Trip Handicapping - Watch List

[pandy]

I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...

Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?

Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?

I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.

[EMD4ME]

I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...

Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?

Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?

I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.

No.

Of course, all variables are looked at.

YES.

[cnollfan]

I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...

Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?

Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?

I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.

I handicap the race. Even if I don't like the spot for the horse on my watch list, I will usually put a token bet on him as a sanity saver unless the price is short. But the main point of the list is to find a horse with darkened form who is in a good spot.

Some of the horses on my watch list are bet-againsts. I won't automatically bet against them but will make a point of handicapping the race if the bet-against horse is short.

I like having a watch list very much.

[pandy]

I wonder if a lot of people have a watch list.

It's odd, but for some reason, one of the "trips" that looks great to me never seems to win for me. That is, a maiden who in its first or second start makes a huge middle move then flattens out late. Logic says that this horse should run big next time but I have not done well with these the past few years.

[Robert Fischer]

when i first started the watch list stuff, i had multiple full accounts of every horse who ran against the grain or had some kind of significant trouble.

After a while I kept a watch list strictly for my bread and butter plays.

you still have to handicap, you just have extra information that may not be accounted for by the public.

E.g. 'Dancing Lion' who just ran 9/27 at The Mountain. He figured to run a race that would contend for the win. I had him in one of my wagers, and he was fractious in the gate to such an extent that I cancelled that wager. (The chart doesn't mention the fractious-gate comment.) He broke and engaged into a speed duel that had a fast pace for that class, and the race collapsed, w/ DL finishing 5th by 15. To a lesser extent Ruhl Paul (not sure if Mark P. selected Ruhl Paul based on value), also ran better than his running line.

Unless Dancing Lion unexpectedly placed up in class next out, he's pretty much an auto-use, in some form.

[Cice]

Agree with END4ME!

[classhandicapper]

I go back and forth between keeping a list and not keeping one. The upside of keeping it is that you won't miss any horses, especially if they happen to ship out of town. You'll get an email notification. The downside is that you have to actually maintain a list of horses, delete them when they become irrelevant etc.. I only bet back some of the horses that make my list. So sometimes I wonder if the added time could be better spent somewhere else as long as I have trip notes in my PPs.

[rsetup]

I wonder if a lot of people have a watch list.

It's odd, but for some reason, one of the "trips" that looks great to me never seems to win for me. That is, a maiden who in its first or second start makes a huge middle move then flattens out late. Logic says that this horse should run big next time but I have not done well with these the past few years.Can you provide a few examples? Interested in seeing what these race charts look like.

[pandy]

Can you provide a few examples? Interested in seeing what these race charts look like.


I don't have any of this type of trip right now. I'll try to post one the next time I see one.

[steve1904]

no

no

i use it to keep track of horse i think will be useful in the future. I just use all the information on them as another tool when handicapping. The more exposure the more informed.

[no breathalyzer]

I have about 100 horses in my stable mail atm... but i don't automatically bet them when they are entered tho.. some trainers are clueless or are playing games... either way they have to fit to bet them.. I hardy never delete a horse if has conditions left.. some of the best paying horses are the ones that re find their form that i confirmed watching replays in a nl2/nl3 race.

[rsetup]

If you bet NYRA, a watch list would be a fulltime job. On the one hand, NYRA trainers aren't in a hurry to run their horses back; on the other, they do like to enter their horses, alot of times in spots that make no sense, and scratch them. Only conclusion I can draw is some kind of unofficial entry quota requirement.

[mikesal57]

I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...

Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?

Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?

I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.


Yes I bet if horse was at long odds last race...most likely he will be a decent odds this race..

I do look at PP's but I believe trainer will get horse back into a race as soon as he sees a good opportunity and doesn't want horse to go off form

Mike

[ultracapper]

What EMD4ME said.

[appistappis]

i got one of these tues at id......country dreamin in r5

[Robert Fischer]

i got one of these tues at id......country dreamin in r5
scratched
The 10 has a lot of potential, but we'll see if his footwork issue in debut was exhaustion or fundamental problem

5,7,11 are also on my radar with the underlay 10

[Robert Fischer]

looked like 10-7

prefer 7-10

[teddy]

I am doing great with these wide path horses tthat end up withing 4 lengths of the winner. I had one pay $50 and one that looked over matched at parx paid $16 yesterday. I stopped trying to handicap them. They look bad on paper and it means nothing cause of the wide trip is what im seeing. I think watching as many races as possible and just save the obvious ones that got screwed. Trying to adjust for pace and all that would drive me nuts.

[pandy]

I am doing great with these wide path horses tthat end up withing 4 lengths of the winner. I had one pay $50 and one that looked over matched at parx paid $16 yesterday. I stopped trying to handicap them. They look bad on paper and it means nothing cause of the wide trip is what im seeing. I think watching as many races as possible and just save the obvious ones that got screwed. Trying to adjust for pace and all that would drive me nuts.


I like the wide trips, too. There are actually only two types of trips that seem to work for me, good speed try against the bias, and wide trips. Sometimes horses that close against a strong speed bias as well. For some reason, horses that get into trouble, slow start, checked, steadied, etc., they rarely seem to win when I bet them.

[traynor]

I like the wide trips, too. There are actually only two types of trips that seem to work for me, good speed try against the bias, and wide trips. Sometimes horses that close against a strong speed bias as well. For some reason, horses that get into trouble, slow start, checked, steadied, etc., they rarely seem to win when I bet them.

I had the same problem until I started correlating the trouble notations with individual jockeys. Some seem to get in a lot more trouble that others, and looking only at the trouble notations of the horse (ignoring the tendencies of some jockeys to get in more difficulties than others) can be misleading.

[traynor]

I am doing great with these wide path horses tthat end up withing 4 lengths of the winner. I had one pay $50 and one that looked over matched at parx paid $16 yesterday. I stopped trying to handicap them. They look bad on paper and it means nothing cause of the wide trip is what im seeing. I think watching as many races as possible and just save the obvious ones that got screwed. Trying to adjust for pace and all that would drive me nuts.

Wide trips are often used by trainers (especially at minor tracks) to race a horse into condition, without leaving obvious indicators that are easy to locate in the PPs.

[classhandicapper]

I think there are two keys to wide trips.

1. How hard was the horse used when it was wide.

2. How were the races developing on that day.

People tend to think in terms of bad bad rails and good rails. There are also days when horses that make wide moves don't seem to be particularly disadvantaged. It's kind of like like the outside paths are just a tad faster than the inside paths so the ground loss is offset.

If you are playing horses that were loafing wide against a slow pace on a day when being wide wasn't a big disadvantage, their PPs are not going to be as misleading as if they were being used hard while wide on a track where saving ground was a big advantage.

[rsetup]

All other things being equal, for turf, I could care less what the pace was. I'm more concerned with how the race shaped up.

As for wide trips: they can be tricky. A horse drafting wide on either turn or the backstretch doesn't concern me. Doing it without cover does.

A horse taking its time around the stretch turn and not being asked until they enter, while wide, is also of no concern. After all, it's ensured of a clear stretch run.

A horse that's asked on the turn, and thus prematurely, whether wide or otherwise, would be of note.

As for trainers using wide trips to camouflage workouts: this might be plausible if I had confidence that they were able to get their horses to run anywhere but wide.

[appistappis]

scratched
The 10 has a lot of potential, but we'll see if his footwork issue in debut was exhaustion or fundamental problem

5,7,11 are also on my radar with the underlay 10

interesting....he breezed a nice 4f the very next day

[ultracapper]

interesting....he breezed a nice 4f the very next day

Makes for an interesting development.

[ultracapper]

I wonder if a lot of people have a watch list.

It's odd, but for some reason, one of the "trips" that looks great to me never seems to win for me. That is, a maiden who in its first or second start makes a huge middle move then flattens out late. Logic says that this horse should run big next time but I have not done well with these the past few years.

95% of handicappers have this same trouble. It is their demise.

[Robert Fischer]

when i first started the watch list stuff, i had multiple full accounts of every horse who ran against the grain or had some kind of significant trouble.

After a while I kept a watch list strictly for my bread and butter plays.

you still have to handicap, you just have extra information that may not be accounted for by the public.

E.g. 'Dancing Lion' who just ran 9/27 at The Mountain. He figured to run a race that would contend for the win. I had him in one of my wagers, and he was fractious in the gate to such an extent that I cancelled that wager. (The chart doesn't mention the fractious-gate comment.) He broke and engaged into a speed duel that had a fast pace for that class, and the race collapsed, w/ DL finishing 5th by 15. To a lesser extent Ruhl Paul (not sure if Mark P. selected Ruhl Paul based on value), also ran better than his running line.

Unless Dancing Lion unexpectedly placed up in class next out, he's pretty much an auto-use, in some form.

Ruhl Paul back tonight , but up in class

:5: 20/1 race 7 MNR

[Robert Fischer]

ruhl paul 35/1 attended the pace for a half with a wipeout even-money winner.

big difference between a soft NW1 6MX last time and a 'salty' NW3 1YR this time.

I blew $2 on him keyed exactly 4th in a .50super ( 2 / 6, 8 / 6, 7, 8 / 5)
no dice
look for him back at an appropriate class level with a muddied up form

[pandy]

I wonder if a lot of people have a watch list.

It's odd, but for some reason, one of the "trips" that looks great to me never seems to win for me. That is, a maiden who in its first or second start makes a huge middle move then flattens out late. Logic says that this horse should run big next time but I have not done well with these the past few years.

David Aragona picked one of these horses today. I used to bet types of trips these but had a bad streak where they just underperformed.

[pandy]

Andy Serling picked Ecliptical Jack on top as well. He's certainly a logical pick, with normal second time out improvement. I picked 7-Outstanding Gio in the 5th, 7-2-8-6, put Ecliptical Jack 4th.

[mikesal57]

I'd prefer trainer handicapping over trip handicapping because most people see and the comments show what you saw...

With this horse , Pandy , I'd stay away unless price is hi...too many questions..
Like....will he be a chronic slow starter , will the 1st lasix help, also none of the 3 in company line came back to win a race...

just my opinion

Mike

[pandy]

I'd prefer trainer handicapping over trip handicapping because most people see and the comments show what you saw...

With this horse , Pandy , I'd stay away unless price is hi...too many questions..
Like....will he be a chronic slow starter , will the 1st lasix help, also none of the 3 in company line came back to win a race...

just my opinion

Mike

I'm not a fan of first time lasix as a handicapping angle, unless there's a known history of bleeding.

[Robert Fischer]

David Aragona picked one of these horses today. I used to bet types of trips these but had a bad streak where they just underperformed.
-------------------------------------------------------
1. There was enough there to be worth noting. It shows that a handicapper is at least lucid, when he's able to pick up on these things.

On paper it's HUGE.
So that makes up 1 'model'.

First let's stick with that model, and check whether that model is really strong for this individual example.

We go back to that race and we notice a few things = First, we notice an irrelevant humorous insight - Ecliptical Jack probably hits the board, if Manny plays the cards that he was dealt out of the gate and chills with the 5 and the 8 until it's time to pick up the (jacks) pieces.- All this really says is that the 'rush up' itself cost him more than the slow break. It quantifies the 'rush-up' to some extent if we extrapolate that EJ is in the class of the 8,5.

Second, we are presented with the problem of Outstanding Gio. Fortunately for us, Outstanding Gio ran his race back 9/21.

Third, we are presented with the problem that Ecliptical Jack never changed leads. Maybe he couldn't turn the corner with traffic to his inside? Maybe the rush-up fatigued him enough to be a contributing factor. Maybe he can't change leads.- I'd have to give the horse a mulligan, but watch his footwork today entering.

Model 1 = robust :ThmbUp:
----------------------------------------

---------------------
1a. 1b. 1c. 1d.
So we have 1 model that says that we should have at least a little value on Ecliptical Jack.

Related or separate models that flow in the same direction = 1.(previously stated)Outstanding Gio ran his race back. 2.Ecliptical Jack worked well again on 9/26. 3.Lasix(not a great specific Baker trainer angle on paper, but good to see) 4.Manny/Baker working well together lately.

Not exactly 'critical mass', but we have some minor models pointing in the right direction.
---------------------------
-------------------------------
SYSTEMIC OVERVIEW

Now we have to look at Today's race to see what models are going to be significant in Today's race
:2: port more- slight overlay, but not intimidating
:3: Kinder rudy FTS
:4: Helluva Choice potential to outclass these off of 'dud' race
:6: - ELIPTICAL JACK
:7: Outstanding Gio still needs more class relief
:8: Driven by Thunder Pletcher FTS

So our 6 needs :4: to run another dud, and needs :3::8: to be duds.

At least there aren't any certainties that negate our 6 from being a winning contender. :ThmbUp:

Unfortunately, I do not have strong models regarding :3::4::8:. (No workout reports, no inside info).
All I can do w/ 348 is watch the tote action for significant unexpected odds behavior.
---------------------------
-------------------------------
FINAL ASSESSMENT

FINALLY! - We need a decent price on the :6:. If every wise guy gravitates to the 6 and he's less than say '5-1', that really begins to negate the value we hoped for from MODEL1.


On the surface Eliptical Jack is a good 'add'. If I'm picking horses on TV for ROI, he's as good as any to use on top in this race. He's interesting in the huskier multis.

There are some scenarios (namely where the 348 don't fire winning efforts) where you want to use the 6Eliptical as a key in some tickets and you try to fit the 2portmore on those tickets as an exotics add.

[mikesal57]

Nice write up RF

[Robert Fischer]

Nice write up RF
thanks Mike. It rambles on, when i try to type it all out, but that is a big part of the process i use in a trip like this.


Best i came up with before seeing the odds =
$0.10 SF (PWHL) 6 / 3, 4, 8 / 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 8 $1.80

$0.10 SF (PWHL) 6 / 2 / 3, 4, 7, 8 / 3, 4, 7, 8 $1.20

for the scenario where the 3,4,8 don't fire winning races, i put the 6 on top, and tried to put the 2 and 7 in positions they have a chance to finish, where there could be some added value (not 4th).

[rsetup]

I see the 'trip' on ecliptical jack but I'm not convinced it was the noteworthy one in that race.

I thought two others' trips stood out more:

Four were chasing the 2. Only one, outstanding gio came close to running evenly the last call. And he showed continued fight next start. If I'm correct and he's a fighter, he needs to be on the lead and not chasing. Or, at least, stalking behind the chaser.

Helluva Choice also ran better than EJ. He was wider/widest and made the first move to collapse the race for the chasers.

[Robert Fischer]

I see the 'trip' on ecliptical jack but I'm not convinced it was the noteworthy one in that race.

I thought two others' trips stood out more:

Four were chasing the 2. Only one, outstanding gio came close to running evenly the last call. And he showed continued fight next start. If I'm correct and he's a fighter, he needs to be on the lead and not chasing. Or, at least, stalking behind the chaser.

Helluva Choice also ran better than EJ. He was wider/widest and made the first move to collapse the race for the chasers.

Tough race.
Ecliptical Jack once again failed to change leads, and if we incorporate some hindsight and your (rsetup) analysis, an argument can be made that he simply ran his debut back today.

Race was begging for a FTS, but the winner 1 was tough to have.

The place horse 8 was a bit cold on the board, and basically picked up pieces.
He'll likely be over-bet next time. I don't know that he's a toss, but he's not a horse that I want to lean on at a short price.

The 7 Outstanding Gio ran a good effort, but evaporated in the stretch. The 2 Port More ran a decent race for class but flattened badly switching to the wrong lead late. I thought the Rudy FTS Kinder was fundamentally decent and could drop/improve.

EJ turned out to be a 'Trap', fun race

[pandy]

The reason why I highlighted Ecliptical Jack was because I use to bet horses off similar running lines in NY until I realized how infrequently they won, often at overbet odds. This was another instance, and he went off at 5-2, which was absurd. It shows that the "wise guys" aren't always that wise.

[rsetup]

The reason why I highlighted Ecliptical Jack was because I use to bet horses off similar running lines in NY until I realized how infrequently they won, often at overbet odds. This was another instance, and he went off at 5-2, which was absurd. It shows that the "wise guys" aren't always that wise.

:ThmbDown:

[Robert Fischer]

I have a Watch List horse today in the first race.

Notes: Newman - "Inherited lead. Hung."

[rsetup]

I have a Watch List horse today in the first race.

Notes: Newman - "Inherited lead. Hung."

You think Newman ran 'better' than Northern 1st out?

You think he beats You're to Blame today?

He's probably loose, which works to your advantage.

[Robert Fischer]

You think Newman ran 'better' than Northern 1st out?

You think he beats You're to Blame today?

He's probably loose, which works to your advantage.

No. I said he inherited the lead and hung. He got a great setup and did no running first out.
Got another great trip this race and my 6 wore him down.

[Robert Fischer]

people are talking as if newman had a hard middle move 1st out.

I disagreed. He's a fundamentally sound horse, but he's not a horse you'd want in a stretch duel.

[Robert Fischer]

Today , in the third race at Belmont

Notes: Sicilia Mike- "Mediocre horse, suck-up trip, wrong lead."

[Exotic1]

I see the 'trip' on ecliptical jack but I'm not convinced it was the noteworthy one in that race.

I thought two others' trips stood out more:

Four were chasing the 2. Only one, outstanding gio came close to running evenly the last call. And he showed continued fight next start. If I'm correct and he's a fighter, he needs to be on the lead and not chasing. Or, at least, stalking behind the chaser.

Helluva Choice also ran better than EJ. He was wider/widest and made the first move to collapse the race for the chasers.




[QUOTE=Robert Fischer]Tough race.
Ecliptical Jack once again failed to change leads, and if we incorporate some hindsight and your (rsetup) analysis, an argument can be made that he simply ran his debut back today.

Race was begging for a FTS, but the winner 1 was tough to have.

The place horse 8 was a bit cold on the board, and basically picked up pieces.
He'll likely be over-bet next time. I don't know that he's a toss, but he's not a horse that I want to lean on at a short price.

The 7 Outstanding Gio ran a good effort, but evaporated in the stretch. The 2 Port More ran a decent race for class but flattened badly switching to the wrong lead late. I thought the Rudy FTS Kinder was fundamentally decent and could drop/improve.

EJ turned out to be a 'Trap', fun race


Good write ups, rsetup and RF. :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

Today , in the third race at Belmont

Notes: Sicilia Mike- "Mediocre horse, suck-up trip, wrong lead."

Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.

BUT....

The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.

Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.

At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.

[EMD4ME]

Conquest Prankster was pressed by a jockeyless horse in his last race. The running line makes him look loose.

That's the hidden stuff, I love to find :lol: :lol:

Not saying I'm betting Conquest Prankster but since we're discussing today's 3rd Race, I figured I'd throw that out there :lol:

I also give the riderless FTS credit. Dumped the jock, carried no weight BUT ran so intelligently. Moved up to share, dueled in between, changed leads perfectly....At least gets points for being so intelligent. :D :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

How ironic..........

As you guys discussed a recent race, a Michelle Nevin FTS won it at a huge price.

Deja Vu time?

This is not a race where I'd like to go out on a limb BUT since it's on topic, if I had a gun to my head, my play is the 12 at a huge price. The 12 worked in co (beaten 1 length) to that recent bomb winner.

In the pick 5/pick 4, it is obviously a race to spread. Must at least use (besides the 12) the 2&4 as well besides the 1&5.

[Robert Fischer]

Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.

BUT....

The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.

Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.

At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.

-Interesting.
Going to have to re-watch. :ThmbUp:

-With you on CP(was it Lezcano? aboard) /riderless in that race that a much the best BigStuff, or whatever his name was bulled through late (notes: "CP - 'mediocre'.").
EDIT-kind of funny that Lezcano did such a great job at taking the initiative with Conquest Prankster, and then demonstrably froze the field by starring at the loose horse, then used the loose horse to the best of his advantage... Now that they have the pretty running line, Casse gets Johnny V aboard:D, and lezcano rides Sicilian Mike..

Deja vu, indeed

[green80]

Yes, I agree. He followed the winner's inside flow and rallied with the flow late. That field was not that great, at all.

BUT....

The one thing that makes me pause about hating Sicilia Mike is the horse changed leads 10 yards out, the 3 had gotten past him right after the wire but the horse galloped out AHEAD of everyone after his lead change.

Plus, this horse has a nice sprint engine and looked to need 1 in the paddock.

At 3/1 I hate this horse but is a must use in the picks as any horse with energy and a green first run (leads) can improve. I just hate to bet them at a short price.

Do you think this horse was really green or was he getting off a sore knee or ankle or some other problem making him prefer to lead with his good leg?

[EMD4ME]

Do you think this horse was really green or was he getting off a sore knee or ankle or some other problem making him prefer to lead with his good leg?

Could be either but as a handicapper, I know it creates doubt, which caused me to use 5 A's in race 3. The 124512.

Got the 2nd biggest of the 5.

[Robert Fischer]

Tough day today, for refined handicapping. Today went to the contrarians.

[EMD4ME]

That makes it a good day buddy!

[Robert Fischer]

I have a negative trip note for BEL r4
:1: Too Wild To Repent = "rushed up, strong effort, fell after wire, trampled"


This horse could win with his 'A' race and a good trip, but tough to take a horse like that. He'll have to beat me today.


Strange race4 w/ two horses who fell last start - Also :5: Zen Papa.
looked like he may have been a smart horse who actually 'dumped' the jock on an exhausting effort.

somewhat unique situation

[Robert Fischer]

Race 4 today (positive trip note)

Hotfoot - "bumped, in-tight w/ rail"


This wasn't really significant to me on the turf, because horses like Piazza Del Campo have already shown they can press him into submission. However, with the race coming off-the-turf, Hotfoot could get a much cleaner trip. He's already been dismissed by most handicappers.

[appistappis]

Makes for an interesting development.

try again today at indiana

[EMD4ME]

Tree Top Lover-Big Giraffe of a horse. Seems to mostly threaten and then those BIG loping doofy strides take over in the lane, meaning he simply goes up and down, never grabbing the ground and bursting forward in the lane.


Running tomorrow in race 1 at Belmont. 7/5 ML fave. I need to look at the rest of the field BUT I am already intrigued with this race as I would like to bet against this ML fav. Be back later, after I dissect this specific field.

[EMD4ME]

As of now, without finishing all work, it looks like the 6 is the solid single. Very passive ride in last, might've not liked slop as well.

Blinkers ON. controls race stalking the 1 (if 1 goes gung ho from the rail) or clears and wires.

BTW, take a look at the 1 (in replays). What a cute little midget....He takes 3 strides for every 1 of the 4 :lol: :lol: :lol: . That horse is shorter than a teddy bear...How cute....

After I work the whole race, I'll give a formal opinion.

[EasyGoer89]

As of now, without finishing all work, it looks like the 6 is the solid single. Very passive ride in last, might've not liked slop as well.

Blinkers ON. controls race stalking the 1 (if 1 goes gung ho from the rail) or clears and wires.

BTW, take a look at the 1 (in replays). What a cute little midget....He takes 3 strides for every 1 of the 4 :lol: :lol: :lol: . That horse is shorter than a teddy bear...How cute....

After I work the whole race, I'll give a formal opinion.

any thoughts on the 1 running a 70 beyer 2 back while all his other numbers are 50 ish and lower? seems like an out of place number, he's got nothing in his career that suggests he can run anything close to a 70.

[Robert Fischer]

The 2nd race looks like a good 'horseplayer's race'.

My picks are a lot different than the morning line rankings.

[EMD4ME]

any thoughts on the 1 running a 70 beyer 2 back while all his other numbers are 50 ish and lower? seems like an out of place number, he's got nothing in his career that suggests he can run anything close to a 70.

I think that was a product of the slop and the trip. Was able to break first, then as PPS 6 n 7 moved up to lead, this tiny little guy was able to relax in the pocket (rail was very good that day, despite the slop) and finished full of energy in suck up fashion.

I see this cute little guy sending inside or sitting pocket with the winner as his company.

If the 6 is choked out to death, then he has a shot as I see the 4 jumping up and down in the lane going nowhere but playing BUNNY HOP :lol:

[appistappis]

try again today at indiana

ran 3rd at 77-1 after a bad start again.....got a good pay day but 2nd would have been huge.

[EMD4ME]

Official Pick, the 6. Wire to wire or worst case, 1st over to wire.

I'm a pick 5 player, so, the 2 will be a weak B type (bred for dirt on dam's side, connections aren't stupid, so not a good sign that they dropped to a mdcler before trying dirt).

3 was is the "stayer" in the race. Was scratched from a Parx MDCL route on Sunday for this. Will mostly use him supers underneath BUT will use as a C in case the 6 doesn't fire AND the race somewhat collapses.

Leaning heavily on the 6 here. Hate the 4. Not a race I am in love with BUT it's a good example to use of visual capping. The 4 will be a career loser, unless some supertrainer teaches him to run forward, not up and down like a bunny rabbit.

[EMD4ME]

Didn't work the rest of the field yet BUT....

Race 4 today.

The 10. Crazy about jazz. Solid angles working here.

Clement had 2 horses in this runner's 1st start. His entrymate wired the field. HHHMMMMMMM......

Guess who broke 1st and was choked out to ultimate death to avoid "going".......

This horse. Was given an education, being stuffed down to the pocket, was rank early. No room till the 1/8 pole, by then, she lost her burst. Finished evenly to photo for 2nd with a key horse (71Beyer winner at PRX).

By Big Brown. Dam was 1/2 on Turf. She had just 1 other foal who was 1/2 on Turf, sprinting and won $53K.

Live contender in here.

[EMD4ME]

Other contenders have holes (most of them).

The 11 was a supposed lock in his last race, regressed off the claim. Can he bounce back with a nice stalking trip OFF another claim?

The 2 always finds a way to lose. Not in love.

The 3 is bred well on the dams side. Could use despite not having a hot FTS trainer.

The 4 is solid. Is a must use an A.

The 9, to me is a trap. Not in love at all.


The 1 is Clement's other but I don't think is the well meant one.


10 is the official pick if betting to win. In picks using the 41011 as A's. 1&3 as B's. 29 as C's. Boxing some exactas (weighed out) and betting the 10 to win.

[Robert Fischer]

agree with you /race1
I also think the 2 azarel is somewhat interesting as a single-race longshot add. Horse only has 1 run. Gallardo is used to 1 short run @PID. Alvarado does a great job in general of getting a balanced trip, but I'm hoping Gallardo can do a little bit better at obtaining a good position after the break, and then waiting/sucking-up. Irad really should attempt to wire the field with the giraffe. Most likely, the 1, or maybe your 6 will set the pace.

race4/ agree w/ 10. I actually think both chads are OK here - 4Lily may have taken a step forward last time even on the dirt. Visibly she looked good to me. Should have a lot of horse on the grass with a decent trip. 2conquesthanger-I respect that Dubb claimed the horse back w/ chad's blessing for 75. She's a money-burner who we should all be allergic to, but she's a legit contender, and you've got the decent pace figs combined with the connections business decisions. Guessing we see the 2 as the pressing speed entry, and the 4 as the closer.

race2/ I don't have the Nevin horse as highly regarded as the ml. For the most part the rest of the field is obvious. Only thing i have to add is that i have 6Sauvignon and/or 8Coramoss in the mix with the contenders.

[EMD4ME]

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

That's value to say the least.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Wish I had read this before making my pick 5 bet. Really struggled with a ticket because of the fourth. The Chad Brown just reeked of being a little better and winding up getting bombed on the tote and suddenly looking that much better, but I thought that on paper there were a handful that had enough of a shot that I didn't really know what to do. And your ten was one of the primary ones. Initially was going to use at least three and figure that beating Brown was a big score, but couldn't cut elsewhere properly and still have the ticket work as win if everything went wrong and the favorite won the first and the Brown did win the fourth and nothing good popper in the others. So eventually I decided that though he might be a bit of a heavy favorite at post time, he didn't seem like the type that would be that heavily represented in the pick 5 so just said screw it and singled him rather than eat into what profit there is from using him and then a few that I'm scared of. Now I know I screwed up and this ten will beat me and it will pay lovely. :bang: :D

[EMD4ME]

The 2nd race looks like a good 'horseplayer's race'.

My picks are a lot different than the morning line rankings.

I agree. I am spread here with extra money on the 11.

I have to say, I marked the 12 down for 2nd out. Never put him in my stable mail. Was extremely annoyed to see he won at the Mudd Lands last out.

He had a nice BURST at the 3/16 and was the only closer in that weak field. If there is a surprising pace battle here WITH FAR TURN FLOW (very unlikely at NYRA, I know) the 12 can POP at balloons over these losers.

At 30/1, he's worth a stab.

[Exotic1]

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

That's value to say the least.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[EasyGoer89]

$8 on a horse who should have been 1/2. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

That's value to say the least.

Couldn't agree more amazing that the 2nd most likely winner is 2/5 you rarely see that.

[EMD4ME]

Couldn't agree more amazing that the 2nd most likely winner is 2/5 you rarely see that.

I'd rather bet these types vs 15/1 shots who go off 30/1.

You can crush em, as they are the best in the race and keep the wheels spinning.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'd rather bet these types vs 15/1 shots who go off 30/1.

You can crush em, as they are the best in the race and keep the wheels spinning.

Throwing out winners for the 3rd?:)

[rsetup]

Rudy

[EMD4ME]

This is a NICE exacta and LET's GET A PRICE IN RACE 5 home.

Clement Clement 1-2.

Have all in pick 4 and pick 5 to close.

Y'all might think I'm nuts but I truly believe the 6 has a shot in race 6. Had to use the 245, so I figured what the hell, close with all, don't leave 2 out.

[EMD4ME]

Throwing out winners for the 3rd?:)

:lol: :lol: :lol:

Glad I didn't see this, would've touted the 8. Tough luck 2nd.

Used 2458 in picks. The 8 would've made the payouts a bit higher in my opinion and I had all picks TWO MORE TIMES to the 8....... :bang:

[EMD4ME]

This is a NICE exacta and LET's GET A PRICE IN RACE 5 home.

Clement Clement 1-2.

Have all in pick 4 and pick 5 to close.

Y'all might think I'm nuts but I truly believe the 6 has a shot in race 5. Had to use the 245, so I figured what the hell, close with all, don't leave 2 out.


EDIT: Meant to say race 5

[Lemon Drop Husker]

EDIT: Meant to say race 5

R6

I've lost money at that :2: before. :lol:.

:7: looked appetizing. No skin in the game, but they have a chance.

[SG4]

This is a NICE exacta and LET's GET A PRICE IN RACE 5 home.

Clement Clement 1-2.

Have all in pick 4 and pick 5 to close.

Y'all might think I'm nuts but I truly believe the 6 has a shot in race 6. Had to use the 245, so I figured what the hell, close with all, don't leave 2 out.

EMD - congrats on the pick 5, very nice analysis of the 1st & 3rd which is always nice to see well before the race goes. I stupidly talked myself out of playing the pick 5 today (we all know what would've happened if I bet), wish I had seen your thought process earlier on, might've gotten me intrigued to jump back in.

[EMD4ME]

EMD - congrats on the pick 5, very nice analysis of the 1st & 3rd which is always nice to see well before the race goes. I stupidly talked myself out of playing the pick 5 today (we all know what would've happened if I bet), wish I had seen your thought process earlier on, might've gotten me intrigued to jump back in.

Thanks pal. What I'm shooting myself about is playing a pick 6 with the 10 as an A and the 1 as a B/C type.

Got through 3 legs with "Mega A's".

I have 26 in race 7. I CRUSHED this 6 in her 1st out win. BIG FILLY. Won taking no prisoners. Should benefit from the 1M distance.

She's a bit slower on paper but I project improvement.

[EMD4ME]

And this is why that 1st leg hurt......had the 5 as a B :(

[ebcorde]

knocked me out.

I singled the 4 R1 and 1 in race 2. used 3-4 in Race 5.

GP all kinds of trash was winning except R5
My only hit was GP R5 and Bel R8 $2 Tri straight.


small profit beats losing. I may Play Penn Nat now

[EMD4ME]

In a skull busting last race at Belmont, I am keying the 4 as a closing FTS in supers (all slots).

[hopbet]

The 11 Horse (Salling Grace) POSITIVE jockey switch. Today is Patrick Husbands , last race was Kayla Pizzaro. This Horse (last race ) was certainly was NOT a ground saving trip. Kayla also lost her whip.

[Robert Fischer]

I have a negative trip note for BEL r4
:1: Too Wild To Repent = "rushed up, strong effort, fell after wire, trampled"


This horse could win with his 'A' race and a good trip, but tough to take a horse like that. He'll have to beat me today.


Strange race4 w/ two horses who fell last start - Also :5: Zen Papa.
looked like he may have been a smart horse who actually 'dumped' the jock on an exhausting effort.

somewhat unique situation


back again Tomorrow, after a successful test-run last time.
Looks like a softer spot. Cancel should be more aggressive early this time.

[Robert Fischer]

couple of 'reaches' for race 5 Aqueduct today

:8: Shaksperian Dream "wayyy back on 9/2 Saratoga r5 clm2500 - Closed last to 4th , behind a slow pace. Final furlong? A race best 11.18 seconds"
12/1 ml with a shaky outside post position draw...


:1: Morethanawarning "9/14 bel r4 10F OC25k closed well behind a slow pace vs Texting and Earring (2 horses who would be favored today). Unfortunately she sandwiches that mildly interesting effort between two races where she did have some pace to run into and didn't really do any running. Maybe she wants more distance? Maybe she's just slow??
last race =10/20 a77k 1st level alw vs much tougher, got another slow pace and never used any horse in a hopeless scenario."
"
Class relief today and draws the rail. 8/1 ml expected to rise.




Couple of long shots to pray with or sprinkle lightly into Tri's and Supers. :ThmbUp:

[NorCalGreg]

This was kinda crazy....was wondering what happened to Jack O Liam...so went to the charts. Here's what happened:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Robert Fischer]

This was kinda crazy....was wondering what happened to Jack O Liam...so went to the charts. Here's what happened:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Interesting

[Robert Fischer]

:6: LIBERTY HOLIDAY is kind of a 'wiseguy' include/long shot today.
Anthony Stabile tried him on top today in Talking Horses.

Looking at his Timeform chart , there's the < arrow where you can look backwards, and forwards through a horse and their rivals' timeformUS FIGs.

for whatever reason (think Liberty Holiday may have had a '90'), every rival had fast races before and after that race.

Thought it could be a minor 'positive' to add to the case for using the :6:

[Robert Fischer]

Paid $20 to win!.

It's possible that the specific race in question, from the past performances, just happened to be a race where the top 5 horses ran a regression.
Also may have been a race that simply went low on figs.
It's a great feature that TimeformUS offers.
You can scroll through the 'figs' for previous races, and races that have since run back, before, or after the race you are looking at. A click brings you to that race chart.

Fun to check previous figs, and you can get lost on a 'six degrees of Kevin Bacon' going from horse to horse



:6: LIBERTY HOLIDAY is kind of a 'wiseguy' include/long shot today.
Anthony Stabile tried him on top today in Talking Horses.

Looking at his Timeform chart , there's the < arrow where you can look backwards, and forwards through a horse and their rivals' timeformUS FIGs.

for whatever reason (think Liberty Holiday may have had a '90'), every rival had fast races before and after that race.

Thought it could be a minor 'positive' to add to the case for using the :6:

[NorCalGreg]

Paid $20 to win!.

It's possible that the specific race in question, from the past performances, just happened to be a race where the top 5 horses ran a regression.
Also may have been a race that simply went low on figs.
It's a great feature that TimeformUS offers.
You can scroll through the 'figs' for previous races, and races that have since run back, before, or after the race you are looking at. A click brings you to that race chart.

Fun to check previous figs, and you can get lost on a 'six degrees of Kevin Bacon' going from horse to horse

Nice work RF, solid pick. :)

[Robert Fischer]

Tough race.
Ecliptical Jack once again failed to change leads, and if we incorporate some hindsight and your (rsetup) analysis, an argument can be made that he simply ran his debut back today.

Race was begging for a FTS, but the winner 1 was tough to have.

The place horse 8 was a bit cold on the board, and basically picked up pieces.
He'll likely be over-bet next time. I don't know that he's a toss, but he's not a horse that I want to lean on at a short price.

The 7 Outstanding Gio ran a good effort, but evaporated in the stretch. The 2 Port More ran a decent race for class but flattened badly switching to the wrong lead late. I thought the Rudy FTS Kinder was fundamentally decent and could drop/improve.

EJ turned out to be a 'Trap', fun race

That 'place horse' was DRIVEN BY THUNDER.
I have to re-watch his replay.
However, based on my notes ("a bit cold on the board, and basically picked up pieces") , he could be a play-against in the first race today, where he ships to Philly and will likely be heavy chalk considering Pletcher/Ortiz & PrettyPPs.

[Robert Fischer]

parx cancelled

[Robert Fischer]

That 'place horse' was DRIVEN BY THUNDER.
I have to re-watch his replay.
However, based on my notes ("a bit cold on the board, and basically picked up pieces") , he could be a play-against in the first race today, where he ships to Philly and will likely be heavy chalk considering Pletcher/Ortiz & PrettyPPs.

Back Thursday Race 6

Morning Line is very tough. 5/1.
I was waiting to lean against this one. There are 2 FTS in the race at 5/1 and 7/2 ml.
also Lunaire and Steamroller will take some money.
Driven By Thunder will probably not take enough money to create value as a lean against.

[Robert Fischer]

Well, DRIVEN BY THUNDER opens up @ 9/5. (currently 8/5 and falling)

We just saw Ethan Hunt win @ 2.90 in race 4. He was a legitimate favorite, but he should not have been 2.90, and he should not have run like a Gulfstream Park Pletcher horse.


So you get Driven by Thunder here at the underlayed price that I've been waiting a few weeks for, but now it is very suspect.

You are supposed to bet w/ both hands against him.

1 Lunaire is just as bad as DBT, but a better price.
4,7 are decent first time starter value.
5 can control the race, but you have to hope Lasix clears up whatever made him stop last race.

2 is a big price who can round out a tri

I just have an ugly feeling about this race. I don't trust Driven By Thunder to run another flat race. In reality, I feel 4 and 5 have a puncher's chance, but Driven by Thunder will run this much improved race and win easily.

we'll see

[Robert Fischer]

^ that's how you get psyched out from erratic racing results.


Driven By Thunder ran flat exactly how he was supposed to run.

4 FTS wins the 1 got 2nd and the 2 rounded out the tri.

I had it, but I bet it very light, without any confidence.



You are supposed to bet w/ both hands against him.

1 Lunaire is just as bad as DBT, but a better price.
4,7 are decent first time starter value.
5 can control the race, but you have to hope Lasix clears up whatever made him stop last race.

2 is a big price who can round out a tri

[appistappis]

have another one of mine entered wed at gulfstream, admiral's win.....been off since april and same jockey that gave the horrible ride in april...i'll tread lightly

[appistappis]

have another one of mine entered wed at gulfstream, admiral's win.....been off since april and same jockey that gave the horrible ride in april...i'll tread lightly


$19.80 to win

[appistappis]

got one at mah valley monday...hidatsa park.....he is a 3 yr old in with older so I'll check the pp's before I splurge.

[appistappis]

another winner...$5.00......didnt meet my odds requirements though.

[appistappis]

SUNDAY santa anita r6 sheza chattykat

[appistappis]

sheza chattycat ran third ending my streak......lets start a new one with ol drunk daddy in r3 at sunland.

[appistappis]

ol drunk daddy wins easily at $5.00 tough race to make money in, super was thirty something

[appistappis]

gp race 7 friday.....avast matey ran a big z last time.

[appistappis]

avast matey $10.00 to place

[appistappis]

apr 2 at sunland r9 lahoma june

[appistappis]

Saturday at lone star race 9///covert special

[speculus]

I'm curious, this is directed at those of you who keep a list of horses to watch, such as on the drf.com website, where you can be notified if the horse is entered...

Do you automatically bet the horse next time out?

Or do you handicap the race and decide whether the horse is worth a bet in that field?

I'm wondering how many of you think that keeping a watch list is a good thing.

Posting this in the hope that some of you may find it useful, though this exercise was conducted in India where the racing is conducted only on the turf.

About five years ago, I had conducted a public experiment with a list of follow horses. The follow horses were picked up based on what pace patterns and striding patterns they did when running a race, so you can call it a form of Trip Handicapping.

To make the experiment credible, ALL rules were laid down BEFORE the season (Bangalore SUMMER season of 2012) began.

No doubt, the sample was too small to be treated as statistically significant. But the findings of this small experiment were interesting:

1. Betting ALL automatic choices, for WIN, was clearly a losing proposition.

2. Even bets "recommended" by the system, after "adding an extra layer of decision making" to automatic choices lost 85% of the capital (starting with 5% of bankroll as first bet).

3. However, starting with the same 5% of the bankroll, when ALL "automatic" choices were blindly bet, without exception, in the SHOW* pool, it resulted in 56 percent profit.

*Please note that what you call SHOW pool in the U.S. is called a PLACE pool in my country.

Below some links to the experiment and its findings:

The Concept (http://www.indiarace.com/mystablecontent.aspx?pagetype=mystable&date=5/30/2012)

FAQ's (http://www.indiarace.com/mystablecontent.aspx?pagetype=mystable&date=5/31/2012)

Insights (http://www.indiarace.com/mystablecontent.aspx?pagetype=Performance&date=8/13/2012)

[appistappis]

haven't posted one here for awhile but Thursday r5 at gp....wolf eyes