Top Horse Analytics: 09/14/2016 BEL Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: BEL, GP
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU, CD, DMR, GPW, KEE, OP, SA, SAR, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.08.19a)

Race Cancellations (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)
Full Charts (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (THA) (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/14/16, BEL, Race 1, 1.30 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3) - Pick 5 (.50) Races (1-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Natalie Victoria [8/5] Torres J / Toscano. Jr. John T. TFL
097.6038 :3: Langfirst [4-1] Cancel E / Contessa Gary C. SEWC
094.5821 :1: Silver Silence [15-1] Esquivel E / D'Alessandro Ralph J
090.5550 :2: Youreadaisyifyado(b-) [30-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Metivier Richard
*Scratch* 6 Spa Town Parade [12-1] Arrieta F / Jones Eduardo E.
*Scratch* 4 Can Can Babe [7/5] Castellano J / Jacobson David

09/14/16, BEL, Race 2, 2.01 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Barbie Stones [8/5] Gryder A T / Levine Bruce N. SFE
097.8755 :8: Show River [3-1] Saez L / Schettino Dominick JC
096.2391 :4: Goldies Luckycharm(b+) [8-1] Cancel E / Ferraro James W.
094.1643 :2: Not Amused [20-1] Arrieta F / Feron Kathleen M.
092.8672 7 Brooklyn Gal [6-1] Franco M / Sciacca Gary W
091.6023 9 Shineady [12-1] Fragoso P / Friedman Mitchell E. T
091.0042 6 Persky's Spirit(b-) [20-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Ortiz Juan L
090.5242 3 Surreal Dream [30-1] Arroyo A S / Alvarez Luis C.
081.4841 1 Quasney's Angel [6-1] Alvarado J / Schettino Dominick

09/14/16, BEL, Race 3, 2.32 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Hot Dudette [8/5] Arroyo A S / Adsit Abigail C. SEWL
097.5928 :2: Ducasa [2-1] Saez L / Asmussen Steven M. JT
095.6617 :4: Warriors Diva [4-1] Lezcano J / Sciacca Gary F
092.6377 :5: Sweetneida [8-1] Torres J / Jones Eduardo E.
092.4999 3 Lil Renegade [12-1] Fragoso P / Friedman Mitchell E. C
091.1732 6 Over My Head [20-1] Camacho. Jr. S / Morrison John
*Scratch* 7 Jazz Band Joe [20-1] Cancel E / Lostritto Joseph A.

09/14/16, BEL, Race 4, 3.04 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $77,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6) - Pick 6 Races (4-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Texting [3-1] Velazquez J R / Brown Chad C. FWC
097.9290 :6: (F)Chicadoro (GB) [2-1] Ortiz J L / Clement Christophe J
096.3737 :5: (F)Earring [9/5] Lezcano J / Proctor Thomas F.
096.1852 :3: Sherini [6-1] Rosario J / Motion H. Graham EL
093.6761 4 Morethanawarning [12-1] Saez L / Quick Patrick J. S
090.5573 1 Runaway Scarlett [30-1] Torres J / Ibrahim Emron T
*Scratch* 7 Wembley [5/2] Rider TBA / McLaughlin Kiaran P.

09/14/16, BEL, Race 5, 3.36 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7) - Grand Slam Races (5-8), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :2: Show Giant [8-1] Castellano J / Contessa Gary C. FL
097.9688 :1: Imflatoutsweet [8/5] Ortiz J L / Clement Christophe JT
097.0611 :8: Wantagh Queen [5-1] Arroyo A S / Barker Edward R. E
095.9395 :6: Ellenvelyn (GB) [7/2] Franco M / Bush Thomas M.
092.7305 7 Rio Vista [6-1] Saez L / Weaver George SW
090.5850 3 Laura's Patriot [10-1] Torres J / Toscano. Jr. John T. C
090.1466 4 Pira [12-1] Lezcano J / Bond H. James
082.1858 5 Porvoo [30-1] Davis J A / Jones Eduardo E.

09/14/16, BEL, Race 6, 4.09 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Danebury [7/2] Velazquez J R / Kenneally Eddie FE
098.7033 :7: J. J. Jake [2-1] Carmouche K / Martin Carlos F. SL
098.5168 :8: James Lane [3-1] Lezcano J / McLaughlin Kiaran P. TWC
092.5304 :5: Agronomy [6-1] Castellano J / Sadler John W.
090.3943 4 Adirondack Dream(b+) [30-1] Luzzi M J / DiSanto Glenn B.
080.8516 3 Ryder Road [8-1] Saez L / Violette. Jr. Richard
080.8285 1 Altesino [10-1] Ortiz J L / Bond H. James J
080.7975 2 The Orphan Miracle [15-1] Franco M / Donk David G.

09/14/16, BEL, Race 7, 4.41 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :11: Feisty Valentina (IRE) [10-1] Lezcano J / Nevin Michelle FE
097.9300 :9: Sunset Knoll (IRE) [3-1] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny TW
096.4438 :3: Going Bold [12-1] Davis D / Hills Timothy A. C
095.7616 :5: Saratoga Smoke [6-1] Ortiz J L / Bond H. James JL
095.2063 7 Forever for Always [12-1] Alvarado J / Antonucci Jena M.
093.8931 8 Voila La Victoire (IRE) [5-1] Franco M / Albertrani Thomas
089.6189 4 Lady Bling [7/2] Velazquez J R / Donk David G. S
089.2718 1 Hold Me Down [8-1] Saez L / Ronen Assaf
087.0770 6 Life's a Stage [20-1] Cancel E / Lostritto Joseph A.
085.8368 10 Light Years Away [20-1] Torres J / Kelly Patrick J.
*Scratch* 2 Flick of an Eye [4/5] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny

09/14/16, BEL, Race 8, 5.13 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Lulu's Blues [3-1] Castellano J / Clement Christophe
097.9923 :5: Askfor Forgiveness [12-1] Velazquez J R / Wilkes Ian R. EC
097.2985 :1: Buffalo Miss [5-1] Cancel E / Terranova. II John P. FL
096.1423 :6: Barrier to Entry [8-1] Lezcano J / Rice Linda
095.6492 11 Same Kinda Crazy [10-1] Carmouche K / Brown Bruce R.
094.4192 8 Translator [15-1] Davis D / Ryerson James T.
094.1835 7 I Hope You Dance [6-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda J
093.6644 2 Jersey's Kittens [4-1] Serpa A / Samaniego Jose I. W
093.5284 13 Krista's Persona [8-1] Franco M / Klesaris Steve S
092.7793 4 Esther the Queen [12-1] Rosario J / Esler Nicholas
090.3348 12 Celestial Sighting [15-1] Alvarado J / Rodriguez Rudy R.
085.3542 9 Lakeview Lady [30-1] Torres J / Hertler John O.
*Scratch* 15 Saluda [2-1] Gryder A T / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 14 Unrepented [5/2] Rider TBA / Englehart Chris J.
*Scratch* 10 Given Fire [20-1] Arrieta F / Rawles Alcina

09/14/16, BEL, Race 9, 5.45 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Gee Pea Ess [6-1] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda JL
099.9096 :1: Tracking Stock [4-1] Castellano J / Brown Chad C. C
099.8292 :5: Virga [7/2] Franco M / Weaver George SW
097.6109 :10: Onlytheshadowknows [3-1] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny FE
097.0783 11 Warm Springs [15-1] Rivera E / Reid. Jr. Robert E.
096.9930 1a Contraction [4-1] Lezcano J / Rice Linda
095.8362 2 Just the Zip [12-1] Rosario J / Contessa Gary C.
093.7665 6 Bermuda Triangle(b+) [15-1] Saez L / Sharp Joe
093.1750 9 Fried Baloney(b+) [20-1] Davis D / Zito Nicholas P.
093.0956 4 Learn to Bern [20-1] Gryder A T / Domino Carl J.
*Scratch* 8 Madeyourpoint [20-1] Cancel E / Adsit Abigail C.
*Scratch* 7 Azarel [15-1] Arroyo A S / Cannizzo David A.
*Scratch* 3 Cornedbeefncabbage [12-1] Alvarado J / Ryerson James T.
*Scratch* 13 Art Boss [7/2] Franco M / Cannizzo David A.

[Augenj]

END OF PICKS

RESULTS FOLLOW

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.08.19a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at BEL is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

09/14/16, BEL, Race 1, 1:30 ET
1M [Dirt] 1.32.01 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :5: Natalie Victoria [8/5 * ] TFL 2nd - 2.40 x.xx Jomar?
097.6038 :3: Langfirst [4-1] SEWC 1st - 6.10 2.70 x.xx
094.5821 :1: Silver Silence [15-1] J 4th
090.5550 :2: Youreadaisyifyado(b-) [30-1] 3rd - x.xx
*Scratch* 6 Spa Town Parade [12-1]
*Scratch* 4 Can Can Babe [7/5]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 2, 2:01 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $32,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :5: Barbie Stones [8/5 * ] SFE 2nd - 2.80 2.30
097.8755 :8: Show River [3-1] JC
096.2391 :4: Goldies Luckycharm(b+) [8-1] *SCR*
094.1643 :2: Not Amused [20-1] 4th
092.8672 7 Brooklyn Gal [6-1] W
091.6023 9 Shineady [12-1] T 3rd - 6.60
091.0042 6 Persky's Spirit(b-) [20-1] L
090.5242 3 Surreal Dream [30-1]
081.4841 1 Quasney's Angel [6-1] 1st - 17.40 5.50 5.00

09/14/16, BEL, Race 3, 2:32 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.14.02 CLAIMING. Purse $26,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :1: Hot Dudette [8/5] SEWL 4th
097.5928 :2: Ducasa [2-1 * ] JT 1st - 6.20 3.60 2.70
095.6617 :4: Warriors Diva [4-1] F 3rd - 3.00
092.6377 :5: Sweetneida [8-1]
092.4999 3 Lil Renegade [12-1] C 2nd - 9.60 4.50
091.1732 6 Over My Head [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Jazz Band Joe [20-1]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 4, 3:04 ET
1 1/4M [Inner Turf] 1.57.04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $77,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :2: Texting [3-1 * ] FWC 1st - 5.10 2.80 2.20
097.9290 :6: (F)Chicadoro (GB) [2-1] J
096.3737 :5: (F)Earring [9/5] 2nd - 3.20 2.40
096.1852 :3: Sherini [6-1] EL
093.6761 4 Morethanawarning [12-1] S 3rd - 2.90
090.5573 1 Runaway Scarlett [30-1] T 4th
*Scratch* 7 Wembley [5/2]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 5, 3:36 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 CLAIMING. Purse $34,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :2: Show Giant [8-1] FL led, 7th
097.9688 :1: Imflatoutsweet [8/5 * ] JT 4th
097.0611 :8: Wantagh Queen [5-1] E 3rd - 3.70
095.9395 :6: Ellenvelyn (GB) [7/2] 1st - 8.90 4.80 3.00
092.7305 7 Rio Vista [6-1] SW
090.5850 3 Laura's Patriot [10-1] C 2nd - 11.60 6.70
090.1466 4 Pira [12-1]
082.1858 5 Porvoo [30-1]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 6, 4:09 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.07.03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $60,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :6: Danebury [7/2] FE 4th squeezed back at start
098.7033 :7: J. J. Jake [2-1 * ] SL 3rd - 2.50
098.5168 :8: James Lane [3-1] TWC 2nd - 4.50 2.70
092.5304 :5: Agronomy [6-1]
090.3943 4 Adirondack Dream(b+) [30-1]
080.8516 3 Ryder Road [8-1] 1st - 12.40 7.90 3.80
080.8285 1 Altesino [10-1] J
080.7975 2 The Orphan Miracle [15-1]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 7, 4:41 ET
1M [Turf] 1.31.03 CLAIMING. Purse $38,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :11: Feisty Valentina (IRE) [10-1] FE last all the way
097.9300 :9: Sunset Knoll (IRE) [3-1 * ] TW 3rd - 3.00
096.4438 :3: Going Bold [12-1] C
095.7616 :5: Saratoga Smoke [6-1] JL 4th
095.2063 7 Forever for Always [12-1]
093.8931 8 Voila La Victoire (IRE) [5-1]
089.6189 4 Lady Bling [7/2] S 1st - 14.20 6.30 3.80
089.2718 1 Hold Me Down [8-1] 2nd - 4.90 4.30
087.0770 6 Life's a Stage [20-1] *SCR*
085.8368 10 Light Years Away [20-1]
*Scratch* 2 Flick of an Eye [4/5]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 8, 5:13 ET
6F [Inner Turf] 1.06.04 ALLOWANCE. Purse $62,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :3: Lulu's Blues [3-1 * ] 4th to 5th
097.9923 :5: Askfor Forgiveness [12-1] EC
097.2985 :1: Buffalo Miss [5-1] FL 3rd - 6.40
096.1423 :6: Barrier to Entry [8-1] 1st - 12.20 6.50 5.20
095.6492 11 Same Kinda Crazy [10-1]
094.4192 8 Translator [15-1]
094.1835 7 I Hope You Dance [6-1] J
093.6644 2 Jersey's Kittens [4-1] W 4th
093.5284 13 Krista's Persona [8-1] S
092.7793 4 Esther the Queen [12-1] 2nd - 6.20 5.20
090.3348 12 Celestial Sighting [15-1]
085.3542 9 Lakeview Lady [30-1]
*Scratch* 15 Saluda [2-1]
*Scratch* 14 Unrepented [5/2]
*Scratch* 10 Given Fire [20-1]

09/14/16, BEL, Race 9, 5:45 ET
6F [Turf] 1.06.04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $41,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :12: Gee Pea Ess [6-1] JL 2nd to 6th
099.9096 :1: Tracking Stock [4-1] C 2nd - 3.60 2.50
099.8292 :5: Virga [7/2 * ] SW 1st - 4.90 2.90 2.30
097.6109 :10: Onlytheshadowknows [3-1] FE
097.0783 11 Warm Springs [15-1] 3rd - 5.80
096.9930 1a Contraction [4-1] 4th
095.8362 2 Just the Zip [12-1]
093.7665 6 Bermuda Triangle(b+) [15-1] *SCR*
093.1750 9 Fried Baloney(b+) [20-1]
093.0956 4 Learn to Bern [20-1]
*Scratch* 8 Madeyourpoint [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Azarel [15-1]
*Scratch* 3 Cornedbeefncabbage [12-1]
*Scratch* 13 Art Boss [7/2]

[Augenj]

END OF RESULTS

[ReplayRandall]

100.0000 :5: Natalie Victoria [8/5 * ] TFL 2nd - 2.40 x.xx Jomar?

Too bad for Jomar....Had all the confidence going into the Saratoga meet, and simply got destroyed. It might take a while before he gets his mojo back, if at all....

[Augenj]

100.0000 :5: Natalie Victoria [8/5 * ] TFL 2nd - 2.40 x.xx Jomar?

Too bad for Jomar....Had all the confidence going into the Saratoga meet, and simply got destroyed. It might take a while before he gets his mojo back, if at all....
He got caught up in a speed duel like a lot of them do and set it up for the winner. It happens every day and I get frustrated every day. ;)