Thursday Belmont R7

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Much like Robert Fischer's post for today's 6th at Belmont, lets do the same for the 7th tomorrow.

This is a key race in the late P4 or P3 any way you want to break it down. And in either sequence, these late horizontal plays may well pay a handsome treat to those able to take it down as the last 4 races are full with contentious fields of possibly/likely 12, 11, 12, and 9 respectively.

R7 Belmont: 1 1/8th Inner Turf 3andUp Allow $62Kn1x State Breds

:1: Ordinaire: Interesting 3YO that may have found his niche of getting on the lead and wiring the field. Big question here has to be distance, and while he gets a 1/16th back from his last start, will it be enough? ML favorite has to be greatly considered as a wire-to-wire job.

:2: Kid Friendly: Yes, he won as a FTS at Saratoga, but that was taken off the turf and ran in a pedestrian near 1:55 over 9 panels:sleeping:. He did beat 7 others at 1st offering so I can't completely dismiss, especially with LDK breeding, but this looks to be an awfully tough race for him to get it done at 2nd offering.

:3: Dearie: Not real sure what they are doing with this one as they have been placing him in tough spots since breaking his Maiden 5 races ago. Don't see this as soft enough for him to take a needed step forward. Distance is also a huge question mark, so questions abound with regards to intentions for this one. Fitness? Or taking a shot that he needs more distance?

:4: Come Around: Having a really tough time reading this one. Breaks his Maiden on an off track taken off the turf last out at Saratoga in MSW company, but they obviously believe this is a turfer. Since leaving the Motion barn, this one has lit up a bit by getting more into the race early. Has Come Around actually come around?

:5: Holy Week: 1 for 24 lifetime. Took 23 tries to break his Maiden. Torres is an interesting bug jock right now, but this one just seems up against it in here.

:6: Rooftop View: Saez is getting hot in the irons, and gets a colt that has faced as good or better than this field and fared well. Beat by a nose 2 back in the $100K NY Stallion followed by a 2nd against similar last out. Belmont record not bad considering the competition, nor the turf record.

:7: Sonnyandpally: 3 for 42 lifetimer rolls in off of 2 claiming races at Suffolk. Gotta respect Englehart, but that looks like an attempt to either get a win for this guy, or get it out of the barn. Likely both.

:8: Chang's Secret: Lost to the :7: last out at Suffolk, and does his best running on the front end in which he won't be on the front end unless he simply works too hard to get 9 panels.

:9: Fulmer: This Kitten's Joy colt has been solidly placed with some solid expectations. Biggest problem has been his inability to finish races, and he has been handled rather easily by some in here with him today. Connections and breeding are tough, but the ML of 6/1 is just too short for me if I'm playing to W.

:10: Ode to the Hunt: The 2 outside posts get Castellano and Johnny V. No way in hades this one goes off at 12/1 with Violette and Javier along with the recent class and form this one has shown. Could sit an ideal trip from a not so great post.

:11: Prophet's Cat: However you want to look at it, the upgrade in jockey is substantial (at least for some :)). The 3 for 40 record may be tough to look past however, including a rather dismal Belmont record and 0fer turf record. On the good side, he has ran good enough races to beat this field.

Looking to probably play the late P3, and the :6: is a possible single to start it off. R8 is tougher than this one, and R9 is a possible single, but wide open outside of that.

Alright, tell me where I'm wrong. :D

[Alwaysonpoint36]

hey ldh....good analysis

:10: ode to the hunt
:5: holy week

[Ocala Mike]

Off the Nicks claim, I'll be using a lot of KID FRIENDLY, #2.

[johnhannibalsmith]

Good race, there really aren't any true throwouts or standouts in my opinion. It looks like a race where the pace, flow, and trip mean pretty much everything because there isn't a ton of talent disparity from runner to runner.

I'd be a little surprised if Ordinaire gets to coast on the lead. I mean, he might be on the lead, but I don't think that it will be by default. I think that Come Around and Chang's Secret can both conceivably decide to make a play for the lead and others such as Holy Week and Sonnyandpally have more speed than they usually show and if nothing else provide a little insurance that someone will insist upon keeping Ordinaire from walking away if the former duo decide to be stupid or get away poorly.

Just trying to read tea leaves and predict who is going to offer the kind of value against a line that works for a win pick, I'm kind of liking the outside horses. I agree with LDH that Ode To The Hunt is probably not going to hit the 12-1 M/L, which is why I didn't just gravitate to him alone. That and the fact that he's developing the look of a loser. Has position, gets a good trip, runs well, just doesn't win. Too early to hold it against him completely, but showing some signs of a clunk-up for a check hero. Still, he's run well here and with the chance for a group up front to be looking for a spot to lay down in the lane, he looks pretty live and at something resembling double-digits its hard to dislike him as a play.

Prophet's Cat might as well be a half-brother to Ode To The Hunt since I like and dislike almost the same things about both. The one plus, or what I think might be a plus, for the Cat is that he seems to have a little better early speed if he wants to use it for position from out there. He seems a little more versatile. Then again, he's had a lot more opportunities to develop versatility. Twenty-three of them on turf. NONE of which has resulted in a win. So yeah, that's the big negative. He's also got that loser profile going on these days, but he's also probably going to be around double-digits.

Most of the others in here that I like as much or maybe even more than these two figure to be much lower prices. Maybe one of them swells up and that's where the value is, but I think that these two out here are the ones that are most likely to give me the double-digit price at a slightly lower than double-digit chance at winning.

[bello]

For me, since we are dealing with experienced horses, I put a script in my head and I hope it is followed. This is where my harness racing handicapping comes into play, where trips can make or break you.

Cliff notes version of the script. #8 Changs Secret is the lone speed. I would be all over him if this was a cheaper race.....and he is still likely to be around at the end

#1 Ordinaire...should not go to the lead today but should take the proverbial perfect pocket trip behind the 8....Don't even get lapped onto to him intil the lane or the far turn and take him down the lane

#6 Rooftop View ...will really be hampered by the slow pace but if the 1 and 8 actually whack it out too early. he is the likely winner otherwise second or third

#8 Chang Dynasty....Is too gutless to win IMO but is a dangerous contented to be in the money
as is
#10 Ode to the Hunt...Violette is straky and may have been preparing more for this meet but this guy is a plodder and would really need a fast pace to win

Using 1 and 6 in the horizontal and 1 and 6 in verticals over the 8 and 10.

Now if they would only FOLLOW THE SCRIPT!

[TheOracle]

This one is tough but would have to give the slight edge to R A Violette Jr he and Castellano have hooked up twice already with #11 Ode To The Hunt with a place and a show finish!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/raviolalwbel.jpg

Let's see if these 2 can get the win today or at the very least hit the board!!!

[Racetrack Playa]

:3: Dearie
:2::4::10:

[whodoyoulike]

I like :11: prophet's cat last 3 races were in good time for each distance and looks to be in good form.

And, an exacta box with :11: and :6: rooftop view which I can see closing fast.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Chalk aside, that was one of the most boring races I've seen in some time.