compared to normalized proportional odds bet. Not only did I find they are similar, I also came upon a method of tote board analysis that looks good enough to follow up on.

Using this method, I selected the data base containing the 10-12-2016 races.
18 races, 7 wins a 1.40 roi

todays plays are based on that same method

currently I'm playing 3 horses per race, however i'll review what happens when I bet at least those horses whose probability approach say 50% minimum

[formula_2002]

dd r5

[formula_2002]

that last bet represented 29% of the pool and lost.
there were two others that could have qualified. the total probability of those five amounted to 47%
the winner #6 was on of them
bet size on that horse would be .14 normalized to .14/.47 = .30

the $1 track payout on the #6 was $7.2
7.2 x .30 = $2.16. the total normalized bet always=1.00
therefore a play on those 5 horses in a 9 horse field returned a 2.16 roi
the expected roi was 1/.47 = 2.12 :cool:

got it?

[formula_2002]

i'M CLOSING OUT THIS THREAD AND WILL START ANOTHER THREAD, SOMETHING LIKE "TOTE BOARD ANALYSIS USING MULTI NORMALIZED PROPORTIONAL ODD BET SIZES.


HERE ARE THE FINAL RESULTS FOR THIS THREADS COMPARISON BET SIZE PERFORMANCE.

[formula_2002]

testing new look


"SAF Fairview
Race
2

Post
7:25

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$3,106 "
PGNO % bet
1 0.35
2 0.23

[formula_2002]

testing new look

#11,the 3rd choice won. bet size would have been .32
it paid $4.90 on the dollar

.32 x 4.90 = 1.58 return a $1 bet

the top three represented 61% of the pool
therefore,, min $1 ret = 1/.61= 1.63

actual return/expected return = 1.58/1.61 = .98, an underlay, but still beat the track out (say 17%) by about 118%

ps the posted program numbers are incorrect, it should read 10 and 4. I've corrected that

[formula_2002]

field size 13
"SAF Fairview
Race
3

Post
8:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$4,101 "
PGNO % bet
5 0.42
13 0.24
2 0.34

[formula_2002]

testing new look

#2,the 3rd choice won. bet size was.34
it paid $6.30 on the dollar

.34 x 6.30 = 2.14 return a $1 bet

the top three represented 22% of the pool
therefore,, min $1 ret = 1/.22= 4.54

actual return/expected return = 2.14/4.54 = .47, an underlay

[formula_2002]

testing new look

#2,the 3rd choice won. bet size was.34
it paid $6.30 on the dollar

.34 x 6.30 = 2.14 return a $1 bet

the top three represented 22% of the pool
therefore,, min $1 ret = 1/.22= 4.54

actual return/expected return = 2.14/4.54 = .47, an underlay

I need to look at the final track odds to determine how much my plays were an over lay or under lay. I'll include that information my results file, the following day.
in this case, based on the appox final odds, the play covered 37% of the true pool. that would make the min $1 return about $2.67

[formula_2002]

here is how the winner of gg r9 ststs looked

$1 return =$3.56


when compared to the final odds, this was a very large overlay.
a $1 return was $3.56
to break even it had to be $2.75
therefore it was a 3.56/2.75 = 129% overlay

[formula_2002]

"SANTA ANITA PARK
Race
2

Post
3:00

MTP
2

$1 Exacta Pool
$354,786 "
RANK 1 2 3
PGNO 12 4 2
BET SIZE 0.72 0.15 0.13
BET SUM 0.72 0.87 1.00
NUMBER OF BETTING INTEREST 12
ESTIMATED BET % 26.21%