NorCalGreg
09-04-2016, 04:02 AM
Sep. 4, 2016
Some of what I've learned in 30 years
--Find the tracks that suit YOUR handicapping style--If you're a speed player--stick to speedy tracks.
--Don't assume you're such a good handicapper, you'll adjust on the fly--you won't. Your handicapping will suffer for it.
--When betting, if free PP's are offered-take them...at least get a free Summary for the tracks you will bet--if only for the SPEED BIAS INFO.
--Horses that always have gate problems -aren't suddenly going to figure it out.
--Your Maiden you're considering that is 0-for-19...will be 0-for-20 afterwards--toss it.
--Trainers will "hold back" a horse once, but rarely twice in a row. Excuse the last race if you can--but never the last two.
--Find yourself a "niche" distance...5F, 7F, 1 Mile, etc. Specialize in that particular distance only...become the best expert you know. Combine that with a track that suits your style. Yes, there is one.
--At lower-level tracks--horses don't win once--then take 5 weeks off. They come right back if sound.
--Forget you speed horse breaking from "the parking lot" in a big field. He'll have the added task of having to clear the entire field FIRST.
--NEVER bet a winless trainer...especially if a top rider is aboard. That jock will ruin your odds--and the trainer will STILL be winless.
--A horse coming off a layoff that flashes speed and fades evenly--is a good bet next out....if dropping in class today.
--The shorter the distance--the less today's surface matters.
--Give a good look to Maiden winners --that were on the pace throughout--then drew away in the stretch. You may get a big price, as there is a natural betting bias against maiden winners first out.
--Toss any horses that have NEVER run a Speed Rating close to today's par...unless no others have either.
--Throw out any horses on the outside posts of a two-turn race at a 5/8 mile track. They'll be in a tangle of horses shuffling to the rear, before they know it.
--If your speed horse is on the rail on a muddy track--and has speed to his outside...he's already at a disadvantage.
--Keep in mind less than 25% of races are won by a horse going up in class.
--After years of experience--I've found longshot winners have most often switched riders-- for that winning day.
--That old "sprint-sprint-route" trainer angle was viable at one time--generally useless info today. When that angle became part of daily printed trainer angles--as it is today--is when it became moot.
--Front runners in dirt routes can be the best bets in racing. The betting public tends to overbet early speed in sprints--not so in routes.
-A lonely E-8 in turf routes will be overlooked and underbet..something to keep in mind.
--When looking at "the form"...focus your attention on a horse's E-2 pace figures. Starting at the bottom, slowly take in the numbers til you get to the top, or his last race.
Amazingly, many times this is an excellent "diagram" of a horse's improving condition. The ebb and flow becomes apparent, and you may suddenly notice this horse is at the top of his game right now. --Try it
-NCG
Agree-disagree--have your own tips?
Let's have them
Some of what I've learned in 30 years
--Find the tracks that suit YOUR handicapping style--If you're a speed player--stick to speedy tracks.
--Don't assume you're such a good handicapper, you'll adjust on the fly--you won't. Your handicapping will suffer for it.
--When betting, if free PP's are offered-take them...at least get a free Summary for the tracks you will bet--if only for the SPEED BIAS INFO.
--Horses that always have gate problems -aren't suddenly going to figure it out.
--Your Maiden you're considering that is 0-for-19...will be 0-for-20 afterwards--toss it.
--Trainers will "hold back" a horse once, but rarely twice in a row. Excuse the last race if you can--but never the last two.
--Find yourself a "niche" distance...5F, 7F, 1 Mile, etc. Specialize in that particular distance only...become the best expert you know. Combine that with a track that suits your style. Yes, there is one.
--At lower-level tracks--horses don't win once--then take 5 weeks off. They come right back if sound.
--Forget you speed horse breaking from "the parking lot" in a big field. He'll have the added task of having to clear the entire field FIRST.
--NEVER bet a winless trainer...especially if a top rider is aboard. That jock will ruin your odds--and the trainer will STILL be winless.
--A horse coming off a layoff that flashes speed and fades evenly--is a good bet next out....if dropping in class today.
--The shorter the distance--the less today's surface matters.
--Give a good look to Maiden winners --that were on the pace throughout--then drew away in the stretch. You may get a big price, as there is a natural betting bias against maiden winners first out.
--Toss any horses that have NEVER run a Speed Rating close to today's par...unless no others have either.
--Throw out any horses on the outside posts of a two-turn race at a 5/8 mile track. They'll be in a tangle of horses shuffling to the rear, before they know it.
--If your speed horse is on the rail on a muddy track--and has speed to his outside...he's already at a disadvantage.
--Keep in mind less than 25% of races are won by a horse going up in class.
--After years of experience--I've found longshot winners have most often switched riders-- for that winning day.
--That old "sprint-sprint-route" trainer angle was viable at one time--generally useless info today. When that angle became part of daily printed trainer angles--as it is today--is when it became moot.
--Front runners in dirt routes can be the best bets in racing. The betting public tends to overbet early speed in sprints--not so in routes.
-A lonely E-8 in turf routes will be overlooked and underbet..something to keep in mind.
--When looking at "the form"...focus your attention on a horse's E-2 pace figures. Starting at the bottom, slowly take in the numbers til you get to the top, or his last race.
Amazingly, many times this is an excellent "diagram" of a horse's improving condition. The ebb and flow becomes apparent, and you may suddenly notice this horse is at the top of his game right now. --Try it
-NCG
Agree-disagree--have your own tips?
Let's have them