Top Horse Analytics: 09/28/2016 BEL Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL, CD, GP, SA
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU, DMR, GPW, KEE, OP, SAR, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.22c)

Race Cancellations (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)
Full Charts (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (THA) (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/28/16, BEL, Race 1, 1.30 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: Hamptons Holiday(b+) [2-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. FEWLC
098.1715 :1a: Can You Diggit(b+) [5/2] Arroyo A S / Jerkens James A. TS
087.6790 :7: Jewel Can Disco [10-1] Rosario J / Gullo Gary P.
087.3143 :5: Toga Tosconova [8-1] Ortiz J L / Gyarmati Leah J
080.5594 1 Shade Seeker [5/2] Franco M / Hushion Michael E.
080.2645 3 Big Ragu [12-1] Saez L / Sharp Joe
080.2490 6 Sicilia Mike [15-1] Lezcano J / Sacco Gregory D.
080.2335 2 Single Heist [20-1] Bisono J / Kazamias Peter
*Scratch* 4 Control Group [4-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C.

09/28/16, BEL, Race 2, 2.01 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Idiosyncratic [4/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. SEC
096.6838 :1: Mav [7/2] Saez L / Weaver George F
095.2825 :2: Veya [6-1] Ortiz J L / Englehart Jeremiah C. JTL
092.5054 :6: Tricky Citizen [12-1] Castellano J / Nevin Michelle
092.4375 7 Heavenly Sun [20-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Feron Kathleen M. W
084.2246 5 Coco Is Loco [15-1] Franco M / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 3 River of Dreams [8-1] Alvarado J / Gyarmati Leah

09/28/16, BEL, Race 3, 2.32 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Cashconsiderations [5/2] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. JWL
098.6341 :5: Talkn Til Midnight [6-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda TE
097.9495 :2: Jennifer's Legacy [5-1] Alvarado J / Ryerson James T. FC
097.5285 :1: Town Fair [3-1] Torres J / Ubillo Rodrigo A. S
096.6052 4 Amber Dancer [10-1] Carmouche K / Levine Bruce N.
095.3530 7 Brass Cat [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Jerkens James A.
095.1027 1a Preying Mantis [3-1] Saez L / Serpe Philip M.
094.8346 3 Bahnahno [30-1] Fragoso P / Quick Patrick J.

09/28/16, BEL, Race 4, 3.04 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Canarsie Kid [3-1] Carmouche K / Miceli Michael TSFL
097.2548 :11: Stormin Stephen [7/2] Castellano J / Adsit Abigail C. J
096.4709 :5: Virga [8/5] Franco M / Weaver George E
092.8941 :6: Cuckoo's Saloon [10-1] Alvarado J / Quartarolo Anthony T.
091.6210 10 Bold Illusion [30-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Metivier Richard W
091.5807 12 Bow Tie Affair [10-1] Rosario J / Reynolds Patrick L. C
089.7975 7 New York's Zip [20-1] Arroyo A S / O'Brien Leo
*Scratch* 9 Do Share [4-1] Rider TBA / Reynolds Patrick L.
*Scratch* 8 A Chip and a Chair [10-1] Torres J / Contessa Gary C.
*Scratch* 4 Mr Curiosity [5-1] Rider TBA / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 3 Toohottoevenspeak [6-1] Rider TBA / Jacobson David
*Scratch* 1 Vandalize [6/5] Saez L / Schettino Dominick A.

09/28/16, BEL, Race 5, 3.36 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $77,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Cloontia [7/2] Velazquez J R / Jerkens James A. SFL
099.8323 :6: Intensity [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C.
096.9175 :9: Forever in Love [8-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda JTWC
096.7277 :7: Mr. Magic [15-1] Castellano J / Pletcher Todd A. E
094.7931 1 Mighty Mo(b+) [5/2] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
092.4605 8 Cave Johnson [6-1] Franco M / Toner James J.
090.6121 1a Site Read [5/2] Lezcano J / Mott William I.
089.2507 3 Toughest 'Ombre(b-) [5-1] Rosario J / Albertrani Thomas
*Scratch* 5 All On Red [2-1] Ortiz J L / Nevin Michelle
*Scratch* 2 Sail Ahoy [8/5] Rosario J / McGaughey III Claude R

09/28/16, BEL, Race 6, 4.09 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 CLAIMING. Purse $47,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Sunset District [10-1] Lopez P / Ryan Derek S. JF
099.6998 :3: Dream Man [3-1] Alvarado J / Contessa Gary C. SW
096.7908 :6: Lure of the South [15-1] Franco M / Klesaris Steve C
096.7445 :9: Xaverian [2-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Jacobson David E
095.0564 2 Frogman Mel [6-1] Castellano J / Klesaris Steve
095.0118 5 Midnight Notes [12-1] Saez L / Toscano. Jr. John T.
092.4727 4 Little Jerry [5-1] Velazquez J R / Nevin Michelle TL
088.8705 1a Husband's Folly [20-1] Arroyo A S / DiPrima Gregory
086.4534 8 Chunnel [30-1] Cancel E / Divitto. Sr. Michael
*Scratch* 1 Mr Palmer [20-1] Rider TBA / Rodriguez Rudy R.

09/28/16, BEL, Race 7, 4.41 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: B Three [4-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda JTE
099.0780 :8: Ginned Up [7/2] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. S
096.8941 :7: E Warfare [12-1] Saez L / Ortiz Juan FWL
096.4385 :5: Even Bette [6-1] Rosario J / Cannizzo David A. C
095.8220 2 Roman Reign [20-1] Cancel E / Metivier Richard
095.1920 4 Love You Babe [10-1] Arroyo A S / Ferraro James W.
*Scratch* 6 Trappe Play [5-1] Lezcano J / McLaughlin Kiaran P.
*Scratch* 3 Cahirciveen [5/2] Franco M / Clement Christophe

09/28/16, BEL, Race 8, 5.13 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $65,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1a: Katniss the Victor(b+) [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. FC
098.1064 :8: Highway Star [7/2] Velazquez J R / Ubillo Rodrigo A. EW
097.7603 :1: Tahoe Tigress [5/2] Franco M / Rodriguez Rudy R.
097.5971 :5: Lutheran Miss [6-1] Ortiz J L / Servis Jason JTSL
096.7327 7 Conquest Superstep [8-1] Rosario J / Casse Mark E.
093.7920 6 Bella Joy [10-1] Alvarado J / Nicks Ralph E.
092.5214 9 Legally Bay [30-1] Torres J / Coffey Marialice
091.3467 3 Bi Light of Day [30-1] Cancel E / Hertler John O.
*Scratch* 4 Prairie Stone(b-) [15-1] Arroyo A S / Barrera. III Oscar S.
*Scratch* 2 Hot House Rose [3-1] Castellano J / Hills Timothy A.

09/28/16, BEL, Race 9, 5.45 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Yes Its Factual [10-1] Ortiz J L / Trombetta Michael J.
098.7992 :7: To the Moon Alice [6-1] Rosario J / Contessa Gary C. W
098.3408 :4: Tiz Paradise [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. C
098.1452 :8: Tailoredforsuccess (IRE) [2-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. J
096.2014 1 Conquest Lucknlove [5/2] Lezcano J / Jacobson David SFEL
093.9373 6 Liddyup [20-1] Carmouche K / Kelly Patrick J.
092.5978 5 French Dressing [20-1] Davis J A / Gyarmati Leah
*Scratch* 2 Short Squeeze(b+) [12-1] Saez L / Lynch Brian A.

[Augenj]

END OF PICKS

RESULTS FOLLOW

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.22c)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/28/16, BEL, Race 1, 1:30 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :8: Hamptons Holiday(b+) [2-1 * ] FEWLC 1st - 3.50 2.70 2.10
098.1715 :1a: Can You Diggit(b+) [5/2] TS
087.6790 :7: Jewel Can Disco [10-1] 4th
087.3143 :5: Toga Tosconova [8-1] J
080.5594 1 Shade Seeker [5/2]
080.2645 3 Big Ragu [12-1] 3rd - 5.50
080.2490 6 Sicilia Mike [15-1] 2nd - 14.80 8.10
080.2335 2 Single Heist [20-1]
*Scratch* 4 Control Group [4-1]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 2, 2:01 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 CLAIMING. Purse $40,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :4: Idiosyncratic [4/5 * ] SEC 2nd - 2.10 2.10 steadied start, lost by nose
096.6838 :1: Mav [7/2] F 1st - 8.70 2.80 2.10
095.2825 :2: Veya [6-1] JTL 4th
092.5054 :6: Tricky Citizen [12-1] 3rd - 3.80
092.4375 7 Heavenly Sun [20-1] W
084.2246 5 Coco Is Loco [15-1]
*Scratch* 3 River of Dreams [8-1]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 3, 2:32 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :6: Cashconsiderations [5/2] JWL 1st - 12.80 5.80 3.60
098.6341 :5: Talkn Til Midnight [6-1] TE
097.9495 :2: Jennifer's Legacy [5-1] FC
097.5285 :1: Town Fair [3-1 * ] S 2nd - 3.60 2.30
096.6052 4 Amber Dancer [10-1] 3rd - 3.40
095.3530 7 Brass Cat [7/2]
095.1027 1a Preying Mantis [3-1] 4th - 3.60 2.30
094.8346 3 Bahnahno [30-1]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 4, 3:04 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :2: Canarsie Kid [3-1] TSFL 1st - 12.20 6.40 3.30
097.2548 :11: Stormin Stephen [7/2] J
096.4709 :5: Virga [8/5 * ] E 3rd - 2.20
092.8941 :6: Cuckoo's Saloon [10-1] 2nd - 12.80 4.90
091.6210 10 Bold Illusion [30-1] W
091.5807 12 Bow Tie Affair [10-1] C 4th
089.7975 7 New York's Zip [20-1]
*Scratch* 9 Do Share [4-1]
*Scratch* 8 A Chip and a Chair [10-1]
*Scratch* 4 Mr Curiosity [5-1]
*Scratch* 3 Toohottoevenspeak [6-1]
*Scratch* 1 Vandalize [6/5]
$2 DD 77.00

09/28/16, BEL, Race 5, 3:36 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $77,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :4: Cloontia [7/2] SFL 3rd to 6th
099.8323 :6: Intensity [3-1] 4th
096.9175 :9: Forever in Love [8-1] JTWC 3rd - 3.40
096.7277 :7: Mr. Magic [15-1] E
094.7931 1 Mighty Mo(b+) [5/2 * ]
092.4605 8 Cave Johnson [6-1] 2nd - 8.90 5.70
090.6121 1a Site Read [5/2 * ]
089.2507 3 Toughest 'Ombre(b-) [5-1] 1st - 17.20 9.30 5.80
*Scratch* 5 All On Red [2-1]
*Scratch* 2 Sail Ahoy [8/5]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 6, 4:09 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 CLAIMING. Purse $47,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :7: Sunset District [10-1] JF rough start, stymied 1/16, 6th
099.6998 :3: Dream Man [3-1] SW 1st - 8.90 3.60 2.50
096.7908 :6: Lure of the South [15-1] C
096.7445 :9: Xaverian [2-1 * ] E 4th
095.0564 2 Frogman Mel [6-1] 3rd - 4.50
095.0118 5 Midnight Notes [12-1] 2nd - 5.40 3.70
092.4727 4 Little Jerry [5-1] TL
088.8705 1a Husband's Folly [20-1]
086.4534 8 Chunnel [30-1]
*Scratch* 1 Mr Palmer [20-1]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 7, 4:41 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :1: B Three [4-1 * ] JTE 3rd - 2.50
099.0780 :8: Ginned Up [7/2] S 2nd - 3.40 2.40
096.8941 :7: E Warfare [12-1] FWL 1st - 12.60 5.20 3.10
096.4385 :5: Even Bette [6-1] C
095.8220 2 Roman Reign [20-1] 4th
095.1920 4 Love You Babe [10-1]
*Scratch* 6 Trappe Play [5-1]
*Scratch* 3 Cahirciveen [5/2]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 8, 5:13 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $65,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :1a: Katniss the Victor(b+) [5/2] FC 3rd - 2.40 2.60
098.1064 :8: Highway Star [7/2 * ] EW 1st - 4.30 2.50 2.40
097.7603 :1: Tahoe Tigress [5/2] 2nd - 2.40 2.50
097.5971 :5: Lutheran Miss [6-1] JTSL
096.7327 7 Conquest Superstep [8-1] 4th
093.7920 6 Bella Joy [10-1]
092.5214 9 Legally Bay [30-1]
091.3467 3 Bi Light of Day [30-1]
*Scratch* 4 Prairie Stone(b-) [15-1]
*Scratch* 2 Hot House Rose [3-1]

09/28/16, BEL, Race 9, 5:45 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $52,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :3: Yes Its Factual [10-1] 3rd - 4.80
098.7992 :7: To the Moon Alice [6-1] W
098.3408 :4: Tiz Paradise [7/2] C
098.1452 :8: Tailoredforsuccess (IRE) [2-1] J 1st - 7.80 3.90 2.60
096.2014 1 Conquest Lucknlove [5/2 * ] SFEL 2nd - 3.00 2.20
093.9373 6 Liddyup [20-1]
092.5978 5 French Dressing [20-1] 4th
*Scratch* 2 Short Squeeze(b+) [12-1]

[Augenj]

END OF RESULTS

[ReplayRandall]

$2 DD 77.00.....Nice job...It's about time you hit something hefty like this...:ThmbUp:

[Augenj]

$2 DD 77.00.....Nice job...It's about time you hit something hefty like this...:ThmbUp:

Thanks, Randall. Too bad that it doesn't happen more often. I have a dream... :D