HONG KONG PRE-Race TOTE Analysis

[Nitro]

I’ve been tracking the overall results when playing Dutch Win bets using 3 Top selections. These picks are generated by an analysis of the Hong Kong tote board BEFORE the actual betting begins. Many will immediately recognize that there’s a contradiction here. How can you monitor betting when the betting hasn’t even started?

Well this pleasant little discovery occurred only after I announced that I wouldn’t be posting LIVE selections for HK any longer. This decision was made because I found that my concentration level during the wee hours of the morning sometimes compromise my abilities to focus on the live tote action and making bets in a comfortable time frame.

But, I still wanted to participate by posting HK selections and I began looking closer at all of pre-race tote details that the HK Jockey Club provides. By creating a static tote analysis and interposing specific additional information found on the HKJC Web site, I’m able to come up with an array of good possibilities. Of course, it’s NOT as accurate as the LIVE tote analysis in conjunction with the pre-race physicality information that’s provided, but so far the results have been very promising.
The chart below covers the last 7 race days in HK and 63 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54.2 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $4,710 Bet w/a Net Profit of $1,750 and Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 63 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds. Using the "early" betting lines produced similar results, which means that bets can be made before the racing even starts. It’s a FIRST (that I’m aware of) when your only info source is a tote analysis.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HP 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HP 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HP 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HP 10/2 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

Dutching summary race day details:

Happy Valley 10/12 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133952

Sha Tin 10/8 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133872&page=2&pp=15

Happy Valley 10/5 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133815&page=2

Sha Tin 10/8 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133745

Happy Valley 9/28 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133693

Sha Tin 9/25 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133645&page=2

Happy Valley 9/21 - http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133557&page=2

[AltonKelsey]

Small sample, but congrats, you're on your way to making millions .

[Nitro]

Small sample, but congrats, you're on your way to making millions .
Under normal circumstances I would tend to agree with you about the sample size. Fortunately, I’ve been playing HK for the last 3 years and I possess the tote analysis for every race day during that period. It’s one of the reasons I was able to develop the “static” tote analysis. That, plus the updated information the HKJC provides each race day are what I believe the key elements.

As far as “making millions” goes the only place where that’s possible is in Hong Kong.
In fact, I always get a kick out of seeing the following statement on the HK site:

If the dividend exceeds $5 million per $10 unit bet, all winning ticket holders or telephone betting winners (including bets placed on ESC card or 1886 Telebet Automated Services, etc.) are required to register by dialing the 1817 hotline within the time specified. (Bets placed via Interactive Services are excluded)

[AltonKelsey]

Not sure what you're doing to come up with the horses to dutch.

I'm more than familiar with analyzing the exotic. Been doing if for longer than many here have been alive.

If your roi claims are even close to reality, a million in profit is trivial to achieve.

Show me the money ;)

[FakeNameChanged]

I’ve been tracking the overall results when playing Dutch Win bets using 3 Top selections. These picks are generated by an analysis of the Hong Kong tote board BEFORE the actual betting begins. Many will immediately recognize that there’s a contradiction here. How can you monitor betting when the betting hasn’t even started?

Well this pleasant little discovery occurred only after I announced that I wouldn’t be posting LIVE selections for HK any longer. This decision was made because I found that my concentration level during the wee hours of the morning sometimes compromise my abilities to focus on the live tote action and making bets in a comfortable time frame.

But, I still wanted to participate by posting HK selections and I began looking closer at all of pre-race tote details that the HK Jockey Club provides. By creating a static tote analysis and interposing specific additional information found on the HKJC Web site, I’m able to come up with an array of good possibilities. Of course, it’s NOT as accurate as the LIVE tote analysis in conjunction with the pre-race physicality information that’s provided, but so far the results have been very promising.
The chart below covers the last 7 race days in HK and 63 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54.2 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $4,710 Bet w/a Net Profit of $1,750 and Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 63 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds. Using the "early" betting lines produced similar results, which means that bets can be made before the racing even starts. It’s a FIRST (that I’m aware of) when your only info source is a tote analysis.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HP 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HP 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HP 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HP 10/2 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

Dutching summary race day details:


Nick, Do you mean you dutch "your top 3" selections using your brand of tote analysis? And it may or may not include some of public favorites in your three? I'm trying to improve my tote analysis as well, but it needs a ton of work. What site do you play Hong Kong on? TIA

[Winger]

How do you determine the amount you are going to bet total? I understand how you distribute it, but where you came up with the actual number to bet total.

[Nitro]

Nick, Do you mean you dutch "your top 3" selections using your brand of tote analysis? And it may or may not include some of public favorites in your three? I'm trying to improve my tote analysis as well, but it needs a ton of work. What site do you play Hong Kong on? TIA
Absolutely! As I mentioned I provide my early picks with what I call a "static" tote analysis, but personally I always the Live tote in conjunction with the pre-race physicality reports. This method performing about 15% better than the static version.

If you have the time to review some of the links which illustrate each of the last 7 days you'll notice that its always based upon what the odds of the 3 top picks provide in terms of a Profit Margin %. The Dutch calculator works great for this purpose. I play using Xpressbet and TVG.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nick, the two links you sent via PM were dead ends, 404's. I'll check some of these.

[Nitro]

How do you determine the amount you are going to bet total? I understand how you distribute it, but where you came up with the actual number to bet total.
As I mentioned, if you visit some of the more recent of the HK threads from the links I posted above, you’ll find the Dutching calculator I use. Once you enter the odds of the 3 selections (in the correct order), the calculator provides the basic individual bets necessary and the total bet involved. Of course the basic bet can be divided (to reduce the O.A. bet) or multiplied (to increase the O.A. bet).

[FakeNameChanged]

So you grade your top picks; I see 5 in the examples, but you play(dutch) the top 3 according to your tote analysis rules? What do you do with the #4 and #5 plays? I know when I'm focusing on tote boards, I often have two that look like very live plays in the exactas and doubles. It always looks more enticing to me when none of the top three ML's are two of my plays.

[Nitro]

So you grade your top picks; I see 5 in the examples, but you play(dutch) the top 3 according to your tote analysis rules? What do you do with the #4 and #5 plays? I know when I'm focusing on tote boards, I often have two that look like very live plays in the exactas and doubles. It always looks more enticing to me when none of the top three ML's are two of my plays.
Based on the “static” tote analysis I derive the top (6) selections. Only the top (3) are the designated choices for Dutching purposes. The remaining can be used in both Quinella and Triple combinations. When I was posting Live selections, my Top (2) picks are generally used as Keys and I just continued to use that same format for posting the early picks.

The Live tote analysis I use doesn’t rely on M/L odds at all. It only uses the money entering each of the mutual pools as well as the Exacta pool in the States or the Quinella pool in Hong Kong. The more betting entries there are in a race, the more discriminatory the analysis becomes, which is exactly what we’re looking for. The more separation there is in each of the betting patterns the easier the final selection process becomes.

[formula_2002]

Nitro, what is your total booking percentage for each race. that is sum 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse?

[Nitro]

Nitro, what is your total booking percentage for each race. that is sum 1/(ODDS+1) for each horse?
I’m not sure I understand the significance of “booking percentage”. When Dutching the only thing I believe is important is the potential Profit % when the odds of all 3 selections are combined. As long as that figure is higher then the hit frequency % a profit is an absolute result.
These are first {3) races from the last day at HK:

HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/12
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133952

R#1 - 1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3.............. Results: 1 -6-5-12 (Top choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.2/1 ) – 7 ( 14/1 ) - $100.00 – $100.00
#1 – 1/2.3+1 = 0.30……..#6 – 1/7.2+1 = 0.12………..#7 – 1/14+1 = 0.07

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2................... Results: 5 -6-4-7 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 5 ( 2.9/1 ) - $96.00 – $196.00
#3 – 1/10+1= 0.09…….#1 = 1/7.2+1 = 0.12……….#5 – 1/2.9+1 = 0.29

R#3 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-8....... Results: 2-5-7-6 (Top choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) –5 ( 5.6/1 ) –4 ( 4.9/1 ) - $64.00 – $260.00
#2 – 1/2.8+1 = 0.26……#5 – 1/5.6+1 = 0.18……..#4 – 1/4.9+1 = 0.17

Maybe you could explain why you feel these “booking % “ numbers are important?
As far as I’m concerned I’m up $260 after 3 races.

[ultracapper]

That's the only way to play a dutch. You must designate a desired profit and then bet an amount in relation to the odds. I see guys dutching all the time where they designate one horse as their profit horse and the other as a backup bet, to just get their money back if it beats their chosen profit horse. They're just throwing winners away when they hit the "other" horse.

The place pool is your backup bet. It's the only use for the place pool. The return in the place pool in comparison to the win pool is just too depressed to be used as a profit pool. The win pool is the profit pool, so therefore, whether dutching 2 or even 4 horses, a desired profit must be designated, and then spread the money accordingly.

[ultracapper]

Based on the “static” tote analysis I derive the top (6) selections. Only the top (3) are the designated choices for Dutching purposes. The remaining can be used in both Quinella and Triple combinations. When I was posting Live selections, my Top (2) picks are generally used as Keys and I just continued to use that same format for posting the early picks.

The Live tote analysis I use doesn’t rely on M/L odds at all. It only uses the money entering each of the mutual pools as well as the Exacta pool in the States or the Quinella pool in Hong Kong. The more betting entries there are in a race, the more discriminatory the analysis becomes, which is exactly what we’re looking for. The more separation there is in each of the betting patterns the easier the final selection process becomes.

You and I ride each other pretty hard, but it's not because I don't appreciate the way you play your game. I fully understand the method of your madness, so, having said that, I hope you'll consider this a serious question.

Being that the general premise of your method is that it gives you a view into the insider's heads, how does including pools filled with North American bets on Hong Kong races give you that?

Not being a doubter, just wondering.

[Nitro]

You and I ride each other pretty hard, but it's not because I don't appreciate the way you play your game. I fully understand the method of your madness, so, having said that, I hope you'll consider this a serious question.

Being that the general premise of your method is that it gives you a view into the insider's heads, how does including pools filled with North American bets on Hong Kong races give you that?

Not being a doubter, just wondering.
Hey it’s all in good fun and good spirit. After all when it comes right down to it, it’s only a game.

My previous comment may have been misleading.
I should have said that only Exacta pools are available in the States and Quinella pools in HK. There is no Exacta betting in HK. The really nice thing about playing HK here in the States is that all of the available betting pools (Win, Place 2nd, Place 3rd, Quinella, and Triple) are co-mingled. However, the vast majority of money being bet is HK money!

That’s one of the reasons why I generally shy away from playing races in Australia and Japan. The only betting pools showing the actual money available to us are those generated by players in the States. It’s doubtful that those pools would offer any Insider tendencies.

[formula_2002]

I’m not sure I understand the significance of “booking percentage”. When Dutching the only thing I believe is important is the potential Profit % when the odds of all 3 selections are combined. As long as that figure is higher then the hit frequency % a profit is an absolute result.
These are first {3) races from the last day at HK:

HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/12
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133952

R#1 - 1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3.............. Results: 1 -6-5-12 (Top choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.2/1 ) – 7 ( 14/1 ) - $100.00 – $100.00
#1 – 1/2.3+1 = 0.30……..#6 – 1/7.2+1 = 0.12………..#7 – 1/14+1 = 0.07

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2................... Results: 5 -6-4-7 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 5 ( 2.9/1 ) - $96.00 – $196.00
#3 – 1/10+1= 0.09…….#1 = 1/7.2+1 = 0.12……….#5 – 1/2.9+1 = 0.29

R#3 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-8....... Results: 2-5-7-6 (Top choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) –5 ( 5.6/1 ) –4 ( 4.9/1 ) - $64.00 – $260.00
#2 – 1/2.8+1 = 0.26……#5 – 1/5.6+1 = 0.18……..#4 – 1/4.9+1 = 0.17

Maybe you could explain why you feel these “booking % “ numbers are important?
As far as I’m concerned I’m up $260 after 3 races.


after working it out, I don't see any difference if Dutch bet size is based on different common book sizes.
I just always worth to a 100% book wherever possible

[Nitro]

I’ll be posting the early selections for another round of racing at Sha Tin this morning (Sun 10/16) on the following thread:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134034

[lamboguy]

nice winners again this morning including the $25 horse in the 7th. i can see why you stay up for Hong Kong every time they run. when they go dark it must give you anxiety attacks waiting out the hiatus.

[Nitro]

nice winners again this morning including the $25 horse in the 7th. i can see why you stay up for Hong Kong every time they run. when they go dark it must give you anxiety attacks waiting out the hiatus.
I don’t mind staying up when I can reap the rewards of some great racing and the incredible potential value that's obviously offered in every race.

Actually I find the break between the meets to be very refreshing. But I really do look forward to when the racing starts each time. To be honest, when I started playing HK it felt like my whole game became rejuvenated. As far as I’m concerned there's nothing in the States even comes close on any level.

[FakeNameChanged]

With those kinds of results, I'd reset my sleep patterns to keep my mind sharper.

[Winger]

As I mentioned, if you visit some of the more recent of the HK threads from the links I posted above, you’ll find the Dutching calculator I use. Once you enter the odds of the 3 selections (in the correct order), the calculator provides the basic individual bets necessary and the total bet involved. Of course the basic bet can be divided (to reduce the O.A. bet) or multiplied (to increase the O.A. bet).

Thank you. I've been following your threads, but I missed the excel file at the bottom.

[Nitro]

With those kinds of results, I'd reset my sleep patterns to keep my mind sharper.
I've got a regular routine that seems to work pretty good. Not having to post Live selections allows me to have more time for making bets properly and avoiding costly errors. I really think the adrenaline keeps me going in the wee hours of the morning.

[Nitro]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 8 race days in HK and 74 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 57 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $5,662 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,386 and Profit margin of 42%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 57% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 74 so far).
5) Considering the 57% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
........In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>


TRK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HP 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HP 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HP 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HP 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/16 -:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134034&page=2

[FakeNameChanged]

Nitro, Maybe you answered this before. Do you ever pass betting your top three if odds on your top three are low and 1st three favorites? I know the top three fav's historically used to win 67% of all races. Some on here have studied that and said recently it might approach 70% at many tracks. I've read that Saratoga it's lower. For example:
Pick 1 : 6/5 : 45.5% - $42 bet- $92.4 return if wins
Pick 2: 8/5 : 38.5% - $35 bet- $91.0 return if wins
Pick 3: 3/1 : 25% - $23 bet- $92.0 return if wins
Total top three = 109% - $100 total bets. It appears when the top three bets are dutched and total combined odds pct. is over 100%, it's impossible to make this profitable. What am I doing wrong?

Alt. scenario:
Pick 1: 8/5 : 38.5% - $47 bet - $122.00 return if wins
Pick 2: 5/2 : 28.6% - $35 bet - $122.50 return if wins
Pick 3: 6/1 : 14.1% - $17 bet - $119.00 return if wins
Tot. top 3 : 81.2% - $99 total bet-$121.00 average return if wins. With three dutching bets in this range, you would have to win 82% of your bets to break even.
Can you tell what your total threshold for dutching the top 3 is cut off?

[Nitro]

Nitro, Maybe you answered this before. Do you ever pass betting your top three if odds on your top three are low and 1st three favorites? I know the top three fav's historically used to win 67% of all races. Some on here have studied that and said recently it might approach 70% at many tracks. I've read that Saratoga it's lower. For example:
Pick 1 : 6/5 : 45.5% - $42 bet- $92.4 return if wins
Pick 2: 8/5 : 38.5% - $35 bet- $91.0 return if wins
Pick 3: 3/1 : 25% - $23 bet- $92.0 return if wins
Total top three = 109% - $100 total bets. It appears when the top three bets are dutched and total combined odds pct. is over 100%, it's impossible to make this profitable. What am I doing wrong?

Alt. scenario:
Pick 1: 8/5 : 38.5% - $47 bet - $122.00 return if wins
Pick 2: 5/2 : 28.6% - $35 bet - $122.50 return if wins
Pick 3: 6/1 : 14.1% - $17 bet - $119.00 return if wins
Tot. top 3 : 81.2% - $99 total bet-$121.00 average return if wins. With three dutching bets in this range, you would have to win 82% of your bets to break even.
Can you tell what your total threshold for dutching the top 3 is cut off?I will absolutely pass any race where the combination of odds on say 3 selections produce a very low Profit Margin %. The average 67% hit frequency for the top 3 betting selections is pretty much agreed on. However, this also refers to those 3 entries with the lowest odds at post time. We generally see an average of only 7 or 8 entries in a race. So it’s not uncommon to see odds like 8/5, 5/2, 4/1 (or lower)
Using those 3 as an example this is what the Dutch chart looks like:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 2.5 4.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $10
$10 $7 $5 $23 $3 15%
$26 $26 $26
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 15%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 85% in order to remain profitable!

Using the suggested Alternate scenario:

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 2.5 6.0 BET PRF
$5 $7 $14
$14 $10 $5 $30 $7 23%
$36 $36 $36
With that type of Profit Margin % (only 23%) you’d have to have a hit frequency of better then 77% in order to remain profitable!

As I mentioned (above) because my hit frequency right now at HK is 57% I would not play any races that had a known Profit Margin of 50% or less. So far out of the 74 races posted there has been only 1 race that came in with a 45% Profit Margin.

[Nitro]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 9 race days in HK and 82 races. It shows the following:

1) Overall hit frequency of 54 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,105 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,354 and Profit margin of 39%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 54% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 54% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>


TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (7%)


Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/19/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134076

[Nitro]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%


The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134156&page=1

[lamboguy]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%


The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134156&page=1 DUTCH, DOUBLE DUTCH OR NO DOUCH, that is a very strong record using 3 horses in 14 horse fields in a place like Hong Kong. my guess is that those races have approximately 7 1/2 win factors on average every race.

i gave the racing there a decent effort 2 years ago and found my main problem was having no clue where the horses were going to be positioned during the race. unlike north american races, cover is huge there. a very small percentage of the races were being won on the pace from what i saw.

[Nitro]

DUTCH, DOUBLE DUTCH OR NO DUTCH, that is a very strong record using 3 horses in 14 horse fields in a place like Hong Kong. my guess is that those races have approximately 7 1/2 win factors on average every race.

i gave the racing there a decent effort 2 years ago and found my main problem was having no clue where the horses were going to be positioned during the race. unlike north american races, cover is huge there. a very small percentage of the races were being won on the pace from what i saw.Yes, Dutching with the 3 early picks has been very productive. However, the Dutching I do based on the Live tote is even better in terms of the hit frequency because I can easily spot when some of the other selections are getting good action while some of the original Keys are not.

I’m not sure what’s meant by the “7 ½ win factors on average in each race”.

For those players like yourself who are interested in the potential running positions, believe it or not the HKJC Form Guide also offers a Speed Map link that indicates the apparent running styles and anticipated positions of each entry in a race. I’ve also watched many of the races in HK over the last 3 ½ years. I’ve found that depending on the turf conditions and the distances involved that the winner can come from any just about any part of the race. I particularly enjoy watching those 5F (1000M) sprints at Sha Tin where they run in a straight line (much the same as the ¼-horse racing does).

[Nitro]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 11 race days in HK and ALL 99 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,194 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 99 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15% The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/26/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134202

[Nitro]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 12 race days in HK and ALL 109 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,757 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 109 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/30/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134286&page=1&pp=15
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134286&page=2&pp=15

[FakeNameChanged]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 12 race days in HK and ALL 109 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 50 %
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $7,757 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,439 and Profit margin of 34%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 50% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 109 so far).
5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%
The Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 10/30/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134286&page=1&pp=15
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134286&page=2&pp=15
Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).

Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.

With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.

When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of

100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analyis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.

[Nitro]

Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).

Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.

With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.

When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of

100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analyis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.
Good Morning Nitro, I'm trying to get my head around how to use your style of dutching method into my own.
Using your above example of 109 total races, a 50% hit rate and total return $10196(7757 bet + 2439 profit).

Over 109 races, 50% hit is 54.5, so I just rounded off to 55 races won.
$10196 won/55 winners = $185.38 average return per winning race.
And if I bet a total of $7757 / 109 races = $71.16 average bet per race?
So now I have to dutch 3 horses, so 71.16/3 h. = $23.72 ave. bet per horse.

With an average winning ticket of $185.38/23.72 bet = 7.815 or ave. winning odds of 6.82-1. Does that sound about right? Maybe my math is fuzzy, or just plain wrong.

When I look at my own dutching plays, If I look at 100 races and bet 3 horses in each, that's 300 bets. If I could maintain a 50% hit rate of horses that aren't the top three, then to break even, I use my formula of

100% / (50%/3 h's)= 100 / 16.66% = 6.0 minus 1.0 or 5-1 ave. odds to break even. At 34% profit I'd need 134%/ (50%/3 hr's.) = 8.04 less 1.0 or roughly 7.04 -1 ave. odds.
My problem is finding 3 horses in a dutching plan that can all maintain an average odds of 6-1 or 7-1. I occasionally have two horses at 6-1+, or on friday, had a 3 horse combo that was 6-1, 8-1 and 9-2, but they are exceptional for me. Also have noticed in my own tote analysis plays, where there's three strong looking tote plays with mid to high odds, it's often a chaos setup and maybe only one of them gets into the money. You sir have truly found a method that finds these types.
Hey Whosonfirst, I’ve never looked at the O.A. averages like that or tried to evaluate the Dutching results that way. I generally take each race as it comes and by simply inserting the odds of the 3 selected entries into my Dutching calculator, I’m able to immediately determine if a race is even playable. As I’ve mentioned before because I’m hitting at a rate of 50%, I want to make sure that the combined value of the 3 selections provide a minimum Profit Margin higher than 50%. Of course, the higher this Profit Margin turns out to be - the better.
Such as these 2 examples: (Note the odds and difference in the PRF% - Profit Margins)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 4.0 5.0 BET PRF
$7 $10 $12
$12 $8 $7 $27 $15 53%
$42 $42 $42
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.0 6.0 8.0 BET PRF
$10 $14 $18
$18 $13 $10 $41 $49 120%
$90 $90 $90
Now if you can improve your O.A. hit frequency to say 65%, than you can also reduce the acceptable Profit Margin to 35% or more.
I believe that because the racing in the States being what it is with the smaller fields, that using a consistent 2-entry Dutch method is probably a better approach.

Aside from the "static" tote analysis working so well at pointing out the real contenders, I believe that the reason the entire program produces such a nice profit is only because of the incredible odds value in each of the races offered at Hong Kong. Of course, that also has to do with the HKJC providing fields of 10, 12, and 14 runners in all their races.
If you’re interested testing your own Dutching approach feel free to using this 2 or 3 entry Dutch calculator. Just plug in the odds and it does everything else.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 13 race days in HK and ALL 117 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 49 % w/Early picks (67 % w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $8,267 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,692 and Profit margin of 33%. (ROI 3.30)
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 49% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 49% (only 1 of 117 so far).
5) Considering the 49% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting the 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 11/2/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134347

[AxleLode]

Are you "Slick" from failed website ebettorsedge?Just curious.

[Nitro]

Are you "Slick" from failed website ebettorsedge?Just curious.No I’m not, but it’s funny you should mention that because he’s the same guy who became my tote board mentor through his original site called Tote-Works. I’m pretty sure that at the time he was also involved with ebttorsedge site.

[AxleLode]

Thanks for your reply because your bet structure was very similar and your explanations spot on to a man I used to compete with.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 14 race days in HK and ALL 128 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (67% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $8,886 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,999 and O.A. Profit margin of 34%. (3.4 ROI)
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 of 128 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

These results are based on the Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin Sun 11/6/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134448

[formula_2002]

Nitro, because I have spent more years than I want to admit analyzing the tote board, I truly admire your work.
the results are staggering

8886 bets over 128 races, an average of 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.

From what I can tell these results are based on win betting, using the prerace selections and final post time odds from which you derive your bet size.

Of course I would like to see your results for the bet sizes prior to the start of the race. I could understand those results might even be better than the final odds calculations.

All of this aside, I have a hard time accepting there is so much profit to be made in the win pool, a little yes, but these are mind blowing.


what type of work do you do? :)

[formula_2002]

$8886 in bets over 128 races, an average of $ 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.p
correction

[Nitro]

Nitro, because I have spent more years than I want to admit analyzing the tote board, I truly admire your work.
the results are staggering

8886 bets over 128 races, an average of 69 bets per race, a 1.34 roi, that's after beating an 18% track take out.

From what I can tell these results are based on win betting, using the prerace selections and final post time odds from which you derive your bet size.

Of course I would like to see your results for the bet sizes prior to the start of the race. I could understand those results might even be better than the final odds calculations.

All of this aside, I have a hard time accepting there is so much profit to be made in the win pool, a little yes, but these are mind blowing.

what type of work do you do? :)Hey Formula, I too have been using the tote analysis for some time now, but I can’t the credit for its origination or development. I will take some acknowledgement for using it to produce some very nice returns particularly with the racing in Hong Kong. As I mentioned, for the preliminary HK selections we’re using what’s called a “static tote analysis” because there’s no money being bet at the time. It’s based on all the tote information available on the HKJC Web site. Later of course as the betting cycles commence the actual pools are analyzed in real time. The Live tote action has been much more productive than the static version in terms of both the hit frequency and resulting Net profit.

Believe it or not, even though there are some fluctuations in the odds from when I usually place my bets (between 3 to 5 mins to post) and the final odds, it actually hasn’t made that much of a difference in terms of the O.A. returns. There’s just so much value to be had with the racing in HK.

Regarding the posted results of the Early selections you’re correct. Over the last 14 days there have been a 128 races posted using a 3-entry Dutch Win method at a cost of $8,886. The Net Profit has been $2999 or a margin of 34%.
BTW I’ve always used the same formula that’s used in business to determine the ROI
ROI = [(Payback - Investment)/Investment]*100
ROI = [(11,885 - 8886) / 8886]*100 = 33.75

As a semi-retired business consultant, right now the only work (or fun) I really do now is play this game for profit. :ThmbUp:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Nitro, would you be willing to say that the favorite in most races is the quintessential insiders bet? My issue here is that it is difficult to say definitively where the presumed inside money is landing....one could make the argument that since a horse is favored, ipso facto, inside money MUST be on that one, at least in some amounts anyway....if fact, the inside money may actually be on many horses all at the same time according to the dictates of some real time arbitrage method of price-risk calculation/ wagering output method...even you are using a multiple choice wagering strategy...so it is not so much that the insiders are "in the know" about any given horse physical abilities in any given race so much as it is that their "inside knowledge" is about price/ risk calculations that shift throughout the wagering cycle and involves as many as 5 or 6 selections....

[Nitro]

Nitro, would you be willing to say that the favorite in most races is the quintessential insiders bet? My issue here is that it is difficult to say definitively where the presumed inside money is landing....one could make the argument that since a horse is favored, ipso facto, inside money MUST be on that one, at least in some amounts anyway....if fact, the inside money may actually be on many horses all at the same time according to the dictates of some real time arbitrage method of price-risk calculation/ wagering output method...even you are using a multiple choice wagering strategy...so it is not so much that the insiders are "in the know" about any given horse physical abilities in any given race so much as it is that their "inside knowledge" is about price/ risk calculations that shift throughout the wagering cycle and involves as many as 5 or 6 selections....Vigors you’ve raised some interesting questions.
I would have to say that in general the favorite is not necessarily an insider’s bet. I’d like to think that the pro is hitting at a better than the 33% rate. While HK is another story altogether, you can see my hit frequency with Early selections is already beyond that and using the Live selections are double that (33% rate).

You should understand something about what I use. I really don’t care where the money is coming from, only where and its registering in the betting pools at specific betting intervals. Those that use a tote analysis will more than likely tell you that it already a foregone conclusion that it’s spelling out intentions. These intentions are exemplified by the beliefs that not only is an entry in excellent shape (physically and mentally), but that they’re capable of beating their competition. Of course they're also interested in getting a nice share of that pool money.

The fact is we’re using this tool as a method of determining which of the entries might actually be trying to win the race (Of course there’s always more than one entry). Which brings me once again to the realities of this game. Trainers enter their stock into various races for a variety of reasons, and it’s not always with intentions of winning. Taking ALL Stakes races out of the equation (where the purses are very enticing), the remaining 95% of all the races offer a variety of options and incentives for each stable to consider. Sometimes I think too much emphasis is placed on the horses themselves rather than on those who control their every move (both on and off the track).

[VigorsTheGrey]

Plus, there is the idea between bettors like yourself (who are seeking to interpret the motives of a presumed inside within the wheels of the tote) and the insiders themselves, that is, how much of any given betting shift is a product of the insiders' action, versus the "noise" of extra dollars added on to that shift once a selection is identified as being "live"...?

Is there a danger that a normal shift in wagering might be read as "insider action" that begins a snowballing effect by persons such as yourself, that leads to more of the same false reading of the horses' real chances? This is probably why you wait until 4 min to post to bet....to reduce that effect.

But I'm thinking that in large enough pools, these shifts are tough to gauge and that is where the exacta will-pays come in....because insiders seek to maximize their gains in these pools, and for "action eyes" like yourself, these will-pays are really the only place where shifts can be reasonably distinguished...thus you and Formula2000 are students of the exacta pool will-pays primarily....and there is no way to see the entirety of these exacta pools matrix, and evaluate them at the same time, without a computer program that is able to do this in real time....this is well beyond the resources of the average bettor...so while you may be right about the insider method, very few of us on the outside are in a position to utilized it and benefit from it, ourselves....

[ebcorde]

International week Dec 11th is the only thing to look forward to. Give me 1 month to study. I play Australia. HK and Japan way too late and way too many Horses. Aussie is perfect, sit in the bar and play races. And I don't take it serious

As for Programs


All I remember about HK is they do not win much from the backend at first call. or on the lead first call. That's what's good about speed map. And the rating system is pretty good, seems the best bets are Horses dropping that finished okay in the last race but not enough to remain at that class level. . (ie find a Horse last race in class 3 who finished 4th/5th and is dropping down to class 4). works for me.
I wish we had a class system like that here. 1 class/1 price.

And those Aussie announcers lose their shirts there picking Horses



Japan has a great stat for Trainers and Jockeys. They rank them by total win%. it helps. Because who follows the Jockeys there?

some Australia programs lists Horse MPH in 3 splits, that helps me. for short, long races. Speed map is okay too.
I like Punters.Au.

[formula_2002]

Nitro I drew a comparison between your HK top 3 picks and my USA top 3 picks.


based on your average top three bet sizes, you would have to lose the next 75 races to break even,
I would need 17

your roi for the top three is 1.59, mine 1.04
since my three bet sizes are always normalized to 1, my max bet and min bet is always 1

my win % is 42%
I don't know what your top three win % is. (your overall is 48%)

I don't know what your max and min bet sizes are.
I have provided an attachment to give some explanation to the above

can you provide a flat bet roi for your top three picks

Thanks

[ebcorde]

picks all pay over $6 on a $2 bet?

and are you actually betting or is this play dough? not trying to be funny.

[Nitro]

Plus, there is the idea between bettors like yourself (who are seeking to interpret the motives of a presumed inside within the wheels of the tote) and the insiders themselves, that is, how much of any given betting shift is a product of the insiders' action, versus the "noise" of extra dollars added on to that shift once a selection is identified as being "live"...? When you’re able get a handle on where the money is going and how its incrementally flowing (the Betting Patterns) the “noise” as you put it is just that and more often then not becomes inconsequential. This is especially true with the extremely large betting pools in HK.Is there a danger that a normal shift in wagering might be read as "insider action" that begins a snowballing effect by persons such as yourself, that leads to more of the same false reading of the horses' real chances? This is probably why you wait until 4 min to post to bet....to reduce that effect.This type of situation is definitely in play at the smaller tracks with limited sized betting pools. It’s real easy to get false readings, because the insiders know how to occasionally create enticing decoys that are then bet by those unaware of the other betting activities. This happens because once again the unsuspecting bettor is focusing on just the Odds (The Win pool). When in fact there’s lot’s of other activity taking place. Sometimes the Exacta pools (in the States) or Quniella pools (in HK) generate as much or more betting action as the Win pool!
But I'm thinking that in large enough pools, these shifts are tough to gauge and that is where the exacta will-pays come in....because insiders seek to maximize their gains in these pools, and for "action eyes" like yourself, these will-pays are really the only place where shifts can be reasonably distinguished...thus you and Formula2000 are students of the exacta pool will-pays primarily....and there is no way to see the entirety of these exacta pools matrix, and evaluate them at the same time, without a computer program that is able to do this in real time....this is well beyond the resources of the average bettor...so while you may be right about the insider method, very few of us on the outside are in a position to utilized it and benefit from it, ourselves....Your thinking in terms of the betting pools is one-dimensional (At least from the standpoint of how the analysis I use works). From what I understand, it doesn’t gauge shifts, it basically examines and compares the action in all the pools with the individual entries simultaneously. It doesn’t focus on any single pool. But you’re right, I think for anyone it would be physically and mentally impossible to perform any type of satisfactory analysis in real time.

Even if I could I wouldn’t divulge the intricate workings of this analysis. I’m sure my mentor took no chances either by encrypting all of the proprietary stuff. However, that’s not to say I won’t continue to offer some selections like those shared on the HK threads. Anyone, can take advantage of making those Dutch win bets before the actual HK betting begins by using the HK tote board, because the early odds for all the races are there. Granted they won’t be as accurate as those close to post time, but using them with any 3-entry Dutch calculator will produce profits. Of course if you're like me and don't mind the early morning wagering then the actual odds are at your disposal.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Very interesting.... Thank you for responding....I always learn a lot from you...and I do believe you are an altruistic person for sharing your selection s and other interesting information here on PA....keep on trucking....and I did notice that your selections performed well on BC day so your detractors can see for themselves.....thanks.

[ebcorde]

picks all pay over $6 on a $2 bet?

and are you actually betting or is this play dough? not trying to be funny.


thanks for the response


5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.

That makes no sense.
ex. if I have a 10% chance of hitting a race. In 20 bets .. I could lose the first 18, then hit Race 19, Race 20 ,no?

There was a guy on the net years ago that had an awesome ROI on long shots 30-1 and above based on top Owners, Trainer combinations win%. Daily , He updated his Database and provided queries ROI based on odds and Owners/Trainers..

The ROI was Huge.
But 2 problems
1. not enough Horses 30-1/50-1 with the right combo. maybe like 2-3 a month to play. But you hit 1
2. Few paying customers.


I always wanted to find out How he acquired the Owner stats for his database.

[Nitro]

thanks for the response


5) Considering the 50% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.

That makes no sense.
ex. if I have a 10% chance of hitting a race. In 20 bets .. I could lose the first 18, then hit Race 19, Race 20 ,no?

You’re welcome! I normally try to avoid responding to ridiculous comments.

What you take as "making no sense" is apparently another flaw in your thinking. The “hit frequency” I mentioned is a proven historical commodity. It indicates that there’s 50% chance of producing a winning result. The next step is to naturally try to take advantage of that by possibly limiting play after specific goals are reached over the coarse of any given race card.

The whole idea is to improve the bottom line: Profit.

[formula_2002]

nitro are you able to down load the hk tote board into excel.

I'm not able to do so.

I would like to try my program out using the pre-race tote board

[Nitro]

Nitro I drew a comparison between your HK top 3 picks and my USA top 3 picks.

based on your average top three bet sizes, you would have to lose the next 75 races to break even,
I would need 17

your roi for the top three is 1.59, mine 1.04
since my three bet sizes are always normalized to 1, my max bet and min bet is always 1

my win % is 42%
I don't know what your top three win % is. (your overall is 48%)

I don't know what your max and min bet sizes are.
I have provided an attachment to give some explanation to the above

can you provide a flat bet roi for your top three picks

Thanks

Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well. As I mentioned previously, I let the Dutch calculator determine the amounts to be bet on each entry based on the odds value of the 3 selected entries. Once those amounts are known, I have the option of either multiplying or dividing those amounts by the same constant to maintain an overall equalized profit margin.

Although my Live tote analysis is currently producing a 67% hit frequency, I won’t provide my personal ROI or Profit margin, because I feel it would be somewhat like red-boarding. Besides, skeptics flourish on this forum and I have no desire to fuel their cynicism with what they consider delusions of grandeur. My take is that they’ve been losing so long that whenever they see success they question its veracity only because of their own unfortunate personal experiences.

[formula_2002]

Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well

the process goes like this;

say I have odds like 2-1, 4-1 and 6-1
the probabilities are .33, .25 and .17
that sums to .75

normalizing to .33/.75 =.44

[ebcorde]

You’re welcome! I normally try to avoid responding to ridiculous comments.

What you take as "making no sense" is apparently another flaw in your thinking. The “hit frequency” I mentioned is a proven historical commodity. It indicates that there’s 50% chance of producing a winning result. The next step is to naturally try to take advantage of that by possibly limiting play after specific goals are reached over the coarse of any given race card.

The whole idea is to improve the bottom line: Profit.

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.

if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.

[formula_2002]

Formula I looked over your Excel comparison chart and I don’t quite understand your “normalization” process for evaluating a 3-entry Dutch type bet. Your process seems to reduce the ROI as well

the process goes like this;

say I have odds like 2-1, 4-1 and 6-1
the probabilities are .33, .25 and .17
that sums to .75

normalizing to .33/.75 =.44

pressed the "submit reply" to soon

see the attached for a better explanation.

it compares your dutch to my normalization. both of which accomplish the same roi should any pick wins.

the dutch returns $259 for a $69 play. a 3.75 factor
the normalization, 3.75 factor for a $1 play

[formula_2002]

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.

if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.

take a look at this.

http://math.stackexchange.com/questions/489055/flipping-heads-10-times-in-a-row

[ebcorde]

it was quitting when you are ahead for the day. I understand you have a recognition pattern you like. Sorry for asking a question

[Nitro]

as soon as the INSULT appears, a sign of a crack in the argument.

From what mathematician did you derive your mathematical theory? I'd like to read about it.

if it was that easy I'd play red/black at the casino table. same idea in reverse, wait for 5-6 spins Black and bet red.... win go home. guess what? each spin has no relation to the previous spin.Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.

[ebcorde]

Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.

I play Red/Black roulette , win and I never go back. same thing PAL.

I'll ask my Mathematical degree PH'd co-workers about your ad-hoc pattern recognition system over lunch tomorrow.

[Poindexter]

Maybe in your world!
But WOW! You really have no clue as to what I was referring to!?

It’s actually quite simple, but please give it some deep concentrated thought.
Here goes:
1) You know (in advance – based on historical data) that you’re only hitting at a 50% rate.
2) You’ve already hit 50% of the races on the card (or reached a predetermined monetary goal)
3) Then why not take a statistical advantage and refrain from playing the remaining races on the card?

I hope my explanation isn’t too advanced for your comprehension level!
In any case please do me a favor and don’t reply. I’ll give you the benefit of doubt that you were able to unravel this big mystery.

Nitro, one point you are ignoring is that while you may hit roughly 50% over a large sample, the lower the odds of the horses you bet in a given race the higher the hit rate will be long term. By the same token the lower the prices the lower the hit race. So in races that the live money shows up on a 7-1 a 12-1 and a 20-1 there is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning. By the same token in races where you come up with an 8-5, a 4-1 and a 6-1, you likely will hit over 67% of the time.


As far as quitting the rest of the card because you reached a certain number of winners that is silly. Each race is an independent event. At a 50% hit rate there will be days you win 9 out of 10 and days you win 1 out of 10 while typically you will win 4 to 6 races. If I am a professional football bettor and I go 5-0 over the weekend and my best play is Monday night, should I not bet it? According to you, yes. Not betting it, simply put, is opportunity lost.

[Nitro]

Nitro, one point you are ignoring is that while you may hit roughly 50% over a large sample, the lower the odds of the horses you bet in a given race the higher the hit rate will be long term. By the same token the lower the prices the lower the hit race. So in races that the live money shows up on a 7-1 a 12-1 and a 20-1 there is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning. By the same token in races where you come up with an 8-5, a 4-1 and a 6-1, you likely will hit over 67% of the time.

As far as quitting the rest of the card because you reached a certain number of winners that is silly. Each race is an independent event. At a 50% hit rate there will be days you win 9 out of 10 and days you win 1 out of 10 while typically you will win 4 to 6 races. If I am a professional football bettor and I go 5-0 over the weekend and my best play is Monday night, should I not bet it? According to you, yes. Not betting it, simply put, is opportunity lost.Poindexter, I admire your attempt to circumvent common sense when it comes to the logic of what I proposed. Unfortunately, your entire argument contradicts itself.

In the leading paragraph, you claim that by using 3 entries with much higher odds that someone would have nowhere near a 50% chance of winning versus that of using 3 entries with lower odds.

In the final paragraph, you consider it "silly" to quit at a certain point (as I suggested) because you claim “each race is an independent event”. You seem to first of all completely ignore the fact that while they may be “independent”, they are in fact non-identical events (such as identical events like flipping a coin or spinning a wheel) by any stretch of the imagination. (Even yours)

But what really amazes me is that you seem to recognize the degree of probability of loss when in comes to using entries with higher odds. Yet, you completely fail to acknowledge that the remaining races on any card will in all likelihood also present varying odds which or may not put you into that situation; where as you so eloquently put it “there’s is not a chance in the world you have anywhere near a 50% chance of winning.”

So to make this a bit easier to digest, I’ll submit a simple example based on reality:
1) We’re facing a 10 race card.
2) 7 races have already been run and we’ve been fortunate enough to already hit 5 of them and have accumulated and nice Profit margin.
3) At this point we realize that we’ve already reached our known historical hit frequency of 50%.
4) There are 3 races remaining each with big fields, varying distances, different entries and of course a wide span of varying odds value.
5) 8th race and its decision time. Do we play this race? We see that the odds on our 3 selections to be Dutched are relatively high. With those odds our probabilities of winning are "nowhere near 50%". No, let’s be “silly” and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.
6) 9th race and its decision time again. Do we play this race? But why if we know that in spite of the relatively low odds of our 3 selections to be Dutched, that we’ve only hit 20% of the races at today’s distance of 1800M on the turf. No, let’s be “silly” and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.
7) 10th race and its decision time again. As things would have it one of our low odds selections won the 9th race, but there wasn’t much profit to be had anyway. Now we’re in a real dilemma! We’ve technically hit 6 out of the first 9 races. The odds on the 3 entries selected to be Dutched are not too high and not too low and we’ve hit 40% of the races at today’s distance of 1200M on the turf. Now, realizing that we’ve already hit at a 67% rate and beyond our norm of 50%, let’s be “silly” once again and pass and hold on to our previous winnings.

Moral of the logic is that passing can be just as rewarding as hitting especially when you take into account all of the conditions you’re facing. Silly isn’t it to pass on an theoretical opportunity, when it may not even be there to begin with!?

[formula_2002]

nitro are you able to down load the hk tote board into excel.

I'm not able to do so.

I would like to try my program out using the pre-race tote board

yea!! I did it :)

[Poindexter]

I stand by my prior post. Absolutely not contradiction at all. But hey, if you are happy with your approach, that works for me. Whatever fills your wallet.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 15 race days in HK and ALL 135 races.
It reveals the following about the Early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $9,448 Bet w/a Net Profit of $3,314 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 race so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

BTW today’s results proves out this common sense betting approach.
Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley Wed 11/9/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134521

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79) 562 315 49%

[Nitro]

Apparently, there are some who believe that each racing event should be treated as an independent betting event when looking at statistical data. Well, this might be possible if each race were identical in every respect (like flipping a coin). However, I think most would agree that from race-to-race there are numerous differences which could impact how we view and utilize statistical data to our benefit.

As I’ve been posting previously, the 3-entry Dutching approach with the Early picks has had a success hit rate of about 50%. I had suggested that if you can hit enough of the early races on any card (50% of races carded) that it would probably be worthwhile (monetarily) to refrain from playing the remaining races.

So, I wanted to further this basic concept by showing a Hit Chart by Distance covering ALL 135 races. I use this to evaluate whether a play should be made or not. I can also use this for the early races when I’m playing Live to sometimes determine the size of my bet. This Efficiency Report Card so to speak allows me to see how well the static tote analysis is doing at various race distances.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

1000 P$(L) 1200 P$(L) 1200 P$(L) 1400 P$(L) 1400 P$(L) 1600 P$(L) 1600 P$(L) 1650 P$(L) 1650 P$(L) 1800 P$(L) 1800 P$(L) 2200 P$(L)
TURF TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF
9/28 (77) 9/21 20 9/25 151 9/25 350 9/25 34 9/21 (30) 10/8 (46) 9/21 (43) 11/2 (59) 10/26 (39)
10/1 51 9/21 48 9/25 95 9/25 (45) 9/25 (70) 9/21 31 11/2 (59) 9/21 22 0% 0%
10/8 72 9/21 33 10/23 86 9/25 111 10/1 (33) 9/28 67 11/2 (44) 9/28 (154)
10/12 (38) 9/21 47 10/23 (55) 10/1 90 10/8 (59) 9/28 262 0% 10/1 111
10/16 30 9/25 (57) 11/2 (66) 10/1 (76) 10/16 58 9/28 (100) 10/5 (52)
10/16 (60) 9/25 (149) 11/2 (65) 10/1 217 10/16 (62) 10/5 64 10/12 (75)
10/19 (51) 9/25 56 11/2 116 10/8 143 10/23 (61) 10/5 149 10/16 170
10/26 (47) 9/28 270 11/2 116 10/8 196 10/23 (94) 10/5 (65) 10/23 (114)
11/6 (46) 9/28 68 11/2 123 10/16 177 11/6 (60) 10/8 (42) 10/30 (61)
11/9 (54) 9/28 (42) 67% 10/16 (73) 22% 10/12 100 10/30 120
30% 10/1 (71) 10/16 90 10/12 64 11/6 372
10/1 58 10/16 114 10/12 167 11/9 59
10/1 177 10/23 379 10/19 (34) 50%
10/1 (66) 10/23 (57) 10/19 (48)
10/5 (58) 11/6 50 10/26 90
10/5 46 11/6 (38) 10/26 86
10/5 118 11/6 116 10/26 51
10/5 84 11/6 (50) 10/26 (47)
10/8 58 11/6 (34) 10/30 48
10/8 118 11/6 87 10/30 (38)
10/8 (75) 65% 10/30 (43)
10/8 (46) 10/30 91
10/12 96 11/9 129
10/12 (86) 11/9 62
10/12 (89) 63%
10/16 82
10/16 110
10/19 (51)
10/19 (83)
10/19 204
10/19 61
10/19 (30)
10/23 (56)
10/23 48
10/23 (59)
10/26 (26)
10/30 (54)
10/30 104
10/30 79
11/6 (41)
11/6 (50)
11/9 333
11/9 (83)
11/9 (52)
11/9 (79)
51%

[2low]

Nitro,

Would you not play the last race of a card just because you've had a winning day, even if the race is otherwise a good race to play?

[Nitro]

Nitro,

Would you not play the last race of a card just because you've had a winning day, even if the race is otherwise a good race to play?Not only wouldn’t I play the last race, but maybe not even the last few races; if I’ve already hit 50% of the carded races. The odds of the 3 selected entries may be very high, meaning that there’s less of a chance of hitting even if the race distance efficiency looks decent. Hey, if I’ve already hit 50% of the races, why get greedy? My goal is not only to make a profit, it’s to maintain the profit I've accumulated. BTW I’m betting a lot more per race than my posted summaries indicate. They’re posted to simply illustrate a baseline of potential profitability when hitting at a certain rate when using a 3-entry Dutch betting approach.

[2low]

Not only wouldn’t I play the last race, but maybe not even the last few races; if I’ve already hit 50% of the carded races. The odds of the 3 selected entries may be very high, meaning that there’s less of a chance of hitting even if the race distance efficiency looks decent. Hey, if I’ve already hit 50% of the races, why get greedy? My goal is not only to make a profit, it’s to maintain the profit I've accumulated. BTW I’m betting a lot more per race than my posted summaries indicate. They’re posted to simply illustrate a baseline of potential profitability when hitting at a certain rate when using a 3-entry Dutch betting approach.

Interesting. So what do you figure is the difference between the last race or last few races today, and the first race or first few races tomorrow? there is always a next race to play that could wipe out profits from the last race played.

[Nitro]

Interesting. So what do you figure is the difference between the last race or last few races today, and the first race or first few races tomorrow? there is always a next race to play that could wipe out profits from the last race played.The difference is that my bankroll has been increased with more profit “today” so that I now can proportionately increase my bets for “tomorrow”. Note that my posted Dutch betting results are static in terms of the bet sizing. In other words, there’s no bet size increase even though the bankroll has increased by over 30%. In reality, you would normally increase the bet size to accelerate profit.

If you understood any of the Updates that I’ve been posting for the last 15 days at HK, you’d clearly see that you’d have to lose quite a few races in sequence to “wipe out profits”.

[2low]

The difference is that my bankroll has been increased with more profit “today” so that I now can proportionately increase my bets for “tomorrow”. Note that my posted Dutch betting results are static in terms of the bet sizing. In other words, there’s no bet size increase even though the bankroll has increased by over 30%. In reality, you would normally increase the bet size to accelerate profit.

If you understood any of the Updates that I’ve been posting for the last 15 days at HK, you’d clearly see that you’d have to lose quite a few races in sequence to “wipe out profits”.

got it. thanks!

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 16 race days in HK and ALL 145 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $10,058 Bet w/a Net Profit of $3,780 and Profit margin of 38%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

BTW today’s results prove out this common sense betting approach.
Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin Sat 11/12/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134603&page=1&pp=15

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------>

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79) 562 315 49%

ST 11/12 2000 T 36 (36) 1200 T 54 39 1650 D 57 99 1400 T 66 51 1650 D 98 70 1400 T 47 (47) 1000 T 37 (37) 1400 T 46 (46) 1200 T 101 441 1600 T 68 (68) 610 466 76%

[formula_2002]

Nitro, I hope some day you will post an incremental odds analysis of your work.

the consistent results are impressive.
Although your bet size is based on the final tote board odds, the results are still impressive.

Looking at your 40 % winners on the last card, there was a flat bet loss of 39% but a dutch return of a positive 76%, even though that was largely due to 1 winner in the 9th race.

again, the consistent results are impressive. I pause to think if there is a larger application of your work aside from horse racing :)

continued success.

[Nitro]

Nitro, I hope some day you will post an incremental odds analysis of your work.I would like nothing more than to do that, but unfortunately that would give-a-way the secrets of the static tote system that’s been developed. Its benefits are obvious. Especially to those who understand the value of long term profits from a game which as you know are not always an easy task to maintain. The static tote analysis has worked out very well, and is a lead in for the Live analysis which has produced even better winning results.

the consistent results are impressive.
Although your bet size is based on the final tote board odds, the results are still impressive.The only reason I use the final odds with the Dutch calculator is to demonstrate the actual monetary results. This is so that no one can say that there’s any odds manipulation to produce inflated profits. To be honest when I play live I can acknowledge that only 10 to 15% of all the races in HK illustrate that the odds are affected by late money. However, these late odds changes have impacted my returns both ways and it seems to balance out when evaluating the overall profits. In most cases because the betting pools are so extraordinarily large, the odds are relatively stable when placing bets at 5 minutes to post.

Looking at your 40 % winners on the last card, there was a flat bet loss of 39% but a dutch return of a positive 76%, even though that was largely due to 1 winner in the 9th race.Actually the Early picks produced 5 out of 10 winning plays (50%) and we’re not making any “flat” bets at all, simply because Dutching has proven to be so lucrative. It’s funny you mentioned that 9th race, because it was the one race on the card that I pointed out on the HK thread that was the most difficult to predict. I never expected the odds of 2 of the selected entries to become 59/1 and 90/1! But I’ve learned to respect the tote analysis far too much to forgo such an enticing possibility.

again, the consistent results are impressive. I pause to think if there is a larger application of your work aside from horse racing :)

continued success.Thanks for your comments. It seems that you’re one of the few PA members who are willing to recognize the value of following the money as a means to succeed. I assume that’s because you’re involved in a similar methodology. Many of those who continue to handicap using traditional methods are fervent believers that some how or some way they will eventually eek out a real profit. Little do they realize that 95% of all players are long term losers. I personally feel that the biggest impediment that they face believe it or not is their own ego. That’s even exemplified here when some attempt to rationalize this Dutching play demonstration. They try to diminish its results because their own personal experiences cause them to be skeptical of anyone showing positive results. Little do they realize that I’m sharing this information as a limited opportunity for them to make some money. I won’t be doing this much longer because I spend more time preparing and updating the HK thread, then I do analyzing the Live races themselves. Besides I really have nothing to prove, and I realize most people aren’t interested in playing in the early morning hours anyway.

As far as expanding it for use in some other application, I’m not quite sure what that might be. But whatever it is, without the transparency of information I’m afraid it wouldn’t be of much value.

Best of luck with your own tote analysis.

[traynor]

I think more on this forum would be persuaded of the viability of your approach if you provided the ROI values for early selections WITHOUT the live changes. That is, the (expected) return for dutching the early selections (the information you provide pre-race) in addition to the (expected) return after live modifications (the information unavailable to most until after the race is over).

That might diminish the perception that your live changes are manipulated (after the race) to make results (seem) better, and encourage a more objective evaluation of your postings.

[Nitro]

I think more on this forum would be persuaded of the viability of your approach if you provided the ROI values for early selections WITHOUT the live changes. That is, the (expected) return for dutching the early selections (the information you provide pre-race) in addition to the (expected) return after live modifications (the information unavailable to most until after the race is over).

That might diminish the perception that your live changes are manipulated (after the race) to make results (seem) better, and encourage a more objective evaluation of your postings.Apparently you’re not comprehending the Updated information very well. I’ve been posting the same format after each race card is completed. I thought it was pretty clear that each and every post reflects ONLY the results from the Early picks for a 3-entry Dutch Win play. That’s why I also included the link to the original HK thread that illustrates the Dutch calculations for each race.

I know you'll be disappointed, but there's nothing to "diminish". Because there is no manipulation what-so-ever. I will not post the information and results for my Live plays. So now you can make whatever evaluation to your heart’s content.
Have fun!

[traynor]

Apparently you’re not comprehending the Updated information very well. I’ve been posting the same format after each race card is completed. I thought it was pretty clear that each and every post reflects ONLY the results from the Early picks for a 3-entry Dutch Win play. That’s why I also included the link to the original HK thread that illustrates the Dutch calculations for each race.

I know you'll be disappointed, but there's nothing to "diminish". Because there is no manipulation what-so-ever. I will not post the information and results for my Live plays. So now you can make whatever evaluation to your heart’s content.
Have fun!

Thank you for your response and clarification. In some of the previous races you have a "moved up live" notation. If you do not post the information and results of your live play, why is that notation needed (or used)? Late scratches? Something else?

[traynor]

No response required. My error. Apologies. I don't have much free time, and the question was based on (my) inadequate understanding of your posting format.

[traynor]

Open question. Has anyone taken the time to actually test this approach on his or her own? Meaning, using the pre-race selections provided, running them through the dutch calculator with odds close to post time, and recording the results?

I just downloaded the simple dutch calculator. With all due respect, it is a little brutal. Anyone take the time to make it more presentable/user friendly? If so, are you willing to share the improved version?

I am assuming that somewhere in all the many, many words written, there is something about deficit carryovers, but I seem to have missed it. It is nice when every day ends with a 48-50% win rate and a tidy 30+% profit, but there must be days when that doesn't happen. Does the next day start in the red?

I apologize if my questions have been covered elsewhere. I am running data mining apps on my computers and they are slow as molasses in January. In Quebec. Outside.

[formula_2002]

I have used dutching or what I call proportional odds bets for what seems forever,( in my case that is a very long time)

I use the following in my programs

sum 1/(odds+1) for any number of horses then normalize each

three horses with odds 2-1,3-1 and 6-1
1/3 + 1/4 + 1/7 = =.726

now 1/3, .33/.726 = .4545
1/4, .25/.726 = .344
1/7, .142/.726 = .195

that all sums to 1 (allowed for rounding).

so your total bet is always 1 unit, and it should return your $1 bet + $1

so if you bet 10 races, your total bet is 10

if you win 5 ,your total return is $10

of course you never know the final odds, so you may receive less than your $1 + your $1 win, $2.00. You could receive $1.80 or perhaps $2.10

I like to compare dutch return to a flab bet return
If your dutch is returning less than the flat bet return, you need to compensate for that by winning more often.
Dutch alone will not make you a profit

[AltonKelsey]

Maybe we should take the mystique , the voodoo , out of this dutching thing, so more people can appreciate it.


Sticking simply to win bets, proportional dutching (as opposed to weighted), the process is best thought of as creating a SYNTHETIC ENTRY.

Hong Kong in its infinite wisdom already does this for you with their three 'tier' bet (the faves, the middle ,and the long).

But we are doing it ourselves by selecting the horses to use.

So, there's nothing magic about. Someone claiming to have a winning method would have to be including a LOT of winners, and a LOT of overlays.

If they can in fact do that , they can make money. A lot of money.

I'd focus more on how winners are being divined than the dutching part. Dutching losers = ZERO.

[traynor]

I have used dutching or what I call proportional odds bets for what seems forever,( in my case that is a very long time)

I use the following in my programs

sum 1/(odds+1) for any number of horses then normalize each

three horses with odds 2-1,3-1 and 6-1
1/3 + 1/4 + 1/7 = =.726

now 1/3, .33/.726 = .4545
1/4, .25/.726 = .344
1/7, .142/.726 = .195

that all sums to 1 (allowed for rounding).

so your total bet is always 1 unit, and it should return your $1 bet + $1

so if you bet 10 races, your total bet is 10

if you win 5 ,your total return is $10

of course you never know the final odds, so you may receive less than your $1 + your $1 win, $2.00. You could receive $1.80 or perhaps $2.10

I like to compare dutch return to a flab bet return
If your dutch is returning less than the flat bet return, you need to compensate for that by winning more often.
Dutch alone will not make you a profit



Thanks! That is exactly what I needed.

[traynor]

Maybe we should take the mystique , the voodoo , out of this dutching thing, so more people can appreciate it.


Sticking simply to win bets, proportional dutching (as opposed to weighted), the process is best thought of as creating a SYNTHETIC ENTRY.

Hong Kong in its infinite wisdom already does this for you with their three 'tier' bet (the faves, the middle ,and the long).

But we are doing it ourselves by selecting the horses to use.

So, there's nothing magic about. Someone claiming to have a winning method would have to be including a LOT of winners, and a LOT of overlays.

If they can in fact do that , they can make money. A lot of money.

I'd focus more on how winners are being divined than the dutching part. Dutching losers = ZERO.

I agree. but I am open to alternatives (providing they generate a decent profit). The caveat with dutching (as with due column, which I use often and successfully) is that one has to pick enough winners (however that process is accomplished) to generate profit.

I am trying to understand what is being done here. It may be that the key is in the process used to make the pre-race selections, and the basis for that process (apparently morning lines, with perhaps some added calculations of the relationships of those morning lines). As superficially foolish as it may seem at first glance, I don't want to discard something that may be valuable because of superficial impressions.

Fred Brenner and his advocates made a lot of money over a long stretch of time with nothing more complex than tossing the favorite (in specific odds ranges) and boxing BCD in quinielas and exactas. The only thing he had "discovered" is that odds can often be used to expose false favorites (often heavily bet false favorites) and that exposure can lead to profitable opportunities. Complexity is not useful if simple stuff works better.

[Nitro]

I agree. but I am open to alternatives (providing they generate a decent profit). The caveat with dutching (as with due column, which I use often and successfully) is that one has to pick enough winners (however that process is accomplished) to generate profit.

I am trying to understand what is being done here. It may be that the key is in the process used to make the pre-race selections, and the basis for that process (apparently morning lines, with perhaps some added calculations of the relationships of those morning lines). As superficially foolish as it may seem at first glance, I don't want to discard something that may be valuable because of superficial impressions.

Complexity is not useful if simple stuff works better.
I can appreciate your interest. So far I’ve personally been doing very well both on the selection side as well as the betting side of this Dutching demonstration. The method of my madness is as I’ve explained previously based on what we call a “static (pre-race) tote” analysis. I naturally can’t divulge its intricacies, but I will say that the only way it can work properly is with the availability and transparency of the information provided by the HKJC.

In most cases it provides 3 entries of interest that have no other speculative value then their M/L’s. (Yes there’s more then 1). In some races it points to a 4th entry of interest which also has to be considered (and one that I mention with my early posted selections), but unfortunately because I’m limited to only 3 for Dutching purposes, I post what I believe to be the best 3 Early choices. Later on of course the Live tote action will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 or 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause me to make substitutions if necessary. This is why I believe the Live analysis has produced even better results. There’s no mystery here either, because anyone playing along can visually compare the entries of interest with the live betting activities in the Win, Place and Quinella pools.

[FakeNameChanged]

Nitro, Is there any reason why you're limited to only 3 plays in your dutching? With a generous odds on all four, why not on occasion play a 4th? It might push your hit ratio higher although the ROI may not do the same.

[Nitro]

Nitro, Is there any reason why you're limited to only 3 plays in your dutching? With a generous odds on all four, why not on occasion play a 4th? It might push your hit ratio higher although the ROI may not do the same.
That’s an interesting suggestion, and I’m sure it would have an immediate impact on the resulting Profit margins (lowering them). How that might correspond to an expected increase in the hit ratio I’m not sure.
I actually feel pretty comfortable using the Live tote analysis for my final Dutch betting of 3 entries because my hit frequency is already 20% higher than the 48% achieved with selections using the static analysis. That’s because of the substitutions I’m making from my Early Top 3.

[traynor]

I can appreciate your interest. So far I’ve personally been doing very well both on the selection side as well as the betting side of this Dutching demonstration. The method of my madness is as I’ve explained previously based on what we call a “static (pre-race) tote” analysis. I naturally can’t divulge its intricacies, but I will say that the only way it can work properly is with the availability and transparency of the information provided by the HKJC.

In most cases it provides 3 entries of interest that have no other speculative value then their M/L’s. (Yes there’s more then 1). In some races it points to a 4th entry of interest which also has to be considered (and one that I mention with my early posted selections), but unfortunately because I’m limited to only 3 for Dutching purposes, I post what I believe to be the best 3 Early choices. Later on of course the Live tote action will shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 4 or 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause me to make substitutions if necessary. This is why I believe the Live analysis has produced even better results. There’s no mystery here either, because anyone playing along can visually compare the entries of interest with the live betting activities in the Win, Place and Quinella pools.

Thank you for the extended (and quite clear) explanation of your approach. It makes a LOT more sense now.

[AltonKelsey]

Yes, I'm totally satisfied at this point.

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 17 race days in HK and ALL 153 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 48 % w/Early picks (68% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching EVERY race totaled $10,475 Bet w/Net Profit of $3,868 and OA Profit margin of 37%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 48% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 48% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31)

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100)

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66)

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89)

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114)

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47)

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44)

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79)

ST 11/12 2000 T 36 (36) 1200 T 54 39 1650 D 57 99 1400 T 66 51 1650 D 98 70 1400 T 47 (47) 1000 T 37 (37) 1400 T 46 (46) 1200 T 101 441 1600 T 68 (68)

HV 11/16 1200 T 45 66 1000 T 76 90 1200 T 44 58 1650 T 56 (56) 1650 T 40 (40) 1650 T 38 (38) 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 57 69


Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley Wed 11/16/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134677

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 18 race days in HK and ALL 163 races.
It reveals the following about the Early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 47 % w/Early picks (67% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $10,970 Bet w/Net Profit of $3,673 and Profit margin of 33%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 47% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 47% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79) 562 315 49%

ST 11/12 2000 T 36 (36) 1200 T 54 39 1650 D 57 99 1400 T 66 51 1650 D 98 70 1400 T 47 (47) 1000 T 37 (37) 1400 T 46 (46) 1200 T 101 441 1600 T 68 (68) 610 466 76%

HV 11/16 1200 T 45 66 1000 T 76 90 1200 T 44 58 1650 T 56 (56) 1650 T 40 (40) 1650 T 38 (38) 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 57 69 417 88 21%

ST 11/20 1400 T 64 64 1200 T 41 (41) 1800 T 56 (56) 2000 T 42 (42) 1400 T 54 (54) 2000 T 30 (30) 1600 T 81 91 1200 T 30 (30) 1600 T 50 (50) 1200 T 47 (47) 495 (195) -39%


Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin Sun 11/20/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134747&page=1

[Nitro]

UPDATE:

The chart below covers the last 19 race days in HK and ALL 171 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 45 % w/Early picks (66% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $11,392 Bet w/a Net Profit of $3,373 and Profit margin of 30%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)
4) With known hit frequency of 45% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less than 50% (only 1 so far).
5) Considering the 45% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final HK odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79) 562 315 49%

ST 11/12 2000 T 36 (36) 1200 T 54 39 1650 D 57 99 1400 T 66 51 1650 D 98 70 1400 T 47 (47) 1000 T 37 (37) 1400 T 46 (46) 1200 T 101 441 1600 T 68 (68) 610 466 76%

HV 11/16 1200 T 45 66 1000 T 76 90 1200 T 44 58 1650 T 56 (56) 1650 T 40 (40) 1650 T 38 (38) 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 57 69 417 88 21%

ST 11/20 1400 T 64 64 1200 T 41 (41) 1800 T 56 (56) 2000 T 42 (42) 1400 T 54 (54) 2000 T 30 (30) 1600 T 81 91 1200 T 30 (30) 1600 T 50 (50) 1200 T 47 (47) 495 (195) -39%

HV 11/23 1000 T 49 (49) 1800 T 41 (41) 1200 T 67 (67) 1200 T 43 (43) 1650 T 69 53 1650 T 44 (44) 1650 T 50 (50) 1200 T 59 (59) 422 (300) -71%


Dutching summary race day details for Happy Valley 11/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134793

[Nitro]

After 20 race days and 182 races the 3-entry Dutch betting approach with selections from the Static tote board analysis has had an O.A. success hit rate of 45%.
So, I also wanted to further this observation by showing a Hit frequency Chart by Distance covering ALL 182 races.
This Efficiency Report Card so to speak has allowed me to see if there’s any correlation between the success of the top 3 selections and various race distances involved.

1000 P$(L) 1200 P$(L) 1200 P$(L) 1400 P$(L) 1400 P$(L) 1600 P$(L) 1600 P$(L) 1650 P$(L) 1650 P$(L) 1800 P$(L) 1800 P$(L) 2000 P$(L) 2200
TURF TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF AWT TURF TURF
9/28 (77) 9/21 20 9/25 151 9/25 350 9/25 34 9/21 (30) 10/8 (46) 9/21 (43) 11/2 (59) 11/12 (36) 10/26
10/1 51 9/21 48 9/25 95 9/25 (45) 9/25 (70) 9/21 31 11/2 (59) 9/21 22 0% 11/20 (42) 0%
10/8 72 9/21 33 10/23 86 9/25 111 10/1 (33) 9/28 67 11/2 (44) 9/28 (154) 11/20 (30)
10/12 (38) 9/21 47 10/23 (55) 10/1 90 10/8 (59) 9/28 262 11/12 99 10/1 111 0%
10/16 30 9/25 (57) 11/2 (66) 10/1 (76) 10/16 58 9/28 (100) 11/12 70 10/5 (52)
10/16 (60) 9/25 (149) 11/2 (65) 10/1 217 10/16 (62) 10/5 64 40% 10/12 (75)
10/19 (51) 9/25 56 11/2 116 10/8 143 10/23 (61) 10/5 149 10/16 170
10/26 (47) 9/28 270 11/2 116 10/8 196 10/23 (94) 10/5 (65) 10/23 (114)
11/6 (46) 9/28 68 11/2 123 10/16 177 11/6 (60) 10/8 (42) 10/30 (61)
11/9 (54) 9/28 (42) 11/27 (44) 10/16 (73) 11/12 (68) 10/12 100 10/30 120
11/12 (37) 10/1 (71) 11/27 (60) 10/16 90 11/20 91 10/12 64 11/6 372
11/16 90 10/1 58 55% 10/16 114 11/20 (50) 10/12 167 11/9 59
11/23 (49) 10/1 177 10/23 379 11/27 60 10/19 (34) 11/16 (61)
11/27 (42) 10/1 (66) 10/23 (57) 11/27 (37) 10/19 (48) 11/20 (56)
29% 10/5 (58) 11/6 50 11/27 81 10/26 90 11/23 (41)
10/5 46 11/6 (38) 33% 10/26 86 40%
10/5 118 11/6 116 10/26 51
10/5 84 11/6 (50) 10/26 (47)
10/8 58 11/6 (34) 10/30 48
10/8 118 11/6 87 10/30 (38)
10/8 (75) 11/12 51 10/30 (43)
10/8 (46) 11/12 (47) 10/30 91
10/12 96 11/12 (46) 11/9 129
10/12 (86) 11/20 64 11/9 62
10/12 (89) 11/20 (54) 11/16 (56)
10/16 82 11/27 (40) 11/16 (40)
10/16 110 11/27 (34) 11/16 (38)
10/19 (51) 11/27 162 11/23 53
10/19 (83) 11/27 54 11/23 (44)
10/19 204 57% 11/23 (50)
10/19 61 53%
10/19 (30)
10/23 (56)
10/23 48
10/23 (59)
10/26 (26)
10/30 (54)
10/30 104
10/30 79
11/6 (41)
11/6 (50)
11/9 333
11/9 (83)
11/9 (52)
11/9 (79)
11/12 39
11/12 441
11/16 66
11/16 58
11/16 69
11/20 (41)
11/20 (30)
11/20 (47)
11/23 (67)
11/23 (43)
11/23 (59)
11/27 76
51%

[Nitro]

UPDATE: This Concludes the Dutch Win betting demonstration for racing in HK.

The chart below covers the last 20 race days in HK and ALL 182 races.
It reveals the following about the early Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 45 % w/Early picks (65% w/Live Tote analysis)
2) Dutching of EVERY race totaled $11,992 Bet w/Net Profit of $3,549 and Profit margin of 30%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (5)

All these results are based on Dutch Win betting of the 3 EARLY selections with the final HK odds.
The selections were made using a unique Static Pre-race Tote analysis.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) -7%

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%

HV 10/26 1200 T 26 (26) 1650 T 78 90 1650 T 82 86 1000 T 0 0 2200 T 39 (39) 1650 T 66 51 1000 T 47 (47) 1650 T 47 (47) 385 68 15%

HV 10/30 1650 T 54 48 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 38 (38) 1200 T 54 (54) 1650 T 43 (43) 1650 T 79 91 1200 T 80 104 1800 T 54 120 1200 T 46 79 563 192 34%

ST 11/2 1200 D 66 (66) 1200 D 65 (65) 1650 D 59 (59) 1200 D 55 116 1200 D 84 116 1800 D 59 (59) 1200 D 78 123 1650 D 44 (44) 510 62 12%

ST 11/6 1400 T 59 50 1200 T 41 (41) 1400 T 38 (38) 1200 T 50 (50) 1000 T 46 (46) 1600 T 60 (60) 1400 T 86 116 1800 T 97 372 1400 T 50 (50) 1400 T 34 (34) 1400 T 58 87 619 306 49%

HV 11/9 1000 T 54 (54) 1650 T 73 129 1650 T 62 62 1200 T 95 333 1200 T 83 (83) 1800 T 64 59 1200 T 52 (52) 1200 T 79 (79) 562 315 49%

ST 11/12 2000 T 36 (36) 1200 T 54 39 1650 D 57 99 1400 T 66 51 1650 D 98 70 1400 T 47 (47) 1000 T 37 (37) 1400 T 46 (46) 1200 T 101 441 1600 T 68 (68) 610 466 76%

HV 11/16 1200 T 45 66 1000 T 76 90 1200 T 44 58 1650 T 56 (56) 1650 T 40 (40) 1650 T 38 (38) 1800 T 61 (61) 1200 T 57 69 417 88 21%

ST 11/20 1400 T 64 64 1200 T 41 (41) 1800 T 56 (56) 2000 T 42 (42) 1400 T 54 (54) 2000 T 30 (30) 1600 T 81 91 1200 T 30 (30) 1600 T 50 (50) 1200 T 47 (47) 495 (195) -39%

HV 11/23 1000 T 49 (49) 1800 T 41 (41) 1200 T 67 (67) 1200 T 43 (43) 1650 T 69 53 1650 T 44 (44) 1650 T 50 (50) 1200 T 59 (59) 422 (300) -71%

ST 11/27 1400 T 40 (40) 1400 T 34 (34) 1000 T 42 (42) 1200 T 64 76 1200 D 44 (44) 1600 T 76 60 1600 T 37 (37) 1200 D 60 (60) 1600 T 56 81 1400 T 68 162 1400 T 79 54 600 176 45%


Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 11/27/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134868&page=2

[Winger]

Nitro,

I'm cross-posting this because I think it's important that you see it.

You know this back-and-forth bantering about something that’s been going on for the last few weeks on various HK threads is actually getting pretty redundant and tiresome, at least from my perspective. Apparently, the few that are commenting on these Dutching results are pointing out the obvious differences between the U.S odds and payoffs versus those in H K (which BTW I have used exclusively for the purposes of simply demonstrating 2 things:
A very credible O.A. hit frequency using a totally unique static tote analysis, and the potential Profit margins that a Dutching scheme can produce.

(For those who are not involved in this little controversy, but interested in knowing more about it; you’ll have noticed that each time it comes up, it’s ALWAYS related to the Dutch betting results when a short priced favorite Wins!)
Let me offer a reasonable explanation:
First of all let’s agree on one important factor:
Whatever the bet payoff is in HK dollars the U.S. equivalent is always 5 times less.
In other words, note the following:
1) If the odds on a favorite is 2.9/1 in HK the return is 29.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 29/5 or $5.80.
(The normal return on 2.9/1 odds is $7.80. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00 or 25%.)
...............Or
2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
...............Or
3) If a Quinella pays 250.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 250/5 or $50.00.
...............Or
4) If a Triple pays 10,000.00 HK$ the return in the U.S. the return is 10,000/5 or $2000.00.

These payout differences HAVE ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE “TAKE-OUT” % IN ANY BETTING POOL.

Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

This is very close to the 11.5/1 odds O.A. average that I’ve witnessed over the previous 182 races I’ve recently demonstrated with the Dutch betting scheme. So, if we use this odds average, it follows that the avg. winning return in HK would be 115.00 HK$ with a 1/5 return of $23.00 U.S.
(The normal return on 11.5/1 odds is $25.00. So again, there’s a disparity of $2.00 but only 8%.)

Well there you go! If you now wish to concede that my demonstrated Dutch Win Profit margin of 30% over those 182 races be reduced by 8% that’s your prerogative. But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY! So, I wouldn’t be surprised if that O.A. 30% Profit margin is actually higher than suggested. (I know my personal Live action Dutch betting certainly is!) But if that’s not good enough for you, then I’ll just add that my rebate program easily covers these disparities.

So if there's any genius that would like to waste their time disputing my explanation, please realize that I will not waste my time responding! Yes, my Dutch demonstration may be over, but the HK racing continues.
BTW anyone who thinks that I stay up all night through the early AM for fun is as far as I’m concerned expressing a very naïve and imprudent opinion.



Nitro,

I don't think you understand what people are telling you.
You said:
"2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)"

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how this works. If a typical long shot is 17/1 HK, the return is 170.00 as you said. However, that includes the original $10 wager. So the profit on that bet is $160.00. In a United States race, those odds would display at 16/1. A $10 bet would still return $170, so there is no disparity.


Let's look at an actual example of yours. This is race #9. The race was won by the :4: with odds of 18/1. According to your dutching calculator, you bet $7 on the :4: and $56 total across your 3 entries. That bet would have returned $7 x 18/1 = $126. The HKJC results show that a Win bet on the :4: returned $185. If you normalize that for a $7 bet, you get $185 x 0.7 = $129.5. So there is a $3.50 disparity simply because the odds displayed aren't that precise. You claimed thata $7 win on this horse would pay $137, but that was not true.

So let's calculate your profit using the $129.5 number.
$129.50 (return) - $56 (original bet) = $73.50. So your profit for that race was $73.50, yet you claimed you made $81 in profit, which was 10% more than you actually made. This is what people are trying to explain to you, your numbers are completely off. It's not because of short-priced horses. It's because you are calculating the returns on your bets entirely wrong.

We can look at the next race and see you made the exact same error again. You claimed that a $19 win bet on :3: paid $230. If you look at the HKJC results, you will see that :3: paid $113.50. If you normalize that for a $19 win bet, that means it paid $113.50 * 1.9 = $215.65. So therefore your actual profit was $147.65, not $162. So again, you listed your profit at 10% higher than it actually was. You have this made flaw in every single profit calculation you have made in your 20 threads. It's because your dutching calculator has a wrong equation in it. Your dutching calculator was built for the way US tracks report their odds, not the way HKJC reports its odds. In order for your calculator to be correct, you have to subtract 1 from the odds reported by the HKJC.

[RedMeansGo]

No Winger, you don't understand. His rebate makes up for any and all miscalculated profits. :D

[Winger]

No Winger, you don't understand. His rebate makes up for any and all miscalculated profits. :D


Without doing the math, I believe it is likely that he still would have shown a slight profit, but it is hard to tell because we don't know how far off he was. For long shots, his profit was off by about 10%, but when you get to the short-priced horses, it was off by close to 25%.

[Maximillion]

I play using Xpressbet and TVG.

You can get rebates there?

[NorCalGreg]

A little "netiquette" goes a long way---Nitro has dug himself a hole here, and could easily explain a couple accounting mistakes--no big deal for most people.

That won't happen here.

I will say this...remember that thread Mike started--the Breeder's Cup "LIVE" thread? I didn't pick diddly..most of us didn't.

I went back the next day to see who did-- it was Nitro that picked more winners than anyone I saw.

For what it's worth--NCG

[Alwaysonpoint36]

A little "netiquette" goes a long way---Nitro has dug himself a hole here, and could easily explain a couple accounting mistakes--no big deal for most people.

That won't happen here.

I will say this...remember that thread Mike started--the Breeder's Cup "LIVE" thread? I didn't pick diddly..most of us didn't.

I went back the next day to see who did-- it was Nitro that picked more winners than anyone I saw.

For what it's worth--NCG

Worth nothing if you're picking 5-6 entries and wagering nothing behind it. The dude is canal street fugazy

[steveb]

You have a fundamental misunderstanding of how this works. If a typical long shot is 17/1 HK, the return is 170.00 as you said. However, that includes the original $10 wager. So the profit on that bet is $160.00. In a United States race, those odds would display at 16/1. A $10 bet would still return $170, so there is no disparity.



if it's 17/1 and a unit is hk10, then the return is hk180 and 170 profit per unit.
i have no idea what the subject is, but 17/1 implies 17 chances of losing and one of winning, so the return would be 180 for 10 dollars.

[formula_2002]

A little "netiquette" goes a long way---Nitro has dug himself a hole here, and could easily explain a couple accounting mistakes--no big deal for most people.

That won't happen here.

I will say this...remember that thread Mike started--the Breeder's Cup "LIVE" thread? I didn't pick diddly..most of us didn't.

I went back the next day to see who did-- it was Nitro that picked more winners than anyone I saw.

For what it's worth--NCG

He picks a lot of winners, I wish he would go back over his race results and repost them correctly. He could very well show a profit.

[Winger]

if it's 17/1 and a unit is hk10, then the return is hk180 and 170 profit per unit.
i have no idea what the subject is, but 17/1 implies 17 chances of losing and one of winning, so the return would be 180 for 10 dollars.

The odds displayed on the Hong Kong races are the total return, including the return of the original bet. So 17/1 on a Hong Kong race is really 16/1. This is why Nitro is miscalculating his profit.

[steveb]

The odds displayed on the Hong Kong races are the total return, including the return of the original bet. So 17/1 on a Hong Kong race is really 16/1. This is why Nitro is miscalculating his profit.

of course they are, but 17/1 on the hk tote would be showing 180
16/1 would be showing 170.

i have no idea if nitro is miscalculating anything, all i am commenting on is what you are saying.
and you are saying it wrong.

[formula_2002]

He picks a lot of winners, I wish he would go back over his race results and repost them correctly. He could very well show a profit.
I keep results based on my bet size, final track odds bet size and actual winners vs expected winners, that's why I don't bet :)

[steveb]

The odds displayed on the Hong Kong races are the total return, including the return of the original bet. So 17/1 on a Hong Kong race is really 16/1. This is why Nitro is miscalculating his profit.

so i just had a glimpse of what nitro said, and he is wrong too, because....

(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

...what is displayed on hk tote, is NOT odds as such.
for wednesday at hv the odds for the first winner would be 18.25/1(it actually paid 19.25 not 19 because HK rounds at results stage)
2nd winner would be 3/1...etc, etc.

and averaging the odds is misleading.
say you had one winner at 100/1 and one at 1/1 which would give you an average of 50.5/1
in fact it would be more accurate to use the harmonic mean which would be harmean(101:2) = 3.92 or 2.92/1

[ROK]

11/27 Hong Kong

Nitro's winners

Hong Kong Odds--Twinspires payoffs--Twinspires odds

R4--2.9--$5.8--1.9
R9--18.5--$37--17.5
R10--11.4--$22.7--10.4
R11--8.4--$16.9--7.5

Good results for flat betting--not so good for dutching 31% vs 10% ROI.

Nitro's estimate of 29% for dutching is wrong. I believe Formula arrived at 9% ROI as well? The main point here is this: Nitro reported a profit of $176 but in reality it was $60...not bad...but not $176....

[ROK]

woops...Nitro reported hitting 5 of 11....My mistake...I will make the corrections and be back soon. (gulp)

[ROK]

Ahh (wipes sweat) No change to results...

Just simply left out listing R6....2.1--$4.2--1.1.

Sorry though.

[kevb]

Steveb. As you can see from the attached screen shot. IN HK results the column labeled "Odds" is actually the pay off for $1. HK "Odds" of 17 pays HK$170 because their unit bet is HK$10. It is not 17/1 and does not pay HK$180. "Odds" of $10 and above are truncated to the nearest whole $ so the pay off is not always exactly 10 x the displayed "Odds".

[AltonKelsey]

I've never seen so much discussion on what the winners actually paid.

I give up. I'll just assume all Nitro's calculations are 100% accurate and all the 'live' extra winners are totally legit.


Seriously, is there any doubt that no actual money was ever bet, as that would have made the error in calculation eminently clear. Since there was no 'reality check' , the fantasy payoffs persisted.

He couldn't in his wildest dreams have imagined that would go unnoticed.

[steveb]

Steveb. As you can see from the attached screen shot. IN HK results the column labeled "Odds" is actually the pay off for $1. HK "Odds" of 17 pays HK$170 because their unit bet is HK$10. It is not 17/1 and does not pay HK$180. "Odds" of $10 and above are truncated to the nearest whole $ so the pay off is not always exactly 10 x the displayed "Odds".

i know how hong kong works.

i am simply saying that if something(ANYTHING) is 17/1 in hong kong then it is paying 180.
ignoring rake of course.

if something pays 170 in hk then its ODDS were 16/1, NOT 17/1 as is being inferred earlier in this thread.

[AltonKelsey]

No one cares about 17-1 shots, its the 1-1 shots being reported as 2-1 thats the issue

[Winger]

i know how hong kong works.

i am simply saying that if something(ANYTHING) is 17/1 in hong kong then it is paying 180.
ignoring rake of course.

if something pays 170 in hk then its ODDS were 16/1, NOT 17/1 as is being inferred earlier in this thread.


We understand that as well. What we are saying is that if something says win odds 17/1 at Hong Kong, it will say $170 pay, hence 16/1 odds. Nitro doesn't actually check the payouts, and he is interpreting 17/1 win odds, as reported by HKJC as paying HK$180.

[ROK]

"Nitro doesn't actually check the payouts"...Exactly...he even occasionally shortchanges his inflated results by using only the rounded Hong Kong odds.

[steveb]

No one cares about 17-1 shots, its the 1-1 shots being reported as 2-1 thats the issue

please don't speak for me, as in 'no one'.

it's the same error winger was making too.
as in....."If a typical long shot is 17/1 HK, the return is 170.00 as you said"

if it was 17/1 the return would be 180 if it was 1/1 then it would be 20.

i am offering no comment on nitros' figures because i have not, and would not check them.
why would i bother?
he says he does ok, then why not just accept it at face value?

[ROK]

Hi steveb,

Just curious...

You wrote: "17/1 the return would be 180..."

Since we know that Hong Kong round their high odds, why wouldn't a 17-1 pay somewhere around 175?

[steveb]

Hi steveb,

Just curious...

You wrote: "17/1 the return would be 180..."

Since we know that Hong Kong round their high odds, why wouldn't a 17-1 pay somewhere around 175?

i was just responding to 17/1 not equalling a dividend of 170.

if the dividend was 175 then it would have paid odds of 16.5/1

it may say 17 dollars on their results page, but you would still get paid the correct 175(16.5/1) for your hk10 unit.

[ROK]

Ok, thanks...I asked that because on 11/30 in Race 5, #11 Pearl Furu was listed at 17-1 odds and paid 175.5...

Again, thanks...goodnight.

[Nitro]

Hi Winger.
(I also posted this same response to your comment on the other thread.)

Thanks for taking the time to offer another perspective to the Dutch treatment I’ve presented. As I’ve mentioned before, I ONLY use the HK odds for this purpose because I’m using the HK tote-board information in real time. When I presented the examples of “disparity” between HK$ & U.S.$, I used individual entry odds to show how it breaks down as a final payoff. It was also an attempt to show the varying disparity %’s between very low odds and much higher odds.

2) If the odds on a typical long shot is 17/1 in HK the return is 170.00 HK$.
In the U.S. the return is 170/5 or $34.00.
(The normal return on 17/1 odds is $36.00. So, there’s a disparity of $2.00, but only 6%.)
Did you notice the disparity % differences (25% vs. 6%) in items #1 & #2 above? This should explain the motivation of those contradicting and attempting to downplay the Dutch Win results by ALWAYS referring to ONLY those races where there was a heavy favorite involved. Anyone who follows HK racing in earnest the way I do realizes that short-priced Winning favorites are certainly NOT the NORM by any means.
(Ex: Today’s HK (Happy Valley) Odds of Winners:
19/1 - 4/1 - 4.5/1 - 2.7/1 – 17/1 – 24/1 – 3.6/1 – 4/1 = Avg. 9.5/1)

Let's look at an actual example of yours. This is race #9. The race was won by the with odds of 18/1. According to your dutching calculator, you bet $7 on the and $56 total across your 3 entries. That bet would have returned $7 x 18/1 = $126. The HKJC results show that a Win bet on the returned $185. If you normalize that for a $7 bet, you get $185 x 0.7 = $129.5. So there is a $3.50 disparity simply because the odds displayed aren't that precise. You claimed thata $7 win on this horse would pay $137, but that was not true.
BTW your math is a bit off, but there was a slight error: ($7) 3.5 x (18/1) $38 = $133.00 (Not $126)
HK returned $185 because the actual final HK odds were 18.5/1 not 18/1. (3.5 x 18.5 $39 = 136.50)
The HK payout was $185. & 1/5 = $37.00 U.S.
Actual U.S. Results:
Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race #9 3:35am
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 4 Happy Place $37.00 - $7.50
2 2 Prawn Baba - - $2.90
3 11 Club Life - - $7.60
4 9 Ruby Coast - - -
$2.00 QUINELLA 2-4 $41.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA 4-2-11 $2,080.60
R#9 - 2-3 W/ 4-5-7-11........Results: 4-2-11-9 (3rd choice Early-$41 Quin/$2,080 Tri & Live)
(Dutch Calculation w/HK Odds)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 18/1 ) - $81.00 – ($40.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 12.0 18.0 BET PRF
$7 $26 $38
$38 $11 $7 $56 $81 145%
$137 $137 $137
($7.00) 3.5 x 38/1 = 133.00 / 5 = $26.60 US
The actual final HK odds were 18.5/1 not 18/1. (3.5 x 18.5 $39 = 136.50)


(Dutch Calculation w/U.S. Odds)
Dutch – 2 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 12/1 ) – 4 ( 17.5/1 )

LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF %
1.6 12.0 17.5
$5 $26 $37
$37 $7 $5 $50 $47 94%
$96 $96 $96

BTW I’m glad you chose Race #9 because it includes a short-priced entry in the Dutch calculation. As I mentioned, anytime that occurs there’s a greater disparity in the results. The very next race (#10) is another example of a HK race without a short-priced favorite selected. It demonstrates what I was trying to explain with this earlier statement: But if so, you’ve conveniently left out one minor factor: Those 3-entry odds reductions and variations across the board also impact the initial Dutching calculations in terms of $ amounts to be bet and $ lost. You CAN’T have it just ONE WAY!

Hong Kong Sha Tin - Race #10 4:10am
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1 3 People's Knight $22.70 - $6.50
2 12 Beat The Clock - - $2.30
3 7 Beauty Kingdom - - $3.50
4 6 Winfield - - -
$2.00 QUINELLA 3-12 $21.70
$2.00 TRIFECTA 3-12-7 $281.40

R#10 - 1-3 W/ 7-12-4-2........Results: 3-12-7-6 (2nd choice Early $22 Quin/$281 Tri & Live)
(Dutch Calculation w/HK Odds)
Dutch – 1 ( 17/1 ) – 3 ( 11/1 ) – 7 ( 5.4/1 ) - $162.00 – $122.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.4 11.0 17.0 BET PRF
$13 $24 $36
$36 $19 $13 $68 $162 239%
$230 $230 $230
(Dutch Calculation w/U.S. Odds)

LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF %
4.2 11.4 16.0
$10 $25 $34
$45 $19 $14 $78 $156 200%
$234 $236 $238 %

Notice the O.A. Profit disparity between these 2 races:
Race #9 – 145% versus 95% = 50% & Amt. Bet difference 12% less
Race #10 – 239% versus 200% = 39% & Amt. Bet difference 14% more

So of course, right away anyone would say that’s a big drop in Profit. Sure when you look at it from one side it appears that way, but Profit (ROI) is a measurement Net Profit/Cost (Amt Bet).
When measuring an O.A. Profit margin between HK$ & US$ the disparities of both sides of the fraction have to be factored.

Aside from all of this (which may be immaterial to anyone not interested money management) I would only suggest the following:
If you’re O.A. hit frequency is 45%
And your average/race Profit margin is consistently higher than 45%
And you pass on all races with only a 50% profit margin or less.
Guess what? You’re making money!

[Winger]

Update:

The chart below covers the last 10 race days in HK and ALL 92 races.
It reveals the following about the Top 3 pre-race selections:

1) Overall hit frequency of 52 %
2) Basic Dutching of EVERY race totaled $6,809 Bet w/a Net Profit of $2,371 and Profit margin of 35%.
3) The number of consecutive hits = (5) and the number of consecutive misses – (4)
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50% (only 1 of 82 so far).
5) Considering the 52% hit frequency, a greater Profit margin can certainly be realized by:
……a) Avoid playing later races after hitting enough early races to reach 50% of the races carded.
……b) Avoid playing later races after reaching a desired monetary goal.
................In other words its NOT necessary to play every race!

Keep in mind that all these results are based on Dutching these 3 early selections with the final odds.

.............................For Full Chart - Scroll Right-------------------------------->

TK DATE R1 Bt P$L R2 Bt P$L R3 Bt P$L R4 Bt P$L R5 Bt P$L R6 Bt P$L R7 Bt P$L R8 Bt P$L R9 Bt P$L R10 Bt P$L R11 Bt P$L T-BET$ T-PRF$ T-PRF%
HV 9/21 1800 T 43 (43) 1800 T 33 22 1200 T 30 20 1650 T 30 (30) 1200 T 43 48 1200 T 36 33 1200 T 64 47 1650 T 31 (31) 310 66 21%

ST 9/25 1200 T 57 (57) 1600 T 58 34 1400 T 137 350 1200 T 149 (149) 1200 D 101 151 1400 T 45 (45) 1200 D 95 (95) 1200 Y 76 56 1600 T 70 (70) 1400 T 84 111 872 286 33%

HV 9/28 1650 T 49 67 1200 T 136 270 1650 T 104 262 1200 T 43 68 1000 T 77 (77) 1800 T 154 (154) 1200 T 42 (42) 1650 T 100 (100) 705 294 42%

ST 10/1 1400 T 84 90 1800 T 96 111 1400 T 76 (76) 1600 T 33 (33) 1200 T 71 (71) 1200 T 96 58 1200 T 64 177 1000 T 93 51 1400 T 156 217 1400 T 98 (98) 1200 T 66 (66) 933 360 39%

HV 10/5 1800 T 52 (52) 1200 T 58 (58) 1200 T 62 46 1200 T 82 118 1650 T 73 64 1650 T 91 149 1650 T 65 (65) 1200 T 102 84 585 286 49%

ST 10/8 1200 T 64 58 1200 T 84 118 1200 T 75 (75) 1400 T 87 143 1650 D 46 (46) 1650 T 42 (42) 1000 T 79 72 1600 T 59 (59) 1200 T 46 (46) 1400 T 77 196 659 319 48%

HV 10/12 1650 T 98 100 1200 T 80 96 1650 T 92 64 1200 T 86 (86) 1650 T 88 167 1000 T 38 (38) 1800 T 75 (75) 1200 T 89 (89) 646 139 22%

ST 10/16 1000 T 60 30 1600 T 82 58 1400 T 111 177 1200 T 82 82 1400 T 73 (73) 1600 T 62 (62) 1800 T 100 170 1200 T 100 110 1400 T 72 90 1000 T 60 (60) 1400 T 150 114 952 636 67%

HV 10/19 1000 T 51 (51) 1200 T 51 (51) 1200 T 83 (83) 1200 T 71 204 1650 T 34 (34) 1650 T 48 (48) 1200 T 75 61 1200 T 30 (30) 443 (32) (-7%)

ST 10/23 1200 D 51 86 1200 T 56 (56) 1400 T 101 379 1400 T 57 (57) 1200 D 55 (55) 1200 T 56 48 1200 T 59 (59) 1600 T 61 (61) 1600 T 94 (94) 1800 T 114 (114) 704 17 2%


The Dutching summary race day details for Sha Tin 10/23/16 :
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=134156&page=1


Nitro,

I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.

Wagered Returned Net Profit Margin
Day 01 $376.90 $196.00 $(180.90) -48%
Day 02 $783.72 $710.00 $(73.72) -9%
Day 03 $634.85 $701.00 $66.15 10%
Day 04 $614.56 $617.00 $2.44 0%
Day 05 $407.53 $453.00 $45.47 11%
Day 06 $611.24 $612.00 $0.76 0%
Day 07 $315.93 $344.00 $28.07 9%
Day 08 $750.16 $778.00 $27.84 4%
Day 09 $394.28 $323.00 $(71.28) -18%
Day 10 $893.53 $695.00 $(198.53) -22%
Total $5,782.70 $5,429.00 $(353.70) -6%



I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.

[Nitro]

I’m not sure why this thread popped up again w/o any additional comment, but I gives me the opportunity to repeat my post (below) from anther HK thread. Yes, there is a difference between US$ odds and HK$ odds. But I’ll say this one more time, this entire thread was simply a demonstration of a Dutching scheme that evolved from someone asking a basic question about making money from the selections posted other than playing Quinellas, Triples or just straight Win/Place bets. If there’s a question in anyone’s mind about the results I’ve posted, just think of them from the perspective of the HK player. Of course realize that if the combined odds (from any source) on the 3 entries chosen produces a low profit margin then it may not be a worthwhile play. It’s that simple!


Nitro,
I fixed your dutch calculator to work with HK odds, since it was written for US odds. I then reran your first 10 days through the calculator, and these were my results.

Wagered Returned Net Profit Margin
Day 01 $376.90 $196.00 $(180.90) -48% I've attached my validation. As you can see, the difference is a lot bigger than you thought.
Hi Winger
You might have tried to fix the Dutch calculator for US returns by incorporating US$ odds versus HK$ odds, but unfortunately you’ve completely failed to observe one of the basic guide lines for even making any Dutch play worthwhile. I’ve posted this same line item on EVERY Summary page.
4) With known hit frequency of 52% avoid races w/ Profit margin of less then 50%

You've apparently completely ignored the fact that when the combined odds (no matter where they’re coming from) on the 3 entries to be Dutched are lowered, the O.A. Profit margin % is also significantly reduced.

So in actuality your so-called “validation sheet” is nothing more than a list of numbers without any actual validation showing the Dutch calculations themselves.
For the fun of it I thought it might be interesting to see just how invalid it might be.

I realize this may burst our group’s little bubble, but I’m sure none of them bothered to take the time to check out your calculations. Yet they’ll sure enough jump on any superficial bandwagon thinking that they’ve uncovered some dramatic impropriety. :D :D :D

Dutching Calculations for DAY 1 – 9/21/16 using US$ odds.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9…………Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.4/1 ) – 1 ( 6.8/1 ) - ($37.00) – ($37.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 6.8 7.4 BET PRF
$10 $16 $17
$17 $10 $10 $37 $44 119%
$81 $81 $81
R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12 ………..Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 2.5/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.5 2.7 4.1 BET PRF
$7 $7 $10
$10 $10 $7 $27 $9 33%
$36 $36 $36
R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2 …………Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 0.8/1 ) – 4 ( 6.8/1 ) – 7 ( 5.7/1 ) - $0.00 – ($37.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
0.8 5.7 6.8 BET PRF
$4 $13 $16
$16 $4 $4 $23 $5 20%
$28 $28 $28
R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10 ……….Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 11.3/1 ) – 9 ( 1.6/1 ) – 3 ( 42/1 ) - ($42.00) – ($79.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.6 11.3 42.0 BET PRF
$5 $25 $86
$33 $7 $2 $42 $44 104%
$86 $86 $86
R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9…………..Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 5.9/1 ) – 3 ( 3.8/1 ) – 5 ( 3.8/1 ) - $29.00 – ($50.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 3.8 5.9 BET PRF
$10 $10 $14
$14 $14 $10 $37 $29 78%
$66 $66 $66
R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9 ………...Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) – 12 ( 3.8/1 ) - $17.00 – ($33.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 3.8 5.2 BET PRF
$8 $10 $12
$12 $10 $8 $30 $17 58%
$47 $47 $47
R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4 ………….Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.7/1 ) – 2 ( 2.1/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) - $0.00 – ($33.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.7 2.1 13.0 BET PRF
$5 $6 $28
$28 $24 $5 $58 $18 31%
$76 $76 $76
R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9………..Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 2.2/1 ) – 8 ( 12/1 ) – 12 ( 3.1/1 ) – $0.00 – ($47.00)
PASS – Profit margin Below 50%
LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.0 3.0 12.0 BET PRF
$6 $8 $26
$13 $10 $3 $26 $13 50%
$39 $40 $39

The original Dutching calculations using the HK odds from 9/21/16 are on this link:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=133557&page=2&pp=15

SUMMARY

HK RESULT US RESULT
PROF% ACTION HK$ PROF% ACTION US$
R1 155 PLAY ($43) 119 PLAY ($37)
R2 67 PLAY $22 33 PASS $0
R3 66 PLAY $20 20 PASS $0
R4 193 PLAY ($30) 104 PLAY ($42)
R5 112 PLAY $48 78 PLAY $29
R6 92 PLAY $33 58 PLAY $17
R7 72 PLAY $47 31 PASS $0
R8 94 PLAY ($31) 50 PASS $0
TOTALS 5 OF 8 $66 2 OF 4 ($33)
BETTING $310 BETTING $146
P$L% 21% P$L% -23%

As you can see the actual loss of only 23% is less than 1/2 of what’s been erroneously suggested on this particular day. Since this so-called “validation” represents the worst loss of the 10 days listed, I plan on checking the other race days, because I suspect to find similar disparities.

So while the peanut gallery is having their jollies, they unwittingly compromised themselves by making more foolish statements. But that’s fine! I always enjoy a good laugh myself. In fact I find it especially amusing that it’s been conveniently forgotten that on the day of this thread (using US odds) the Profit margin was up 49%. I guess everyone is doing so well that it must be minuscule by comparison. Now that's a laugh! :lol:

[Winger]

Same reply I gave you in the other thread.

Nitro,

This has been updated for only races with a profit margin >50%.

Wagered Returned Net Margin Plays Hits Rate
Day 01 $268.88 $56.00 $(212.88) -79% 5 1 20%
Day 02 $729.14 $639.00 $(90.14) -12% 8 3 38%
Day 03 $599.36 $701.00 $101.64 17% 7 3 43%
Day 04 $509.28 $556.00 $46.72 9% 7 4 57%
Day 05 $164.83 $263.00 $98.17 60% 3 2 67%
Day 06 $434.90 $508.00 $73.10 17% 7 4 57%
Day 07 $224.42 $313.00 $88.58 39% 4 3 75%
Day 08 $534.12 $555.00 $20.88 4% 7 5 71%
Day 09 $273.79 $227.00 $(46.79) -17% 5 1 20%
Day 10 $845.42 $634.00 $(211.42) -25% 9 3 33%
Total $4,584.13 $4,452.00 $(132.13) -3% 62 29 47%




Also, in your example above, you miscalculated your profit margin. On the last race, which you tossed, the US Odds were 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, which equates to a 53% profit margin which is not a pass. So your actual profit margin for that day was -79%. So your profit margin for races with a PRF% >50% was worse than if you played every race, not better.

[ebcorde]

Same reply I gave you in the other thread.

Nitro,

This has been updated for only races with a profit margin >50%.

Wagered Returned Net Margin Plays Hits Rate
Day 01 $268.88 $56.00 $(212.88) -79% 5 1 20%
Day 02 $729.14 $639.00 $(90.14) -12% 8 3 38%
Day 03 $599.36 $701.00 $101.64 17% 7 3 43%
Day 04 $509.28 $556.00 $46.72 9% 7 4 57%
Day 05 $164.83 $263.00 $98.17 60% 3 2 67%
Day 06 $434.90 $508.00 $73.10 17% 7 4 57%
Day 07 $224.42 $313.00 $88.58 39% 4 3 75%
Day 08 $534.12 $555.00 $20.88 4% 7 5 71%
Day 09 $273.79 $227.00 $(46.79) -17% 5 1 20%
Day 10 $845.42 $634.00 $(211.42) -25% 9 3 33%
Total $4,584.13 $4,452.00 $(132.13) -3% 62 29 47%




Also, in your example above, you miscalculated your profit margin. On the last race, which you tossed, the US Odds were 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, which equates to a 53% profit margin which is not a pass. So your actual profit margin for that day was -79%. So your profit margin for races with a PRF% >50% was worse than if you played every race, not better.


why you arguing with this A-hole???!!! . let him think he's an Einstein. Male chauvinists like him are a dime a dozen.

[highnote]

if it's 17/1 and a unit is hk10, then the return is hk180 and 170 profit per unit.
i have no idea what the subject is, but 17/1 implies 17 chances of losing and one of winning, so the return would be 180 for 10 dollars.

This is an old thread, but the part about the odds was interesting to me and the way Hong Kong displays the odds on their tote board is different than the way the U.S. racetracks display odds. I am hopeful my post will be helpful to those new to HK racing.

I think I am correct in saying that 4/1 US odds is displayed in HK as 5/1. And 3/2 US odds is displayed in HK as 2.5/1

Another related thought about odds:

The easiest way I have found of calculating odds is by using this equation:

The Probability of Losing ÷ The Probability of Winning

Let's say a handicapper thinks a horse has 60% chance of losing and a 40% chance of winning. The handicapper gives this horse odds of 3/2.

If the tote board shows odds of 4/1 on the same horse then the handicapper might have a good bet because the tote board is saying that the horse has an 80% of losing and a 20% chance of winning.

The interesting thing about comparing the odds of 4/1 to 3/2 is that at 3/2 the horse's probability of losing decreases from 80% to 60% -- a 25% decrease. It's probability of winning increases from 20% to 40% -- a 100% increase.