Hong Kong Sep. 21st Happy Valley

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for September 21st at Happy Valley.
Weather report: 76 degrees partly cloudy with a 10% chance of rain wind: ENE 15mph.
Post time: 7.15am ET 4.15pm PT Rail: “C” Course, track listed: Good to Yielding

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160921_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html
http://www.drf.com/hk (With a link to a live video feed)

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 1 :9: Glory Star (4-1) Trained by a 2 percenter and the rider still hasn’t killed the duck. Was outrun by a longshot who didn’t finish all that impressive.
RACE 4 :9: Super Sweet Orange (7-2) Trainer had a horrible win percentage with favourites last year and is starting the new meet in that same fashion. Runner has a bad habit of moving into contention and then just flattening out.

Races with runners coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's).
None

Horses off my watch list:
Race 3 :1: Supreme Flight (13-1): Race 15 Flat-footed at start, ridden to make up ground, settling in box seat. Disappointed for run 500m, blocked top of straight, switched out 180m to get run, boxed on.
Race 8 :8: Little Island (11-1): Race *743 Close up in 4th, always within striking distance, loomed 250M, beaten off by first two 100M but held 3rd comfortably. Race *685 Raced against rail in midfield, pushed along 400M, responded moderately, tight for room mid-straight and late stages, never a serious threat.

Longshots:
Race 3 :1: Supreme Flight (13-1)
Race 4 :4: Entrusting (11-1)
Race 6 :5: Presidentparamount (10-1) and :1: Happy Surveys (16-1)
Race 8 :1: Sharp Sailor (16-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody!
It looks like another value packed day at Happy Valley with big fields in ALL 8 Turf races.

I won’t be posting live selections at Hong Kong any longer for a number of reasons.
But I took a look at the M/L’s and the early odds and came up with some preliminary picks for each race. Hopefully the live tote action will shed some more light on these and any others I might have missed. Later tote action (by 5 mins to post) may cause Key pick alterations, but they all look pretty solid for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. The most competitive race seems to be #8.
Good Luck today!

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9.............7:15 AM EST

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12........7:45 AM EST

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2...........8:15 AM EST

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10...8:45 AM EST

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9.........9:15 AM EST

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9.......9:45 AM EST

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4........10:15 AM EST

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9....10:50 AM EST

[kevb]

hello Woodbine

[kevb]

R1:

Q :2::4::5: / :1::2::3::4::5::9:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 Class 4 1800 Metres

:1: Golden Dragon (8-1) Was bet down after the break in meets, chased a lone speed winner and was just not fast enough to catch him. Will need pace, so hopefully the :2: , :5: and :10: hook up on the front end. Not all that keen on the favourite :9: Glory Star (3-1) Chased a quitter but was outrun by a longshot who finished up on his wrong lead .

:1: Over :2: :3: :4: :8: :9:

Morning Kevb

[woodbinepmi]

Race 1 results:

:10: - :5: - :3: Winner paid $ 156

Didn't see that one coming, lone speed kills.

[woodbinepmi]

After the first 2 races, looks like the best place to be is close to the front. The times have been fast by a little over a length so far, with both races pretty weak fields for their classes. Haven't seen anything that has caught my eye for their next race out. Still enjoying Moreira being out.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 Class 4 1200 Metres

:1: Supreme Flight (12-1) Ran into serious trouble while being blocked in the stretch in his first race after the break while being beaten by the favourite (#3 in here) who had a much easier trip. Worried about the weight allowance but willing to take the plunge at the price.

:1: Over :3: :4: :5:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 3 results:

:7: - :3: - :1: Winner pays: $ 15.40

Tough beat, lost by 3/4 of a length at 11-1, no excuse just got outrun in the lane.

[kevb]

R4:

WP :2: :12:

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 Class 4 1650 Metres

Taking a flyer on the :4: Entrusting (9-1) ran into some trouble on the dirt in his last, if he can run to his race 3 back he could be there close at the wire, not all that keen about playing a maiden after 22 races.

[woodbinepmi]

Race 4 results:

:1: - :7: - :6: Winner pays: $ 10.40

[woodbinepmi]

Race 5 Class 4 1200 Metres

Got to nothing here.

[kevb]

R5:

Sets up for a closer

WP :8:

[Nitro]

It turned out to be a pretty good morning! The final tote analysis confirmed some of the early picks as well as pointing to a few other entries getting good action. The only real surprise came in Race #1 where a big LS scored.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8

[VigorsTheGrey]

It turned out to be a pretty good morning! The final tote analysis confirmed some of the early picks as well as pointing to a few other entries getting good action. The only real surprise came in Race #1 where a big LS scored.

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11

R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8

There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...

[Nitro]

There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...
And there's nothing surprising about seeing such foolish statements!
Who said anything about picking winners using those selections? (Not that there's anything wrong with that - like Dutching perhaps)
If you read my original post a little bit more carefully I did mention Quinellas & Tris, but keep in mind these were only "preliminary" picks.
I won't post my actual selections off the tote because the races are over, and of course the next person will simply make accusations of red boarding.

It's unfortunate that you never followed the past Sha Tin threads. You might have gained an appreciation for things being posted that offered lots of value.

[Nitro]

There is nothing surprising about picking 6 horses in each race and have 1 of them win...And there's nothing surprising about seeing such foolish statements!
Who said anything about picking winners using those selections? (Not that there's anything wrong with that - like Dutching perhaps)
If you read my original post a little bit more carefully I did mention Quinellas & Tris, but keep in mind these were only "preliminary" picks.
I won't post my actual selections off the tote because the races are over, and of course the next person will simply make accusations of red boarding.

It's unfortunate that you never followed the past Sha Tin threads. You might have gained an appreciation for things being posted that offered lots of value.
UPDATE: I received a message related to my comment about Dutching the preliminary selections. It simply read, "Check-out the results of just Dutching your Top 3 early picks. Thanks for your enthusiasm in HK racing! It's contagious. Ed"

So I did, and here's what I found:

R#1 – 1800M (9F) Turf...... 2-4 W/ 1-3-9
Results: 10-5-3-8
Dutch - 2 ( 4.8/1 ) – 4 ( 8.4/1 ) – 1 ( 7.8/1 ) - ($43.00) – ($43.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 7.8 8.4 BET PRF
$12 $18 $19
$19 $12 $12 $43 $66 155%
$109 $109 $109

R#2 - 1800M (9F) Turf...... 3-1 W/ 9-5-6-12
Results: 9-12-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 5.1/1 ) – 1 ( 3.7/1 ) – 9 ( 3.5/1 ) - $22.00 – ($21.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.5 3.7 5.1 BET PRF
$9 $9 $12
$12 $12 $9 $33 $22 67%
$55 $55 $55

R#3 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-4 W/ 7-5-1-2
Results: 7-3-1-4
Dutch - 3 ( 1.8/1 ) – 4 ( 7.8/1 ) – 7 ( 6.7/1 ) - $20.00 – ($1.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
1.8 6.7 7.8 BET PRF
$6 $15 $18
$18 $6 $6 $30 $20 66%
$49 $49 $49

R#4 - 1650M (8.25F) Turf...... 4-9 W/ 3-7-12-10
Results: 1-7-6-5
Dutch - 4 ( 13/1 ) – 9 ( 2.8/1 ) – 3 ( 43/1 ) - ($30.00) – ($31.00)

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.8 13.0 43.0 BET PRF
$8 $28 $88
$22 $6 $2 $30 $58 193%
$88 $84 $88

R#5 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 8-3 W/ 5-2-11-9
Results: 5-1-9-11
Dutch - 8 ( 6.9/1 ) – 3 ( 4.8/1 ) – 5 ( 4.8/1 ) - $48.00 – $17.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
4.8 4.8 6.9 BET PRF
$12 $12 $16
$16 $16 $12 $43 $48 112%
$92 $92 $92


R#6 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 4-2 W/ 12-11-3-9
Results: 4-10-1-12
Dutch - 4 ( 6.2/1 ) – 2 ( 3.8/1 ) – 12 ( 4.8/1 ) - $33.00 – $50.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.8 4.8 6.2 BET PRF
$10 $12 $14
$14 $12 $10 $36 $33 92%
$69 $69 $69

R#7 - 1200M (6F) Turf...... 3-2 W/ 1-5-12-4
Results: 1-8-3-4
Dutch - 3 ( 2.7/1 ) – 2 ( 3.1/1 ) – 1 ( 14/1 ) - $47.00 – $97.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
2.7 3.1 14.0 BET PRF
$7 $8 $30
$30 $27 $7 $64 $47 72%
$111 $111 $111

R#8 -1650M (8.25F) Turf..... 6-8 W/ 12-7-2-9
Results: 7-10-12-8
Dutch - 6 ( 3/1 ) – 8 ( 14/1 ) – 12 ( 4/1 ) - ($31.00) – $66.00

LOW MID HI TOT TOT PRF %
3.0 4.0 14.0 BET PRF
$8 $10 $30
$15 $12 $4 $31 $29 94%
$60 $60 $60
Again these were preliminary picks using every race on the card. I have to admit my actual final selections were even better. But this positive result no matter how many races are played can only become reality when there's obvious value in the chosen selections (Note Profit % potential in each race). Hitting these 5 out of 8 races (63%) produced a hypothetical profit of $66 after betting $310 or a 21% profit margin.

So yes, posting 5 or 6 selections per race can produce a positive ROI when played and observed properly.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I stand corrected...shows how little I know about wagering....Thanks Nitro....I see your points!

I'll take time to look at this 3 horse dutching method...1st time i have seen something like this, interesting :)

Do you know how he arrives at how much to wager on which ones?

[Nitro]

I stand corrected...shows how little I know about wagering....Thanks Nitro....I see your points!

I'll take time to look at this 3 horse dutching method...1st time i have seen something like this, interesting :)

Do you know how he arrives at how much to wager on which ones?
Hey! No problem. I wasn’t even aware of this result until I pulled out my Dutch calculator and went through them all myself. The objective of Dutching is to bet the entries selected with consideration of their odds so that no matter which one wins the profit margin is the same. The calculator I use allows me to simply input the odds of 2 or 3 entries and then displays what you see above.

I generally prefer quinellas and triples, but after reviewing this I realize that might have been missing out on some really good plays that are a lot less trouble structuring.

There's a link that I posted for this calculator on Post #6 of the following thread: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=132457&highlight=Dutching

[AltonKelsey]

You start dutching beyond two horse and you'd better be talking PRICE, as your net odds dwindle quickly with odds under 10-1.

The bet they offer where they break the field into three groups, is essentially a dutch on the horses within the group.