Top Horse Analytics: 09/21/2016 BEL Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL, CD, GP
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU, DMR, GPW, KEE, OP, SA, SAR, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.20a)

Race Cancellations (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)
Full Charts (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (THA) (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/21/16, BEL, Race 1, 1.30 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Dean's Ticket [5/2] Davis D / Contessa Gary C. SFEW
097.4478 :6: Bow Town Cat [9/5] Lezcano J / Reynolds Patrick L. L
093.7083 :3: Bellamy Torch [5-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. T
092.2181 :4: Hokie Fever [20-1] Davis J A / Ferraro James W. C
082.6971 2 Muselet [3-1] Saez L / Violette. Jr. Richard J
082.3522 5 Ocean Conquest [15-1] Fragoso P / Persaud Randi

09/21/16, BEL, Race 2, 2.01 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $47,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Captain Serious [9/5] Davis D / Hushion Michael E. TSE
096.7950 :2: Bug Juice [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Klesaris Steve JFC
094.8566 :4: Pegasus Red [4-1] Lezcano J / Levine Bruce N.
093.7750 :3: Global Positioning [8-1] Franco M / Chatterpaul Naipaul WL
093.3789 1 Street Lord [6-1] Arroyo A S / Gullo Gary P.
092.9090 6 Tug of War [10-1] Fragoso P / Gaffney Hubert

09/21/16, BEL, Race 3, 2.32 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $46,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :4: Discreet Encounter [5-1] Lezcano J / Kimmel John C. FEC
099.3605 :2: Port More [8/5] Ortiz J L / Sciacca Gary J
098.8096 :6: Outstanding Gio [6-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T. SL
098.1545 :7: Kid Perfect [8-1] Davis D / McPeek Kenneth G. W
093.8294 1 New Road [20-1] Fragoso P / Persaud Randi
093.6781 5 Mabrouk(b+) [4-1] Castellano J / Terranova. II John P.
091.1650 3 Shamcat [8-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Dutrow Anthony W. T

09/21/16, BEL, Race 4, 3.04 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Snag [10-1] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A.
099.0259 :2: Kitten's Dilemma(b+) [6-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. T
098.4814 :1: Big Timer [4-1] Franco M / Motion H. Graham W
098.3453 :3: Richmond Street [2-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. FEC
098.2717 7 Brianbakescookies [5-1] Saez L / Farrell Desmond SL
096.5405 6 Uncle Gio [5-1] Ortiz J L / Nihei Michelle J
*Scratch* 8 Core Competency [12-1] Cancel E / Wilkes Ian R.
*Scratch* 4 Second Street [20-1] DeCarlo C P / Albertrani Thomas

09/21/16, BEL, Race 5, 3.36 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $55,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Eqho [10-1] Rosario J / Lyster Stephen S. TC
098.8797 :5: Frosty Lady [3-1] Saez L / Schettino Dominick FE
098.0810 :1: Weather Girl [6-1] Castellano J / Asmussen Steven M. S
097.9882 :2: Hudson River Gal [4-1] Ortiz J L / Maker Michael J.
096.1879 7 Amazing Anne [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gargan Danny
095.3073 3 Indygita [5-1] Lopez P / Serpe Philip M. JL
093.2488 4 Khaleesi Kat [5-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. W

09/21/16, BEL, Race 6, 4.09 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $77,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Animal Appeal [3/5] Ortiz. Jr. I / Englehart Jeremiah C. S
098.1280 :7: Touch of Bling [15-1] Saez L / Maker Michael J. FL
097.8893 :4: Conscription [8-1] Ortiz J L / Motion H. Graham
097.8624 :8: Wild About Harry [5-1] Castellano J / Rice Linda TEC
097.3742 2 Enchanteresse (IRE) [4-1] Franco M / Proctor Thomas F.
096.4849 1 Shayna Lady [15-1] Lopez P / Weaver George JW
*Scratch* 6 Mastic [7/2] Rider TBA / Arriaga Antonio
*Scratch* 3 Kelsocait [6/5] Rider TBA / Contessa Gary C.

09/21/16, BEL, Race 7, 4.41 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Gaming [8-1] Ortiz J L / Gullo Gary P. JFE
099.5413 :6: Heated Verdict [5/2] Saez L / Weaver George
096.3720 :5: Fearthefalcon [4-1] Franco M / Klesaris Steve SC
095.9998 :8: Excluded [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Toscano. Jr. John T.
095.1245 2 Fear [6-1] Davis D / LeCesse Michael A.
091.9518 1 Humboldt N Frost [15-1] Lezcano J / Englehart Jeremiah C. TWL
086.2484 7 River Knight [30-1] Torres J / Pringle Edmund
*Scratch* 4 Bajan Summer [4-1] Castellano J / Sciacca Gary

09/21/16, BEL, Race 8, 5.13 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $65,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :8: Ack Naughty [8/5] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. TSFC
097.2364 :4: Kundray [7/2] Velazquez J R / Matz Michael R. E
094.1948 :6: Feeling Bossy [4-1] Saez L / Jerkens James A.
094.0077 :9: Sugar Mags [15-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Donk David G.
092.2268 1 Roman Ceres [8-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I.
090.2705 10 Loon River [20-1] Ortiz J L / Kimmel John C. J
088.7572 3 Saturday Bliss [12-1] Franco M / Weaver George W
088.2916 7 Lakeside Sunset [6-1] Luzzi M J / Brown Bruce R. L
*Scratch* 5 Katniss the Victor [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 2 Conquest Superstep [7/2] Rosario J / Casse Mark E.
*Scratch* 12 Bi Light of Day [20-1] Rider TBA / Hertler John O.
*Scratch* 11 Legally Bay [20-1] Rider TBA / Coffey Marialice

09/21/16, BEL, Race 9, 5.45 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :10: Brooklyn Speights [7/2] Cancel E / Lynch Brian A. EL
099.7028 :2: Dan the Man [8-1] Franco M / Conway. Jr. Daniel H. T
098.1634 :4: Scarselletta [30-1] Worrie A S / Scott Phillip W
096.3022 :7: Priest N the Rabbi [5/2] Ortiz J L / Asmussen Steven M. S
095.6889 5 Gait to Heaven [15-1] Lopez P / Quartarolo Anthony T. J
095.5543 11 Southern Union [4-1] Saez L / Brown Bruce R. F
094.8105 1a Ezra [6-1] Carmouche K / Zito Nicholas P.
094.0137 6 Vino Blanco(b+) [12-1] Arroyo A S / Bush Thomas M.
091.9793 9 Bert's Posse(b+) [20-1] Arrieta F / Feron Kathleen M.
091.6012 8 Sky Ace [30-1] Davis D / Barker Edward R. C
090.3085 3 Zio Elio [30-1] Gryder A T / Schosberg Richard E.
*Scratch* 1 Fullback Foye [6-1] Rosario J / Zito Nicholas P.

[Augenj]

END OF PICKS

RESULTS FOLLOW

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.09.20a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/21/16, BEL, Race 1, 1:30 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :1: Dean's Ticket [5/2] SFEW 1st - 8.20 3.50 2.30
097.4478 :6: Bow Town Cat [9/5 * ] L 2nd - 3.20 2.10 $2 Ex 24.80
093.7083 :3: Bellamy Torch [5-1] T 4th
092.2181 :4: Hokie Fever [20-1] C
082.6971 2 Muselet [3-1] J 3rd - 2.50
082.3522 5 Ocean Conquest [15-1]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 2, 2:01 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $47,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :5: Captain Serious [9/5 * ] TSE bad steps stretch, vanned off
096.7950 :2: Bug Juice [5/2] JFC 4th
094.8566 :4: Pegasus Red [4-1] 2nd - 10.80 5.30
093.7750 :3: Global Positioning [8-1] WL 3rd - 3.70
093.3789 1 Street Lord [6-1] 1st - 40.40 15.00 6.80
092.9090 6 Tug of War [10-1]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 3, 2:32 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $46,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :4: Discreet Encounter [5-1] FEC 3rd - 4.20
099.3605 :2: Port More [8/5 * ] J 4th
098.8096 :6: Outstanding Gio [6-1] SL 2nd - 9.90 5.50
098.1545 :7: Kid Perfect [8-1] W
093.8294 1 New Road [20-1]
093.6781 5 Mabrouk(b+) [4-1] 1st - 15.80 5.90 4.20
091.1650 3 Shamcat [8-1] T

09/21/16, BEL, Race 4, 3:04 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :5: Snag [10-1] 3rd - 3.60
099.0259 :2: Kitten's Dilemma(b+) [6-1] T
098.4814 :1: Big Timer [4-1] W 4th
098.3453 :3: Richmond Street [2-1 * ] FEC 1st - 4.50 2.50 2.20
098.2717 7 Brianbakescookies [5-1] SL
096.5405 6 Uncle Gio [5-1] J 2nd - 4.90 3.00
*Scratch* 8 Core Competency [12-1]
*Scratch* 4 Second Street [20-1]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 5, 3:36 ET
1 1/16M [Turf] 1.38.03 STARTER ALLOWANCE. Purse $55,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :6: Eqho [10-1] TC 5th to 7th
098.8797 :5: Frosty Lady [3-1 * ] FE 2nd - 5.50 3.90
098.0810 :1: Weather Girl [6-1] S 1st - 16.20 7.40 3.90
097.9882 :2: Hudson River Gal [4-1]
096.1879 7 Amazing Anne [7/2] 3rd - 3.80
095.3073 3 Indygita [5-1] JL
093.2488 4 Khaleesi Kat [5-1] W 4th

09/21/16, BEL, Race 6, 4:09 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $77,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :5: Animal Appeal [3/5 * ] S 3rd - 2.10
098.1280 :7: Touch of Bling [15-1] FL 2nd - 20.00 4.90
097.8893 :4: Conscription [8-1]
097.8624 :8: Wild About Harry [5-1] TEC 1st - 12.60 6.00 2.40
097.3742 2 Enchanteresse (IRE) [4-1] 4th
096.4849 1 Shayna Lady [15-1] JW
*Scratch* 6 Mastic [7/2]
*Scratch* 3 Kelsocait [6/5]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 7, 4:41 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :3: Gaming [8-1] JFE 1st to 7th
099.5413 :6: Heated Verdict [5/2 * ] 4th
096.3720 :5: Fearthefalcon [4-1] SC 2nd - 3.80 3.00
095.9998 :8: Excluded [7/2] 1st - 9.10 3.90 3.20
095.1245 2 Fear [6-1] 3rd - 5.20
091.9518 1 Humboldt N Frost [15-1] TWL
086.2484 7 River Knight [30-1]
*Scratch* 4 Bajan Summer [4-1]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 8, 5:13 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.38.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $65,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :8: Ack Naughty [8/5 * ] TSFC 3rd to 5th
097.2364 :4: Kundray [7/2] E 3rd - 3.50
094.1948 :6: Feeling Bossy [4-1] 1st - 13.80 7.40 4.20
094.0077 :9: Sugar Mags [15-1] 2nd - 14.40 6.50
092.2268 1 Roman Ceres [8-1]
090.2705 10 Loon River [20-1] J
088.7572 3 Saturday Bliss [12-1] W 4th
088.2916 7 Lakeside Sunset [6-1] L
*Scratch* 5 Katniss the Victor [5/2]
*Scratch* 2 Conquest Superstep [7/2]
*Scratch* 12 Bi Light of Day [20-1]
*Scratch* 11 Legally Bay [20-1]

09/21/16, BEL, Race 9, 5:45 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :10: Brooklyn Speights [7/2] EL 2nd - 5.00 3.40
099.7028 :2: Dan the Man [8-1] T
098.1634 :4: Scarselletta [30-1] W
096.3022 :7: Priest N the Rabbi [5/2 * ] S 1st - 6.80 4.00 3.30
095.6889 5 Gait to Heaven [15-1] J
095.5543 11 Southern Union [4-1] F 4th
094.8105 1a Ezra [6-1] 3rd - 6.00
094.0137 6 Vino Blanco(b+) [12-1]
091.9793 9 Bert's Posse(b+) [20-1]
091.6012 8 Sky Ace [30-1] C
090.3085 3 Zio Elio [30-1]
*Scratch* 1 Fullback Foye [6-1]

[Augenj]

END OF RESULTS