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Robert Fischer
09-13-2016, 11:22 PM
for whatever reason, this is the race that jumped off the page for me when browsing the card.


I'll try to post some handicapping insights. I have no idea if I will find value or not.

Would love to see you guys join in this thread and comment about the Sixth Race.

Not a moderator, but let's try to be respectful of each other, whether we agree or disagree with opinions, methods, etc...

thanks


http://www.trks2day.com/wedday.html (bris PPs)

ReplayRandall
09-13-2016, 11:46 PM
I keep it short and to the point:

Belmont Park #6 -4:09 PM- :5: Agronomy (NY) 6-1 J Castellano- J W Sadler

Robert Fischer
09-13-2016, 11:46 PM
First thing that I notice is the :1: Altesino

10/1

Jose Ortiz?

Bond+J.Ortiz

Bond ROI MSW and FTS


Maybe the 1 is decent horse? a few factors pointing in the right direction.

Robert Fischer
09-13-2016, 11:49 PM
I keep it short and to the point:

Belmont Park #6 -4:09 PM- :5: Agronomy (NY) 6-1 J Castellano- J W Sadler

interesting horse at a big ML

what attracts you to this one?

Robert Fischer
09-13-2016, 11:56 PM
:3: Ryder Road

Should be fit.

Nice work tab. Violette

ReplayRandall
09-13-2016, 11:58 PM
interesting horse at a big ML

what attracts you to this one?

Sadler running this NY bred on the west coast against much tougher in open company MDN and Mdcl's. Ships the horse to run against weaker NY state bred MDN's, with small lay-off of only 56 days. Seen this move from Sadler before, won't get 6-1, might go off 7-2 at best because of Javier in saddle.

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 12:08 AM
:6: Danebury is a horse I want to guess against.

His Debut looks good on paper, and his run was pretty strong.
I don't like that he was a touch slow to change leads, and then drifted out so much.
I don't like that the race was that speed favoring.
I don't like that the race was 10 months ago.

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 12:29 AM
:7: J. J. Jake was bet in his debut last time, and the ML was fairly high = so players likely knew that this was a good horse.
He got the tougher setup than the 8 James Lane.

Has to be respected as a contender. Is he deserving of heavy favoritism here? I don't think so.

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 12:47 AM
:8: James Lane

I like this horse. He's my key horse in this race.

Last race certainly doesn't add any value, as he finished ahead of the 7 while getting a better trip... :bang:

The race 2 back(7/28) I think was a little better than it looks on paper. Born For a Storm is way better than these, but even he had to settle for 2nd in that race. James Lane made a decent move vs the grain.

Horse seems pretty consistent, and maybe even improving form. Probably no 'Born for a Storms' in here.


These horses just may not be that great, and the :8: looks like he should be passing horses.

VigorsTheGrey
09-14-2016, 01:18 AM
I don't see any edge in here...too many FTS's and the :5: is stepping up in class although facing state breds NYer's...

whodoyoulike
09-14-2016, 01:39 AM
Why Mdn race?

But, I'll go for :6: Danebury ran a decent 7f as a 2yo. Works looks regular and decent since July. Anyone know why he's been off 9 months?

And, :8: James Lane improved last race compared to two back both at 6.5f. Like owner, trainer, jockey and sire.

Since a mdn race would like at least 3/1 on either pick.

no breathalyzer
09-14-2016, 08:42 AM
good points here.. :5: is stepping up in class .... i also think the :8: 's race 2 back is better then it looks on paper.... The :1: :2: :4: are auto tosses for me . The first thing that my eye caught was the :3: like stated should be fit and i always pay attention to Violette first time starters.. as for the :6: i will have to go back and watch the replay .. the winner of that race has not lifted a leg in 2 races since .. and overall i'm thinking class of that race was weak.

no breathalyzer
09-14-2016, 08:52 AM
thinking 5 blasts out to the lead and the :7: sits rite off and the :8: comes over the top.. if the :3: is a real runner :3: runs them all off their feet no breathalyzer style or :7: takes back and the :5: gets a clear lead and the :3: is a rat.. pretty much the key of the race is what the :7: decides to do in my opinion

Lemon Drop Husker
09-14-2016, 09:23 AM
The 2 works out of the :5: at Del Mar, and prior to shipping really stick out. 3Fs in :33 and 2 :eek:. Is that real?

:5::6::7::8: are the logicals in here. I'd likely pass, or maybe throw a Place/Show bet at the :2: if he is 30/1 or more and looks decent in the post parade, which I'm sure he won't.:D

bello
09-14-2016, 10:07 AM
Four contenders are the 4 outside horses. Inside bunch out? looks cheaper

#8 James Lane....excuses galore. Outside post and Belmont turn should help Jose get a clean trip

#5 Agronomy...This is not the strongest NYB field and I would agree with RR this is not a step up

#7 JJ Jake.....bet to 5-2 in debut and was wide around the turn. Will benefit from that race

#6 Danbury ...obvious contender on paper but why 10 months off after a good debut?

TheOracle
09-14-2016, 11:40 AM
Comparatively speaking for the 6th race, when I bring up Trainers on today's Belmont card with positive win place and show returns in Maiden races on the Dirt since opening day in April, the stand out is R A Violette Jr.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/alltrnrstdybelmdsdrt.jpg

It's either feast or famine with him as his horses have won 5 of their last 10 in this situation. I will have to give #3 Ryder Road some consideration.

C F Martin's horses are giving decent returns to win place and show at 39% in this situation as well.

However, the person that is not on this list is D G Donk. His overall return with Maidens on the Dirt at Belmont since April is negative but his show prices are giving you a 41% return per $2 show wager.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/dgdonkmdnsdrtbel.jpg

So #2 The Orphan Miracle might not win but could pay a decent price to show if it hits the board today!!!

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 12:09 PM
:3: should be a good value, TheOracle

upthecreek
09-14-2016, 12:19 PM
Exacta key for me
:8: / :6: & :7:

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 01:20 PM
I think the race sets up for the solid, improving :8: JAMES LANE.

I think the :1: and :3: add some interesting First Time Starter value.

I think the race is fairly wide open
(The :7: looks best if you are playing by the rules,
but I'm not 'sold' on the :7: ).
:5: is a 'wildcard'. :6: is a 'wildcard'.



$5 W/P/S :8: =$15

$1 EX :7::8: / :1::3: =$4

.50 Tris

:8: / :1::3::5::6::7: / :1::3::5::6::7: =$10

:1::3::5::6::7: / :8: / :1::3::5::6::7: =$10

:1::3::5::6::7: / :1::3::5::6::7: / :8: =$10

TIP FOR THE TELLER =$1

TOTAL = http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040928/040928_newfifty_hmed_7a.grid-6x2.jpg

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 02:38 PM
Why Mdn race?

But, I'll go for :6: Danebury ran a decent 7f as a 2yo. Works looks regular and decent since July. Anyone know why he's been off 9 months?

And, :8: James Lane improved last race compared to two back both at 6.5f. Like owner, trainer, jockey and sire.

Since a mdn race would like at least 3/1 on either pick.

because some of these MSWs are Fun to guess along with! :D

The 2 works out of the :5: at Del Mar, and prior to shipping really stick out. 3Fs in :33 and 2 :eek:. Is that real?

:5::6::7::8: are the logicals in here. I'd likely pass, or maybe throw a Place/Show bet at the :2: if he is 30/1 or more and looks decent in the post parade, which I'm sure he won't.:D
:5: could be tough. You, Replay Randall, and Bello all note some positives.
The replay from the 5's last race was a bit of a turnoff. Wrong lead, wasn't comfortable. The only positive was that the winner was off lead as well.
2-back the 5 was on the proper lead.
If the 5 runs his A-race w/ proper footwork, he contends or at least affects the race.


thinking 5 blasts out to the lead and the :7: sits rite off and the :8: comes over the top.. if the :3: is a real runner :3: runs them all off their feet no breathalyzer style or :7: takes back and the :5: gets a clear lead and the :3: is a rat.. pretty much the key of the race is what the :7: decides to do in my opinion

I gotta think they put the 7 right into the race. I agree that the 5 and the 3 will also likely be on the pace...

Four contenders are the 4 outside horses. Inside bunch out? looks cheaper

#8 James Lane....excuses galore. Outside post and Belmont turn should help Jose get a clean trip

#5 Agronomy...This is not the strongest NYB field and I would agree with RR this is not a step up

#7 JJ Jake.....bet to 5-2 in debut and was wide around the turn. Will benefit from that race

#6 Danbury ...obvious contender on paper but why 10 months off after a good debut?
6 was a triple crown nominee...
Velasquez to-->Velazquez angle as well:)

bello
09-14-2016, 03:04 PM
The 5 is my biggest enigma this race. On further review he was Vet scratched at Del Mar on 08-11 and combine that with the above description I am not so comfortable. But there are plenty of NYB MCL races for him.

I am also wondering if he was a travelmate of another horse in the Sadler barn coming in for a stakes race.

You picked a tough one RF....Regardless, my top choice is the 8.

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 03:16 PM
The 5 is my biggest enigma this race. On further review he was Vet scratched at Del Mar on 08-11 and combine that with the above description I am not so comfortable. But there are plenty of NYB MCL races for him.

I am also wondering if he was a travelmate of another horse in the Sadler barn coming in for a stakes race.

You picked a tough one RF....Regardless, my top choice is the 8.

:6: is really being hammered early in the race5->race6 Daily Doubles...

I think that could be so called 'smart money'

this is a tough one, I agree

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 03:55 PM
:3: violette is favored???

pick a winner and you get 7,8 bucks here at a minimum

Lemon Drop Husker
09-14-2016, 04:09 PM
:3: violette is favored???

pick a winner and you get 7,8 bucks here at a minimum

:3: looks sharp in the PP and on the track and is getting bet.

I'd have a tough time firing anything.

bello
09-14-2016, 04:14 PM
#3 very professional once the race started. Fooled Maggie in the post parade.

Robert Fischer
09-14-2016, 04:22 PM
$5 W/P/S :8: =$15 [$0 $11.25 $6.75]

$1 EX :7::8: / :1::3: =$4 [$0]

.50 Tris

:8: / :1::3::5::6::7: / :1::3::5::6::7: =$10 [$0]

:1::3::5::6::7: / :8: / :1::3::5::6::7: =$10 [36.25]

:1::3::5::6::7: / :1::3::5::6::7: / :8: =$10 [$0]

TIP FOR THE TELLER =$1

TOTAL = http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/040928/040928_newfifty_hmed_7a.grid-6x2.jpg

BET $50
RETURNED $54.25
- $0.25 (TELLER KEEPS QUARTER)


i made $4 while risking $50.
teller made $1.25 while risking nothing

was fun to cap... Race kind of developed how I expected, except for the 3 firing so big.

bello
09-14-2016, 05:07 PM
Well you could have made more if you weren't such a big tipper.

I made nothing but enjoyed the thread.

whodoyoulike
09-14-2016, 06:06 PM
because some of these MSWs are Fun to guess along with! :D ...


Well with so many FTS I really don't like to guess. And, I really like these type of threads but try to keep them other than mdns.