Using The Race Curve

[Cratos]

Without using the race curve, it is nebulous to speak of speed prediction.

Because what analytic geometry teaches us, the race curve for the racehorse is what's called a polygonal line, i.e., it's made up of several straight line segments (the change in the horse’s direction during the race) of different slopes.

These slopes are vectors and are measured not in speed, but the velocity attained from the horse’s displacement, not its distance.

It is also useful to understand that in the aggregate, the slopes which make up the race curve when tangentially joined together formed a downward sloping curve and this is consistent with the horse’s performance which shows as distance becomes longer the horse’s ability to maintain its rate of motion depreciates; in effect fatigue sets in because the horse’s energy reserves are being depleted.

However, there are also external impacts to the horse’s race curve and predominantly they come from the environment where the race is being conducted; and can be seen as:

Air Resistance (Aerodynamic Drag)

Air resistance is a force that is caused by air. The force acts in the opposite direction to an object (horse) moving through the air. Air resistance is the frictional force air exerts against the horse. As the horse moves, air resistance slows it down. The faster the horse's motion, the greater the air resistance will be exerted against it; although “drafting” can reduce this effect somewhat.

Air resistance affects all moving objects, from airplanes, rockets, and trains to cars, bicycles, and even living things (racehorses). Air resistance is the resistance against the air, which decreases the speed of the moving object; in this case, the racehorse.

Surface Resistance

The kinetic friction resistance in horseracing is an opposing force that is created whenever the horse’s hooves with their shoes move in contact with the racetrack surface.

Therefore, the often used phrase, “track bias” when referring to how the racetrack surface affects the speed performance of the racehorse should be correctly termed “surface resistance” if we are speaking solely of the track racing surface (dirt, turf, or poly). This surface resistance is the kinetic friction resistance between the surface of the horse’s shoes and the surface of the racetrack.

The resistance from Kinetic friction always opposes the motion or attempted motion of the horse while it is moving across the race track surface and the amount of resistance is dependent on the texture of the shoes on the horse and the track surface; and this resistance is also dependent on the amount of contact force (i.e., the normal force) is being exerted between the two surfaces.

Furthermore, this resistive force from kinetic friction against the horse’s forward movement increases when the racetrack surface material is relatively soft causing much of the resistance to the horse’s movement to be by deformation or a plowing effect in the surface. A soft surface will deform when under pressure (the force of the horse’s weight) and this deformation increases the resistance to motion.

Wind Resistance

What to do about calculating the wind force faced by the horse during the race comes up from time to time.

However, the problem with figuring out this wind force is that it is not just the wind, but the surface wind force because it is that force what affects the horse’s forward movement the most. It must be understood that in the realm of things near the ground, the wind is very erratic due to interaction with ground features.

This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

[ReplayRandall]

Without using the race curve, it is nebulous to speak of speed prediction.

Because what analytic geometry teaches us, the race curve for the racehorse is what's called a polygonal line, i.e., it's made up of several straight line segments (the change in the horse’s direction during the race) of different slopes.

These slopes are vectors and are measured not in speed, but the velocity attained from the horse’s displacement, not its distance.

It is also useful to understand that in the aggregate, the slopes which make up the race curve when tangentially joined together formed a downward sloping curve and this is consistent with the horse’s performance which shows as distance becomes longer the horse’s ability to maintain its rate of motion depreciates; in effect fatigue sets in because the horse’s energy reserves are being depleted.

However, there are also external impacts to the horse’s race curve and predominantly they come from the environment where the race is being conducted; and can be seen as:

Air Resistance (Aerodynamic Drag)

Air resistance is a force that is caused by air. The force acts in the opposite direction to an object (horse) moving through the air. Air resistance is the frictional force air exerts against the horse. As the horse moves, air resistance slows it down. The faster the horse's motion, the greater the air resistance will be exerted against it; although “drafting” can reduce this effect somewhat.

Air resistance affects all moving objects, from airplanes, rockets, and trains to cars, bicycles, and even living things (racehorses). Air resistance is the resistance against the air, which decreases the speed of the moving object; in this case, the racehorse.

Surface Resistance

The kinetic friction resistance in horseracing is an opposing force that is created whenever the horse’s hooves with their shoes move in contact with the racetrack surface.

Therefore, the often used phrase, “track bias” when referring to how the racetrack surface affects the speed performance of the racehorse should be correctly termed “surface resistance” if we are speaking solely of the track racing surface (dirt, turf, or poly). This surface resistance is the kinetic friction resistance between the surface of the horse’s shoes and the surface of the racetrack.

The resistance from Kinetic friction always opposes the motion or attempted motion of the horse while it is moving across the race track surface and the amount of resistance is dependent on the texture of the shoes on the horse and the track surface; and this resistance is also dependent on the amount of contact force (i.e., the normal force) is being exerted between the two surfaces.

Furthermore, this resistive force from kinetic friction against the horse’s forward movement increases when the racetrack surface material is relatively soft causing much of the resistance to the horse’s movement to be by deformation or a plowing effect in the surface. A soft surface will deform when under pressure (the force of the horse’s weight) and this deformation increases the resistance to motion.

Wind Resistance

What to do about calculating the wind force faced by the horse during the race comes up from time to time.

However, the problem with figuring out this wind force is that it is not just the wind, but the surface wind force because it is that force what affects the horse’s forward movement the most. It must be understood that in the realm of things near the ground, the wind is very erratic due to interaction with ground features.

This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

[thaskalos]

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

As usual...no point.

[dansan]

How's that angle working for you :lol:

[whodoyoulike]

...
This interaction can make it difficult to really know what speed is effectively acting on a horse whose average height proximity to the ground is about 5 feet. The generic wind pressure formula is accurate enough for our use, but figuring out what wind speed to use with it is not as straightforward as we would like.

Therefore, for horseracing handicapping, the wind force calculation is based on adjusting the standard wind speed and direction of approximately 10 meters above the racetrack surface in the United States to a height of 1 ½ meters with a 1.28 multiplier which will increase the wind speed given by the local forecast where the racetracks located.

Is the 5 feet important and how did you calculate it?

Also, I'm guessing you're referring to the average height of the head and body in motion but, if it's not 5 feet will it affect the calculations?

[Pensacola Pete]

The wind speed isn't as important with racehorses as it is with objects with a wider width. For horse racing, wind speed and wind resistance is more important in standardbred racing, because of the backdraft on the sulky.

Surface resistance is very important, but you need to include the horse's hoof size. Bigger hoofs will encounter more resistance on a wet yielding track (and the horse will decelerate faster) and will do better on firm turf (and glide over the ground better). The opposite is true of smaller hooves.

[Cratos]

Is the 5 feet important and how did you calculate it?

Also, I'm guessing you're referring to the average height of the head and body in motion but, if it's not 5 feet will it affect the calculations?
I used the average height of a racehorse which the Jockey Club lists as 15 hands or 60 inches (5 Feet)

[Cratos]

The wind speed isn't as important with racehorses as it is with objects with a wider width. For horse racing, wind speed and wind resistance is more important in standardbred racing, because of the backdraft on the sulky.

Surface resistance is very important, but you need to include the horse's hoof size. Bigger hoofs will encounter more resistance on a wet yielding track (and the horse will decelerate faster) and will do better on firm turf (and glide over the ground better). The opposite is true of smaller hooves.
You are correct because as the surface becomes larger so does the "force."

However this is not about taking an isolated "resistance" like the wind force (not the wind speed).

It is simply about calculating the aggregate environmental "forces" that impeded the horse's motion during the race.

[Cratos]

How's that angle working for you :lol:
It works very well in our model

[Cratos]

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?
I am surprised by your response, because from the reading of your posts, you come across as being thoughtful.

Now to answer your question, it is about calculating the forces which slow down the horse's motion performance.

This is not some "creative idea" by me; these calculations has been around as long as math and science.

[CosmicWon]

Mr. Cratos, I'm much more into biomechanics as they relate to ability and speed more so than external factor minutea but frankly I feel like studies such as your would be very adept for use at 2yo-in-training sales because the environment is so much more controlled.

Breeze shows ostensibly measure a furlong in 1/5s only, so instead of :9.561s we get :9.2s. If you could massage your formulas into a format that applies to those types of sales I almost guarantee important people would pay to use your data.

As an aside, have you thought of including the attributes of shoes themselves (studs, toe grabs, Queens Plate vs Bar, etc) on your surface friction algorithm? Those types of things and the depths of the prongs really do give grip on the same way spikes help a 100M runner even on a dry track.

And since someone else mentioned your 60'' height input as an avg for Tbreds, you might want to reconsider moving your parameters to 16-16.2 hands (64-66'') because the 15 hand # would make the avg Thoroughbred only 2'' taller than a pony (by definition an equine of 14.2 hands and below) and there is no way that's correct (unless they included foals in the height avg). Just food for thought.

[pandy]

Mr. Cratos, I'm much more into biomechanics as they relate to ability and speed more so than external factor minutea but frankly I feel like studies such as your would be very adept for use at 2yo-in-training sales because the environment is so much more controlled.

Breeze shows ostensibly measure a furlong in 1/5s only, so instead of :9.561s we get :9.2s. If you could massage your formulas into a format that applies to those types of sales I almost guarantee important people would pay to use your data.

As an aside, have you thought of including the attributes of shoes themselves (studs, toe grabs, Queens Plate vs Bar, etc) on your surface friction algorithm? Those types of things and the depths of the prongs really do give grip on the same way spikes help a 100M runner even on a dry track.

And since someone else mentioned your 60'' height input as an avg for Tbreds, you might want to reconsider moving your parameters to 16-16.2 hands (64-66'') because the 15 hand # would make the avg Thoroughbred only 2'' taller than a pony (by definition an equine of 14.2 hands and below) and there is no way that's correct (unless they included foals in the height avg). Just food for thought.


BREEZEFIGS, which are available on DRF.COM, create a figure and stride length for the two year in training breezes at the sales. Their data is very good and statistically proven.

[FakeNameChanged]

What is your point?? This old rehashed material is what we've seen from you for years. Again, what is your point?

My WWII Uncle Dick would have been a sage on here, He used to recite, "The angle of the dangle is directly proportional to the...."

[Robert Fischer]

keep working with it. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:


we don't all have to agree

[Arapola]

Please contact NASA. This will be very useful information when they attempt to land the first Race Horse on Mars.

[rsetup]

I'm amazed. :bang:

[Cratos]

Mr. Cratos, I'm much more into biomechanics as they relate to ability and speed more so than external factor minutea but frankly I feel like studies such as your would be very adept for use at 2yo-in-training sales because the environment is so much more controlled.

Breeze shows ostensibly measure a furlong in 1/5s only, so instead of :9.561s we get :9.2s. If you could massage your formulas into a format that applies to those types of sales I almost guarantee important people would pay to use your data.

As an aside, have you thought of including the attributes of shoes themselves (studs, toe grabs, Queens Plate vs Bar, etc) on your surface friction algorithm? Those types of things and the depths of the prongs really do give grip on the same way spikes help a 100M runner even on a dry track.

And since someone else mentioned your 60'' height input as an avg for Tbreds, you might want to reconsider moving your parameters to 16-16.2 hands (64-66'') because the 15 hand # would make the avg Thoroughbred only 2'' taller than a pony (by definition an equine of 14.2 hands and below) and there is no way that's correct (unless they included foals in the height avg). Just food for thought.
That is a good suggestion and having a constructed predictive model that is very adaptive for changing math and statistical equations I will implement your suggested values for the horse’s height and run some tests at Keeneland, Belmont, and Santa Anita.

However it should be noted that in our model, the Reference Plane which accepts the wind/drag force is one square meter centered about the cross-section of the horse’s body.

[Cratos]

Please contact NASA. This will be very useful information when they attempt to land the first Race Horse on Mars.
Why the cynicism? It is okay if you disagree, but at least show that you have the understanding to support your disagreement.

I intentionally didn't use any high level math or statistical formulas which you might desire to avoid the so-called "talking down to us" comments.

For instance, when I was in college many, many years ago I was taught to find the velocity from a record of the distance we use what is called differentiation, and it is the central idea of differential calculus. If we want want to compute the distance from a history of the velocity it is integration, and it is the goal of integral calculus.

[whodoyoulike]

I used the average height of a racehorse which the Jockey Club lists as 15 hands or 60 inches (5 Feet)

But, if you're using this average 5 feet for each horse in your formula then wouldn't the race curve be similar for each horse?

There must be something else affecting the race curve e.g., horse's weight, the use of an average is incorrect etc., all of which seems to be impossible to determine in regards to horse racing IMO.

[whodoyoulike]

Another thought, since the 5 feet is measured standing (I'm assuming which seems short to me) when any animal is running or in motion their height is shorter vs standing height.

The 5 feet seems important in your formula or maybe it really isn't is this true?

[NorCalGreg]

LOL....what was that "Uncle Dick" comment whodo? hahahahahaha....okay I'm over that now

I just wanted to ask---the proximity "to the ground"--is how height is measured, Cratos? That's funny, even if you were serious.

I'm sorry to keep poking fun at ya....but this was in your opening statement.

BTW...my spell checker constantly tells me your "handle" is misspelled--should be KRATOS. Just threw that out for a fun fact :)

have a good weekend-NCG

[FakeNameChanged]

My WWII Uncle Dick would have been a sage on here, He used to recite, "The angle of the dangle is directly proportional to the...."
Cratos, My apologies for the snide remark. I will have to reread your original comments a few times to see if it sinks in.

[NorCalGreg]

Cratos, My apologies for the snide remark. I will have to reread your original comments a few times to see if it sinks in.

Yeah....pretty disgusting man

[Cratos]

But, if you're using this average 5 feet for each horse in your formula then wouldn't the race curve be similar for each horse?

There must be something else affecting the race curve e.g., horse's weight, the use of an average is incorrect etc., all of which seems to be impossible to determine in regards to horse racing IMO.
No, the "race curve" is an individually determined performance by performance of each horse from the vectors established in each race by the horse; its shape changes with respect to each horse’s race performance against the environmental impacts.

The sum of the curves from a set of those performances will show the curve for a given period.

However, you can normalize the horse's historical performance by distance, surface, etc., and get an overall historical race curve.

[Cratos]

LOL....what was that "Uncle Dick" comment whodo? hahahahahaha....okay I'm over that now

I just wanted to ask---the proximity "to the ground"--is how height is measured, Cratos? That's funny, even if you were serious.

I'm sorry to keep poking fun at ya....but this was in your opening statement.

BTW...my spell checker constantly tells me your "handle" is misspelled--should be KRATOS. Just threw that out for a fun fact :)

have a good weekend-NCG
I love your sense of humor even if your comprehension is lacking.

[FakeNameChanged]

LOL....what was that "Uncle Dick" comment whodo? hahahahahaha....okay I'm over that now

I just wanted to ask---the proximity "to the ground"--is how height is measured, Cratos? That's funny, even if you were serious.

I'm sorry to keep poking fun at ya....but this was in your opening statement.

BTW...my spell checker constantly tells me your "handle" is misspelled--should be KRATOS. Just threw that out for a fun fact :)

have a good weekend-NCG

Greg, seriously his name was Dick Boger, and he was my uncle. His stories about fighting the Japanese are classic.

[Cratos]

Another thought, since the 5 feet is measured standing (I'm assuming which seems short to me) when any animal is running or in motion their height is shorter vs standing height.

The 5 feet seems important in your formula or maybe it really isn't is this true?
I didn’t create the “15 Hands” average height of a racehorse; as stated, it came from the info I gathered from the Jockey Club.

If you believe it is too low, then suggest another value as another poster did.

However, what is missing is the location of the reference plane; that is the critical surface of consequence.

The center of the reference plane is approximately 4.14 feet from the racetrack's surface with its top edge being 8.28 feet and its square footage is 10.8 SF.

[whodoyoulike]

I didn’t create the “15 Hands” average height of a racehorse; as stated, it came from the info I gathered from the Jockey Club.

If you believe it is too low, then suggest another value as another poster did.

However, what is missing is the location of the reference plane; that is the critical surface of consequence.

The center of the reference plane is approximately 4.14 feet from the racetrack's surface with its top edge being 8.28 feet and its square footage is 10.8 SF.

Sorry about the last post. I read your original last night and forgot about your last paragraph which would have provided my answer.

Still trying to see how I can utilize your ideas in the post. You are raising some insights which for me affects the horse's stamina (which maybe wasn't intended by you). And, this identifying stamina thing is currently my focus.

[EMD4ME]

MY LORD...


YOU GUYS KEEP THEORIZING, QUANTIFYING, FAKE MESMERIZING, ANAL YZING............

I'll keep beating the takeout.

:bang: :bang: :bang:

[Cratos]

Sorry about the last post. I read your original last night and forgot about your last paragraph which would have provided my answer.

Still trying to see how I can utilize your ideas in the post. You are raising some insights which for me affects the horse's stamina (which maybe wasn't intended by you). And, this identifying stamina thing is currently my focus.
I don’t want to sound “picky”, but it is not the horse’s “stamina” that you should be focused on, but the horse’s energy which is measured by the horse’s work; stamina and energy are not equivalent.

Therefore, the measurement of the variables I mentioned: air resistance, surface resistance, and wind force resistance are the components needed to understand in part the expenditure of energy used by the horse during the race.

Each of the components can be measured at the unit level in newtons and one newton is equal to one joule/meter or how much energy the horse expends per meter of work.

[Cratos]

MY LORD...


YOU GUYS KEEP THEORIZING, QUANTIFYING, FAKE MESMERIZING, ANAL YZING............

I'll keep beating the takeout.

:bang: :bang: :bang:
Wow, it amazes me how analytics causes such a stir on this forum.

[EMD4ME]

Wow, it amazes me how analytics causes such a stir on this forum.

I never had anything against analytics BUT....after listening to many gripes about endless threads of blah blah blah WITHOUT SPECIFIC examples, before a race, of HOW someone's unique information is applied, I simply blew a gasket.


YOU can change the perception. Simply discuss specific horses BEFORE a race and how all your amazing info applies to an upcoming race.

Theories are great but if I ever read a book that kept talking about how awesome/intelligent their idea is, WITHOUT examples, it lost my attention.

There are many who blab for light years past eternity but never give anything tangible to this place. (in terms of application of knowledge cited)

I don't think you want to be that person but it does come across that way.

[thaskalos]

I never had anything against analytics BUT....after listening to many gripes about endless threads of blah blah blah WITHOUT SPECIFIC examples, before a race, of HOW someone's unique information is applied, I simply blew a gasket.


YOU can change the perception. Simply discuss specific horses BEFORE a race and how all your amazing info applies to an upcoming race.

Theories are great but if I ever read a book that kept talking about how awesome/intelligent their idea is, WITHOUT examples, it lost my attention.

There are many who blab for light years past eternity but never give anything tangible to this place. (in terms of application of knowledge cited)

I don't think you want to be that person but it does come across that way.

He would offer us a concrete example, but he would be wasting his time...because it takes an engineering degree to understand his analysis, and we don't have one.

[EMD4ME]

He would offer us a concrete example, but he would be wasting his time...because it takes an engineering degree to understand his analysis, and we don't have one.

I'm with you Teacher! :ThmbUp: :lol:

[rsetup]

He would offer us a concrete example, but he would be wasting his time...because it takes an engineering degree to understand his analysis, and we don't have one.

Is that your perspective or what you think his is?

In reality, he regurgitaes information he finds online about physics and statistics/modeling and has zero understanding of racing. Isn't this obvious to everyone?

He's not able to offer a concrete example and fails to see the shortcomings of what he's offering as it applies to racing. Or, he's just jerking everyone's chain (those that take him seriously, that is).

[thaskalos]

Is that your perspective or what you think his is?

In reality, he regurgitaes information he finds online about physics and statistics/modeling and has zero understanding of racing. Isn't this obvious to everyone?

He's not able to offer a concrete example and fails to see the shortcomings of what he's offering as it applies to racing. Or, he's just jerking everyone's chain (those that take him seriously, that is).
I can't totally agree with you.

I think Cratos IS an engineer, and he has spent time in several of our best institutions of higher learning. His horse racing knowledge is clearly limited though...evidenced by the fact that his ultra-complicated handicapping approach allows him to find only 60 bettable races a year. My own handicapping approach, although not NEARLY as sophisticated as his, allows me to wager on about 60 races a WEEK.

Nice guy...but a little "stuffy", IMO. I am convinced that English isn't his native tongue...and hope to God that he isn't as Greek as his username.

[rsetup]

I can't totally agree with you.

I think Cratos IS an engineer, and he has spent time in several of our best institutions of higher learning. His horse racing knowledge is clearly limited though...evidenced by the fact that his ultra-complicated handicapping approach allows him to find only 60 bettable races a year. My own handicapping approach, although not NEARLY as sophisticated as his, allows me to wager on about 60 races a WEEK.

Nice guy...but a little "stuffy", IMO. I am convinced that English isn't his native tongue...and hope to God that he isn't as Greek as his username here..

Let's try it this way: you think physics and math can predict the outcome of a bike race? You think you can predict who will win the TDF next year by assuming an average size for the riders and using some wind info and friction over the course and other shit? :rolleyes:

What do you think is harder to do:

1) train a model to beat the Go world champion?

2) train a model to interpret what's happening in a horse race?

The latter has already been done by a (half) Cypriot.

[thaskalos]

Let's try it this way: you think physics and math can predict the outcome of a bike race? You think you can predict who will win the TDF next year by assuming an average size for the riders and using some wind info and friction over the course and other shit? :rolleyes:

What do you think is harder to do:

1) train a model to beat the Go world champion?

2) train a model to interpret what's happening in a horse race?

The latter has already been done by a (half) Cypriot.

Here is what I think:

It's a lot easier to TALK a good game than to play one. I have been in this game for an awfully long time...and have met more than a few horseplayers who have DAZZLED me with their apparent knowledge and "brilliance". Their theoretical handicapping knowledge dwarfed mine to an extent where I felt downright INFERIOR as a horseplayer.

But then I came to my senses...and realized that they all held regular jobs in the "real world"...whereas I had forgotten what it felt like to work for a "boss". Appearances are deceiving...and the best gamblers aren't necessarily the most impressive-sounding ones.

[Cratos]

I never had anything against analytics BUT....after listening to many gripes about endless threads of blah blah blah WITHOUT SPECIFIC examples, before a race, of HOW someone's unique information is applied, I simply blew a gasket.


YOU can change the perception. Simply discuss specific horses BEFORE a race and how all your amazing info applies to an upcoming race.

Theories are great but if I ever read a book that kept talking about how awesome/intelligent their idea is, WITHOUT examples, it lost my attention.

There are many who blab for light years past eternity but never give anything tangible to this place. (in terms of application of knowledge cited)

I don't think you want to be that person but it does come across that way.
EMD4ME,

I don’t post on this forum to show how many winners I can pick because picking winners beyond the obvious favorites is a very tough ordeal and that is why we limit our bets to 60 per season.

Also we bet about 10 races per year away from NYRA which includes the TC races, the BC races, and sometimes a race at Gulfstream or Keeneland.

However, if we would reduce the amount we wager per bet to $2000, we could make about 600 bets per season which for us is May-October at the NYRA tracks or a bet about every 2 races at Belmont Summer Meet, Saratoga, and Belmont Fall Meet.

In 2017 we are upping the ante a bit to $50,000/bet and 100 bets.

Therefore, my reason for starting this thread was to show that it is the race curve that should be considered in your speed predictions and to do that you need to assess the impacts of the resistances to speed confronted by the horse.

For the poster who doubts my academic credentials and work experience I am okay with that because I find it comical to become personal on an online horseracing forum.

[ultracapper]

EMD4ME,

I don’t post on this forum to show how many winners I can pick because picking winners beyond the obvious favorites is a very tough ordeal and that is why we limit our bets to 60 per season.

Also we bet about 10 races per year away from NYRA which includes the TC races, the BC races, and sometimes a race at Gulfstream or Keeneland.

However, if we would reduce the amount we wager per bet to $2000, we could make about 600 bets per season which for us is May-October at the NYRA tracks or a bet about every 2 races at Belmont Summer Meet, Saratoga, and Belmont Fall Meet.

In 2017 we are upping the ante a bit to $50,000/bet and 100 bets.

Therefore, my reason for starting this thread was to show that it is the race curve that should be considered in your speed predictions and to do that you need to assess the impacts of the resistances to speed confronted by the horse.

For the poster who doubts my academic credentials and work experience I am okay with that because I find it comical to become personal on an online horseracing forum.

I really don't follow any circuit other than SoCal, but I know SoCal is one of the larger handle circuits, and there are only a handful of races a year that a bet like that wouldn't just wipe out the price.

You may be challenged to find 100 races in North America that can absorb that kind of bet without beating yourself up on price.

[Buchan]

EMD4ME,

I don’t post on this forum to show how many winners I can pick because picking winners beyond the obvious favorites is a very tough ordeal and that is why we limit our bets to 60 per season.

Also we bet about 10 races per year away from NYRA which includes the TC races, the BC races, and sometimes a race at Gulfstream or Keeneland.

However, if we would reduce the amount we wager per bet to $2000, we could make about 600 bets per season which for us is May-October at the NYRA tracks or a bet about every 2 races at Belmont Summer Meet, Saratoga, and Belmont Fall Meet.

In 2017 we are upping the ante a bit to $50,000/bet and 100 bets.

Therefore, my reason for starting this thread was to show that it is the race curve that should be considered in your speed predictions and to do that you need to assess the impacts of the resistances to speed confronted by the horse.

For the poster who doubts my academic credentials and work experience I am okay with that because I find it comical to become personal on an online horseracing forum.

i think people would be much more interested in HOW you get set for 50k a race, than in your selection process.
some lessons please.
i can't cop that you can get that much down without killing the prices, ESPECIALLY if they are not "your obvious favourites".

[Cratos]

I really don't follow any circuit other than SoCal, but I know SoCal is one of the larger handle circuits, and there are only a handful of races a year that a bet like that wouldn't just wipe out the price.

You may be challenged to find 100 races in North America that can absorb that kind of bet without beating yourself up on price.

I will take you at your word that $50k would suppress the the odds.

However if you have followed my posts I have always stated that we look to wager at 3-1 or better. Also we are graded stakes bettors which makes it even more difficult to find those type of winning odds, but they are there and in 2015 we found 26 or 43%.

[Cratos]

i think people would be much more interested in HOW you get set for 50k a race, than in your selection process.
some lessons please.
i can't cop that you can get that much down without killing the prices, ESPECIALLY if they are not "your obvious favourites".
We are patience and we keep good records.

For instance, when McGaughey sent out Honor Code for his debut in 2013 at the Spa we had him with a $20k wager at 3-1 (I don’t know if we had put $50k on him at the time if that would have suppressed his odds.)

However, you asked “how do we get set to bet $50k?” It is not easy, but from our records we select horses that we think are ready to win and an example is back to Honor Code who we had to win 3 times last year (one time at 5-2 because his odds dropped after we made the wager) and he delivered. All 3 wagers were at $20k, not the proposed $50k.

[EMD4ME]

EMD4ME,

I don’t post on this forum to show how many winners I can pick because picking winners beyond the obvious favorites is a very tough ordeal and that is why we limit our bets to 60 per season.

Also we bet about 10 races per year away from NYRA which includes the TC races, the BC races, and sometimes a race at Gulfstream or Keeneland.

However, if we would reduce the amount we wager per bet to $2000, we could make about 600 bets per season which for us is May-October at the NYRA tracks or a bet about every 2 races at Belmont Summer Meet, Saratoga, and Belmont Fall Meet.

In 2017 we are upping the ante a bit to $50,000/bet and 100 bets.

Therefore, my reason for starting this thread was to show that it is the race curve that should be considered in your speed predictions and to do that you need to assess the impacts of the resistances to speed confronted by the horse.

For the poster who doubts my academic credentials and work experience I am okay with that because I find it comical to become personal on an online horseracing forum.

Since you're limited to large pools only, can you kindly give us selections on some smaller pool races that you can't bet due to small pool size? (Using the items you have discussed)

[DeltaLover]

Since you're limited to large pools only, can you kindly give us selections on some smaller pool races that you can't bet due to small pool size? (Using the items you have discussed)

Don't bother my friend...


http://i66.tinypic.com/2vsj444.png

[thaskalos]

We are patience and we keep good records.

For instance, when McGaughey sent out Honor Code for his debut in 2013 at the Spa we had him with a $20k wager at 3-1 (I don’t know if we had put $50k on him at the time if that would have suppressed his odds.)



Naw...there is no way a $50K win wager would have suppressed Honor Code's odds in that race.

[EMD4ME]

Naw...there is no way a $50K win wager would have suppressed Honor Code's odds in that race.

There was maybe $300k in win pool for his 1st start. Can someone pull up the date? I'd like to see how much the pool was and what he went off at. Just curious to see how much team cratos impacted the pools

Memory tells me 5/2. Which means he had to have had about $65k to win after takeout...

Hard to believe this

[ReplayRandall]

There was maybe $300k in win pool for his 1st start. Can someone pull up the date? I'd like to see how much the pool was and what he went off at. Just curious to see how much team cratos impacted the pools

Memory tells me 5/2. Which means he had to have had about $65k to win after takeout...

Hard to believe this

https://www.equibase.com/premium/chartEmb.cfm?track=SAR&raceDate=08/31/2013&cy=USA&rn=3

[Exotic1]

There was maybe $300k in win pool for his 1st start. Can someone pull up the date? I'd like to see how much the pool was and what he went off at. Just curious to see how much team cratos impacted the pools

Memory tells me 5/2. Which means he had to have had about $65k to win after takeout...

Hard to believe this

You're taking this too seriously. You'll never see the impact on a chart that reports on real US dollars.

[ultracapper]

Did Honor Code debut in a Graded Stake?

[Cratos]

Did Honor Code debut in a Graded Stake?
No, Honor Code’s debut was August 31, 2013 at the Spa in a MSW at 7F

His winning odds were: $3.25-1

He was second favorite

Gross Mutuel Pool for the race = $432,635

I don’t know the win, place, and show pool breakouts

Our net was $65,000

I hope this satisfy EMD4ME because I hope going forward, posters do not have to justify their winning/losing bets to EMD4ME :D

[CincyHorseplayer]

Here is what I think:

It's a lot easier to TALK a good game than to play one. I have been in this game for an awfully long time...and have met more than a few horseplayers who have DAZZLED me with their apparent knowledge and "brilliance". Their theoretical handicapping knowledge dwarfed mine to an extent where I felt downright INFERIOR as a horseplayer.

But then I came to my senses...and realized that they all held regular jobs in the "real world"...whereas I had forgotten what it felt like to work for a "boss". Appearances are deceiving...and the best gamblers aren't necessarily the most impressive-sounding ones.

I love this post. The last paragraph is total reality. I hold a job in the "Real" world because right now I don't have the confidence to be a man and play for bucks full time. I am putting up great numbers. Can't take that leap yet with so much on the plate. I know my place. Love seeing you tell it like it really is.

[Tom]

So how did you apply the pace curve to a first time starter with no running lines?

[whodoyoulike]

I don’t want to sound “picky”, but it is not the horse’s “stamina” that you should be focused on, but the horse’s energy which is measured by the horse’s work; stamina and energy are not equivalent.

Therefore, the measurement of the variables I mentioned: air resistance, surface resistance, and wind force resistance are the components needed to understand in part the expenditure of energy used by the horse during the race.

Each of the components can be measured at the unit level in newtons and one newton is equal to one joule/meter or how much energy the horse expends per meter of work.

Well, your description is the most accurate of the two. But, from my POV they are equivalent. I'm looking at the reduction in a horse's energy (work) for me is the same as a lack of stamina for the horse which arises at some point during the race.

I think I can see your point but it seems that the slope of the curve which you're able to calculate is only available at least for me after the race has run instead of 10 minutes before the race. Again, for me there just appears to be too many unknown variables.

You must be running a number of simulations for each horse or do you make an assumption of conditions and go with that assumption?

[ReplayRandall]

So how did you apply the pace curve to a first time starter with no running lines?

NOW WE HAVE THE REAL QUESTION BY TOM....

[EMD4ME]

No, Honor Code’s debut was August 31, 2013 at the Spa in a MSW at 7F

His winning odds were: $3.25-1

He was second favorite

Gross Mutuel Pool for the race = $432,635

I don’t know the win, place, and show pool breakouts

Our net was $65,000

I hope this satisfy EMD4ME because I hope going forward, posters do not have to justify their winning/losing bets to EMD4ME :D

When you do what I do, post your ADW stats, then you earn the right to say whatever the hell you want.

I put up my stats and I put up my crushes in advance.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128739&highlight=%2420%2C000

I, personally, have earned the right to say what I said PERIOD

Now, as for you, I have called you out. Post in advance, at least once, how your linear curve austronaut psycho babble engineering linear assessments do truly impact horse racing selections.

If you don't, you might lose the remaining respect others might have for you.

If you do, you earn my respect.

Saying you bet $20K on a horse that won 3 years ago, is no accomplishment.

[EMD4ME]

So how did you apply the pace curve to a first time starter with no running lines?


:) :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[cj]

:) :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Better get this out for when the reply comes.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/9f/27/8d/9f278dc4cc53781d43879f38cf79631d.jpg

[elhelmete]

I've always been curious how one gets accurate, track and day specific measurements of wind speeds/directions, air resistance, and surface resistance.

Not averages.

Not readings from some weather station a few miles away, and certainly more than 4 feet off the ground.

Does anyone make day-of measurements at the track? Sling psychrometer, etc.? Hi-res photographs of horses' cross sections/frontal areas?

And, IMHO, a 3-1 odds floor is sort of like using a divining rod to find water in northern Minnesota.

[EMD4ME]

Better get this out for when the reply comes.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/564x/9f/27/8d/9f278dc4cc53781d43879f38cf79631d.jpg


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:






:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[Cratos]

When you do what I do, post your ADW stats, then you earn the right to say whatever the hell you want.

I put up my stats and I put up my crushes in advance.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128739&highlight=%2420%2C000

I, personally, have earned the right to say what I said PERIOD

Now, as for you, I have called you out. Post in advance, at least once, how your linear curve austronaut psycho babble engineering linear assessments do truly impact horse racing selections.

If you don't, you might lose the remaining respect others might have for you.

If you do, you earn my respect.

Saying you bet $20K on a horse that won 3 years ago, is no accomplishment.

I not seeking bragging rights and I couldn't post the info you requested because it is proprietary.

The info I published in my earlier post was an illustration as an answer to a question from a poster asking how we make our selections; it had nothing to do with “bragging” about winning; that is a false extrapolation on your part.

[EMD4ME]

I not seeking bragging rights and I couldn't post the info you requested because it is proprietary.

The info I published in my earlier post was an illustration as an answer to a question from a poster asking how we make our selections; it had nothing to do with “bragging” about winning; that is a false extrapolation on your part.

1) How can you bet, based on your words, a first time starter?

2) You're thread is about race curves. When did Honor Code show a race curve? In his auction?

3) I give up.

Have a good life and best health Cratos.

[Cratos]

Well, your description is the most accurate of the two. But, from my POV they are equivalent. I'm looking at the reduction in a horse's energy (work) for me is the same as a lack of stamina for the horse which arises at some point during the race.

I think I can see your point but it seems that the slope of the curve which you're able to calculate is only available at least for me after the race has run instead of 10 minutes before the race. Again, for me there just appears to be too many unknown variables.

You must be running a number of simulations for each horse or do you make an assumption of conditions and go with that assumption?
I truly believe that you want to understand this because you are during something similar, but the math to explain this can be confusing.

However, I will try without using math symbols or equations to explain what is going on by stating the change to the horse’s motion and how it is depicted by the slope on the race curve.

Simply stated as a horse runs from point to point during the race there is displacement which is the horse’s change in position along the race curve as a function of time which mathematically in calculus is the derivative or the slope of the line tangent to a point on the race curve.

The rate at which the displacement changes is the velocity.

[Cratos]

1) How can you bet, based on your words, a first time starter?

2) You're thread is about race curves. When did Honor Code show a race curve? In his auction?

3) I give up.

Have a good life and best health Cratos.

All of our bets are not just from "starters."

Incidentally, I am a big Shug fan.

[ReplayRandall]

I respectfully ask the moderators to close down this thread. Cratos has clearly shown that he has told a tall tale that he WON'T answer for.

Congrats to Tom for posting his killer question which exposes Cratos for what he is, has been, and always will be, a BULLSHIT artist....BTW, Whodoyoulike is another fraud, trying to act like he's truly inquisitive, when he's just continuing to be the irritating Troll-fly he's always been..

[cj]

All of our bets are not just from "starters."

Incidentally, I am a big Shug fan.

Randall is right, and this is why the thread was closed. It is trolling pure and simple.