I'll throw a race out there today

[ultracapper]

1st @ SA

:1: Connections may be disappointed to get this one back. A little cat and mouse at the claim box? Trying to recoup whatever they can from an unfortunate claim.

:2: Becoming a home run or nothing type. Needs relaxed first 1/2 mile

:3: Persistent forward running grinder fits this field. Clean trip may be all that's needed.

:4: Best results have been when horse has been raced into shape. Unless new trainer has some idea the previous one didn't, this one is probably a race or two short after the 7 week layoff

:5: If this one could get the lead early he could prove to be real dangerous in this field, however he has little to no gate pop, and the connections have never shown an inclination to see what he could do when winging it.

:6: 8 month layoff cost this horse a couple steps that can't realistically be expected to ever be reclaimed. But this is a good stop on his way down and out. He may be challenged if he has to dig in late. It might not be there anymore.

:7: Very one paced racer needs a backing up field for best.




:3: is the pick

[RedMeansGo]

Nice one UC.

[NorCalGreg]

Hey...way to come off the bench and nail one! :ThmbUp:

[pandy]

Good analysis. A lot of people post picks here with no commentary.

[Nitro]

The worst of it all is he never tells you when he's betting or how he's betting it. He never says, "Hey the board is telling me that this is a prime bet and I'm climbing all over it". All we hear is, "If YOU would have done this" with his picks, "YOU'D have this". It's never, "I did this with my picks, and I have this". It's all what if's and coulda's and how you should follow his picks.

I'll be the first to admit that I don't know all the ins and outs of what he's doing and therefore can't tell you how effective it is. But he has no proof of how effective it is either because he never posts any plays, just selections. Two very different things. He reminds us time and again on days his SELECTIONS did well, but never tells us when his PLAYS were successful, nor discusses any of the days when race after race we see "no clue about the long shot placer". And if you pay attention with just one sleepy eye as I do, you know you see plenty of those. He's just as big a BSer as those he accuses of same. He doesn't post PLAYS because what he's doing doesn't seem to give him a real clue when to PLAY.

Selections are a dime a dozen around here.
So hot shot what grand PLAY you make on your fantastic “selection” (above)? Gee wiz for some reason I don't see your bet!

Pal in case you don’t know it yet, you can’t make any type of play until you have made your Selection(s). I guess you also missed the title of this forum: the Selection forum.

Next you’ll be asking for someone to make your bets for you too.

I guess you’ve also missed the comment I frequently make before I start posting picks: (I mean how many times do I have to repeat this message?)
Just so that there’s misunderstanding, I post my best selections for each race.
I’m not posting bets!
My top 2 selections are my Keys. They can be played individually or Dutched if the value is there. I will also use them as Keys in Exactas, Tri’s and Supers. Keying entries in exotics means that they have to at least be in the money with the other picks. I may not even be playing a race if it doesn’t offer any value.
Yes, contrary to the trend around here I’ll post my results too; Win or Lose
I know it might be difficult for some to understand, but the winning results I post are the potential returns for those types of bets had they been made. I don’t make every bet and I certainly don’t play every race.
I’m posting to share information. I certainly don’t have to prove anything to you or anyone else around here. My selections (and their results) speak for themselves.

If you would like me to teach you how play I’ll be glad to help you out, but it’ll cost you - BIG time.

BTW you've apparently also missed ALL of my last (5) Hong Kong threads where I did in fact inform anyone who might be interested on how to PLAY my Top 3 PICKS by Dutching them.
So please get off you high green horsey and learn how to play valid selections properly.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Razor sharp ultracapper :cool:

[Nitro]

Razor sharp ultracapper :cool:

Yep! About as sharp as you are buddy! :rolleyes:

How can you possibly respond to the intelligence of the Peanut Gallery?

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Yep! About as sharp as you are buddy! :rolleyes:

How can you possibly respond to the intelligence of the Peanut Gallery?

You're right man. You're far too easy to draw out, so relax and keep doing whatever it is you do. I am not the one, you understand? It's been a rough day at work and you're looking like an easy target.

[Nitro]

You're right man. You're far too easy to draw out, so relax and keep doing whatever it is you do.
So I guess it was Ultracapper's sharpness that drew you out.
I'll have keep my eye open for these witty posts from now on. I wouldn't want to miss anything that's important for improving my game.

[EMD4ME]

So I guess it was Ultracapper's sharpness that drew you out.
I'll have keep my eye open for these witty posts from now on. I wouldn't want to miss anything that's important for improving my game.

:1: :4: / :2: :3: :5:

6 Horse field.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Results 6 1 5 No clues on winning runner. (except for his last 2 replays which clearly pointed out the runner's troubled trips)

[NorCalGreg]

:1: :4: / :2: :3: :5:

6 Horse field.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Results 6 1 5 No clues on winning runner. (except for his last 2 replays which clearly pointed out the runner's troubled trips)

That's comedy gold right there...take the :1: :2: :3: :4: :5: ---

the :6: wins....and say "no clue on the winner"

I guess not! :D

Nitro, I've been there, brother :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

OMG!!!

This is the best thread I've ever started. I want to say THANKS to ALL the participants. You each made the perfect posts. (Somebody has to bring the arse to the table that's gonna get kicked. Thank you Nitro)

That was a solid kick EMD4Me.

[ultracapper]

I'll throw another one out there.

Columbus Day 5th @ SA

:1: You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this colt, but he was still on a 3f work schedule in mid-August. Missing goals in horse racing isn't the best scenario. If they could have gone earlier, they would have. Another thing you have to hate in horse racing is disappointed connections.

:2: You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this $335K yearling purchase, and he was actually entered at Del Mar, in July 2015, but scratched out of that baby race that was eventually won by the 2016 Preakness champion (Who retired today, if you hadn't seen that yet). Missing goals in horse racing.....................

:3: You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this $370K yearling purchase, and this one actually looks like he may have been ready, but the need for gate works 8/10 and 8/26 make you wonder. The long works may indicate that routes are more the target with this one.

:4: You have to think these connections wanted to make Del Mar with this once promising runner, as they took advantage of both the 2014 Del Mar meets before shelving him for 23 months. The steady work schedule during the Del Mar meet has been replaced by a more maintenance work schedule that may mean they missed their goal. Missing goals in horse racing..........

:5: If gelding this one can turn it entirely around, geld them all. Talamo took what appears to be the "other" Ellis runner over Sadler's colt in the 6 hole. That's food for thought.

:6: This colt is just unable to assert himself at the top of the stretch, and until he does, he is going to be susceptible in the stretch. His paper form is a dangerous tease, and Talamo jumps. Obviously not impossible, but he's got questions.

:7: Off 14 months and comes back running exactly as he did before. Flat in the stretch.

:8: Uhmmm...... (0-19 MSW, 0-14 M2ndStart). Paula, there are reasons for these numbers. Your horse doesn't fit here.

:9: I have less backstretch experience, knowledge, or connections than anybody on this board, but if there is a way to tell that a horse is busting down the stall just by looking at the form, this might be a prime example. 3 weeks ago he posts a "best of everybody on the grounds" 5f bullet work out of the gate. Follows that up with an under the radar work a week ago to get tight for this. Interesting breeding, a trainer that will sneak one in, and a price that should be acceptable. There could be worse bets than this. Watch the tote board and the post parade.

:10: Uhmmm....... (0-19 MSW, 0-11 FTS). Paula, there are reasons for ................



:9: Make this one a careful action pick.

[ReplayRandall]

:9: Make this one a careful action pick.

Agreed.....This is the play, but no lower than 9-2.

[ultracapper]

With a Mandella, Sadler and 2 Ellis's, I'm hoping like 8/1 or even 10/1 when the betting closes.

[RunDustyRun]

Like the :4: ...long layoff but had stellar running lines...ggod works and the connections and jock should ensure a good price

[ultracapper]

Moe Candy picks today to make his point at the 3/16ths pole.

Figures

[NorCalGreg]

Moe Candy picks today to make his point at the 3/16ths pole.

Figures

Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping :ThmbUp:

[RedMeansGo]

Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping :ThmbUp:

Damn right, I follow SoCal racing and this was a nice thread UC had going for a while. How about part deux?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128004&highlight=socal

[ultracapper]

Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping :ThmbUp:

I have to be honest with you Greg, I'm never going to be a high volume player, but watching your thread, I can definitely see the fun factor in your program. And if the user works things out right, can see them cashing many nice tickets. Spreading around like that just isn't my style though.

We'll throw a couple more out next week. It's a great exercise for me.

[EMD4ME]

Throw another out there , UC. I think we all enjoy your style of 'capping :ThmbUp:

Ditto! Love the thought process !

[ultracapper]

I'm just going to throw this one out there because I found it kind of interesting, even though it's only a 5 horse field.

10-20 2nd @ SA

:1: There's only 1 reason a low percentage barn gives a last-out maiden breaker an 8 month vacation. Let's see if she retained her early speed.

:2: She'll plug along, but I don't think this setup is right for her. She really needs to be more forward against these than what I project. However, legitimate back class can equal a couple extra steps early if a horse has any kind of pop. In this case, I don't believe she has the natural early speed to take advantage of her class advantage.

What is wrong with jockey Gonzalez? The kid has made a handful of money the past 12-18 months. Hopefully it hasn't effected him negatively. Worried because he is riding very poor right now. He hasn't looked good.

:3: The connections (D'Amato had her at LosAl, put a 7lb bug that's not winning any riding titles soon up, owners offered her for 40 cents on the $ they paid for her), the public (8/1), and the horsemen (no claim ticket on a D'Amato offered up first out for 40 cents on the $) were all surprised. Now, the connections (D'Amato moves her to SA, the bug handled her nearly flawless, owners protect her), the public (2/5 ML) and the horsemen (protected this time) are all watching. She's trained well for this, but D'Amato is a good horseman that isn't often fooled. These experienced, back class fillies may expose whatever made everybody hesitant first out.

:4: This has always been a fast filly, but refused to ever settle down and relax early for Warren/Black. She looked like a new filly first out for Palma, and showed the speed is there in the final 1/16 of her last. She's trained well, and her races under Warren/Black indicate Palma hasn't hit the bottom with her. There's more under the hood. I have little doubt of that.

As the Estate of Bud Johnston gets disbursed, we've been seeing all sorts of interesting things with these horses. He always bred half way decent animals. This filly is a Cyclotron, a horse that has sired some very fast horses over the years.

:5: This race should be pretty quick around the far turn, and that's when she is going to really be challenged. Hard to imagine she'll be able to get to the 3/16 pole in the necessary position she needs to win, and still have enough punch to get it done.

Selection here is :4: Princess Ashlyn, knowing full well that if :3: G Q Covergirl is the filly she posed as at DelMar, she'll be very difficult to beat.

[ultracapper]

She ran the exact same race. She's able to ease into stride very quickly after leaving the gate.

Very nice.

[ultracapper]

10-23 SA 4th

:1: Lugging in badly in his last, and follow that up with a choppy work out schedule. He always finishes but he very well may not be at his best right now.

:2: He isn't ready to pull this kind of race down yet.

:3: Putting blinkers on to help with the hanging. Prat to Bejarano a wash. He'll have some work to do turning for home.

:4: Perfect jockey change if you're thinking of trying to steal this race.

:5: Habitual hanger. He just flattens out every time.

:6: Another flat finisher

:7: I'll guess that Pedroza is hired to do what he does, be aggressive. He'll need to slow it way, way down, and still won't be able to out run the stalkers.

:8: Looks to still be a work in progress

:9: Needed a trip to NoCal for one of their stroll in the park turf routes to show his best. That won't translate here.

:10: Paula, Paula, Paula. Huhhhhhhhh........



:4: Gary Broad will bet it, but hoping he doesn't just crush the price. Will be prominent up front through out and should be able to dictate things from the 1/2 mile pole on.

[ultracapper]

Better to be lucky than good.

:1: Nailed it

:2: Couldn't have been more wrong

:3: Nailed it

:4: I'm happy TBaze is an experienced journeyman jock. Why he wasn't 3 lengths closer the first 1/2 mile I don't know, but I sure wanted him there. Good job TBaze.

:5: I don't know what the solution for this horse is, but he gets where he has to be at the 1/4 pole, and then, HANG. He should have won this race. Nailed it.

:6: Nailed it (Edit) Didn't nail it. We may never know. Left in the gate.

:7: Nailed it

:8: Nailed it

:9: Nailed it

:10: Nailed it

Quite a run by RMandella/Prat. I've never really noticed RMandella with the quick turn around sprint/route play. He usually gives his FTS a longer time before their second race. He must have loved that work out 10/19. Prat from the :3: to the :2: wasn't much of a hint because his presence in SoCal is due to RMandella. He definitely got the kid started here.

[NorCalGreg]

As always UC -- excellent work :ThmbUp:

[ultracapper]

A little short on time, so I have to take a short cut on presentation.

6th @ SA

:8: Westwood's Wizard - His dirt race of 23Jul16 was his best race. He was stretched out on the turf, where he ran into front runners that were able to run off. Exhale blew up in the 2Oct16 race. He should run the best race of his life today.

:1:Uninvited - He always leaves himself work to do in the lane and is vulnerable to a forward runner that fires at the head of the stretch. He'll pick up major pieces again today.

:6: and :9: . Interesting wild cards in this race. One, or both, very well could make some serious noise on the stretch out, but I think the finish line will be just a little too far away for them today. They both look to be a race away.

[ultracapper]

Tough game. You don't have to miss by much to be totally wrong.

[ultracapper]

9th @ Del Mar

:1: Scratch

:2: You could say she has back class, but I don't know about that. She's been running against better, but, particularly on dirt, not that well. I don't think they're sure what they have, and neither am I. Kind of a wild card.

:3: PHarrington/Almanza is your 3/2 favorite in a 10 horse field at Santa Anita. How do you think that will work out? Exactly as it did 16Oct16. I nearly got seriously paid in that race with Truly Ponti at about 25/1. 2yo form has fooled many a handicapper over the years, and will continue to until the last strip mall is built where they used to run the ponies.

:4: This filly's form was deteriorating in NoCal before Greenman got her on the cheap. He found some life left in her for a couple races, but she's heading south again.

:5: When a trainer like REllis gives up on them like he gave up on her, you know things aren't right. She tries, but she's not that fast. At this level, effort can get you a long way, but the winner's circle might be elusive here. Wouldn't be surprised to see her give a good account of herself as she will at least be forward.

:6: She should ensure an honest pace, but won't clear, and will be out-finished.

:7: Scratch

:8: Pender claims her 26Aug16, puts 3 good works in to her, then.......oops, did something happen? We wait 12 days for another work, race very uninspiring a week later, then get 1 work 9 days ago. These are the ones I can't bet on, but know that if I'm missing something, can beat me. Her win 2 back was very professional, as was the runner-up effort before that. The activity schedule since Sep25 and the fact she had fronts on in her first start for Pender makes me step away, and even look to beat her. Very well may be the post time favorite.

:9: She will be forward. She has beat better. She has guts on the front end, and she has worked like a champ since the first of October. I look for her to be that last man standing at the 1/16th pole in a race where many will like to be forward, but only the most committed will get the honor. She looks ready to roll, and if right, this field has nothing that should scare her.

:10: I have no hesitancy betting Matt Chew when he has the right animal. This mare will be hard pressed to beat any field off a 7 month layoff.

:11: Hollendorfer brought her to Turf Paradise. He was trying anything to get something out of her. Best he could do was sell her to Paul Aguirre. Aguirre/Puglisi have smacked 'cappers upside the head in the past. If they do this time, I'll take my lumps.

:12: OK. Here's a nasty little speedster. She had to drop to the basement to get it done. She had to go to Los Al to get it done. She was swimming down the stretch like a drunken sailor in 6 foot swales to get it done. But she's got some wheels. Fortunately, all the speeds should be kept honest in here, and getting away at the 3/8ths pole, which would give this filly her best chance, is unlikely. There are going to be a lot of fillies and mares running backwards in the stretch before this race is over.

:13: And the more that are running backwards, the better for this one. She would like to be forward but doesn't have the speed to do it in here, but she will pick up some pieces. It's doubtful the race will fall apart enough for her to pick them all up however.

:14: This 5yo mare is a picture of what a drag horse ownership can be. She actually could have been a very useful race horse if she could have stayed on the track. She came back very nice after her year off, but she had to sit out for another 9 months, and came back not looking as quick as she once was. The jock worked her pretty hard to hold the position she had in her last. She's worked well, they took the fronts off for her last one, but I think it's all an effort to sell her. She didn't look good in her last race. Kind of sad for me, as I had her when the placed 8Jan16 at about 8/1 and she gave me quite a thrill.

The pick is :9:. I always like layoff horses with proven back class at this level, and I found one I can get on in here. Her works, running style, and proven ability are the things I look for in a layoff runner at this level.

[ReplayRandall]

9th @ Del Mar
The pick is :9:. I always like layoff horses with proven back class at this level, and I found one I can get on in here. Her works, running style, and proven ability are the things I look for in a layoff runner at this level.

Nice write-up, nice call:

:9: Herunbridledpower [8-1] 1st - 12.80 5.80 5.00

[ultracapper]

Thank you Randall. I always appreciate your input.

[ultracapper]

Damn right, I follow SoCal racing and this was a nice thread UC had going for a while. How about part deux?

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128004&highlight=socal

Why not. But I'm not going to post nearly as many races as I did in that original thread. Even though I ended up with about a $2 ROI for the first quarter of the year with that thread, I was finding myself more concerned with posting than finishing my handicapping, and it ended up being kind of sloppy for me. When I end up placing a bet, I usually have combed through the race pretty thoroughly, and that takes time. As an example today, that write up took about 45 minutes. The only reason I was able to do it was because I was done with the race an hour before post.

[ultracapper]

$10.40 $4.20
$6.00
OUT
$13.20 $6.60
OUT
$12.80 $5.80


10/1/16 to present

$2W

Bet $12
Return $36.40
$ROI $3.03


$2WP

Bet $24
Return $59
$ROI $2.46

[ultracapper]

$10.40....$4.20
$00.00....$6.00
...............OUT
$13.20....$6.60
...............OUT
$12.80....$5.80


10/1/16 to present

$4W

Bet.............$24
Return....$72.80
$ROI........$3.03


$2WP

Bet............$24
Return.......$59
$ROI.......$2.46



New post simply for housekeeping purposes.

[ultracapper]

I wish I had time to write up the 6th at Del Mar. 2MTP

:9: Belle Sierra

[ultracapper]

Because it would have been really insightful.

$10.40....$4.20
$00.00....$6.00
...............OUT
$13.20....$6.60
...............OUT
$12.80....$5.80
...............OUT


10/1/16 to present

$4W

Bet.............$28
Return....$72.80
$ROI........$2.60


$2WP

Bet............$28
Return.......$59
$ROI.......$2.11

[mikesal57]

Keep it up...

[ultracapper]

May as well use this thread to discuss issues we have dealt with on this board in the past.

There was a thread some time ago that discussed what really is the best scenario for a late running sprinter. Traditional thinking is the hotter up front, the better for the late runners as the heat up front will send the early runners wilting to the finish line and allow the late runners to sweep on by. Another viewpoint was a more moderate pace, allowing the late runners to stay closer to the early pace and ultimately grind down the front runners in the stretch.

I like the latter scenario better whenever possible as I feel it's always dangerous, regardless of the intensity of the pace, for a runner to get too far back early. I prefer, even for my late runners, to face a more moderate pace, allowing them to stay closer to the leaders and outrun them to the finish in the stretch.

We have a race at Del Mar today, Thursday Dec. 1, 2016, that will test the moderate pace, late runner scenario as if a script were written to discuss this issue.

5th @ Del Mar

:1: May get the lead by default. With no committed engine, yet plenty of forward runners, Pedroza should hit the gas from the rail with this one. However, she's never proven she has the speed to put pressure on a field, and therefore should have company throughout. Turning for home, she's never proven that "pop" that is so important when attempting to wire a field, yet she does run on to the finish.

:2: --SCRATCH--. She wasn't particularly important to this exercise as she was going to be one of the 2nd flight, or late runners, and she has shown she would prefer a mid race meltdown to allow her to gain position before the top of the stretch. She would have had to fight her way into position in this field, and I believe she would have come up wanting in the far turn.

:3: Off 8 months, and she was being groomed earlier in her career to run 2 turns on the turf. However, her maiden win did come off a 6 month layoff going 6 1/2f. A race in which she was left alone after a half mile in a very moderate, if not slow, early pace. That won't be the scenario here. The pace will be moderate, but fairer than she won at. The pace will also be attended, if not crowded, which by the way, is the one of the two aspects of this race that really makes it favorable to the late runners in here.

:4: Another that was able to gain a very favorable position in a moderately run early pace, and was allowed to slip away. The absolute last thing a late runner wants to see in a race like this, a moderately run pace that is well attended, is one of those early runners allowed to slip away. Neither this one, or any of the others in this race, have proven they can run and hide at the 3/16 pole from an attended pace. Just about every runner in this race broke maiden from a lightly attended pace run in a moderate, if not slow, manner. This race is not going to be run in 46.2 with only 2 runners in front at the 1/4 pole. The 1/4 pole should be very crowded, which is favorable for a late runner that wants to sweep by the field. That's much easier than picking off one runner at a time, trying to reel them all in before hitting the wire.

:5: 1Oct16-3SA 46 for the half, 58.3 for 5f, and this one builds a 3 1/2 length lead and runs away. Not happening here. This race could very well be run with those splits, and if so, will be pretty crowded at the 1/8th pole. This one's last race looks sneaky good at this very level, but the only horse that ran in that race that would even be competitive in this field was the very impressive winner. That field was awful for a StAl-N2L and this filly was able to take advantage of that and get a nice placing to a very nice looking winner. TRAP.

:6: The lethal Puype/Elliott team has a filly you want here. She fires in the lane everytime she's not running against Songbird types, and she will be comfortable running right behind the crowded, moderate, pace. None of them in front of her is quick enough turning for home to shake her, and I look for her to shake free at the 1/16th, and win this by open lengths to a crowded finish line for the minor prizes.

:7: She's been involved in both the fast-early, fall apart-late, and the moderate paced, grind them down late, and as a late runner, she was able to break maiden in the more traditional first scenario. She hasn't proven she has a sweep by them kind of move, and it looks to me like she'll be one of the crowd late at the line for the minor placings. She definitely could be on a winning exacta ticket, but so could about 4 others in here.

:8: Here is a grinder that I think the connections should start considering more ground for, and she is in the longest race of her life today. Good move. She has some early speed, and has shown a sneaky ability to fire. She may be the biggest danger to the pick, and definitely should show up on the board somewhere. She could be the one that puts the dagger in the heart of the early runners that don't assert themselves at the top of the stretch.

:6: is the bet.

After this race, I'll address another issue we've discussed on this board many times over the years, the issue of win vs. win/place.

[ultracapper]

Coming up to the gate at 2/1 isn't a real bet, but the purpose of this race is to look at the angle. 2/1 ain't exciting at all.

[dlivery]

Go Raiders Go

[ultracapper]

Wow!!! Real questionable strategy employed by Elliott in there.

2/1 got me out of a lot of trouble as I would have been screaming like a mad man down the back stretch. Why that filly was placed forward like that is a real head scratcher. Didn't see that coming.

[ultracapper]

Go Raiders Go

Is Carr playing this week?

[dlivery]

Looks good to go
All too good

[ultracapper]

Los Al 4th race

#2 Solar Zone

2MTP 9/1

WHAT A MONSTER GIFT!!!!!!!

GIVE ME THE MONEY

[ultracapper]

This 8 day respite is well needed. Turn it off for a week.

HAPPY HOLIDAYS TO PA NATION.

Hope all is well for you and your loved ones.

We'll start over at the Great Race Place in a week.