HONG KONG/Happy Valley-WED 10/12

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields of 10 to 12 entries in ALL 8 Turf races. There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning: R#2 - R#5 - R#6
I’m not going to be posting any live selections for these races in this morning.
However, my early selections will follow.

Post Time Race #1 – 7:15 AM WED. EST

TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races, try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

[Nitro]

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...........1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf...............3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2 …....7:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #9 & #10)

R#3 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...........2-5 W/ 4-6-8...........8:15 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #9 & paying special attention to #6 to move up)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf..............4-1 W/ 5-2-8-12…........8:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #10)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf..........5-6 W/ 9-3-1-4............9:15 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #2 & #7)

R#6 - 1000M (5F) Turf..............5-7 W/ 1-2-6-10…........9:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #4)

R#7 - 1800M (9F) Turf...............2-1 W/ 4-3-5-11.........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf................1-3 W/ 2-4-6-7 …....…10:50 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #8 as a possible substitute for #7)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[Nitro]

For any of those who might be considering Dutch Win betting:

I use a very simple Win Dutching calculator (for 2 or 3 entries) .
It’s in MS Excel format and it offers a number of things very quickly right after inputting the odds of the selected entries: (Enter Lowest odds to left)
A) How much to bet on each entry relative to each other
B) Total Bet
C) Total Potential Profit in $ and %
(Note: I would recommend avoiding those races where the Profit % shows less then a 50% margin)

(The Objective is to receive the same $ amount no matter which one wins.)

[kevb]

It's one of those days. J Mo all the time all the way.

[lamboguy]

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...........1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf...............3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2 …....7:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #9 & #10)

R#3 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...........2-5 W/ 4-6-8...........8:15 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #9 & paying special attention to #6 to move up)

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf..............4-1 W/ 5-2-8-12…........8:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #10)

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf..........5-6 W/ 9-3-1-4............9:15 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #2 & #7)

R#6 - 1000M (5F) Turf..............5-7 W/ 1-2-6-10…........9:45 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #4)

R#7 - 1800M (9F) Turf...............2-1 W/ 4-3-5-11.........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf................1-3 W/ 2-4-6-7 …....…10:50 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #8 as a possible substitute for #7)

Good Luck today if you’re playing!$300 Q in the 5th race from top 3 numbers! stupid me i am only playing win :bang:

[Nitro]

It's one of those days. J Mo all the time all the way.
Yep! The first 4 races were all his, but check out the selections and results for Race 5! :ThmbUp:

Note the Name of the winning horse! ;)

[Nitro]

$300 Q in the 5th race from top 3 numbers! stupid me i am only playing win :bang:
Nothing wrong with a $23 Winner!

[Nitro]

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.

BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf................1-3 W/ 2-4-6-7 …....…10:50 AM EST
(I’ll also be watching the action on #8 as a possible substitute for #7)

Some very obvious money movement in this race. Both #4 & #8 saw plenty of action. Moved #4 into the Top 3 and #8 replaced #7. However, I won't use these changes in my final Dutch summary (The Top 3 early picks still produced 50% of today's winning Dutch plays.)

[Nitro]

Update:

If someone decided to play Dutch Win bets using only the Top 3 early picks these were the results:

R#1 - 1-6 W/ 7-5-4-3.............. Results: 1 -6-5-12 (Top choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 1 ( 2.3/1 ) – 6 ( 7.2/1 ) – 7 ( 14/1 ) - $100.00 – $100.00

LOW MID HI TOT BET TOT PRF PRF %
2.3 7.2 14.0
$7 $16 $30
$60 $24 $14 $98 $100 103%
$198 $198 $99

R#2 - 3-1 W/ 5-6-8-2................... Results: 5 -6-4-7 (3rd choice)
Dutch – 3 ( 10/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 5 ( 2.9/1 ) - $96.00 – $196.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 7.2 10.0 BET PRF
$8 $16 $22
$44 $20 $16 $80 $96 113%
$172 $172 $172

R#3 - 2-5 W/ 4-6-8....... Results: 2-5-7-6 (Top choice – Quin)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.8/1 ) –5 ( 5.6/1 ) –4 ( 4.9/1 ) - $64.00 – $260.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 4.9 5.6 BET PRF
$8 $12 $13
$41 $27 $24 $92 $64 69%
$156 $159 $158

R#4 - 4-1 W/ 5-2-8-12......... Results: 12-2-9-3 (Out – 6th choice – Altered w/Live tote)
Dutch – 4 ( 4.1/1 ) – 1 ( 9.6/1 ) – 5 ( 2.6/1 ) - ($86.00) – $174.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 4.1 9.6 BET PRF
$7 $10 $21
$42 $30 $14 $86 $66 76%
$152 $152 $152

R#5 - 5-6 W/ 9-3-1-4......... Results: 9 -6-4-7 (3rd choice – Quin/Tri)
Dutch – 5 ( 3.4/1 ) – 6 ( 28/1 ) – 9 ( 11/1 ) - $167.00 – $341.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.4 11.0 28.0 BET PRF
$9 $24 $58
$58 $21 $9 $88 $167 190%
$255 $255 $255

R#6 - 5-7 W/ 1-2-6-10......... Results: 9-1-11-7 (Out)
Dutch – 5 ( 10/1 ) – 7 ( 2.2/1 ) – 1 ( 6/1 ) - ($38.00) – $303.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.2 6.0 10.0 BET PRF
$6 $14 $22
$22 $10 $6 $38 $32 83%
$70 $70 $70

R#7 - 2-1 W/ 4-3-5-11.......... Results: 12-4-3-8 (Out)
Dutch – 2 ( 18/1 ) – 1 ( 13/1 ) – 4 ( 6.9/1 ) - ($75.00) – $228.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
6.9 13.0 18.0 BET PRF
$16 $28 $38
$38 $21 $16 $75 $225 299%
$300 $300 $300

R#8 - 1-3 W/ 2-4-6-7........Results: 4-5-8-1 (4th choice Early – Altered w/Live tote)
Dutch –1 ( 30/1 ) – 3 ( 18/1 ) – 2 ( 4.2/1 ) - ($89.00) – $139.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.2 18.0 30.0 BET PRF
$10 $38 $62
$62 $17 $10 $89 $233 261%
$322 $322 $322


This was all done using the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 entries in EVERY race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 4 out of 8 races (50%) produced a hypothetical profit of $139 after betting $557 or a 25% profit margin.

Betting thought: Some might agree that in retrospect that if the known overall hit frequency with the early picks is averaging between 50 & 60% for a total race card and you already hit 4 out of the first 5 races and there’s only 3 left, that it might be best to either reduce the bet size on the remaining races or stop betting altogether.

Even so, when played and observed properly you can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.

Hope you made some money! ;)

[Hypnotist1]

Can you post or send me the dutching sheet your using in this post? The one I downloaded of this site show different bet sizes

Thank you Hypnotist1