Top Horse Analytics: 10/05/2016 BEL,GPW Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL, GPW, KEE, SA
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU, CD, DMR, GP, OP, SAR, TAM

[Augenj]

Gulfstream Park officials announced Oct. 4 that racing at Gulfstream Park West has been postponed Wednesday through Friday because of approaching Hurricane Matthew.

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.22c)

Race Cancellations (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)
Full Charts (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (THA) (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

10/05/16, BEL, Race 1, 12.55 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Apollo Eleven [3-1] Ortiz J L / Morley Thomas SE
098.2792 :8: There Goes Ben [2-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. JF
097.0774 :1: Scarselletta [50-1] Arrieta F / Scott Phillip W
096.4669 :5: A Trip to Lourdes [8-1] Franco M / Kimmel John C.
096.3824 4 Mr. Sam [5-1] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny TC
094.3495 2 Dancer's Edge [10-1] Velazquez J R / Zito Nicholas P.
093.2799 3 Foggy Mountain Cat [7/2] Lezcano J / Violette. Jr. Richard L
091.7773 6 Zio Elio(b+) [20-1] Luzzi M J / Schosberg Richard E.

10/05/16, BEL, Race 2, 1.28 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Doukas [9/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. SF
095.7252 :3: Saratoga Smoke [6-1] Castellano J / Bond H. James
095.5575 :4: Angel Choir [2-1] Ortiz J L / Duggan David P. JEWL
093.3425 :2: Rockin Alli(b+) [5-1] Arroyo A S / Handal Raymond T
092.7690 6 Forever for Always [15-1] Cancel E / Antonucci Jena M. C
092.2756 5 Night Madam [8-1] Luzzi M J / Contessa Gary C.
*Scratch* 7 Mama Joyce [4/5] Saez L / Sharp Joe

10/05/16, BEL, Race 3, 2.01 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Cursor [8/5] Castellano J / Hennig Mark A. SFEWC
096.8127 :3: Special Risk [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. T
091.4099 :2: Drip Brew(b+) [6-1] Carmouche K / Moquett Ron L
087.2761 :6: Courtmewithcarats [3-1] Ortiz J L / Lynch Brian A. J
086.8312 4 Pinchpenny [12-1] DeCarlo C P / Pugh Peter D.
079.5575 1 Quebec [15-1] Saez L / Zito Nicholas P.

10/05/16, BEL, Race 4, 2.34 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Lyrical Moment [2-1] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A. SW
098.1874 :2: Church Social(b+) [5/2] Ortiz J L / McGaughey III Claude R
097.9963 :1: Withhold [2-1] Lezcano J / Brown Chad C. L
097.7199 :3: Tapit Together [7/2] Rosario J / Matz Michael R. FC
097.5325 8 Chase Motto [5-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. JE
096.0841 9 Timido [12-1] Alvarado J / Clement Christophe
095.2542 4 Tizacity(b+) [10-1] Cancel E / Nicks Ralph E.
092.2656 6 Candy Genovesa [20-1] Franco M / Albertrani Thomas
*Scratch* 7 Preppy [12-1] Saez L / Maker Michael J.
*Scratch* 5 Verve's Tale [6/5] Franco M / Tagg Barclay

10/05/16, BEL, Race 5, 3.07 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 CLAIMING. Purse $53,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Stormin Monarcho [6/5] Arroyo A S / Jacobson David L
097.7990 :5: Don Dulce [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Levine Bruce N. FEWC
096.5858 :2: Winter Games [3-1] Castellano J / Rodriguez Rudy R. JT
094.0173 :4: Praetereo [6-1] Franco M / Klesaris Steve
093.2314 3 A. P. Cino [15-1] Lezcano J / Sciacca Gary S
*Scratch* 1a Transparent [6/5] Ortiz J L / Jacobson David

10/05/16, BEL, Race 6, 3.40 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: Palladian Bridge [3-1] Saez L / Dilger Michael SFEL
098.5785 :11: Barbie Stones [7/2] Gryder A T / Levine Bruce N. C
097.6360 :6: Argyle Gal [5-1] Castellano J / Asmussen Steven M. JT
096.7630 :7: Splash of Sass [10-1] Cancel E / Davis Robbie G.
095.7719 2 Bust [6-1] Carmouche K / Mareina Michael
094.3138 3 U Do That [15-1] Torres J / Ubillo Rodrigo A.
093.4175 10 Satin Frost(b-) [8-1] Alvarado J / Schettino Dominick A. W
092.8863 1 Shineady [12-1] Fragoso P / Friedman Mitchell E.
089.4019 12 Pride Leader [20-1] Lezcano J / Hertler John O.
089.2513 4 Squeezed [20-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 9 Not Amused [20-1] Arrieta F / Feron Kathleen M.
*Scratch* 5 Congarees Key [30-1] Arroyo A S / Lalman Dennis S.

10/05/16, BEL, Race 7, 4.13 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Mambo At the Gym [6-1] Franco M / Maker Michael J. F
099.7299 :11: Special Ops [5-1] Saez L / Cox Brad H. T
099.6636 :2: Second Mate [8-1] Rosario J / Cibelli Jane EW
095.5803 :1a: Smokey Brown [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Toscano. Jr. John T. JC
094.3145 10 Frisky Magician [15-1] Alvarado J / Trombetta Michael J. L
092.2986 9 Steve's Image [20-1] Luzzi M J / Martin Carlos F. S
091.3637 7 Sly Tom [4-1] Carmouche K / Sharp Joe
090.0133 4 Beyond the Green [20-1] Davis D / Ryerson James T.
*Scratch* 8 Snake Oil Charlie [30-1] Davis J A / Maroun George C.
*Scratch* 5 Refer [3-1] Lezcano J / Servis Jason
*Scratch* 3 On Tap [6-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda
*Scratch* 1 Shadow Rider [12-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Toscano. Jr. John T.

10/05/16, BEL, Race 8, 4.46 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $80,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Gotachancetodance [5-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A. F
097.8924 :3: Achnaha (IRE) [5/2] Franco M / Weaver George EC
096.3113 :6: Kitzys Rocket [8-1] Ortiz J L / Tagg Barclay JS
095.5253 :1: Greywalls [20-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P. L
095.0074 9 Sky Painter [12-1] Rosario J / McLaughlin Kiaran P.
093.0292 5 Bishop's Pond [4-1] Lezcano J / Servis Jason T
092.2722 2 Evidently [6-1] Alvarado J / Lerman Roy S.
089.9757 8 Daring Duchess [10-1] Velazquez J R / Maker Michael J. W
088.5534 4 Stay the Night [10-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / McGaughey III Claude R

10/05/16, BEL, Race 9, 5.19 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.01 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Wantagh Queen [15-1] Franco M / Barker Edward R. F
099.4397 :12: Dream On [4-1] Rosario J / Martin Carlos F. W
098.9272 :1: Sauvignon [7/2] Ortiz J L / Brown Bruce R. JE
098.4048 :7: Orzo [6-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
097.0361 10 Imflatoutsweet [6-1] Castellano J / Clement Christophe T
095.3074 5 For Later [15-1] Cancel E / Ryerson James T. C
092.6358 3 I Love You Still [20-1] Arroyo A S / Bush Thomas M.
092.0942 8 It's Two Hot Benny [10-1] Saez L / Adsit Abigail C. L
090.9399 6 Laura's Patriot [30-1] Torres J / Toscano. Jr. John T. S
086.5034 9 Gray's Sunshine [50-1] Mendez K / Alvarez Luis C.
*Scratch* 2 I Hope You Dance [5-1] Velazquez J R / Rice Linda
*Scratch* 1a Time Squared [7/2] Ortiz J L / Brown Bruce R.
*Scratch* 14 Lady Chocolotta [15-1] Montanez R / Sciacca Gary
*Scratch* 13 Believe Indeed [5/2] Carmouche K / Ryan Derek S.
*Scratch* 11 Jemmabelle [12-1] Lezcano J / Rice Linda

[Augenj]

END OF PICKS

RESULTS FOLLOW

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.22c)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

10/05/16, BEL, Race 1, 12:55 ET
1 1/8M [Inner Turf] 1.45.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :7: Apollo Eleven [3-1] SE 4th
098.2792 :8: There Goes Ben [2-1 * ] JF 2nd - 2.70 2.30
097.0774 :1: Scarselletta [50-1] W
096.4669 :5: A Trip to Lourdes [8-1]
096.3824 4 Mr. Sam [5-1] TC 1st - 10.60 5.20 3.20
094.3495 2 Dancer's Edge [10-1] 3rd - 4.20
093.2799 3 Foggy Mountain Cat [7/2] L
091.7773 6 Zio Elio(b+) [20-1]

10/05/16, BEL, Race 2, 1:28 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :1: Doukas [9/5 * ] SF 1st - 4.90 2.80 2.50
095.7252 :3: Saratoga Smoke [6-1] 2nd - 4.00 3.60 $2 Ex 16.00
095.5575 :4: Angel Choir [2-1] JEWL
093.3425 :2: Rockin Alli(b+) [5-1] T 4th
092.7690 6 Forever for Always [15-1] C 3rd - 4.40
092.2756 5 Night Madam [8-1]
*Scratch* 7 Mama Joyce [4/5]

10/05/16, BEL, Race 3, 2:01 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :5: Cursor [8/5 * ] SFEWC 1st - 3.30 2.30 2.10
096.8127 :3: Special Risk [5/2] T 2nd - 3.00 2.70 $2 Ex 9.60
091.4099 :2: Drip Brew(b+) [6-1] L
087.2761 :6: Courtmewithcarats [3-1] J 4th
086.8312 4 Pinchpenny [12-1] 3rd - 6.90
079.5575 1 Quebec [15-1] eased in lane
$2 DD 10.40

10/05/16, BEL, Race 4, 2:34 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :1a: Lyrical Moment [2-1] SW 1st - 8.10 3.90 2.30
098.1874 :2: Church Social(b+) [5/2] 3rd - 2.40
097.9963 :1: Withhold [2-1] L 7th - 8.10 3.90 2.30
097.7199 :3: Tapit Together [7/2 * ] FC 2nd - 3.80 2.60
097.5325 8 Chase Motto [5-1] JE 4th
096.0841 9 Timido [12-1]
095.2542 4 Tizacity(b+) [10-1]
092.2656 6 Candy Genovesa [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Preppy [12-1]
*Scratch* 5 Verve's Tale [6/5]
$2 DD 14.80
$2 P3 30.00

10/05/16, BEL, Race 5, 3:07 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 CLAIMING. Purse $53,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :1: Stormin Monarcho [6/5] L 1st - 11.00 6.00 4.50
097.7990 :5: Don Dulce [5/2 * ] FEWC 4th
096.5858 :2: Winter Games [3-1] JT 3rd - 3.60
094.0173 :4: Praetereo [6-1] 2nd - 6.00 3.60
093.2314 3 A. P. Cino [15-1] S
*Scratch* 1a Transparent [6/5]
$2 DD 33.20
$2 P3 46.20
$2 P4 114.50

10/05/16, BEL, Race 6, 3:40 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :8: Palladian Bridge [3-1 * ] SFEL 1st - 7.90 4.80 3.10
098.5785 :11: Barbie Stones [7/2] C 3rd - 2.90
097.6360 :6: Argyle Gal [5-1] JT 4th
096.7630 :7: Splash of Sass [10-1]
095.7719 2 Bust [6-1] 2nd - 9.50 5.20
094.3138 3 U Do That [15-1]
093.4175 10 Satin Frost(b-) [8-1] W
092.8863 1 Shineady [12-1]
089.4019 12 Pride Leader [20-1]
089.2513 4 Squeezed [20-1]
*Scratch* 9 Not Amused [20-1]
*Scratch* 5 Congarees Key [30-1]
$2 DD 45.40
$2 P3 91.00

10/05/16, BEL, Race 7, 4:13 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :6: Mambo At the Gym [6-1] F 6th to 8th
099.7299 :11: Special Ops [5-1 * ] T 1st - 6.10 3.50 2.40
099.6636 :2: Second Mate [8-1] EW
095.5803 :1a: Smokey Brown [12-1] JC 3rd - 4.80
094.3145 10 Frisky Magician [15-1] L 4th
092.2986 9 Steve's Image [20-1] S
091.3637 7 Sly Tom [4-1] 2nd - 3.70 2.70
090.0133 4 Beyond the Green [20-1]
*Scratch* 8 Snake Oil Charlie [30-1]
*Scratch* 5 Refer [3-1]
*Scratch* 3 On Tap [6-1]
*Scratch* 1 Shadow Rider [12-1]

10/05/16, BEL, Race 8, 4:46 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $80,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :7: Gotachancetodance [5-1 * ] F 4th
097.8924 :3: Achnaha (IRE) [5/2] EC *SCR*
096.3113 :6: Kitzys Rocket [8-1] JS *SCR*
095.5253 :1: Greywalls [20-1] L
095.0074 9 Sky Painter [12-1] 2nd - 10.20 5.90
093.0292 5 Bishop's Pond [4-1] T
092.2722 2 Evidently [6-1] 3rd - 4.00
089.9757 8 Daring Duchess [10-1] W 1st - 13.80 7.50 4.50
088.5534 4 Stay the Night [10-1]

10/05/16, BEL, Race 9, 5:19 ET
7F [Turf] 1.19.01 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :4: Wantagh Queen [15-1] F 3rd - 5.20
099.4397 :12: Dream On [4-1] W 2nd - 6.90 5.00
098.9272 :1: Sauvignon [7/2 * ] JE
098.4048 :7: Orzo [6-1]
097.0361 10 Imflatoutsweet [6-1] T 4th
095.3074 5 For Later [15-1] C
092.6358 3 I Love You Still [20-1]
092.0942 8 It's Two Hot Benny [10-1] L 1st - 19.80 9.10 6.90
090.9399 6 Laura's Patriot [30-1] S
086.5034 9 Gray's Sunshine [50-1]
*Scratch* 2 I Hope You Dance [5-1]
*Scratch* 1a Time Squared [7/2]
*Scratch* 14 Lady Chocolotta [15-1]
*Scratch* 13 Believe Indeed [5/2]
*Scratch* 11 Jemmabelle [12-1]

[Augenj]

END OF RESULTS