Hong Kong Oct. 4th Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for October 4th at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 79 degrees partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain wind: ENE 9mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET 5.15am PT Rail: “A” Course, track listed: Good

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20161005_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html
http://www.drf.com/hk (video link)

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 4 :7: Ace King (9-2) Won easily in a slow time against a weak field in his last, now has to manage the tight turn downtown.

Runners that are coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's).
Race 3 :10: Enreaching (18-1) Race *745, the 1st, 3rd and 5th place runners have come back and won their next race.

Horses off my watch list:
Race 2 :8: Victor Emperor (4-1) Race 50, Slow start, raced last pair on outer, over-raced 700m, peeled widest home turn & shaken up, strong closer centre track.
Race 4 :8: Robust Momentum (7-1) Race 43, Tardy break, raced fore of midfield on rail, driven into stretch & switched out, stayed on for closing 3rd.
Race 8 :12: Victory Marvel (7-2) Race 41, Prominent, travelled 2.5Ls behind the leader on the fence, finished off nicely for 2nd, just beaten by a short head.

Longshots:.
Race 1 :4: France Valour (12-1)
Race 3 :10: Enreaching (18-1)
Race 5 :8: Graceful Kingdom (11-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody & everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields of 12 in ALL 8 Turf races.
There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning.
I’m not going to be posting any live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning.

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 -1800M (9F) Turf.........5-6 W/ 8-11-10-7 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........2-3 W/ 4-8-12-11 …....7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........1-2 W/ 4-6-7-11...........8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........4-1 W/ 8-6-3-7…........….8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......2-1 W/ 4-3-8-5............9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......4-1 W/ 5-7-3-10…........9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......1-3 W/ 9-10-2-5.........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf...........1-9 W/ 12-3-2-4 ….....…10:50 AM EST

Good Luck today if you’re playing!

[NorCalGreg]

Good morning Woody & everyone that’s interested in the best racing product on the planet!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields of 12 in ALL 8 Turf races.
There are at least 3 very competitive races this morning.
I’m not going to be posting any live selections for the races in Hong Kong this morning.

If I’m not mistaken TVG is offering live video for the all 8 races.
There’s also Live Video on:
http://www.drf.com/drf/live_video/hong_kong/392221

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

For those of who can appreciate the value of the live tote action it’s available here:
(Click on English)
http://bet.hkjc.com/default.aspx?url=/racing/pages/odds_wp.aspx?lang=ch&langRedirect=true

I took a look at the M/L’s and in combination with the early odds and have come up with some preliminary picks for each race. Later on the live tote action will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed. The latest tote action (by 5 mins to post) may reveal some things that will cause some Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores.
BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 -1800M (9F) Turf.........5-6 W/ 8-11-10-7 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........2-3 W/ 4-8-12-11 …....7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........1-2 W/ 4-6-7-11...........8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........4-1 W/ 8-6-3-7…........….8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......2-1 W/ 4-3-8-5............9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......4-1 W/ 5-7-3-10…........9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......1-3 W/ 9-10-2-5.........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf...........1-9 W/ 12-3-2-4 ….....…10:50 AM EST

Good Luck today if you’re playing!


Say Nitro...It's obvious you're the board expert on toteboard wagering. I was thinking about purchasing a method on ebay--it looks pretty good.

You can see it's an entire system on toteboard wagering for only $20 dollars--American! They've already sold 40. Pretty impressive, that guy carrying a big bag of money. Did you learn your methods with this system?

Thanks for your time...and have a wonderful value packed day!

your buddy-NCG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[kevb]

R1:

There is a serious lack of speed/confirmed front runner here. KK and Joe know what to do and how get it done in this kind of race :2: :11:. The :8: is second time blinkers. Big trouble last out when first blinkers. May show some early speed today with a clean start. Plus a couple of price horses that have a chance to race up front and hang on for a piece :4: :10: :12:

Q :2: :8: :11:/ :2: :4: :5: :8: :10: :11: :12:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 5 1800 Metres

Notes from last races:
:4: France Valour Slow 8 lengths from the gate, middle move.
:5: Kerkeni and :8: Loyal Craftsman both encountered serious trouble with Kerkeni being beaten by a better trip.

Overall a very weak Class 5 field.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 results:
:11: - :2: - :1: - :7: Winner paying here in USA $ 5.60

Winner got a perfect trip, should go up around 7 ratings which will put him around #8 next time he runs in Class 5, should be alright as long as Moreira stays on and goes long. Pace was a little fast with the final time around 2 lengths slow.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 3 1200 Metres

:10: Enreaching (20-1) is coming out of a race that has produced 3 winners already, and when was the last time you got Size and Moreira at 20-1? Playing with :4: :6: and the :1: :2: :3: :5: :11: for third only.

[kevb]

R3:

WP :1: Best closer, good post.

[kevb]

Hey Woodbine. I see that you make speed figures for the HK races. Do you have to manually input the raw times?

[woodbinepmi]

Yes. Due to them only racing 2 days a week I spend more time than usual working on them.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Say Nitro...It's obvious you're the board expert on toteboard wagering. I was thinking about purchasing a method on ebay--it looks pretty good.

You can see it's an entire system on toteboard wagering for only $20 dollars--American! They've already sold 40. Pretty impressive, that guy carrying a big bag of money. Did you learn your methods with this system?

Thanks for your time...and have a wonderful value packed day!

your buddy-NCG
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

you ain't right ncg :lol: :lol:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1200 Metres

:8: Robust Momentum (7-1) Even though his speed figures are a little slower than par, his trip notes on his last: Serious trouble then blocked beaten by a better trip, bad ride.

[kevb]

R4:

I like the closers :4: :8:

WP :4:

Q :4: :8: / :1::4::8::9::10:

[kevb]

R5:

Sometimes you look at a race from different angles hoping to discover a juicy price and you end up with 5/2

:4: J, Mo up, 4-1-1-1 at HV, 3-1-1-0 at the distance

WP :4:

[kevb]

Ouch.

[woodbinepmi]

Going to be a headache making numbers for today, the track has gotten slower as the races have gone along and now it's storming.

[Nitro]

So where were the winning (in Top 3)(Out of Top 3) choices?


BTW my Top 3 early picks have been producing some very nice Dutch Win returns.

R#1 -1800M (9F) Turf.........5-6 W/ 8-11-10-7 .......7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........2-3 W/ 4-8-12-11 …....7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........1-2 W/ 4-6-7-11...........8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1200M (6F) Turf.........4-1 W/ 8-6-3-7…........….8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......2-1 W/ 4-3-8-5............9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......4-1 W/ 5-7-3-10…........9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf......1-3 W/ 9-10-2-5.........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1200M (6F) Turf...........1-9 W/ 12-3-2-4 ….....…10:50 AM EST

We had some more great results this morning!
Dutching the early picks was very profitable too because we hit 5 out of the 8 races with a beauty in the 8th! :ThmbUp:
The actual $$ amounts to follow.

Hope you had a good day too!

[Nitro]

Update:

If someone decided to play Dutch Win bets using the Top 3 early picks these were the results:

R#1- 5-6 W/ 8-11-10-7.........Results: 11-2-1-7 (4th choice (2.8/1) Winner
Dutch – 5 ( 3.6/1 ) – 6 ( 10/1 ) – 8 ( 14/1 ) - ($52.00) – ($52.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.6 10.0 14.0 BET PRF
$9 $22 $30
$30 $13 $9 $52 $86 167%
$138 $138 $138

R#2- 2-3 W/ 4-8-12-11............Results: 10-2-3-7 (Out)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.7/1 ) – 3 ( 3.6/1 ) – 4 ( 13/1 ) - ($58.00) – ($110.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 3.6 13.0 BET PRF
$7 $9 $28
$28 $23 $7 $58 $46 79%
$104 $104 $104

R#3- 1-2 W/ 4-6-7-11....... Results: 4-5-6-10 (3rd choice Winner)
Dutch – 1 ( 5.5/1 ) –2 ( 5/1 ) – 4 ( 2.9/1 ) - $46.00 – ($64.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.9 5.0 5.9 BET PRF
$8 $12 $14
$28 $18 $16 $62 $46 76%
$108 $108 $108

R#4- 4-1 W/ 8-6-3-7........Results: 4-12-10-11 (Top choice Winner)
Dutch – 4 ( 4.9/1 ) – 1 ( 7.2/1 ) – 8 ( 7.5/1 ) - $118.00 – $54.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.9 7.2 7.5 BET PRF
$12 $16 $17
$34 $24 $24 $82 $118 144%
$200 $200 $200

R#5- 2-1 W/ 4-3-8-5........Results:2-9-3-1 (Top choice Winner)
Dutch – 2 ( 2.6/1 ) – 1 ( 18/1 ) – 4 ( 4/1 ) - $64.00 – $118.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 4.0 18.0 BET PRF
$7 $10 $38
$38 $27 $7 $73 $64 89%
$137 $137 $137

R#6- 4-1 W/ 5-7-3-10.........Results: 4-10-7-12 (Top choice Winner)
Dutch – 4 ( 5.2/1 ) – 1 ( 19/1 ) – 5 ( 5/1 ) - $149.00 – $267.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
5.0 5.2 19.0 BET PRF
$12 $12 $40
$40 $39 $12 $91 $149 165%
$240 $240 $240

R#7- 1-3 W/ 9-10-2-5.......... Results: 2-10-7-4 (5th choice 41/1 Winner)
Dutch – 1 ( 4.9/1 ) – 3 ( 2.7/1 ) – 9 ( 9.7/1 ) - ($65.00) – $202.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 3.4 14.0 BET PRF
$8 $9 $30
$30 $27 $8 $65 $55 84%
$120 $120 $120

R#8- 1-9 W/ 12-3-2-4...........Results: 1-2-12-11 (Top choice Winner)
Dutch –1[B] ( 12/1 ) – 9 ( 4.2/1 ) – 12 ( 2.6/1 ) - $84.00 – [B]$286.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.6 4.2 12.0 BET PRF
$7 $10 $26
$52 $36 $14 $102 $84 83%
$186 $186 $186
This was all accomplished using just the preliminary picks and Dutching 3 Top entries in every race on the card. No matter how many races are played this positive result can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 5 out of 8 races (63%) produced a hypothetical profit of $286 after betting $585 or a 49% profit margin.

Posting 6 selections per race (in fields of 12 entries) when played and observed properly can absolutely produce a positive ROI with a reasonable hit frequency and a combination of entries with decent odds.
.