Re-envisioning spot plays

[Bill Cullen]

A good system or spot play isn't about picking winners; its about identifying horses whose money odds are building faster than its winning chances.

Show me a system that both steers people away from a horse and yet identifies a horse with some value relative to the average winning chances expected for that specifc racing scenario.

Ultimately, it's not the impact values that matter, since you can have a positive ROI for a facor with an impact value of less than one.

It's the many mutiple strands of different human psychologies hidden in the collective behavior of the crowd that determines ROI, not impact values.

You need the statistics guys to verify reality for us; to say yea or nay to our dreams and hopes.

But you need poets and storytellers and shamans too, who every once in a while can connect with the collective unconsciousness of the crowd and for a few moments can see a pattern among all those interweaving pathways to the betting windows.



quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Imagination is more important than knowledge
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Albert Einstein

[Secretariat]

Good post Bill.

I am going to be busy in August as I generally play Saratoga every day, but I willl be focusing primarily on horse racing over the next two months.

There is a point you miss about angles, that I'd like to address and that is track specificity. I don't know why this is, but I find that certain tracks seem very friendly to some angles while they fall apart at others. An example is a Stakes to Allowance angle I've been tinkering with. I found this angle over 3 years to be profitable at Belmont over a decent sample, but it fell apart at Santa Anita and Saratoga (although it was profitable at Del Mar).
Why do these angles seem to work at some tracks and just collapse at others? Just the sample size? Perhaps. But most workouts I see are a month or so. Mine cover at least a year up to three year and thousands of races. I know some people are not happy unless they have hundreds of thousands of races.

What I like what you're saying Bill is HOW does one think differently from the crowd to spot overlooked or underreported pieces of information. Bill Quirin was the first I know of who published info regarding Turf Breeding value, Beyer first on Trips, Sartin and Brohamer took pace handicapping to new limits, Quinn on class, Ziemba on tote. Most recently have been the trainer/jovckey specialties.

I am interested on where new ideas are going. Where is the edge? It appears to me that the crowd stil lfoucses heavily on speed and more on pace than a decade ago, and I see more emphasis on trainers and jocks. Supposedly the favorite bias Ziemba mentioned has evened out. so how can one view a race in a way the crowd doesn't. Interested in your ideas. The low Beyer was one such idea. It didn't pan out in my tests, but I like the thinking. I liked Joe Cardello's approach which is finding where today's cycle is leading to. Most people don't think in terms of the "cycling" of the rating to be used ,but seek a mechanical paceline selection. Ragozin's modifcation of the rating seeks an exactitude in an imperfect measurement, but it's his unique approach and seems to bring positve resutls since it is DIFFERENT than what the crowd is doing.

So where do you think one should go?

1. A modified speed approach
2. A cycle examination towards finding today's expect5ed speed
3. A composite factor approach
4. Unusual circumstances or angles
5. The personality factor or trainer and jockey specializations
6. Intuitive capping

Just cuurious on your "imaginative" ideas.

[Bill Cullen]

Secretariat,

Thanks for your extended response.

I believe number four above is the ultimate way to go:

4. Unusual circumstances or angles

I also like what this Cardello guy is saying in his book "Speed to Spare", particularly about lifetime best beyers last out. In a study of a 1000 horses running on the dirt (horses also had to have run within 90 days and had at least 10 starts), 88% of the horses with a best-lifetime-beyer last out ran a lower beyer the next out. 53% of the total sample of the 1000 horses ran 10 points lower or worse in the next out.

The easiest system that pops into my mind from the above study is the following:

Play the favorite on the dirt when the 2nd and 3rd favorites show best-lifetime-beyers last out and the favorite does not show that characteristic. Make sure the second and third favorites have run within 90 days and have had 10 previous starts.

Let me know what you think.

Thanks,

Bill Cullen

[Secretariat]

Or perhaps play the inverse. When the favorite shows the high lifetime Beyer, skip the favorite and play the 2nd and 3rd favoriite if they meet the recency requirement and do not show the best lifetime Beyer.

[Bill Cullen]

Originally posted by Secretariat
Or perhaps play the inverse. When the favorite shows the high lifetime Beyer, skip the favorite and play the 2nd and 3rd favoriite if they meet the recency requirement and do not show the best lifetime Beyer.

Of course. Plenty of possibilities here.

By the way, i think you'll find the system I posted a little while ago (post one spot play) a little intriguing and reflective of the way I think.

By the way, the first person who responded to it clearly got their math wrong or made a typo when they posted the results of a computer study on the system.

[bettheoverlay]

My favorite angle involves sprinters stretching out to a route. They have to have the highest pace figures and ran close to the pace without actually leading in their last race.

5th at Woodbine today, Hard Currency had much the best pace figures at 7f in his last, had a big win 3 back and 2/7 at the distance. 11 post only drawback, but lasted at 35.60.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Good item to look for. Especially when the crowd follows the same handicapping factors when not appropriate for the circumstances. Like I notice the crowd likes to bet speed and often the last race. Last May the CD crowd was betting horse expected to be off the pace and not early speed, even when early speed was winning.

[Fastracehorse]

The introductory post to this thread was very interesting.

But then I read your Cardello para-phrase. You can't come up with anything more colorful than that?? :)

Just razzing you - the Cardello stats are mildly interesting - but you must admit those theories aren't exactly mind-bending :)

Is there anything else????????????????

Please, my imagination is going nowhere :(

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

That horse didn't have a win in 2003 - but was mtb today.

fffastt

[Hammerhead]

One of my favorites is to play the youngest horses in my exactas in a open race for older horses CBY was good for that yesterday. Look at the contest race Race 9. I missed the exacta due to sloppy cappin on my part. I had no excuse with the exception of being sunburned 4 hinnies and winning the boat pool. At least I managed to get the winner and basically the younger age was my only factor in that race.