G2 Pennsylvania Derby

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Not sure, but I have to believe this has to be the first time in the history of this race that the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers in the Kentucky Derby are looking to show up and contend in this race.

Kudos to Parx. I hope it happens and us horseplayers get a good show, and more importantly for us, a good wagering race.

This 9F race will be contended amid a number of "knowns" and not so much "knowns".

Lets get to it:

:1: Awesome Slew: Won on this very track last out from the 14 hole in a 14 horse race and now comes out of the 1 hole. Took the lead last out and never gave it back. Highly doubt the connections will change that kind of tactic. Question is, will he be fast enough to get the lead in here?

:2: Exaggerator: The dirt vs wet track issues are now real. Should be a dry track, should be a reasonable pace. If Ex isn't a wet track specialist, then this should be his fit. Especially in the 2 hole not having to give up much if any ground.

:3: Summer Revolution: Simply brilliant in his first two starts, and then a brain dead ride in the Kings Bishop. Now Smith is on board, and I don't see that as an upgrade. Distance is a huge question with all 3 career races at 7F. Summer Bird bloodlines could give some pedigree to get more than a mile, but I have to look elsewhere.

:4: Connect: A horse that was supposedly peaking going into the Travers was amid the wash that was Arrogate. Still have Brown and the switch to Castellano could be a spark. 12/1 ML is very appetizing for a horse that has won at 9 panels before.

:5: Cupid: Speed is his weapon. And he has railroaded his last 2 fields by getting to the lead and waving goodbye amongst G2 competition. But lets face it. Those were OC $62K fields and this is a legit G2, if not near G1 field. He wires this field, I take up and notice. Can't see it happening.

:6: Wild About Deb: Lightly raced Eskenderaya colt is on the improve. This is a very interesting long shot. Distance shouldn't be an issue, and a hot pace could see this one rolling late and in serious contention.

:7: Gun Runner: A tough runner that seems to give his very best each time out. Ran a very good 3rd against the romp that was Arrogate in the Travers. Hard to say, but could he "bounce" off a 3rd place effort?

:8: My Man Sam: A deep closer that will need a complete meltdown to be competitive. Since his Blue Grass, he simply hasn't shown much as being a realistic Graded Stakes horse.

:9: Nyquist: Kentucky Derby champ returns to the races after his Pimlico and Haskell near disasters. This is obviously a very talented colt, that likely needed some time off to mature. Most interesting horse in the field. Can't wait to see him run again.

:10: Sunny Ridge: A much forgotten 3YO that has hit the board in a number of decent races. Lightly raced, and could be sitting on a big one as this colt matures. Scary.

:11: Discreet Lover: Deep closer (actually probably just slow) that is up against it.

:12: Hit It Once More: Hard Spun colt that is getting better nearly every time out. Will need to be on the lead or near it to have a chance. Post position is a huge problem, but connections have little option other than to send. Tough to see getting the better of these from this post.

Summary: I see a ton of speed in here, especially the 14 hole and 1 hole needing to press and compact the field creating a scramble for other speed such as Summer, Connect, Cupid, and Nyquist.

I'm strongly looking at :6: Wild About Deb and :10: Sunny Ridge to be a big part of this one.

[rastajenk]

Pretty strong.

Is this on TV anywhere?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Pretty strong.

Is this on TV anywhere?

Maybe on the East Coast, but I have to get it through either TVG or my Twinspires account.

[dilanesp]

Mad props to Parx. This is a great horse race.

[pele polo]

Pick Insider's anaylsis
http://pickinsider.com/wp/pennsylvania-derby-handicapping-breakdown/

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Pick Insider's anaylsis
http://pickinsider.com/wp/pennsylvania-derby-handicapping-breakdown/

Speed, speed, speed, speed, in a race full of speed.

Can't see it. Not even close to seeing it. Especially a Cupid/Gun Runner Exacta.

[pele polo]

Speed, speed, speed, speed, in a race full of speed.

Can't see it. Not even close to seeing it. Especially a Cupid/Gun Runner Exacta.

I don't know, a few of the biggest three year old races this year on dry, fast tracks with big fields have been merry-go-round races.

I'm thinking Awesome Slew will rate and has done so in the past. O'Neill has said Nyquist will be coming from the pace and Hit It Once More, coming out of restricted company, isn't fast enough to get out and clear from the far outside; he'll get caught wide and be forced to come off the pace. Cupid absolutely needs the lead and if he breaks will be hell bent on securing it. And I'm not sure others want to run with him. Awesome Slew could assume the early lead of Cupid doesn't get out.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I don't know, a few of the biggest three year old races this year on dry, fast tracks with big fields have been merry-go-round races.

I'm thinking Awesome Slew will rate and has done so in the past. O'Neill has said Nyquist will be coming from the pace and Hit It Once More, coming out of restricted company, isn't fast enough to get out and clear from the far outside; he'll get caught wide and be forced to come off the pace. Cupid absolutely needs the lead and if he breaks will be hell bent on securing it. And I'm not sure others want to run with him. Awesome Slew could assume the early lead of Cupid doesn't get out.

If the 5 of 6 speeds run free, so be it. I just can't see it. Especially with Nyquist in the field.

[pele polo]

Should be a fun race and best thing is we should all get fair value on whatever combination of runners we like. Just wish we didn't have to contend with that 30% takeout rate. Would be nice to see the PA Derby in Delaware.

Best of Luck

[Hapman]

Speed, speed, speed, speed, in a race full of speed.

Can't see it. Not even close to seeing it. Especially a Cupid/Gun Runner Exacta.


Wow after months of waiting someone finally approved my account :D Feels good to be able to participate.

I can't see Cupid doing anything in this race. I don't like the horse, never have.

[andtheyreoff]

Pretty strong.

Is this on TV anywhere?

It's on CSN Mid-Atlantic in the Philadelphia and Delmarva areas. Not much, but it's a little something.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Wow after months of waiting someone finally approved my account :D Feels good to be able to participate.

I can't see Cupid doing anything in this race. I don't like the horse, never have.

Months?

[Hapman]

Months?

Yes. I know it's crazy. I think I tried to sign up in June. I enjoy reading and lurk and recently noticed it let me reply last week. 3 months.

Apparently no one checks the e-mail for new account approvals much?

[samyn on the green]

Gun Runner poised to win this one. Power Run in the lane past all of the speed.

[Robert Fischer]

May be similar to Travers

1st Cupid
2nd Nyquist

with the battle being for 3rd/4th/5th = Gun Runner /Exaggerator /My Man Sam/Sunny Ridge/Wild About Deb

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Yes. I know it's crazy. I think I tried to sign up in June. I enjoy reading and lurk and recently noticed it let me reply last week. 3 months.

Apparently no one checks the e-mail for new account approvals much?

Ha.

Welcome aboard Hapman. :ThmbUp:

[reckless]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

[Track Phantom]

My prediction:

(1ST) 7 GUN RUNNER (6-1)
Perfect running style for this, never run a bad race on a fast track. Big acceleration on the far turn (ala California Chrome).

(2ND) 3 SUMMER REVOLUTION (8-1)
Ran big off a slow pace in the Kings Bishop. Might surprise with a stalking trip. Has 14x route winner, Adhocracy, in the female tree.

(3RD) 5 CUPID (5-1)
Thought both WV and IND Derby runs were excellent in sneaky deep fields. Working great. 4th Grade 2 race (won the previous 3).

(4TH) 9 NYQUIST (5-2)
Only two losses but were last two starts. Might be an early bloomer with the peers catching up somewhat. Tricky read in this spot.

(5TH) 1 AWESOME SLEW (10-1)
Shocking win from the 14 post in the Smarty Jones. 1 for 1 on a dry dirt track (and a blowout win, too) with blinkers on. Might love this track.

(6TH) 2 EXAGERRATOR (9-2)
Never been truly convinced about him especially with a built in weather excuse. Deserves respect but likely an underlay.

(7TH) 4 CONNECT (12-1)
Top connections but think the 101 fig two back was earned on an easy lead. Like others more.

(8TH) 10 SUNNY RIDGE (12-1)
Wouldn't be surprised if he improves the most in here. Trainer winning with everything.

(9TH) 6 WILD ABOUT DEB (20-1)
Only 5 starts so still improving. Needs a big move forward to take seriously though.

(10TH) 12 HIT IT ONCE MORE (20-1)
Form is great and could be the real deal. Don't think the race flow or post does him any favors.

(11TH) 8 MY MAN SAM (20-1)
Only a maiden win to his credit. This is the kind that either runs 40 back or is right there with a a win shot late.

(12TH) 11 DISCREET LOVER (30-1)
Looks too cheap. Trainer 6 for 201 this year...Yuck!

[HalvOnHorseracing]

I'm not making a selection, but I can tell you that when I saw Nyquist at the barn before the Haskell is was clear he had gone through a growth spurt. He was eating well, but he actually looked a little thin to me. He should be more filled out today and in better shape than he was for the Haskell. I'm expecting him to run to the top of his ability today.

[upthecreek]

It's on CSN Mid-Atlantic in the Philadelphia and Delmarva areas. Not much, but it's a little something.
The last couple years its been Laffit Pincay and Dick Jerardi

[bobphilo]

I think Nyquist is the horse to beat here which agrees with the TFUS prediction, but I am confused as to why they predict him as the winner when they predict he will get involved in an early pace duel with Cupid.
That was his downfall in the Preakness and Haskell, where he was compromised by chasing some so-called speed biases of the tracks. I'm picking him based on the condition that he will more intelligently rated off any hot pace, as O'Neil has stated. How can he be the pick of TFUS when they also predict that he will be involved with an early hot pace?

[Secondbest]

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better

[ronsmac]

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better
I thought the take was 20% on the exacta?

[castaway01]

I thought the take was 20% on the exacta?

That is correct. Trifecta is their crazy-high one, 30%.

[castaway01]

I could see the :1: Awesome Slew here. He loved the track in the prep race and you get 10-1. Also like Servis' :10: Sunny Ridge at 12-1ML as a possible upsetter.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Great writeup LDH

:9: has been looking phenomenal the past 2 weeks, like scary good. This race is his to lose.

:10: looks good enough to pick up what pieces remain after the pace collapse, which brings me back to Nyquist. O'neil said he may keep him off the pace, bluff or not if Cupid breaks clean he may never look back.

[Burls]

Nyquist - unbeaten on a fast track. Takes this one
Exagerator - can run on a fast track. Up for place.
Take out way too big at parx 30% for a exacta.
Win on Nyquist at 5/2 or better
I love Nyquist too, but I don't think I'm going to be able to bet him today.
I have a feeling the final odds on him will be closer to 2/5.
Looks like a ton of speed up front, probably another chalk-tastic dual between :2: and :9: in the final furlong.
I don't think I can bet this one.
But it will be fun to watch.

[Burls]

:10: looks good enough to pick up what pieces remain after the pace collapse,
I had thought that if there is any value in this race, it will be the :10: .
But from the comments here, it's starting to look like the odds on the :10: are going to tighten up heavily by post time.

[letswastemoney]

Exaggerator and Nyquist are in another league compared to these horses.

My Man Sam can benefit from a collapse.

Sunny Ride is my 4th choice.

[Robert Fischer]

Exaggerator and Nyquist are in another league compared to these horses.

My Man Sam can benefit from a collapse.

Sunny Ride is my 4th choice.

Sam is a big price if you still 'believe' in that one.

[Robert Fischer]

:5:/:9:/:2::6::7::8::10:

Looks like Cupid's race to win or lose.

Nyquist should be ready to fire. Any type of miscue from Cupid sets Nyquist sets him up well. I have to guess that Doug will want Mario forwardly placed, but with a touch in reserve to finish well. Doug knows what Baffert has here. He's going to try to run down Cupid in the stretch, not knock each other out in the first half.

Awesome Slew looked outrageous last race, but I think he should be considered a cheap toss.

Mike Smith(Summer Revolution) is the wild card in the pace discussion. If he sacrifices himself, then the race collapses. If he plays it safe, Nyquist should have smooth sailing for the place position.


3rd/4th/5th looks like it is going to be a battle among 3 horses.
Which 3? I think they come from Gun Runner /Exaggerator /My Man Sam/Sunny Ridge/Wild About Deb.
Gun Runner should make some kind of move for 2nd vs Nyquist and then be weakening late.
Exaggerator and the Desormeaux bros should be 'on' today in their on/off pattern. Closing hard to try to get 3rd from Gun Runner.
My Man Sam is decent and is higher odds than Exaggerator. Chad Brown is always good. Have to include for that 3rd/4th/5th battle.
Sunny Ridge is kind of similar to Gun Runner in some ways. Servis knows the track.
Wild About Deb is trained by Ramon Preciado and is the longest shot on the board.

[bobphilo]

:5:/:9:/:2::6::7::8::10:

Looks like Cupid's race to win or lose.

Nyquist should be ready to fire. Any type of miscue from Cupid sets Nyquist sets him up well. I have to guess that Doug will want Mario forwardly placed, but with a touch in reserve to finish well.

Awesome Slew looked outrageous last race, but I think he should be considered a cheap toss.

Mike Smith(Summer Revolution) is the wild card in the pace discussion. If he sacrifices himself, then the race collapses. If he plays it safe, Nyquist should have smooth sailing for the place position.


3rd/4th/5th looks like it is going to be a battle among 3 horses.
Which 3? I think they come from Gun Runner /Exaggerator /My Man Sam/Sunny Ridge/Wild About Deb.
Gun Runner should make some kind of move for 2nd vs Nyquist and then be weakening late.
Exaggerator and the Desormeaux bros should be 'on' today in their on/off pattern. Closing hard to try to get 3rd from Gun Runner.
My Man Sam is decent and is higher odds than Exaggerator. Chad Brown is always good. Have to include for that 3rd/4th/5th battle.
Sunny Ridge is kind of similar to Gun Runner in some ways. Servis knows the track.
Wild About Deb is trained by Ramon Preciado and is the longest shot on the board.

O'Neil has stated that he will abandon the dumb tactics that cost him the Preakness and Haskell and have him rate here. If so, Nyquist should prevail.

[bobphilo]

That is correct. Trifecta is their crazy-high one, 30%.
Killing the goose that laid the golden egg. What else is new in the world of greed?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

82/1?

Did the :6: show up with only 3 legs?

[Burls]

Nyquist looks BIG and STRONG. ....

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Most impressed by the :5: Cupid in the Post Parade. Looks ready to roll.

:5::10:/:2::5::6::10:

[Tee]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

Nice tee as usual :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Lemon Drop Husker]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

Well done Tee! :jump:

Just couldn't see that one. :(

[outofthebox]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.Nice job....

[Robert Fischer]

2, 5, 7, 9 / 2, 5, 7, 9 / 6

i keyed the 6 third for .50cents but I didn't predict that :4: would win this one...

[Tom]

Andy does it again. :ThmbUp:

Nyquist, Exaggerator......so much for their 15 minutes.
Gun Runner, just can't close the deal.

[Tom]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

Nice. :ThmbUp:

[bugboy]

nice pickin' my man..great job reckless

[Alwaysonpoint36]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

way to bring it home man.... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[bugboy]

nice pk tee

[Robert Fischer]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

Well done! you crushed it

[outofthebox]

Nyquist has really fallen off. Sitting the perfect trip and empty. Some of you on this site predicted his tailing off after the Preakness , citing physical issues..you might be right. 1-2 finishers really flatter Arrogate. Missed the tri and super because i did not throw in Ramon Preciado at Park. I must be an idiot...

[outofthebox]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.Great capping Reckless!! Hope you made a great score!!

[Secondbest]

I thought the take was 20% on the exacta?
A little !ate but your right .my mistake

[Secondbest]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.
WTG

[ReplayRandall]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

Outstanding, Reckless! Big Win and Big Exacta hits....Congrats...:ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Tee]

Thank you to everyone for the kind words.

Good job Reckless - very nicely done!!

[cj]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

Well done buddy!

(Reckless too!)

[Tom]

Dittos, reckless...missed your post!

[Secondbest]

Same here good job reckless

[DeltaLover]

:4: Connect @ 16/1. Just give him a decent ride Javier.

MASTER :ThmbUp:

[DeltaLover]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

:ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Tee and Reckless fuggin awesome!

I didn't feel strongly about anybody in the race. Got blown out of exactas and collected a measly place payout on a small bet overall on Gun Runner! Like seeing my brethren bangin longballs when I'm just bunting! :cool:

[Exotic1]

I am going to make a major win bet on Connect, who is 12-1 ML and could be somewhat lower at post time but still a square price.

I will make exacta boxes keying Connect with the following horses: 8-1 Summer Revolution, 6-1 Gun Runner, 20-1 Hit It Once, 20-1 Awesome Slew, 20-1 My Man Sam, 5-2 Nyquist and 9-2 Exaggerator.

I know it's most of the field and the two favorites seem somewhat vulnerable but I simply refuse to ignore their chances. They are still two of the top three 3yos in the country. If they do, in fact, stink up the place I have a real shot of making a decent score.

I am also small making 'action' bets -- a 10 cent superfecta boxing all the horses that last ran in the Travers Stakes: 2-4-7-8. And another 10 cent key s-fecta 4/278/278/278 and 278/4/278/278. Plus I'll make $1 exacta and trifecta boxes, plus others just keying Connect on top.

All this is simply based on Arrogate's scary Travers performance, one of the greatest efforts I have witnessed. Hopefully, some might stay away from horses that ran in the Travers because they all lost by a mile. I am especially keen on Connect and Gun Runner since they actually made some little run during the race.

Good luck to everyone.

Spot on !!!

[reckless]

Thanks to all for the kudos.

It was one of the best days I ever, ever had.... I really crushed the exacta and I got necked for 3rd by a 60-1 bomb over a 20-1 piece of mine.... And had the pick 3 that paid $91 a bunch of times.

Hope every one had a good day today, and does every day.

[Redboard]

......

Nyquist, Exaggerator......so much for their 15 minutes.
.....

BC Dirt Mile?

[iceknight]

Thanks to all for the kudos.

It was one of the best days I ever, ever had.... I really crushed the exacta and I got necked for 3rd by a 60-1 bomb over a 20-1 piece of mine.... And had the pick 3 that paid $91 a bunch of times.

Hope every one had a good day today, and does every day. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[dilanesp]

Andy does it again. :ThmbUp:

Nyquist, Exaggerator......so much for their 15 minutes.
Gun Runner, just can't close the deal.

Exaggerator will be fine. He just needs a rainstorm.

[EMD4ME]

Thanks to all for the kudos.

It was one of the best days I ever, ever had.... I really crushed the exacta and I got necked for 3rd by a 60-1 bomb over a 20-1 piece of mine.... And had the pick 3 that paid $91 a bunch of times.

Hope every one had a good day today, and does every day.

Sorry, just saw this.

WAY TO GO!!!!!!!!

[camourous]

Exaggerator will be fine. He just needs a rainstorm.

obviously he's better in the slop, but in the Belmont, Travers and PA Derby he was ridden the exact same way, Drop way back, move 8 wide down the backside and have nothing. IMO he is not a deep closer, he used to race right near the lead, the only times he raced well back was when the pace was absolutley suicidal.

[Tom]

BC Dirt Mile?

Against older?
I doubt Exx has another good race left in him.
Nyquist, maybe.

[Bigadam119]

obviously he's better in the slop, but in the Belmont, Travers and PA Derby he was ridden the exact same way, Drop way back, move 8 wide down the backside and have nothing. IMO he is not a deep closer, he used to race right near the lead, the only times he raced well back was when the pace was absolutley suicidal.

Very astute comment here. I never thought of his races that way but it makes sense.

[cj]

TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes winners at Parx yesterday

[rsetup]

TimeformUS Speed Figures for the stakes winners at Parx yesterdayDid the runner get a better number than Connect?

[bobphilo]

Based on the formula I posted in my discussion of the effect of Pace on Final Time, I find that the split at the 6F pace call was 1.6 seconds faster than even ideal pace given the final time. This indicates a quick pace that was within normal limits of pace variation and neither a slow nor suicidal pace. Closers may have had a slight advantage and I believe the results reflect that.
I can give a more detailed explanation upon request.

I am looking forward to seeing what CJ's speed and pace figures show as well.

[cj]

Did the runner get a better number than Connect?

No, same number.

[cj]

Based on the formula I posted in my discussion of the effect of Pace on Final Time, I find that the split at the 6F pace call was 1.6 seconds faster than even ideal pace given the final time. This indicates a quick pace that was within normal limits of pace variation and neither a slow nor suicidal pace. Closers may have had a slight advantage and I believe the results reflect that.
I can give a more detailed explanation upon request.

I am looking forward to seeing what CJ's speed and pace figures show as well.


This is how we have it, on the fast side but not coded as red.

1/4 142
1/2 146
3/4 136
1m 131
Fin 128

[bobphilo]

No, same number.
Lifetime tops for both. No surprise since 3YOs are really teenagers going into growth spurts.

I think Gunrunner ran the better race if one takes ground loss into consideration.

[bobphilo]

This is how we have it, on the fast side but not coded as red.

1/4 142
1/2 146
3/4 136
1m 131
Fin 128

Bingo!!! Very glad to see this. The results of our methods are in complete agreement. Basic rule of research - replectability validates both.

[dilanesp]

obviously he's better in the slop, but in the Belmont, Travers and PA Derby he was ridden the exact same way, Drop way back, move 8 wide down the backside and have nothing. IMO he is not a deep closer, he used to race right near the lead, the only times he raced well back was when the pace was absolutley suicidal.

That's not it. In all of his off track races, he raced far back but made an EARLY move. He moved at the 7/16th in the Santa Anita Derby, the 6 furlong pole in the Preakness, and passing the stands the first time in the Delta Jackpot.

My guess is because he loves the mud so much he gets exuberant and wants to go early.

[rsetup]

No, same number. You think that's accurate?

[cj]

You think that's accurate?

For what we measure, yes.

Enough with the passive aggressive stuff. Just say what you want to say.

[rsetup]

For what we measure, yes.

Enough with the passive aggressive stuff. Just say what you want to say. I assumed wider trips were added into your figures. I was wrong and I'm kinda surprised.

[cj]

I assumed wider trips were added into your figures. I was wrong and I'm kinda surprised.

Once ground loss is available in our data field I'll include it.

[bobphilo]

Once ground loss is available in our data field I'll include it.
Looking forward to it. That would make TFUS the only rating service that I know of that takes both pace and ground loss into account.

[Fager Fan]

Rumor is that this was likely Nyquist's last race.

[menifee]

I hope it is not Nyquist's last race though it probably makes sense to sell him from a breeding perspective.

Parx is a strange surface. Remember CC ran a flat Belmont then a bad PA derby and look what he went on to do. Sometimes horses fall out of form.

[Fager Fan]

I hope it is not Nyquist's last race though it probably makes sense to sell him from a breeding perspective.

Parx is a strange surface. Remember CC ran a flat Belmont then a bad PA derby and look what he went on to do. Sometimes horses fall out of form.

He's already sold to stud to WinStar. I think the deal was back in the Spring (I don't know if it was after his derby win without looking it up). I'd prefer that he go back home and give the BCC a shot instead of assuming he can't win or run well there.

[Redboard]

He's already sold to stud to WinStar. I think the deal was back in the Spring (I don't know if it was after his derby win without looking it up). I'd prefer that he go back home and give the BCC a shot instead of assuming he can't win or run well there.

I Agree. I thought Nyquist ran a decent race. He was right there at the end and it looked like he was ready to pounce. He’s won at SA twice before. Unless the connections know something we don’t.

[Fager Fan]

I Agree. I thought Nyquist ran a decent race. He was right there at the end and it looked like he was ready to pounce. He’s won at SA twice before. Unless the connections know something we don’t.

Which may be the case and would explain the downturn in form. I don't think so though, but that's just a hunch. The TC seems to affect certain horses quite negatively and have a hard time recovering from the experience.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

All the more reason to appreciate the 3YOs that come out and continue to do well. Not sure what to make of this race at all.

Nyquist looked to pounce but came up flat. Gun Runner ran well in defeat with the ground loss. Connect had a great trip but still dug in at the end. Exaggerator confirmed my thinking as well as many others that he needs an off track and pace set up. My man sam seems to be a cut below the group.

[classhandicapper]

Rumor is that this was likely Nyquist's last race.

I thought it was really hard to know what to expect from Nyquist Saturday.

IMO, he ran very well in the Preakness. Then he got sick and missed some training. That was already a red flag going into the Haskell. Sure, he ran better than it looked in that one because he was involved in the fast pace, but he still lost the duel and tired. If you wanted, I could see giving him a pass there and expecting him to be sharper next time. But he didn't resume serious training. They sent him away for a few weeks. To me, it all sounded like a horse that wasn't 100% that they were trying to get moving back in the right direction.

You can argue that the other horses are moving past him now, but I don't think this is even the same Nyquist we saw earlier in the year, let alone one that's developing. If they can't get him going in the right direction, there's not much point in getting him beat up and hurting his reputation.

[bobphilo]

I hope it is not Nyquist's last race though it probably makes sense to sell him from a breeding perspective.

Parx is a strange surface. Remember CC ran a flat Belmont then a bad PA derby and look what he went on to do. Sometimes horses fall out of form.
The difference with CC is that he was not in high demand as a stallion due to his "unfashionable pedigree", so the decision to keep him racing was an economic one. Nyquist may be worth more at stud at this point.

[burnsy]

People under appreciate the change in tradition that horse racing has experienced. Two year olds come into the 3 yo season under developed and somewhat inexperienced. They just don't race a lot. Some hardly at all. So you get 3yo's that have potential, training and running months behind the old traditional schedule. Now, if you get a freak like California Chrome or American Pharoah it does not matter, they just keep improving and winning. These others flash their "early brilliance" until the others surpass. Gun Runner, lightly raced.........Connect, lightly raced......... American Freedom lightly raced............Arrogate hardly raced.

The trainers scheduling does not really match the seasons anymore. Anyone that says these horses and the game run in tradition............is out to lunch. Some good horses are handled with "kid gloves" and the way things go with injuries and the short careers, its for good reason.

You may think Burnsy is out to lunch but besides the few horses that really take over. Just look at recent Derby winners and their career in the later stages. Many of them are 6' tall Little Leaguers that get passed when they 14. I'm admitting there are exceptions but its a different game now. The training and racing habits have shifted.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Is this just the Uncle Mo effect? I'm not the only one that thought he was an ultra precocious then flame out type.

I definitely give him one more shot in the BC though. Whichever race they choose. I think he deserves that and his race Saturday wasn't that bad for all the reasons Class mentioned.

[bobphilo]

Is this just the Uncle Mo effect? I'm not the only one that thought he was an ultra precocious then flame out type.

I definitely give him one more shot in the BC though. Whichever race they choose. I think he deserves that and his race Saturday wasn't that bad for all the reasons Class mentioned.
Perhaps running him in the BC Classic would be the sporting thing to do if he remains sound. However the way the modern game is played, the business model dictates that they take the stud money and run, rather than risk losing in the Classic. Horse racing is no longer the gentleman's game it once was. The corporate capitalist model is now the rule. Personally, I think it stinks but cannot deny the reality.

Uncle Moe was a very talented horse who's career was cut short by liver disease. That is not the same as the unsoundness that many "hot" stallions pass on to their offspring.

[Robert Fischer]

I'll have to study the video replay, but live it seemed that this race was a little weak. The big guns didn't fire. Connect seemed to get a good trip and be running at the end. Gun Runner is not a horse that I consider to be in the cream of the crop.

We kind of made Nyquist into a star after beating Frosted(who had an awful trip and who has fallen off the map), and winning the Derby with a very good trip.

Nyquist is a good horse, he's just not as good as his performances looked if you took them literally.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'll have to study the video replay, but live it seemed that this race was a little weak. The big guns didn't fire. Connect seemed to get a good trip and be running at the end. Gun Runner is not a horse that I consider to be in the cream of the crop.

We kind of made Nyquist into a star after beating Frosted(who had an awful trip and who has fallen off the map), and winning the Derby with a very good trip.

Nyquist is a good horse, he's just not as good as his performances looked if you took them literally.

It's real easy to confuse these sons of Tapit isn't it! LOL! Mohaymen right?

[Robert Fischer]

It's real easy to confuse these sons of Tapit isn't it! LOL! Mohaymen right? YES!

People under appreciate the change in tradition that horse racing has experienced. Two year olds come into the 3 yo season under developed and somewhat inexperienced. They just don't race a lot. Some hardly at all. So you get 3yo's that have potential, training and running months behind the old traditional schedule. Now, if you get a freak like California Chrome or American Pharoah it does not matter, they just keep improving and winning. These others flash their "early brilliance" until the others surpass. Gun Runner, lightly raced.........Connect, lightly raced......... American Freedom lightly raced............Arrogate hardly raced.

The trainers scheduling does not really match the seasons anymore. Anyone that says these horses and the game run in tradition............is out to lunch. Some good horses are handled with "kid gloves" and the way things go with injuries and the short careers, its for good reason.

You may think Burnsy is out to lunch but besides the few horses that really take over. Just look at recent Derby winners and their career in the later stages. Many of them are 6' tall Little Leaguers that get passed when they 14. I'm admitting there are exceptions but its a different game now. The training and racing habits have shifted.

I agree Burnsy

You are right about the 6' tall Little Leaguers

The triple crown preps, and series is also a hard grind. Survival of the fittest.

And there is an incentive to try to peak for the triple crown series if you have a great 2yo/3yo. Nowadays that also means stretching out to route races.

Your foundation comments are valid as well. I'm not a trainer. If I had to guess, I would guess a balanced progressive training and racing regimen would be best. I'd also guess that horses are delicate and reach a peak for a short while and then the spacing comes in, where you have to back off and re-gain the momentum back up to a peak again.

[Fager Fan]

He's already sold to stud to WinStar. I think the deal was back in the Spring (I don't know if it was after his derby win without looking it up). I'd prefer that he go back home and give the BCC a shot instead of assuming he can't win or run well there.

Sorry, I was wrong here, it was Darley who bought his breeding rights, and it was last Nov.

[burnsy]

YES!



I agree Burnsy

You are right about the 6' tall Little Leaguers

The triple crown preps, and series is also a hard grind. Survival of the fittest.

And there is an incentive to try to peak for the triple crown series if you have a great 2yo/3yo. Nowadays that also means stretching out to route races.

where you have to back off and re-gain the momentum back up to a peak again.



....And that right there is a mother F'er, when the others are progressing and passing in the later part of the season...........many just don't make the cut or are never the same again.