cj
07-14-2004, 12:52 PM
Someone asked me to handicap this race through email using my numbers, so I did. Figured I'd post it here as well.
Here are the numbers, analysis below:
1 DUKE'S CROSSING 5yo NY 12-1 S
====================
Aqu 11/06/2003 9.0 7/11 my S-Alw 46000N2X Velazquez 4.50 Lb No response 84 83 64 70| 68
Lrl 10/11/2003 9.5 7/ 9 fst R-MdMilClasc190k Wilson R 42.30 Lb No factor 103 105 58 92| 86
Bel 09/14/2003 8.5 2/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bailey J D 3.80 Lb Steadied start 72 78 63 67| 67
Sar 08/22/2003 8.5 3/12 fm S-Alw 46000N2X Velasquez 28.50 Lb Inside trip, no rally 98 92 71 76| 75
Sar 08/01/2003 9.0 7/ 8 sly S-Alw 44000N1X Bailey J D 4.50 Lb Bumped after start 102 86 71 86| 82*
Bel 07/11/2003 8.5 5/ 8 gd S-Alw 44000N1X Prado E S 3.65 Lb Awkward start, wide 79 73 74 71| 72
Pha 06/07/2003 12.0 9/10 sly GrenwodCpH100k Flores J L 9.00 Lb Steadied 3/8 No par 48| `48`
Bel 05/11/2003 8.5 1/ 8 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Bravo J 2.50 Lb Mild stretch rally 86 88 74 77| 76
Aqu 04/26/2003 9.0 5/ 8 sly S-Alw 44000N1X Bravo J 3.05 Lb Game finish outside 81 74 68 72| 70
Previously trained by Carlesimo Charles Jr
Aqu 03/28/2003 9.0 10/12 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Luzzi M J 2.45 Lb Had no rally 80 73 49 60| 57
2 YOURSTOCOMMAND 4yo NY 15-1 E
Bel 06/26/2004 8.5 1/ 8 gd S-Alw 46000N2X Lezcano J 39.50 L Set pace, tired 91 89 91 66| 77
Bel 06/13/2004 8.5 10/12 fm S-Alw 46000N2X Gryder A T 71.50 L Eased stretch < 0| < 0
====================
Aqui 01/01/2004 8.5 3/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Cotto P L 4.80 L Set pace, tired 77 75 76 60| 67
Aqui 12/12/2003 8.3 6/10 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bridgmohan 2.35 L Stalked, bid, tired 85 85 84 64| 74
Aqu 11/23/2003 8.0 12/12 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Bridgmohan 13.40 L Kept to drive 77 83 77 83| 83*
Aqu 10/29/2003 9.0 10/10 sly S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 2.75* L Long lead, kept busy 91 73 91 73| 86*
Bel 10/12/2003 8.5 9/ 9 sly S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 2.60 L Pace, held place 73 78 73 75| 77
Beli 09/21/2003 9.0 10/12 fm S-Md Sp Wt 42k Chavez L D 24.00 L Pace, clear, faltered 57 59 57 58| 60
Bel 09/06/2003 8.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Velasquez 8.00 L Chased btwn, faded 75 59 67 35| 45
Sar 08/25/2003 7.0 4/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 23.70 L Inside, no response 71 53 60 43| 53
3 TOMORROWS MAGIC 3yo NY 5-1 E
Bel 06/11/2004 8.0 3/ 5 fst S-Alw 45080N2X Velazquez 0.95* L Vied outside, tired 94 83 94 73| 82
Bel 05/27/2004 8.5 3/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Velazquez 4.30 L Vied outside, tired 95 86 95 76| 86
Aqu 04/25/2004 8.0 6/11 fst R-NYStlTmSqr150k Migliore R 1.00* L Bumped after start 88 83 73 56| 63
Aqu 04/15/2004 7.0 2/ 5 gd S-Alw 42140N1X Santos J A 2.10 L Bobbled start, driving 85 80 85 80| 85*
Aqu 03/28/2004 6.0 5/ 5 fst S-Alw 42140N1X Prado E S 1.85 L Chased 3 wide, no bid 86 76 81 61| 73
====================
Aqu 11/28/2003 6.0 3/10 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Velazquez 1.15* L Far back early, fog Fog 54| `60`
====================
Bel 06/20/2003 5.0 6/ 6 my S-Md Sp Wt 41k Velazquez 1.60 L Drew clear when roused 77 84 77 84| 92*
4 GOT A BEEP 4yo NY 5-1 EP
Bel 06/26/2004 8.5 2/ 8 gd S-Alw 46000N2X Chavez J F 5.00 L Between rivals, tired 91 89 91 68| 77
Bel 06/11/2004 8.0 5/ 5 fst S-Alw 45080N2X Bridgmohan 2.85 L Game finish outside 94 83 91 80| 84
Bel 05/27/2004 8.5 7/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bridgmohan 6.00 Lb Bumped start, 3 wide 95 86 94 72| 81
Aqu 04/29/2004 7.0 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 45000N2X Jara F 18.00 Lb Outfinished for place 87 77 83 71| 76
Aqu 04/16/2004 8.0 5/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Jara F 10.30 Lb 3 wide move, prevailed 84 69 81 69| 72*
Aqu 04/02/2004 9.0 7/ 7 gd S-Alw 44000N1X Jara F 14.70 Lb Vied outside, tired 76 88 76 74| 74
Aqui 03/04/2004 9.0 2/11 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Cotto P L 4.30 Lb Inside trip, no rally 71 66 59 58| 57
Aqui 02/21/2004 9.0 2/ 9 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Espinoza J 1.95* Lb Pressed pace, clear 63 65 63 65| 64*
Aqui 02/12/2004 8.3 8/ 9 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Espinoza J 7.10 Lb Good finish outside 80 70 73 67| 70
Aqui 01/21/2004 6.0 8/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Espinoza J 4.70 Lb Chased 3 wide, no bid 77 81 67 58| 62
5 WILL'S JOURNEY 4yo NY 7-2 P
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Aqu 04/17/2004 8.0 2/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Santos J A 2.35 L 3 wide move, prevailed 75 82 72 82| 79*
Aqu 03/20/2004 7.0 6/11 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Prado E S 2.75* L Stumbled after start 91 73 75 66| 68
====================
Aqui 02/02/2003 6.0 5/10 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 0.45* L 3 wide move, driving 83 67 66 67| 76*
Aqui 01/12/2003 6.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 1.25* L Inside move, gamely 73 73 62 69| 77
6 NAPOLEON SOLO 4yo NY 30-1 EP
====================
Bel 09/14/2003 8.5 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Chavez L D 20.50 Pulled up turn DNF| DNF
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Bel 05/21/2003 8.5 4/ 7 my Alw 48000N2X Ganpath R 59.75 Eased stretch DNF| DNF
Aqu 04/30/2003 9.0 7/ 8 fst Alw 46000N2X Lakeman A 68.00 Vanned off 91 93 67 49| 57
Aqu 03/28/2003 9.0 1/ 5 fst Alw 50000C Castellano 9.90 Chased inside, tired 85 98 82 83| 89
Aqui 03/09/2003 8.3 6/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Castellano 4.00 Speed 3 wide, driving 77 75 77 75| 85*
Aqui 02/27/2003 8.3 7/ 9 fst Alw 44000N1X Carr D 64.75 4 wide trip, tired 83 81 82 65| 80
Aqui 02/05/2003 8.3 1/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Carr D 11.50 Vied inside, tired 93 75 92 56| 75
Aqui 01/09/2003 9.0 12/12 my S-Md Sp Wt 42k Carr D 26.75 In charge, scored 63 59 63 59| 73*
Aqui 12/08/2002 6.0 6/12 fst Md Sp Wt 41k Beckner D 34.75 Widest turn then empty 81 76 56 50| 63
7 CASPER PETERSON 4yo NY 5-2 EP
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Bel 05/26/2004 9.0 4/10 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 2.30 L Took over when roused 78 79 78 79| 77*
Bel 05/08/2004 8.0 1/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 2.40* L Set pace, game inside 76 72 76 72| 73
Aqu 04/17/2004 8.0 7/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 1.40* L Dug in gamely inside 75 82 75 81| 77
Aqu 03/20/2004 7.0 1/11 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Migliore R 3.00 L Game finish inside 91 73 87 72| 77
Aqui 02/20/2004 6.0 8/ 9 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Migliore R 1.05* L Between rivals, tired 76 71 76 65| 70
Aqui 01/21/2004 6.0 1/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Migliore R 7.50 L Set pace, drew off 77 81 77 81| 78*
Previously trained by Badgett William Jr
====================
Aqui 12/07/2002 6.0 10/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Gryder A T 51.75 L No speed mid track 68 65 44 34| 45
8 BUBBA SPARKS 3yo NY 3-1 EP
Bel 06/25/2004 9.0 8/ 8 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Luzzi M J 2.60 Lb Vied 3 wide, clear 93 84 93 84| 88*
Bel 05/31/2004 7.5 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Luzzi M J 12.60 L Pressed pace, weakened 68 85 67 78| 73
Previously trained by Orseno Joseph
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Aqui 02/01/2004 8.5 6/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Smith A E 19.40 L Set pace, tired 65 71 64 64| 68
Aqui 12/31/2003 8.3 4/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Gryder A T 9.40 L Steadied first turn 68 76 54 31| 41
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Aqu 11/16/2003 8.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 5.20 L When roused, clear 58 54 58 54| 63*
Bel 10/13/2003 6.0 4/ 9 my S-Md Sp Wt 41k Chavez J F 4.60 L Came wide, no rally 77 57 66 47| 62
Bel 09/21/2003 5.5 3/10 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Chavez J F 4.60 L Bumped start, inside 73 72 73 63| 76
Sar 08/27/2003 5.5 1/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Luzzi M J 22.60 Steadied inside, green 70 64 58 45| 58
1-The one comes off a long layoff. He has a couple races that would make him a contender, but being an "S" type horse, closer that is, I wouldn't like him even without the layoff. A one turn route is a tough spot to come back in, this guy is not for me.
2-The horse returned from a long layoff on the turf. A surface he hates and is not bred for, the race is a toss. Next out, he runs a 77 with a good 91 pace figure. Seeing how this guy ran a few mid 80s races before the layoff, and this is his 3d back, I expect improvement and consider him a contender.
3-This horse is a contender on the numbers. I don't think you will see 5-1 on him with his connections. He also could be on the downhill slide. This is his 6th race in his current form cycle, so he is probably maxed out. I'll watch the board, but he's probably not a play.
4-This guy has mildly competitive numbers. I don't like that I see no breaks anywhere in his PPs. I doubt he's going to get any better, and with his last race being a slight decline, I expect more of the same today.
5-Will be bet heavily. I don't like the layoffs, he has problems physically. Throw in that his numbers a on the light side, and he's a toss for me at 7-2 on the ML.
6-Two DNFs, a LONG layoff, and an 0 for 54 rider is enough for me to look no further.
7-Decent, steady horse, though steadily too slow. Layoff after a win is always a concern. 5-2 ML is a definite non-bet.
8-Horse ran the race top last out, an 88. Normally, I would discount him since he next highest showing number is a 76. But, the trainer change is all I need to see. I ignore the other 6 races and take the improvement at face value, especially when its for a high percentage trainer like this guy Levine.
So, I see the 8 as the best horse in the race, and the 2 as the most likely horse to run better than expected at a very nice price. I will play the race around these two.
Here are the numbers, analysis below:
1 DUKE'S CROSSING 5yo NY 12-1 S
====================
Aqu 11/06/2003 9.0 7/11 my S-Alw 46000N2X Velazquez 4.50 Lb No response 84 83 64 70| 68
Lrl 10/11/2003 9.5 7/ 9 fst R-MdMilClasc190k Wilson R 42.30 Lb No factor 103 105 58 92| 86
Bel 09/14/2003 8.5 2/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bailey J D 3.80 Lb Steadied start 72 78 63 67| 67
Sar 08/22/2003 8.5 3/12 fm S-Alw 46000N2X Velasquez 28.50 Lb Inside trip, no rally 98 92 71 76| 75
Sar 08/01/2003 9.0 7/ 8 sly S-Alw 44000N1X Bailey J D 4.50 Lb Bumped after start 102 86 71 86| 82*
Bel 07/11/2003 8.5 5/ 8 gd S-Alw 44000N1X Prado E S 3.65 Lb Awkward start, wide 79 73 74 71| 72
Pha 06/07/2003 12.0 9/10 sly GrenwodCpH100k Flores J L 9.00 Lb Steadied 3/8 No par 48| `48`
Bel 05/11/2003 8.5 1/ 8 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Bravo J 2.50 Lb Mild stretch rally 86 88 74 77| 76
Aqu 04/26/2003 9.0 5/ 8 sly S-Alw 44000N1X Bravo J 3.05 Lb Game finish outside 81 74 68 72| 70
Previously trained by Carlesimo Charles Jr
Aqu 03/28/2003 9.0 10/12 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Luzzi M J 2.45 Lb Had no rally 80 73 49 60| 57
2 YOURSTOCOMMAND 4yo NY 15-1 E
Bel 06/26/2004 8.5 1/ 8 gd S-Alw 46000N2X Lezcano J 39.50 L Set pace, tired 91 89 91 66| 77
Bel 06/13/2004 8.5 10/12 fm S-Alw 46000N2X Gryder A T 71.50 L Eased stretch < 0| < 0
====================
Aqui 01/01/2004 8.5 3/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Cotto P L 4.80 L Set pace, tired 77 75 76 60| 67
Aqui 12/12/2003 8.3 6/10 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bridgmohan 2.35 L Stalked, bid, tired 85 85 84 64| 74
Aqu 11/23/2003 8.0 12/12 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Bridgmohan 13.40 L Kept to drive 77 83 77 83| 83*
Aqu 10/29/2003 9.0 10/10 sly S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 2.75* L Long lead, kept busy 91 73 91 73| 86*
Bel 10/12/2003 8.5 9/ 9 sly S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 2.60 L Pace, held place 73 78 73 75| 77
Beli 09/21/2003 9.0 10/12 fm S-Md Sp Wt 42k Chavez L D 24.00 L Pace, clear, faltered 57 59 57 58| 60
Bel 09/06/2003 8.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Velasquez 8.00 L Chased btwn, faded 75 59 67 35| 45
Sar 08/25/2003 7.0 4/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 23.70 L Inside, no response 71 53 60 43| 53
3 TOMORROWS MAGIC 3yo NY 5-1 E
Bel 06/11/2004 8.0 3/ 5 fst S-Alw 45080N2X Velazquez 0.95* L Vied outside, tired 94 83 94 73| 82
Bel 05/27/2004 8.5 3/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Velazquez 4.30 L Vied outside, tired 95 86 95 76| 86
Aqu 04/25/2004 8.0 6/11 fst R-NYStlTmSqr150k Migliore R 1.00* L Bumped after start 88 83 73 56| 63
Aqu 04/15/2004 7.0 2/ 5 gd S-Alw 42140N1X Santos J A 2.10 L Bobbled start, driving 85 80 85 80| 85*
Aqu 03/28/2004 6.0 5/ 5 fst S-Alw 42140N1X Prado E S 1.85 L Chased 3 wide, no bid 86 76 81 61| 73
====================
Aqu 11/28/2003 6.0 3/10 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Velazquez 1.15* L Far back early, fog Fog 54| `60`
====================
Bel 06/20/2003 5.0 6/ 6 my S-Md Sp Wt 41k Velazquez 1.60 L Drew clear when roused 77 84 77 84| 92*
4 GOT A BEEP 4yo NY 5-1 EP
Bel 06/26/2004 8.5 2/ 8 gd S-Alw 46000N2X Chavez J F 5.00 L Between rivals, tired 91 89 91 68| 77
Bel 06/11/2004 8.0 5/ 5 fst S-Alw 45080N2X Bridgmohan 2.85 L Game finish outside 94 83 91 80| 84
Bel 05/27/2004 8.5 7/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Bridgmohan 6.00 Lb Bumped start, 3 wide 95 86 94 72| 81
Aqu 04/29/2004 7.0 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 45000N2X Jara F 18.00 Lb Outfinished for place 87 77 83 71| 76
Aqu 04/16/2004 8.0 5/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Jara F 10.30 Lb 3 wide move, prevailed 84 69 81 69| 72*
Aqu 04/02/2004 9.0 7/ 7 gd S-Alw 44000N1X Jara F 14.70 Lb Vied outside, tired 76 88 76 74| 74
Aqui 03/04/2004 9.0 2/11 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Cotto P L 4.30 Lb Inside trip, no rally 71 66 59 58| 57
Aqui 02/21/2004 9.0 2/ 9 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Espinoza J 1.95* Lb Pressed pace, clear 63 65 63 65| 64*
Aqui 02/12/2004 8.3 8/ 9 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Espinoza J 7.10 Lb Good finish outside 80 70 73 67| 70
Aqui 01/21/2004 6.0 8/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Espinoza J 4.70 Lb Chased 3 wide, no bid 77 81 67 58| 62
5 WILL'S JOURNEY 4yo NY 7-2 P
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Aqu 04/17/2004 8.0 2/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Santos J A 2.35 L 3 wide move, prevailed 75 82 72 82| 79*
Aqu 03/20/2004 7.0 6/11 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Prado E S 2.75* L Stumbled after start 91 73 75 66| 68
====================
Aqui 02/02/2003 6.0 5/10 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 0.45* L 3 wide move, driving 83 67 66 67| 76*
Aqui 01/12/2003 6.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Bridgmohan 1.25* L Inside move, gamely 73 73 62 69| 77
6 NAPOLEON SOLO 4yo NY 30-1 EP
====================
Bel 09/14/2003 8.5 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 46000N2X Chavez L D 20.50 Pulled up turn DNF| DNF
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Bel 05/21/2003 8.5 4/ 7 my Alw 48000N2X Ganpath R 59.75 Eased stretch DNF| DNF
Aqu 04/30/2003 9.0 7/ 8 fst Alw 46000N2X Lakeman A 68.00 Vanned off 91 93 67 49| 57
Aqu 03/28/2003 9.0 1/ 5 fst Alw 50000C Castellano 9.90 Chased inside, tired 85 98 82 83| 89
Aqui 03/09/2003 8.3 6/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Castellano 4.00 Speed 3 wide, driving 77 75 77 75| 85*
Aqui 02/27/2003 8.3 7/ 9 fst Alw 44000N1X Carr D 64.75 4 wide trip, tired 83 81 82 65| 80
Aqui 02/05/2003 8.3 1/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Carr D 11.50 Vied inside, tired 93 75 92 56| 75
Aqui 01/09/2003 9.0 12/12 my S-Md Sp Wt 42k Carr D 26.75 In charge, scored 63 59 63 59| 73*
Aqui 12/08/2002 6.0 6/12 fst Md Sp Wt 41k Beckner D 34.75 Widest turn then empty 81 76 56 50| 63
7 CASPER PETERSON 4yo NY 5-2 EP
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Bel 05/26/2004 9.0 4/10 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 2.30 L Took over when roused 78 79 78 79| 77*
Bel 05/08/2004 8.0 1/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 2.40* L Set pace, game inside 76 72 76 72| 73
Aqu 04/17/2004 8.0 7/ 9 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Migliore R 1.40* L Dug in gamely inside 75 82 75 81| 77
Aqu 03/20/2004 7.0 1/11 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Migliore R 3.00 L Game finish inside 91 73 87 72| 77
Aqui 02/20/2004 6.0 8/ 9 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Migliore R 1.05* L Between rivals, tired 76 71 76 65| 70
Aqui 01/21/2004 6.0 1/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Migliore R 7.50 L Set pace, drew off 77 81 77 81| 78*
Previously trained by Badgett William Jr
====================
Aqui 12/07/2002 6.0 10/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Gryder A T 51.75 L No speed mid track 68 65 44 34| 45
8 BUBBA SPARKS 3yo NY 3-1 EP
Bel 06/25/2004 9.0 8/ 8 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Luzzi M J 2.60 Lb Vied 3 wide, clear 93 84 93 84| 88*
Bel 05/31/2004 7.5 9/ 9 fst S-Alw 43000N1X Luzzi M J 12.60 L Pressed pace, weakened 68 85 67 78| 73
Previously trained by Orseno Joseph
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Aqui 02/01/2004 8.5 6/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Smith A E 19.40 L Set pace, tired 65 71 64 64| 68
Aqui 12/31/2003 8.3 4/ 7 fst S-Alw 44000N1X Gryder A T 9.40 L Steadied first turn 68 76 54 31| 41
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Aqu 11/16/2003 8.0 7/12 fst S-Md Sp Wt 42k Bridgmohan 5.20 L When roused, clear 58 54 58 54| 63*
Bel 10/13/2003 6.0 4/ 9 my S-Md Sp Wt 41k Chavez J F 4.60 L Came wide, no rally 77 57 66 47| 62
Bel 09/21/2003 5.5 3/10 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Chavez J F 4.60 L Bumped start, inside 73 72 73 63| 76
Sar 08/27/2003 5.5 1/11 fst S-Md Sp Wt 41k Luzzi M J 22.60 Steadied inside, green 70 64 58 45| 58
1-The one comes off a long layoff. He has a couple races that would make him a contender, but being an "S" type horse, closer that is, I wouldn't like him even without the layoff. A one turn route is a tough spot to come back in, this guy is not for me.
2-The horse returned from a long layoff on the turf. A surface he hates and is not bred for, the race is a toss. Next out, he runs a 77 with a good 91 pace figure. Seeing how this guy ran a few mid 80s races before the layoff, and this is his 3d back, I expect improvement and consider him a contender.
3-This horse is a contender on the numbers. I don't think you will see 5-1 on him with his connections. He also could be on the downhill slide. This is his 6th race in his current form cycle, so he is probably maxed out. I'll watch the board, but he's probably not a play.
4-This guy has mildly competitive numbers. I don't like that I see no breaks anywhere in his PPs. I doubt he's going to get any better, and with his last race being a slight decline, I expect more of the same today.
5-Will be bet heavily. I don't like the layoffs, he has problems physically. Throw in that his numbers a on the light side, and he's a toss for me at 7-2 on the ML.
6-Two DNFs, a LONG layoff, and an 0 for 54 rider is enough for me to look no further.
7-Decent, steady horse, though steadily too slow. Layoff after a win is always a concern. 5-2 ML is a definite non-bet.
8-Horse ran the race top last out, an 88. Normally, I would discount him since he next highest showing number is a 76. But, the trainer change is all I need to see. I ignore the other 6 races and take the improvement at face value, especially when its for a high percentage trainer like this guy Levine.
So, I see the 8 as the best horse in the race, and the 2 as the most likely horse to run better than expected at a very nice price. I will play the race around these two.