Tepin Vulnerable today?

[ReplayRandall]

After looking at Today's Race-10, the GR-1 Woodbine Mile on the turf, I've come to the conclusion that Tepin is not 100% for the following reasons:

Her last race at Ascot- Gr-1 Queen Anne, took all that she had in the soft going, to grind out the win.

Since that race on June 14th, Mark Casse took her back to Saratoga, starting a series of workouts on July 22nd. Looked like the same pattern as 2015, with her running twice at the Spa on July 25 and August 29th, commencing with her BC win at Keeneland. However, this year, Casse just continued the works through the duration of the meet without ever racing at the Spa.

Tepin has never raced at Woodbine nor had a workout over the course. I've concluded that this race today will be a nice safe prep for the upcoming BC, she will not be firing all cylinders to win, if put to the task.

Who then will win? I will play the home-court advantage-
1 :1: Tower of Texas (ON) 20-1 E R Da Silva- R L Attfield

[horses4courses]

Tepin is unlikely to be fully cranked up for this.
The Ascot race was far from easy, she got some good rest,
and now it's time to get her ready for a repeat in the BC Mile.

Still, this is a very special mare.
Even at less than her best, she towers above this field.

If I had to play against her, though, only one horse appeals to me.
:2: Mutakayyef is a fit horse at the top of his game.
If he can get a decent pace to run at, he may be good enough.

At his M/L odds of 7-2, he might be worth a bet.
The gamble is whether Tepin is in need of this race.

[ReplayRandall]

Edit- Tepin is running in Woodbine Race # 12.....Please excuse my senior moment..:cool:

[letswastemoney]

On paper, there's no true speed lined up to challenge Tepin early. That's one concern about going against her.

[RunForTheRoses]

I bet against but I believe Tepin will be cranked up for this, Casse would love to win the race.

[cj]

The wet course isn't going to hurt her a bit.

[Robert Fischer]

I don't see any reason to say 'vulnerable'.

A case could be made for an 'underlay'.

I made a small double to the :2::3:.

[horses4courses]

Nice call on the place horse, RR :ThmbUp:

[ReplayRandall]

Nice call on the place horse, RR :ThmbUp:

Thanks, H4C...Looking for a home run, but managed just a single- Ex-$21.90

[Exotic1]

Thanks, H4C...Looking for a home run, but managed just a single- Ex-$21.90

A single that drove in alot of runs.

$21.90 as a minimum with huge amount of upside.

Very good call.

[ReplayRandall]

A single that drove in alot of runs.

$21.90 as a minimum with huge amount of upside.

Very good call.

Appreciate the props, EX1.....Here's the replay, in case anyone missed the race:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5so4jhpmC0

[NJ Stinks]

Nice handicapping, Randall!

A more competitive race would have been nice - after all it was $1M pot - but nothing Woodbine could do except drop show betting.

[CincyHorseplayer]

That was one of the dumber rides I have seen from a champion horse like Tepin. He waited so long he made the race waaay tooo close. I thought it was a flat out ignorant ride. She is at the top of her game and you wait....basically to let the competition to hang around and have a chance. This is the type of BS I have benefited from when Hernandez recognized it with Fort Larned and drew off on the turn in the BC. But these jocks wait. And if they don't have a superhorse they get beat. This was a dumb ride on a great horse. She should have won by a mile.

[cj]

That was one of the dumber rides I have seen from a champion horse like Tepin. He waited so long he made the race waaay tooo close. I thought it was a flat out ignorant ride. She is at the top of her game and you wait....basically to let the competition to hang around and have a chance. This is the type of BS I have benefited from when Hernandez recognized it with Fort Larned and drew off on the turn in the BC. But these jocks wait. And if they don't have a superhorse they get beat. This was a dumb ride on a great horse. She should have won by a mile.

You've got to be kidding, right?

[Saratoga_Mike]

That was one of the dumber rides I have seen from a champion horse like Tepin. He waited so long he made the race waaay tooo close. I thought it was a flat out ignorant ride. She is at the top of her game and you wait....basically to let the competition to hang around and have a chance. This is the type of BS I have benefited from when Hernandez recognized it with Fort Larned and drew off on the turn in the BC. But these jocks wait. And if they don't have a superhorse they get beat. This was a dumb ride on a great horse. She should have won by a mile.

Picture perfect ride - broke sharply, tucked in nicely, pace legit up front, doesn't move too quickly around the turn as to save as much ground as possible, shakes her up mid stretch and wins confidently. I'm not a JL fan, but that was a perfect ride.

[horses4courses]

Picture perfect ride - broke sharply, tucked in nicely, pace legit up front, doesn't move too quickly around the turn as to save as much ground as possible, shakes her up mid stretch and wins confidently. I'm not a JL fan, but that was a perfect ride.

Agreed.
There is no extra prize for winning by daylight.
The next race is the one that matters most.

[rsetup]

She was weaking late and all out to win. If Leparoux wasn't patient on the turn, she loses. The long stretch, and the wide trip, would've done her in. Then again, the runner up got a significantly better trip; and the show, while outside, also got a better trip.

[thespaah]

Saw nothing wrong with the ride.
Leparoux was "dragging the brakes" for the first half mile. he gradually let her out a notch, cleared then he set her down and won under a hand ride.
Yeah, Tepin had to hustle under the wire, but this race also served as a good workout as well.....

[thespaah]

Agreed.
There is no extra prize for winning by daylight.
The next race is the one that matters most.
"There is no extra prize for winning by daylight"...... :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Here's the thing. If a horse of this caliber wins by a dozen, then in the next race, everyone is gunning for that particular horse.
Countless times have we seen where riders will try to "get the big horse beat" in major races.
In my view if a horse such as Tepin isn't destroying its competition, the other riders in subsequent races will ride their own race trying to win instead of concerning themselves with the "big horse"....JMHO