Arlington Eliminator

[charleslanger]

Selection page for the contest's first day-- Saturday, is up. You'll need to re-register each time for each round of this & all CDSN contests, by choosing a stable name-- i'd do this now, even though you won't want to make your pick yet. (Only allowed one entry per person.)

[charleslanger]

Your comments are appreciated..

What worked well at this track for the first month of racing at this meet(especially during the past contest: the first 2-3 weeks. BTW i hadn't looked at this track in years before this meet):

Late energy ruled the roost at all distances / surfaces / track conditions-- successful Hawthorne front runners were not the type of horse you wanted to bet-- even those coming from the Keeneland meet, their superior class did not help them.
For a frontrunner to have a chance it needed at least 3 of the following: to be much superior, project to have a clear early lead, be facing a considerably slower pace than accustomed to overcoming in the past, have demonstrated rating/closing ability before and/or use that style in the upcoming race.
Horses with superior late advantage to the rest of the field were the play, even in the following situations, where they'd be throwouts(at least for the win slot-- hopefully you'll be thinking Win, even though this'll be a Show contest) at most tracks:
Stone closers in sprints stretching out to a route & ditto for those routers now shortening up.

All of above held true on dirt, grass, off-tracks. And as you would think, the advantage increased as the sprint or route distance increased. Couple of peculiarities i observed on off-tracks: Often you'd see the field bunched wide, avoiding the inside-- and maybe running slow early in stereotypical turf style: well-- the most inside horse leading/pressing had a great chance to win; and also in this track condition, the advantaged closers one handicapped for often were able to be put on or near the lead and win-- nice to have a competent jockey aboard<G>.

I haven't followed racing here day-to-day for about a month, but--
from looking at meet stats & recent charts-- it now seems the track is playing much more fairly : early runners can now do well at all distances: particularly dirt sprints: here they may even enjoy a slight edge. It's happened before that as this track meet progresses further into the summer, it may tilt even more towards early speed, no?

Please feel free to add to / correct anything: maybe nothing of the above is really true due to small sample sizes, effects of pain medications,,, LOL

And may the horse be with you all.
.

[charleslanger]

Starting late here, have not had computer & web access for a few days-- yesterday all i was able to do was look at the
equibase entries & noticed the first race claimer nw2 lifetime had 7 entries only. I figured these are all seconditis-type
nags, and whomever was made the morning-line favorite was due to superior figs-- selection sealed in stone!

BTW-- noticed they've added the morning line next to each contest selection; this has strategy implications because most contestants
take the morning line favorite. Because of this and the fact that scratched selections are assigned to the actual post-time favorite, which most often is the first or second morning line favorite, we hope that the selection we arrive at is not a morning line fave, though we will not go so far as to look for an alternate choice if that fave looks solid-- the object here is to survive-- not to pick longer prices, as in other types of contests.


One of my favorite contest tracks because of small fields & because it's not speed crazy-- if your horse has a little trouble
at the start, it's not an instant elimination. In spite of the plethora of small fields, the first contest only took 2½ weeks.
Just the first day for this one, 1,046 of 1562 contestants were eliminated! Normally the dilemma here is which choice in which race to
make the contest selectee-- nice dilemma to have actually<g>!

I'm getting a late start today-- first thing's to check the weather:
http://wwwa.accuweather.com/adcbin/public/index.asp?partner=accuweather i like this one because you can look detailed hourly
both backwards(to check if moisture already fell on the track) and forwards. The Weather Underground link given by Handicapping.com
is fairly useless: even if there's only a small percentage of a chance of rain-- it states Rain, even if it's raining nearby but
not at the track-- it states Rain.
Next, the late scratches-- right from the contest site: http://equibase.churchilldowns.com/ap-changes.asp They're posted two or three times,
so check back, & refresh your browser right after writing them down or clicking them off in your software. BTW they're posted here a lot earlier
than at Equibase: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqpLateScratches.cfm For other tracks it's the opposite: they're up first at Equibase,
then later on at the track's website.

No time to handicap the card, but notice the 3rd race's down to 5 entries after a couple of scratches: even if i just stuck my ponytail pin through the sheet, i'd still have a 60% chance of advancing; and worse still: even if i could find no standout, as long as there were 1 or 2 no-chance nags entered, the job would still be accomplished.

Fortunately we have a standout here-- unfortunately it's the 2-1 morning line fave: besides being a magnet for most, it will likely, as the post-time favorite, also wind up as official selection also for those who picked one of the scratched horses.
BTW Had there been one more scratch-- turning this into a four-horse field & the probable favorite was a solid mortal lock, i'd forcefully pick something else & hope a mishap would knock most out of the contest. All one's choice'd have to do is beat one-- but now with just one more entry it becomes having to beat half the field.....

7yo gelding Orphan Cartwright , not only has higher recent figures than the others, but repeatedly & consistenly so. It has also been repeately claimed this year, and shows a versatile running style: it can set the pace or hold back and press or stalk it; and in today's race there isn't a whole lot of speed signed up.
Nobody shows any figure on the main Chicago circuit or a higher-class one, that would get it close. The closest are maybe the inconsistent 5yo gelding #3, only because it's been racing at a higher level, and the 9yo #6, that was just defeated 1½ lengths by the choice-- maybe today it has a chance because the race shape will be different: today it may get to sit just off the choice's flank and force it to set the pace this time-- whereas in the last race the choice stalked it as it dueled another horse.
.

[charleslanger]

Some races, the way they develop just makes you wonder(Though we knew the #6 had a chance to win)....

Our hero winds up letting the 6 outside him set an unpressured pace, & simultaneously gives up early ground advantage to the closers-- actually running fourth early....

Good news is the fairly close second favorite ran out of the money: hopefully it took a large chunk of contestants with him....

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/18/2004&STYLE=EQB

[charleslanger]

No chance to handicap today: took the fave in the 1st: #3 Lucky-- winner 4 of 6 this year, & 2 of last 2.........

[charleslanger]

Funny-- how with plenty of small fields, @1200 of 1562 are out after just 3 days........ over 75% already.... http://games.cdsn.net/G=15/game/leaders.phtml

charts: http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/21/2004&STYLE=EQB

[charleslanger]

Kind of thinking about:

1st race: #1 Reprized Angel

9th race: #6 Willful

Of course, after scratches, weather check, & track maintenance report-- others could come into play instead.

[Light]

Charles

Nice pick on Lucky M yesterday,even if favorite. Yesterday I had Douglas on the Turf(won). Today I am taking Douglas again on the Turf in the 8th:Navy Brat(M.L. 3-1). Love Danzig horses on turf and he steadied in last.Moves from the 10 hole to the 5 hole.My only reservation is no work since last race(22 days ago). 369 people left.

[charleslanger]

Hey! Good luck with Navy Brat. You had Skip Poker in the 7th yesterday? How's your blood pressure now? .:) http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/21/2004&STYLE=EQB

Today, I went with #6 Willful in the 9th, even though it's such a large field.. he just towers over this field so much in so many ways... best case scenario he airs, worst case-- he's still better than almost all, & maybe one or two would jump up to give him a battle...

I find taking above-mentioned Amoss charge(whom he gets to meet a weaker field while stepping it up in price 1st off the claim), a much safer bet than taking one of the cheap claimers in say, the first or third race-- even though the latter one went down to 5 entries after late scratches.

[charleslanger]

The #1 Reprized Angel aired in the 1st race while ridden out. One of the considerations i had in a worst-case scenario was no one would go out with the 2-- so now you'd be looking at 2nd place at best: meaning that now only one other horse could beat it to stay in the contest. Turns out there was nothing to worry about: this confirmed closer(almost plodder if you will) impressively chased from second place, then drew off. Its class level drop probably factored in.
Actually a smart move on trainer Rivelli's part: claim off 2nd-place finish for 15K, debut at 10k level with winner's purse of 7.2K-- probably collected a bet at those better than 2-1 odds.... he was probably looking at a worst-case scenario of a quick profit if horse claimed right back-- & if he hadn't been, it would've been the gravy train from there on out.
Of note too: all those works in the 5 weeks after the claim... interesting.......

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/22/2004&STYLE=EQB

I expect Willful in the 9th to perform in equal or better demolishing fashion;)
.

[Light]

Charles:

Nice picking on both your selections. 3 or 4 wins in a row for you. Even if its chalk,not easy.Looks like I'm out with Navy Brat.I guess my reservation about the lack of works was correct that something was not 100%.At least I got that right.Oh well. I still got Calder and Dmr. Hope you're betting your picks. You're hot.

[charleslanger]

Light: my condolences :( : and your horse's best race was over yielding ground like today's... :confused: two other maybe telling signs were trainer record:

0 wins, 0 places from 11 starts at this meet-- and
7% wins from 45 turf starts 2004-- however, the roi is +2.10, perhaps meaning he's the kiss of death when bet heavy??
Overall allowance stats place him at 9%.....

Speaking of yielding, the rains arrived a smidge earlier than forecasted....i'd thought the eight race wouldn't see rain...and the ninth little to none..... http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/22/2004&STYLE=EQB

Quite a few favorites bit the dust today, including the 5-horse 3rd race--maybe only 100 or less will still be eligible......

Good luck with Calder entry...... & DelMar....& Saratoga(you will enter, wont you? :D pool's on its way to 20K...)

[Light]

Saratoga? No.Don't like those contests that you pay for. If I have to pay,and am looking for a grand prize type of reward,I'd rather play a Pk6.

[charleslanger]

$10 gets you in, same format as the Eliminator, except they pay down to 10th place....

[charleslanger]

Glancing at the following:

3rd: 7 Favorite Moment first choice, 4 Courthouse a possibility-- but would want to see 3 Good Hornet scratch out.....

5th: 5 T.G.'s Gambler

8th: 3 Bound For Fame

10th: 6 Vecchia Cita & 7 Finding Speed

Tomorrow's actual Track condition & maintenace report, final weather forecast, & scratches-- will prod which direction we take.....

Seize the moment, grab the gusto!

[charleslanger]

Kinda thought more would've been eliminated yesterday... still-- almost 85% eliminated after 4 days...

No track maintenance report onsite for today.... Track condition at scratch time listed as Dirt-Fast / Turf -Good... Weather forecast- clear & sunny.....

Totally blundered the contest selection today:

(5th race choice scratched) Instead of taking the much safer 3rd race choice Favorite Moment, took the riskier 8th race choice Bound For Fame... it will need to keep improving as far as beng able to face a faster pace & more early pressure-- it's young & lightly raced, so likely it will do so-- but it'd have been an extra safety net if it didn't have to...and as well to have seen an extra route race under its belt: not only to corroborate the route fig, but to better define its running style-- hopefully it's a closer/rater who just overwhelmed her field last out, as opposed to a front-runner who cleared at the pace call.... Douglas aboard does give hope...

Good Luck.

[charleslanger]

This hurts: I had actually marked the third race as the first choice-- but that race's sheet got suffled overnight--right after i hit the submit button i noticed it.... I even had correctly the 1st & 4th races that didn't survive my elimination process...

They need to allow changes to be made right up until the deadline...

[Light]

Horseracing and computers can really be one of the more frustrating experiences there are. I've learned to expect it . So now I don't do as many Tony Soprano imitations.

[charleslanger]

Ay! What're you gonna do! Whack the contest administrator? Dat'd be no good for the family, cuz! It'd bring too much heat on this board...

5th Race-- #1 Toasted

Turf Rail: Lane 5

[charleslanger]

2ND Race: #4 Ensign Slew

After 6 days--Remaining Players: 159 out of 1562

good luck.....

[charleslanger]

Remaining Players: 111 out of 1562 after 7 days.....

[charleslanger]

Normal track conditions-- Turf rail 6' out......

5th #1 Platinum Belle

[charleslanger]

So far--- either:

race 1-- #3 Heatcus

race 3-- #2 White Scarf

are our safe pre-selections sporting much-superior late pace figs....
pending scratches.........

Good huntin'.............

[charleslanger]

Let's make it 3rd race 2-White Scarf.......

After 8 days: Remaining Players: 64 out of 1562

[charleslanger]

Forgot to post: 2nd race #3 Small Allen... http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbChartResultsDisplay.cfm?TRK=AP&CY=USA&DATE=07/30/2004&STYLE=EQB

Down to 26 players.......

[charleslanger]

8th race #3 Colonial Colony

[charleslanger]

Turf rail on lane 3 today......

Selection stays......

[charleslanger]

Remaining Players: 8 out of 1562

Discounting earlier mistake that was partly brought about by confusion re the different post time for that day, this is as far as we'd have gotten... eliminated in a 5-horse field to boot......

All three Eliminators are winding down, hopefully they'll re-start soon-- this one in particular better not drag on unduly, so that enough meet time would remain to start another one....

[charleslanger]

The standings are after only 11 days, i might add, for this contest.......

[charleslanger]

Nobody eliminated on 12th day.........