HONG KONG/ShaTin -SUN 9/18 LIVE

[Nitro]

Sha Tin
It looks like another value packed day at Sha Tin with BIG fields in ALL of the 10 races (2 on AWT & 8 on TURF)

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM AM EST

TVG is back in the game and offering live video.

If you can't view the races try listening on the HK Jockey Club radio: (Click on English) http://www.hkjc.com/english/press/live.asp#

Just so that there’s misunderstanding, I post my best selections for each race.
I’m not posting bets!
My top 2 selections are my Keys. They can be played individually or Dutched if the value is there. I will also use them as Keys in Quinellas, and Triples. Keying entries in exotics means that they have to at least be in the money with the other picks. I may not even be playing a race if it offers no value. Fortunately most races do.
I know it might be difficult for some to understand, but the winning results I post are the potential returns for those types of bets had they been made. I don’t make every bet and I certainly don’t play every race. I will try to indicate which race(s) look really appetizing.

Good luck if you’re playing & feel free to join in !

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[I]1) In case anyone is wondering how to structure a Quinella bet with 2 Key entries and 4 others (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ) do the following:
K1/K2, K1/A, K1/B, K1/C, K1/D & K2/A, K2/B, K2/C, K2/D =
(9) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

2) Because many of the Quinellas offer really good value it’s sometime even worthwhile (when the overall odds of the selected entries are reasonably high) to simply play all of the Quinella combinations for all 6 picks: A-B-C-D-E-F
A w/B-C-D-E-F…. B w/C-D-E-F….C w/D-E-F….D w/E-F…..E w/F =
(15) Bets ($2 denominations or higher).

Either of these same structures above can be used with the Quinella/Place bet which means:
1a) If either Key finishes 1st , 2nd , or 3rd and any of others finish in-the-money with them you can potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets or,
2a) If any of the (15) Quinellas chosen are used in the Quinella/Place bet you can also potentially win 1 or all 3 Q/P bets.

3) Structuring a Triple is a bit more expensive, but if the value is there then try the following with (K1-K2 W/ A-B-C-D ):
K1 / K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Winner
K2-A-B-C-D / K1 / K2-A-B-C-D = 20 Bets w/K1 as the Placer
K2-A-B-C-D / K2-A-B-C-D / K1 = 20 Bets w/K1 in for Show (use only if value is there)
If you repeat this structure with K2 for Win & Place with the others it’ll be 80 Bets, but there’s potential to hit the Triple 2X if both are in the money.

[Nitro]

It’s kind of an unusual card this morning with all of the Turf races being sprints. Races 4, 7, and 9 look very competitive.

Race #1 – 1650M – 8.25 F – All weather
Race #2 – 1200M – 6F – Turf
Race #3 - 1650M – 8.25 F – All weather
Race #4 – 1000M – 5F – Turf
Race #5 – 1400M – 7F – Turf
Race #6 – 1200M – 6F – Turf
Race #7 – 1000M – 5F – Turf
Race #8 – 1400M – 7F – Turf
Race #9 – 1000M – 5F – Turf
Race #10 - 1400M – 7F – Turf

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong for Sep. 17th at Sha Tin.
Weather report: 86 degrees partly cloudy with a 20% chance of rain wind: NNW 8mph.
Post time: 12.00am ET 9.00pm PT Rail: “C + 3” Course (usually favours speed), turf track listed: Good to Firm AWT (dirt): Good

Links to past performances:
http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20160918_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html
http://www.drf.com/hk

Vulnerable favourites:
Race 1 :5: Jimson The Famous (5-1) Yet to run in the money and gets an outside draw in a short run to the first turn.
Race 3 :13: Dragon Harmony (9-2) Draws the 13 post in a short run to the first turn.

Races with runners coming out of key races (multiple winners that have come back out of those races and won at or higher class than today's).
None

Horses off my watch list:
Race 6 :4: Iron Boy (4-1): Race 8 Tracked leader along the fence, loomed a strong threat 250M, held by winner in the run to the line, lost 2nd 50M and tightened for room concluding stages.
Race 6 :8: Raging Bull (26-1): Race 731* Fractious in gate, lifted leg at start and slow into stride, dropping to rear in one-off position. Well back entering straight and never threatened.

Longshots:
Race 1 :8: Mizzen Grey (15-1)
Race 5 :1: Mr Potentail (10-1)
Race 9 :2: Country Melody (17-1)
Race 10 :9: Run Forest (13-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning Woody! Thanks for your write-up.
Did you notice that our favorite jockey isn’t riding. We could be in for some nice returns!

I’m wondering if the recent big typhoon that hit southeast China had any effect on Hong Kong?

Just a reminder! Between 1:20 & 1:30AM the PA site goes down for maintenance. Sometimes it lasts 5 mins, but can go as long as 20. So hang in there and we'll just deal with it as usual. It should only impact the posting Race#2.

[kevb]

Hello HK 'cappers.

[Nitro]

Hello HK 'cappers.
Good morning Kev! Are you ready for some nice returns?

GL!

[woodbinepmi]

Yea, I saw that he got days. Always nice to have a break from him riding.

[Nitro]

I generally pass the AWT races, but this one looks value packed!
I’m a bit surprised that #2 isn’t much play. I’m also toying with the idea of adding #13 into my Q’s. It’s getting some unusual action.

R#1 – 7-4 W/ 8-10-1-3

[kevb]

R1:

I was liking the :2:-good races 4,5 and 6 back + 1 prep, but the wide post made me look elsewhere.

WP:6:
P:6:
Closer in a race without much pace, but some good races 2,3,5,6,7 back

[Nitro]

I generally pass the AWT races, but this one looks value packed!
I’m a bit surprised that #2 isn’t much play. I’m also toying with the idea of adding #13 into my Q’s. It’s getting some unusual action.

R#1 – 7-4 W/ 8-10-1-3
Results

R# 1 = 12-5-3-8 - Nothing in that one – So much for the AWT! I’m just glad that I didn’t get carried away!
Some late action on the LS Winner - 9.8/1 to 7.4/1

[woodbinepmi]

They are betting the first timer :4: off the board. Good for him he has drawn a weak Class 4 race for his debut.

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 4-5 W/ 8-2-5-10

[Nitro]

R# 2 - 4-5 W/ 8-2-5-10
Results

R# 2 = 4-10-6-1 - WIN – QUIN (The 8 Million$ horse wins its first outing)

$2.00 WIN – 4 - $3.10
$2.00 QUINELLA – 4-10 - $12.90 [/SIZE]

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 4-2 W/ 7-1-13-8

#9 getting pounded late :eek:

[Tee]

:2: :7: :12:

[Nitro]

:2: :7: :12:
Good morning Tee! What are you doing up so late?

GL

[Nitro]

R# 3 - 4-2 W/ 7-1-13-8

#9 getting pounded late :eek:
Results – Some bad racing in that one. The riderless horse #3 appeared to cause some interference. No worries for me I passed it.

R# 3 = 12-2-13-6 - Nothing in that one - No clues on that LS Winner
Definitely had the clear advantage.

[Nitro]

:2: :7: :12:
Nice call there Tee! Win & Quin with good value! :ThmbUp:

[Tee]

Good morning Tee! What are you doing up so late?

GL

I'm always up this late!! :)

[kevb]

R4:

:6:, like the favorite, he ran well in debut (same HK form energy number as the favorite) and then encountered a bit trouble next out. But look at the odds.

WP :6:

Jenny likes the :8:. Big trouble at 99-1 first out. OK, I'll bite.

Q :6: :8: / All

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 5-2 W/ 3-11-1-12

[Nitro]

R4:

:6:, like the favorite, he ran well in debut (same HK form energy number as the favorite) and then encountered a bit trouble next out. But look at the odds.

WP :6:

Jenny likes the :8:. Big trouble at 99-1 first out. OK, I'll bite.

Q :6: :8: / All
I think the favorite is #5 :eek:

Now its #2!

[Tee]

:9: :10: :11: together & sprinkled in with the shorter priced runners. :)

[kevb]

Yes, I meant too say that the #6 ran similar to the favorite #5 first out. Not well said.

[Tee]

Nice call there Tee! Win & Quin with good value! :ThmbUp:

Thanks Nitro!!

[kevb]

Not well bet either.

[Nitro]

R# 4 - 5-2 W/ 3-11-1-12
Results –

R# 4 = 14-12-11-10 - Nothing in that one - No action on that LS Winner
All the horses carrying the least weight did the running


The carry-over for the Triple Trio was only $28,000,000 HK dollars. That race result might cause another carry-over!

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 2-4 W/ 6-1-10-14

[Tee]

:2: / :11: :12:

[Nitro]

R# 5 - 2-4 W/ 6-1-10-14
Results –

R# 5 = 5-2-6-1 - Nothing in that one - Not much action on that LS Winner
Winner came out of the clouds!

[Nitro]

This one looks very good!

R# 6 - 4-2 W/ 10-5-7-9

[Tee]

:9:

[Nitro]

:9:
Certainly getting the late action!

[Nitro]

This one looks very good!

R# 6 - 4-2 W/ 10-5-7-9
Results – All of that one and big score to boot!

R# 6 = 2-4-5-10 - WIN – QUIN – TRI :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 2 - $4.10
$2.00 QUINELLA – 2-4 - $12.40
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 2-4-5 – $69.80

[Nitro]

A wide open race, but looks decent.

R# 7 - 10-7 W/ 8-1-14-11-13

[Tee]

:8: & :11:

[Nitro]

A wide open race, but looks decent.

R# 7 - 10-7 W/ 8-1-14-11-13
Results –

R# 7 = 7-10-2-5 - WIN & QUIN

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $5.90
$2.00 QUINELLA – 7-10 - $13.40

[Nitro]

Another wide open event – need a lot of combos here

R# 8 - 7-4 W/ 13-10-3-6-1

[Nitro]

Another wide open race - many combos

R# 9 - 14-7 W/ 3-1-2-9-12 .

[Nitro]

Another wide open event – need a lot of combos here

R# 8 - 7-4 W/ 13-10-3-6-1
Results – All of that one & great value with the favorite 4th

R# 8 = 7-10-3-4 - WIN – QUIN – TRI :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $9.80
$2.00 QUINELLA – 7-10 - $32.90
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-10-3 – $521.00

[Nitro]

Another wide open race - many combos

R# 9 - 14-7 W/ 3-1-2-9-12 .
Results – All of that one - from the Top 4

R# 9 = 7-14-1-3 - WIN – QUIN – TRI

$2.00 WIN – 7 - $5.70
$2.00 QUINELLA – 7-14 - $10.00
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 7-14-1 – $79.00

[Nitro]

R# 10 – 4-3 W/ 9-2-7-12

[kevb]

Well that was interesting. Pakistan Star.
A special horse in the Silky Sullivan mold.

[Nitro]

R# 10 – 4-3 W/ 9-2-7-12
Results – All of that one -

R# 10 = 4-3-7-12 - WIN – QUIN – TRI :ThmbUp:

$2.00 WIN – 4 - $3.40
$2.00 QUINELLA – 3-4 - $11.80
$2.00 TRIFECTA – 4-3-7 – $112.60

The last 5 races this morning turned out extremely well. It probably helped that the class of the horses in those races were much better than the first 5 races. Of course the tote analysis was also right on target considering the size of those fields.

This will probably be the last time I post my selections for Hong Kong on PA. When you’re playing in the wee hours of the morning there’s more potential to make errors, especially when you’re trying to place bets at the same time. Besides, there’s obviously not much interest by PA members. That’s unfortunate because as far as I’m concerned there’s racing and then there's RACING. Nothing like it anywhere. :ThmbUp:

[Hypnotist1]

Nitro we can post picks via messanger

[Nitro]

Nitro we can post picks via messanger
Hey Hypnotist1 thanks for your suggestion and interest, but I'll be content to just do HK on my own in the future. I made a couple of stupid errors in the early races on Sun morning that cost me. I really enjoy the racing there, but the early morning hours can be troublesome.

GL