Trotters vs Pacers

[Ray2000]

A player recently asked me for suggestions on handicapping trotters vs pacers.
The only thoughts I had were:

1. Early speed (but not pullers who fade) is even more important for trotters.
2. Trainers who specialize in trotters are good to consider.

Anyone else have any ideas, tips etc.

Maybe Pandy has a chapter on this in his writings.

[pandy]

I'm sure I did but I don't have a good system to find old columns. I agree about the trainers who specialize in trotters. Performance ratings, such as speed ratings, hold up just as well in trot races than in pacing events, but naturally you have to be careful about betting heavy favorites if they show any breaks, or in two year old trotting races.

[traynor]

A player recently asked me for suggestions on handicapping trotters vs pacers.
The only thoughts I had were:

1. Early speed (but not pullers who fade) is even more important for trotters.
2. Trainers who specialize in trotters are good to consider.

Anyone else have any ideas, tips etc.

Maybe Pandy has a chapter on this in his writings.

The differences are substantial, and (to the best of my knowledge) there is no (meaningful) way to handicap one gait as if it were the other, with a special emphasis on some particular aspect of the PPs.

I build distinct models for each gait (which is a real pain). YMMV, but in the modeling approach I use, there is no way to equate pace races with trot races (modifying certain factors as more or less important) in anything resembling a useful strategy. The advantage of using discrete models is quite apparent in both win percentage and ROI.

[Ray2000]

I forgot one :)

Another difference (for older racehorses) is pacers have more trouble winning 3 in a row than trotters do.
Trotting holds current form longer so don't be wary of trying for that 4 or 5 win streak.

[EdZone]

A horse which is termed a good beginner is either a pacer which shows a lot of speed at the start of a mobile event, or a trotter or pacer which steps away cleanly from a standing start. Similarly, a poor beginner is a pacer which doesn't have a lot of early speed or a trotter or pacer which doesn't settle into its gait straight away.

[CoachBird]

So how can you determine by Pps which horses settle into their gates quicker? Thanks.

[Ray2000]

You might look for a pattern like this in the pp's, like on the 4 horse in Race 6 at Yonkers tomorrow shown below

This horse shows break marks (x) before and after the gate.

Actually you really need to be at the track and eye-balling the warmup. Something I can't do anymore.

It does take an experienced horseman. A horse can switch from the trot to the pace and back during a race.
I saw Delvin Miller file an objection to this happening once at The Meadows.

[HWIG]

Back when I started handicapping Harness, 1963. there was a big difference between the two gaits, I stayed away betting trotter because of the breaks.

Since the advent of the trotting hobbles, I find there is almost no difference handicapping the two gaits.

You should always stay away from horses that break in two of their last four starts

[traynor]

I should probably have stated it differently. I get better results regarding pacers and trotter separately, rather than combining the models. Certain factors are more predictive in one than the other.

[caper]

I find you can pick an outside post for trotters easier. Usually because you can depend on one maybe 2 on the inside breaking.

[DSB]

A good article that touches on a number of suggestions:

http://www.freeholdraceway.com/pages/handicapping#HINTS%20FOR%20HANDICAPPING%20TROTTERS

[EasyGoer89]

You might look for a pattern like this in the pp's, like on the 4 horse in Race 6 at Yonkers tomorrow shown below

This horse shows break marks (x) before and after the gate.

Actually you really need to be at the track and eye-balling the warmup. Something I can't do anymore.

It does take an experienced horseman. A horse can switch from the trot to the pace and back during a race.
I saw Delvin Miller file an objection to this happening once at The Meadows.

Tracks like Canada and Hoosier will refund a horse like this, so if you see a 3/5 trotter rank warming up with a tendency to break before the start, those tracks give gamblers free rolls on those types of horses.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Driver change means more on trotters.

Trotters are more likely to break from the 1-post.

First time trotting hobbles is one of the biggest angles in harness racing.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

You should always stay away from horses that break in two of their last four starts

Pay attention to WHY a horse breaks. The chart does not always tell the story.
I also started in 1963.