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View Full Version : Belmont: Saturday, September 17


Teach
09-17-2016, 10:50 AM
Race One:

:5: Midnight Hawk, at least on paper, looks like the horse to beat. In fact, he looks prohibitive, but wait...why the lengthy layoff? Why the extreme class drop? (DRF calls it “suspicious). Is he worth betting at even-money, or less? If you’re betting exotics, doubles, etc., I would counsel you to consider “buying insurance”. David Jacobson – he owns and trains – claimed this 5 year-old grey from the Bob Baffert barn back in June. Jacobson does very well with first after claims and shippers. “Double-A,” Angel Arroyo, is in the irons. If this horse is ready, he romps. Yet, the question remains: Is he “ready”? Watch him on the track! Others: :1: , :4: , :6:

Race Two:

:1: Soglio has me frothing at the mouth like one of those Pavlovian dogs who just heard the bell. Don’t expect much “lucci”. In his last and only pari-mutuel start, this bred-for-the-turf Scat Daddy (Johannesburg) progeny drew outside on “The Inner”. That can be: “Il bacio della morte”. Well, to add to his woes this Seattle Slew-bred broke a step slow and was “parked out” six-wide; yet he managed a rousing stretch drive that saw him finish third, only a length off the winner. This 2 year-old colt now draws inside; that should go a long way to alleviating his “traffic” problems. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride for Graham Motion. Others: :2: , :7: , :6:

Race Three:

:1: Manhattan Mischief is my pick in this 20k claiming sprint. In his two races up at “The Spa,” this Harlan’s Holiday-bred gelding finished off the board in races that were taken off the turf. It should be noted that this 5 year-old has faced much better throughout his career. Today’s race puts him at his lowest level, at least in recent memory. This gelding meets a non-descript field that he’s most capable of handling. This Into Mischief-bred could very well be sitting on a stalking trip. The capable Pablo Fragoso – he’s returned to the NYRA circuit – has his feet in the stirrups for trainer Gary Sciacca. Others: :2: , :3: , :5:

Race Four:

“The British are coming! The British are coming!” Well, at least the British-bred. Yes, my pick in this OC route on The Widener is :3: Almanaar. Before you say “pazzo”… I know. I know this 4 year-old hasn’t raced in over a year. But look at whom you’re dealing with: “Mechanicsville Chad”. Chad Brown does exceptionally well with his foreign-born shippers. Oh, you can add Brown’s outstanding record with first-time starters. This Dubawi-bred ain’t no slouch. This chestnut has been competing in, and I might add, winning Grade III events “Across the Pond”. And, he gets Lasix. This all adds up to a gelding who’s "a contendah," not a Palooka. Others: :2: , :5: , :1:

Race Five:

:3: Dupree lost his footing at the start of his only pari-mutuel race. In that one, he would move up into contention only to weaken and fade in the final furlongs. If this Posse-bred colt’s gate issue has been resolved, he should be a major player in this MSW sprint. Trainer Ron Moquett has gotten off to an excellent start at Belmont. Moquett does well with horses entered in their second career race. A sharp recent work appears to signal that this colt is ready for his return to the races. Jose Lezcano has the call. Others: :6: , :1: , :4:

Race Six:

:8: Dr. Edgar is my longshot try in this 6-furlongs claiming sprint n2L on The Inner. Once upon a morning dreary, I pondered this field, weak and weary…(EAP). Well, the long and the short of it is…I’m still perplexed. Betwixt and Between. I’ve made a case for and against each of the horses entered in this race and I’ve decided to give the edge to the horse cited above. Why? He’s won at this level, at this distance, on this track, with the same rider, Aaron Gryder. That was back in mid-June. In the interim, he finished fourth despite being bumped at the break at “The Spa” in early August. The capable Carl Domino trains this grandson of Smart Strike. Others: :4: , :3: , :9:

Race Seven:

:3: Mr. Harlan gets my tepid nod in this state-bred turf route, n1x. This Harlan’s Holiday-bred just missed against weaker in his last. This 4 year-old bay colt had been sprinting until recently. His new trainer, Linda Rice, thinks he might do better routing…and she may be right. This Harlan-bred, as cited, did quite well in his most recent route race. Yet there are concerns. This colt has only won once in 18 tries. In addition, there are no published works since this Gold Fever-bred’s last start about one month ago. Yet, this colt’s apparent liking for an added distance of ground may auger well for his chances in this race. Others: :8: , :1: , :4:

Race Eight:

:9: Get Jets is my pick in this 7-panels sprint on the main for New York state-breds. This Scat Daddy-bred chestnut colt has been on the shelf since he was last seen perambulating at Arkansas’s Oaklawn Park in mid-February. Ordinarily, I’d be quite concerned about the lengthy layoff, but a recent morning “bullet” work, five panels in 1:00.2, breezing, bolsters my confidence level in this 3 year-old. Trainer Tony Dutrow does very well in most racing categories. Yet, the big question that needs to be answered is: Does this colt need one, or not? That will be determined on the racetrack. I would counsel watching him on the track. One thing is for sure, this highly-priced Dixieland Band-bred has faced better in the past. Oh, don’t expect much in return; he’ll likely go “chalk”. Others: :8: , :2: , :1:

Race Nine:

In the Grade II Sands Point (I know it well having taught just south of there in nearby Manhasset) I’m going with a medium-longshot. Begorrah! It’s the Irish-bred, :1: Galileo’s Song. Yes, there are horses for courses…and horses for tracks. This Sadler’s Wells-bred has had two firsts and a second on the Belmont oval…in three tries! There’s that name, again: Chad Brown. Brown does extremely well both with horses who’ve been on the shelf and who are making a turf start. Jose Lezcano is in the irons. Lezcano has a knack of winning these turf stakes races. Others: :5: , :6: , :7:

Race Ten:

In the finale, I’m going with a morning-line medium longshot, :9: Captain Kitt. This Kitten’s Joy-bred 4 year-old chestnut colt has a solid turf pedigree, especially on the top side. One thing is for sure, he should be coming on in the stretch. Can he get there in time? Only time will tell. Oh, another thing. This colt can handle the distance; frankly, I’m not so sure about some of the others. This colt’s hit the board in both his turf route tries. John Hertler has gotten off to a slow start, but he’s a most capable trainer who’s certainly capable of conditioning a winner, here. I guess my only major concern is the fact that’s this colt is starting from the extreme outside post. Yet, Jose Lezcano is an aggressive rider who’s capable of guiding this colt into a striking position. Others: :7: , :5: , :4:

Teach
09-17-2016, 01:58 PM
I'm not an alarmist, but I personally sensed that :1: Soglio looked a bit "washed out" in the post parade. I tempted to "buy insurance". :2: looked very good coming out on to the racetrack.