Trakus idea

[teddy]

I read an interesting article about it yesterday. Where they did a study on turf races in the daily racing form. Probably most of you have read this it's about grout races on the turf and obviously it shows great rio on horses with a 30 or greater delta. I noticed they were races where all of the horses have a higher Delta then the winner. That points to a better than looked win. love to hear if anyone plays those next out.

[ReplayRandall]

I read an interesting article about it yesterday. Where they did a study on turf races in the daily racing form. Probably most of you have read this it's about grout races on the turf and obviously it shows great rio on horses with a 30 or greater delta. I noticed they were races where all of the horses have a higher Delta then the winner. That points to a better than looked win. love to hear if anyone plays those next out.

In 2014, John Shufon came up with a methodology for horses with a delta of 32 or more. I will post this in 2 parts, the second part will answer teddy's question about follow-up plays:

PART 1- Written by John Shufon

"The Trakus T-Charts, which are maintained on each participating track’s website, show time and distance measurements by segment and cumulatively for each point of call. The finish screen of the charts provides the actual distance run by each horse and computes a delta value that signifies the difference in ground covered by each runner relative to the winner. For example, if the second-place horse received a delta of 32, it means the horse ran 32 more feet than the winner, presumably due to a wide trip.

To evaluate the usefulness of Trakus ground-loss data for finding horses to bet back who have a good chance to be successful, turf races at two meets were selected for analysis: the 2013-14 Gulfstream winter meet and the 2014 Saratoga meet. Turf races were selected because of their relatively tight turns, where ground loss is particularly disadvantageous.

The methodology used to find qualifying horses:
1. The Trakus T-Charts on the track’s websites were used.
2. Only two-turn races on turf were analyzed.

To find qualifying horses, the following criteria were used, based on the principle that a length is about eight feet:
a. If the delta value for any horse was between 32 and 40 feet and the horse finished within four lengths of the winner, the horse was selected for follow-up; and
b. If the delta value was 40 feet or greater and the horse finished within five lengths of the winner, the horse was selected for follow-up.

The methodology was designed to find horses who were in contention and might have even won had they not raced wide. It should be noted that only races where horses received a positive delta (wide relative to the winner) were selected for the study. Some leeway (two feet max) also was granted for horses who may have been just under the delta criteria if other traffic trouble warranted follow-up."

[teddy]

yes I read this study too.. I added 30 horses last night and will add more from nyc tracks. I think they are too sharp in NYC for this to do much. I also did GP. Not as sharp down there. Well test it out. I used Some dirt too and horses that were the widest and still won. Fun to track....

[ReplayRandall]

yes I read this study too.. I added 30 horses last night and will add more from nyc tracks. I think they are too sharp in NYC for this to do much. I also did GP. Not as sharp down there. Well test it out. I used Some dirt too and horses that were the widest and still won. Fun to track....

Here's part 2, with results from GP and Sar/Bel:

For the Gulfstream analysis, the runback race had to occur within the time frame of that meet (Nov.30, 2013, through April 6, 2014), but the start could occur at any track, distance, or surface. For Saratoga, the runback
race could occur either during that meet or during the subsequent Belmont
fall meet (covering a cumulative time period of July 18 through Oct. 26). As with the Gulfstream analysis, the first race back could occur at any track, distance, or surface.
There were 117 total qualifying runbacks between Gulfstream and Saratoga.
Gulfstream Park results
The results of the study for the Gulfstream turf course can be summarized in one word: impressive.
Of the 66 horses who qualified, 21 horses (32 percent)came back to win at an average parimutuel win payoff of $10.08. The $2 return on investment was a very healthy $3.21.
Twentyone other horses hit the board at average odds of 3.701, and six nonwinning runbacks won their next start at odds of just over 6.101.
The average odds for the 24 horses finishing off the board was 13.601.
This relatively high value suggests that several of these horses may have been eliminated from consideration if traditional handicapping principles were applied, which would further increase the ROI.

Saratoga results-
The results of the Saratoga runbacks, are not as impressive as at Gulfstream but certainly are decent and confirm the benefits of including Trakus groundloss data when handicapping. Of the 51 horses who qualified based on the criteria, 13 horses (25 percent) came back to win at an average win mutuel of $9.83 and a $2 ROI of $2.51. Twenty other horses hit the board at average odds of 4.801, and 10 nonwinning runbacks won their next start at odds of just over 6-1.
The average odds for the 18 horses finishing off the board was 9.301.

Summary
Summarizing the results of qualifying horses for the two meets, and the runbacks collectively won 29 percent of their next starts, with an average win payoff of $9.98. Approximately twothirds of the runbacks hit the board, a percentage that interestingly is consistent across both venues. The cumulative $2 ROI for the 117 races is a respectable $2.90. Achieving a flatbet profit given such diverse circumstances without the benefit of conventional handicapping is certainly noteworthy. In addition, 16 nonwinning runbacks won their next start at average odds of 5.501.
This means 50 horses, or 43 percent of all qualifying horses, won one of
their next two starts.

To the question of whether Trakus data can be used to find winners, the answer is a qualified yes.Complementing that data with traditional handicapping methods should improve on the results achieved.

Shufon is a retired analyst and bureau director from the New York State Department of Transportation. He is an avid recreational horseplayer and an original member of Epona Racing Stable.

[AltonKelsey]

let me know when trackus grows a pair and puts the data up in downloadable form.

its 2016, im not going to sit there and type the data in.

[rsetup]

let me know when trackus grows a pair and puts the data up in downloadable form.

its 2016, im not going to sit there and type the data in. Do you have any programming skills?

[AltonKelsey]

Considerable. But the last time I looked it was non trivial to grab the data programmatically.

I cooked up something, but I wasn't happy with the amount of manual work involved.

I've asked in the past for ideas but never got a response.

[cj]

Considerable. But the last time I looked it was non trivial to grab the data programmatically.

I cooked up something, but I wasn't happy with the amount of manual work involved.

I've asked in the past for ideas but never got a response.

Also, the problem with programming for the Trakus data as it is currently presented is they can change it up at the drop of that. I've been down that road with Equibase many times. It is much better the last few years since they worked with HANA, but Trakus has no such agreements.

[classhandicapper]

Also, the problem with programming for the Trakus data as it is currently presented is they can change it up at the drop of that. I've been down that road with Equibase many times. It is much better the last few years since they worked with HANA, but Trakus has no such agreements.

The other problem is that when it malfunctions you sometimes get no data at all.

[classhandicapper]

The results of that study surprised me when I originally read it. To the extent that ground loss matters, I thought most of it was built into the odds because some of the TG and Sheets players are huge bettors and they all have that information built right into their figures.

I thought the real value would be in understanding when ground loss matters a lot and when it doesn't matter much.

I have heard that some TG/Sheets players do especially well on turf, but I can't imagine they do anywhere near as well as this study indicates.

[AltonKelsey]

I could deal with an occasional change of format.

Basically these guys have been around for years now, and they are giving the middle finger to horseplayers who would like to use the data.

I called them about it long ago, and got a non answer.

I don't even know of a PAY method of getting the data in CSV format.

[AltonKelsey]

The results of that study surprised me when I originally read it. To the extent that ground loss matters, I thought most of it was built into the odds because some of the TG and Sheets players are huge bettors and they all have that information built right into their figures.

I thought the real value would be in understanding when ground loss matters a lot and when it doesn't matter much.

I have heard that some TG/Sheets players do especially well on turf, but I can't imagine they do anywhere near as well as this study indicates.

Good point. TG and Ragozin have included GL in the number from day 1, which is why they might come up with a 'buried' performance more often then pure speed figs might reveal.

So yes, the sample was probably too small to be reflective of the real roi.

[rsetup]

I suggest 'web scraping with python' Ryan Mitchell. Might be a free pdf of it on the web.

[teddy]

You can hire data entry people dirt cheap in India. I have use them on websites for programming and you're talking about 1/10 of the cost. If you can get the data and format to them they can do it for pennies.

[AltonKelsey]

You can hire data entry people dirt cheap in India. I have use them on websites for programming and you're talking about 1/10 of the cost. If you can get the data and format to them they can do it for pennies.

Bottom line is, I shouldn't have to hack python or hire an Indian to get a little data into a spreadsheet.

What are they afraid of?

[Tom]

You can hire data entry people dirt cheap in India. I have use them on websites for programming and you're talking about 1/10 of the cost. If you can get the data and format to them they can do it for pennies.

You could hire them away from BRIS of $10.25 an hour. ;)

[classhandicapper]

Bottom line is, I shouldn't have to hack python or hire an Indian to get a little data into a spreadsheet.

What are they afraid of?

I'm not 100% sure about this, but I think the tracks own the "data" and Trakus is more focused on the technology and presenting the various simulated views of the race. So to get that "data" you would probably have to negotiate separate deals with each Trakus track.

[Tom]

Stupid that Tracks are restricting Trakus data....isn't it in their interest to ENCOURAGE handicapping and betting?

If you ever need an idiot, just go to your local track - they hire most of them.

[rsetup]

As I mentioned on the HKG thread, Trakus provides the data and, it appears, two possible web displays of it. One is easy to scrape, the other has the data hidden in javascript, probably, and harder to scrape. Just checked a few tracks: you can see the data in web sourcecode for TAM, CD, and GP; you can't for NYRA or WO. Wonder why that is?

[cj]

As I mentioned on the HKG thread, Trakus provides the data and, it appears, two possible web displays of it. One is easy to scrape, the other has the data hidden in javascript, probably, and harder to scrape. Just checked a few tracks: you can see the data in web sourcecode for TAM, CD, and GP; you can't for NYRA or WO. Wonder why that is?

That is the decision of the racetracks from what I understand.

[teddy]

Lady Bling one today at Belmont . She was on my list. I didn't get notified because she was already entered.

[teddy]

upcoming entries... for fun

trinitys turn on the 16th los al

big discovery at parx on 17th...

[teddy]

girl downstairs los al the 17th...

[teddy]

Marnesia big girl was on the list but I didn't get the entry because it happened before I got the account. She's was 4/5 and won at Bel

[teddy]

I just got an email that freedom March was in today at Gulfstream and ran third he was one of the horses. I think from here on out I will be able to post them without missing them like this. So it's got to winners and a third to date. A funny sidenote is that she did not lose an inch of ground the whole way got blocked all up on the inside could not get through for her life and was flying at the wire for what would've probably been an easy win.

[cj]

I just got an email that freedom March was in today at Gulfstream and ran third he was one of the horses. I think from here on out I will be able to post them without missing them like this. So it's got to winners and a third to date.

Counting the ones that won before you posted is the biggest fallacy database handicappers struggle with in my opinion.

I'm not knocking you or the thread at all, but when testing something that looks promising it is best to start with a brand new sample and see how it does. More often than not the results will be disappointing, or worse.

[teddy]

I felt like that would be coming but what I did was I put 40 horses in two nights ago and evidently some had already been entered so I had no idea. Equibass virtual stable I had no influence on whether or not the horse did anything even though yes it got posted after the race I post of everyone that room. I think there's a couple more in the next day I posted so that will give you a small sample. I don't expected to do anything but be unprofitable it's just something fun to track.

[teddy]

Energia fribby just finished nine at Kentucky downs at 26 to 1. Now the study above said to keep these horses for the next race so he might be great Superfecta horse in easier company

[rsetup]

A lot of fun. :jump:

[teddy]

Ok two hours to put in 82 of the Outsiders, those cast to the fringe of society, Yes they have lost ground in this hard life. Pushed wide , shunned from the rail. the overland route. Let the fun begin. Be careful of the woodbine horses.. had to take some from sprints . No data on that like we had on the two turn turfers..

[teddy]

Well Trinity's turn paid 6.80. And Forest lass at Woodbine got beat at 9-1

So far we've gotten over $26 back with $12 out.

[teddy]

BOld cry on the 18th at FE

[teddy]

Girl down stairs won 7:80

Bay point count list at 5-1 ran fifth

Does anyone care?? I'll quit if no one cares

[teddy]

Maybe pa could move this to selections if no discussion is happening .

[teddy]

Big discovery is in the eighth race On 20th

[teddy]

Remove bold cry from the study. It turns out that he actually won his next race after the race he was rated on at even money at Fort Erie so today's race is a no play

[cj]

Maybe pa could move this to selections if no discussion is happening .


It is early, thread is fine here.

[Secondbest]

Keep posting .

[teddy]

Artesian finished second at pid. 1.1. To one

[teddy]

Bold discovery ran third and paid 260 to show. Of course I bet win place

[teddy]

Well so far they haven't been off the door when they were under 5 to 2

[teddy]

richmond street won 4.50

[teddy]

Thru 12 races looking good...so far

[teddy]

Fist bump in the third race at Gulfstream come get some he was six wide the whole race. My only concern is that the horse ran so hard he might bounce. It looks like a competitive race so you may still get 7 to 5. I just paid him on the pick five.? I will have to wait and get it least 7 to 5

[teddy]

3.00 260 210 ON FISTBUMP.... TOO MANY PEOPLE WERE CLUED IN ON HIS WIDE TRIP. WE GOT TO KEEP THIS STUFF QUIET FOLKS..LOL TRYING TO SOUND LIKE GREG THERE.. HAHAH

[teddy]

BIG LINE UP FOR TOMORROW..

[teddy]

under 3-1 We are $14 out and $25.80 back. 5 of 7 winners.. impossible to keep this up..I know.

[EMD4ME]

3.00 260 210 ON FISTBUMP.... TOO MANY PEOPLE WERE CLUED IN ON HIS WIDE TRIP. WE GOT TO KEEP THIS STUFF QUIET FOLKS..LOL TRYING TO SOUND LIKE GREG THERE.. HAHAH

SSSHHHHHHHHH........ :lol:


And keep up the good work Teddy :ThmbUp:

[teddy]

Hey FOLKS..LOL

Premier trakus picks is going to release these GEMS..

No charge lol

Handicap these picks...I promise you will do better.
Friday...
Good Looking.. race 2 los al
Saratoga by design.. Belmont race 9... 20-1..superhorse??
Oaktown.. woodbine race 8 ....
Reverse Woodbine race 5

Saturday...
best bard.parx race 3
Final offer woodbine
Swoop and stick woodbine race 10
Isotherm...laural race 7
March.. Laural race 2
Ultimate luck..Los al 1
Black jack cat los al 8
Best concert gp 2
Lucky warrior gp5
said no one ever gp 1

Would someone handicap these and give opinons of chances .. even if its just power numbers or something... thanks. I cant find fault with Oaktown and Reverse tomorow...

[Sir Barton]

Good Looking- raced back from the wide trip and moved up quite a bit. In tough this race probably third best today but has a rider change to a bug -7# weight shift and moves from rail last out to 7 post today.

Saratoga by Design- moves from the 9 post last to the :1: for this race. The :3: is a Chad dropping from sb maiden special to this sb maiden claimer thus the 20 to 1. :3: , :11: , :12: look more likely.

Reverse- should be favored dropping back to msw off 150k stakes 3/4 length miss last out. Her ground loss race was probably 2 back. I don't see the morning line holding up on this one.

Oaktown- I dont really play the poly at woodbine but this race look pretty tough. He is in the mix probably 3rd most likely.

[teddy]

Thanks for helping..Much appreciated.

[teddy]

Looks like woodbine horses are the best of the lot. The hosts seem to think they in the top 3 so I am going to do a $200 parlay to show. If the first horse is 3-1. or LESS

[teddy]

Reverse went off 7-1 and was fourth

Oakton wins off at 7-2 Nice score on him to place and show..Oakton was 3-1 till the off......

[teddy]

Saturday...
best bard.parx race 3 favorite... FIRE
Final offer woodbine check track picks
Swoop and stick woodbine race 10 check track picks
Isotherm...laural race 7 7-2 generally liked by track handicappers
March.. Laural race 6 5-1 Not selected...
Ultimate luck..Los al 1 favorite FIRE
Black jack cat los al 8 favorite FIRE
Best concert gp 5 long shot
Lucky warrior gp5 longshot
said no one ever gp 1 trackman pick... FIRE


I love eponies .. its free and they are pretty good numbers. I suggest checking to make sure the picks are in agreement with their selections.

[teddy]

Best Concert and Lucky Warrior are not without real hope for the ticket. I am playing them as keys in the super. Race is wide open.

[teddy]

Poppin like itd hot today FOLKS

[teddy]

Let me conclude and saying that they are Roi was off the charts for flat betting. Place and show also in the lower odds ranges. This study included track us information along with some video watching. Some of the handicapping of these horses would've definitely increased roi. Or we might might've gotten lucky for a few days. If anyone else wants to start a thread and try to copy the same thing that I did it might be meaningful.

[teddy]

3 plays today

Louis baby boy gp.. 2nd 3.80 2.20
Saluatation.......same race as above but was 6-1 out
Rosedale Arch at belmont 9 Just missed at 9=1 7.70 5.20


Daily confirming results.. just use replays and the off odds are your handicapping. Plus use track cappers. eponies.. ect.. You dont play every race anymore and you dont have to sit here all day lol.

Im considering adding speed duel horses.

[AltonKelsey]

Dead heat for place in the 3rd at BEL today, but on the screen Trackus reported beaten L as 1 1/2 for one and 1 3/4 for the other