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View Full Version : Woodward Day late pick 5


arw629
09-03-2016, 02:22 AM
Race 8---Part of me wants to single New York Chrome as he continues to climb up the ladder crushing weaker fields, but I think there is potential for a nice price in the first leg ....the longer I looked at this race the more cases I could make for more horses...the goal here is to survive this leg and maybe catch a price ...i narrowed my ticket to 1,2,3,4,5,9,10
I really wanted to use everyone but 7 and 11 but I will use these 7 and cross my fingers
Race 9- I'm using the logical runners 1,3,5,6 ...part of me wanted to just use the Pletchers but I'll play defensively and take the logical alternatives
Race 10---Thought long and hard about going 5 deep here trying to beat Frosted ...Bradester is flying under the radar and is a perfect 3 for 3 this yr ....I'm wondering if he can run Frosted into the ground and set things up for someone off the pace ...thought about 1,3,4,7,9 but settled on Frosted
Race 11---I really like Off the Tracks here and I think the cutback will be to her advantage and get her a much deserved win ...if the pace gets too hot I'm also using the Lost Raven to come running late at a big price price like she did in the Miss Preakness
Race 12---In Chad Brown I trust ...if I get this far all of the eggs are in the Chad Brown basket on these 2 layoff horses ...nothing else in this field really grabs my attention so I will hope these 2 are ready for a big effort

Ticket---1,2,3,4,5,9,10/1,3,5,6/3/3,7/3,4
Cost---$56

Had I try to beat Frosted the ticket jumps up big time and the extra $200+ didn't seem like the right price to me

arw629
09-03-2016, 03:10 AM
So I'm really tired and posted race 11 for Sunday in this post and for some reason my edit button isn't working ...in race 11 saturday I'm taking Guapaza and Suffused ....so saturday pick 5 ticket should read ....1,2,3,4,5,9,10/1,3,5,6/3/3,6/3,4
Hopefully I didn't confuse anyone!

EMD4ME
09-03-2016, 03:27 AM
To me it depends how the track is playing. I have a slight negative rail I'm seeing for Thur and Fri.

Race 8, if the 10 is a bit sharper, he is a single to me.

Race 9, the obvious 4 you picked look needed to get by as I don't trust Pletcher's 89B fig. That was an 89B through 5 1/2 but if you elongate it to 6F, it's a diminishing 82. Horse he rebuffed could be a need the lead quitter.

Race 10, Frosted as an A BUT I will use some C's in case of an early duel and someone sucking up at a price.

Race 11 and Race 12, still working on opinions.

Good luck buddy!

arw629
09-03-2016, 12:34 PM
The more I look at the 8th the more I agree with you on 10 Neolithic....gonna trim that ticket down and play a few times
2,9,10
1,5,6 ---threw out the Asmussen...i don't think she can beat the 5 but could wear her out for the 1 and 6
3
3,6
3,4

Only an $18 ticket but I'll play it a few times and hope it stays chalky

burnsy
09-03-2016, 01:12 PM
I'll play along

Race 8
:10: , :12: , :13:

Race 9

:1: , :6:

Race 10

:3:

Race 11

:3: , :4: , :6:

Race 12

:1: , :6:

Good luck folks!

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 01:26 PM
only from my superficial glance - horses to possibly include

r8 - :6: (rough go last, price is right)

r9 - looks formful , nothing too fancy

r10 - :4: (possible wire threat)

r11 -:1: (several models in a postive direction (post, trainer, jock, style, price)

r12 -:3: (the other chad brown)

arw629
09-03-2016, 03:10 PM
I'll play along

Race 8
:10: , :12: , :13:

Race 9

:1: , :6:

Race 10

:3:

Race 11

:3: , :4: , :6:

Race 12

:1: , :6:

Good luck folks!

Cherry Lodge beat a very very very fast customer last time out ...i can't leave her out of the 9th

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 03:29 PM
$213 wagered

Strategy = Weigh heavily on Bradester as an 'A'
treat my above longshots as 'b's with $2As , and .50c As1B , As2B

$2[2910
156
34
36
42]=$144

$.50[6
156
34
36
42] =$12

$.50[2910
156
34
1
42]=$18

$.50[2910
156
34
36
3]=$18


$.50[6
156
34
1
42]=$6


$.50[6
156
34
36
3]=$6


$.50[2910
156
34
1
3]=$9

atonymania
09-03-2016, 03:57 PM
8-5,10,12
9-1,5,7
10-3,1
11-6.10
12-3,4,6,9

moneyandland
09-03-2016, 04:24 PM
Race 8---Part of me wants to single New York Chrome as he continues to climb up the ladder crushing weaker fields, but I think there is potential for a nice price in the first leg ....the longer I looked at this race the more cases I could make for more horses...the goal here is to survive this leg and maybe catch a price ...i narrowed my ticket to 1,2,3,4,5,9,10
I really wanted to use everyone but 7 and 11 but I will use these 7 and cross my fingers
Race 9- I'm using the logical runners 1,3,5,6 ...part of me wanted to just use the Pletchers but I'll play defensively and take the logical alternatives
Race 10---Thought long and hard about going 5 deep here trying to beat Frosted ...Bradester is flying under the radar and is a perfect 3 for 3 this yr ....I'm wondering if he can run Frosted into the ground and set things up for someone off the pace ...thought about 1,3,4,7,9 but settled on Frosted
Race 11---I really like Off the Tracks here and I think the cutback will be to her advantage and get her a much deserved win ...if the pace gets too hot I'm also using the Lost Raven to come running late at a big price price like she did in the Miss Preakness
Race 12---In Chad Brown I trust ...if I get this far all of the eggs are in the Chad Brown basket on these 2 layoff horses ...nothing else in this field really grabs my attention so I will hope these 2 are ready for a big effort

Ticket---1,2,3,4,5,9,10/1,3,5,6/3/3,7/3,4
Cost---$56

Had I try to beat Frosted the ticket jumps up big time and the extra $200+ didn't seem like the right price to me


That's the 11th on sunday :bang:

EMD4ME
09-03-2016, 04:30 PM
10

1356

3

All

All

.50 Pick 5, cost $200

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 04:32 PM
I really wanted to spend a pile and go super deep in leg one here since it seems like the path to riches was to beat the 9 and 10 and seems like there are a handful and a half that could get it done. But, I just couldn't trim up later legs to my satisfaction despite liking mainly obvious contenders. Instead played a small ticket with my narrow top pick here as a single hoping the big pool and big field can reward a single in the opening leg and some smallish prices down the line even if the short price favorite gets home here.

10 - 1,3,5,6 - 1,3 - 3,6,8,10 - 1,2,4 = $48

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 04:39 PM
I really wanted to spend a pile and go super deep in leg one here since it seems like the path to riches was to beat the 9 and 10 and seems like there are a handful and a half that could get it done. But, I just couldn't ...


:D

:bang:

arw629
09-03-2016, 04:40 PM
SMH...

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 04:40 PM
jose ortiz @ 35/1


arw629 only player left?
OOPs , didn't see that you saved some money on your ticket

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 04:42 PM
...so saturday pick 5 ticket should read ....1,2,3,4,5,9,10/1,3,5,6/3/3,6/3,4...


Yay! Someone I can root for the rest of the way! :ThmbUp:

arw629
09-03-2016, 04:42 PM
jose ortiz @ 35/1


arw629 only player left?
OOPs , didn't see that you saved some money on your ticket

Read my posts after about cutting my ticket down...smh


Im blaming EMD!!!

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 04:43 PM
Read my posts after about cutting my ticket down...smh


Im blaming EMD!!!

Oh crap.

EMD stop posting opinions before the race and resume keeping it to post-race insight!

:D

Redboard
09-03-2016, 04:44 PM
Race 8 probably locks up the riding title for Jose. I'm so happy for him. :mad:

arw629
09-03-2016, 04:45 PM
It's ok I actually pounded the pick 4 and went very light on the pick 5 but i def wish I made that original bet...that's horse racing I guess

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 04:51 PM
It's ok I actually pounded the pick 4 and went very light on the pick 5 but i def wish I made that original bet...that's horse racing I guess

That 8th turned out to be a lot more random than just picking chalk.
The 10's gate issue may have affected him, but even so, most of us went wayyy too lean. Why? Because the 10 is a pletcher fav who almost looked good enough to single?
We followed the crowd instead of using common sense.

arw629
09-03-2016, 05:00 PM
I had this race pegged at 3 o clock this morning ....i think EMD just wanted to talk me off my original bet so he could bet it for himself and help his payout

WINMANWIN
09-03-2016, 05:10 PM
First time gelding wire to wire.....big numbers.... :D :D :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Jose Ortiz world....... :faint:

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 05:14 PM
Close enough... Dead Heat

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 05:19 PM
Close enough... Dead Heat

Boy I'm rooting for Pletcher to come down here. Might be the longest shot of the meet.

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 05:21 PM
Yeah, no chance they are taking him down despite forcing a filly that dead-heats with her out about a half-dozen paths in order to get around her. :rolleyes:

EMD4ME
09-03-2016, 05:36 PM
Read my posts after about cutting my ticket down...smh


Im blaming EMD!!!

I take the blame for posting. Hope the rest of your ticket doesn't come in, so you have sanity.

EMD4ME
09-03-2016, 05:37 PM
I had this race pegged at 3 o clock this morning ....i think EMD just wanted to talk me off my original bet so he could bet it for himself and help his payout

I would never do that. I'm too honest. Mean that sincerely.

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 05:44 PM
chasing with a p3

:3::4:/:1::3::4::9:/:2::3::4::5: =$31.95 + 1 nickle


I think that races 11/12 could have a price or 2, and that Bradester is interesting enough to produce a P3

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 05:54 PM
Criminy now I'm really regretting my pick 5 flub. Get a heater in the second leg then beat Frosted with my other horse. If I had five lifetimes I'd never figure out making the right choice in my Saratoga plays.

burnsy
09-03-2016, 06:00 PM
That 8th turned out to be a lot more random than just picking chalk.
The 10's gate issue may have affected him, but even so, most of us went wayyy too lean. Why? Because the 10 is a pletcher fav who almost looked good enough to single?
We followed the crowd instead of using common sense.

The :13: should of won the 8th. His start was awful too,was probably best, watch it. Does not matter now because i singled Frosted. Whats with these starts?

arw629
09-03-2016, 06:03 PM
If you reread my first 2 posts I could have been alive in this pick 5 to the 3,6 in the 11th and 3,4 in the 12th for a payout of a lifetime ...coulda woulda shoulda

Robert Fischer
09-03-2016, 06:06 PM
8th was key.

In this 11th race , I'm thinking 2 things

I like the :1::3::4::9:/:2::3::4::5: DD

but I also think the :3: should be more like 2/1- 5/2 in final win odds (4-1 currently)

so potentially also a win bet on the :3: in race 11 if I can get near 7/2

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 07:04 PM
$36,000 or something for fifty cents. So glad I couldn't justify spending that $288. :lol:

Edited because I shortchanged the pay by a mere $13k.

arw629
09-03-2016, 07:06 PM
That was spicy

johnhannibalsmith
09-03-2016, 08:07 PM
just realized that I shortchanged it by a lot more than merely $13k... forgot about the dead-heat... so it was a splendid $72,000 decision... :lol:

VigorsTheGrey
09-03-2016, 09:15 PM
did anyone here hit the pick 5 today?

Odds-On
09-03-2016, 09:21 PM
did anyone here hit the pick 5 today?

Travis Stone and Nick Tammaro..

EMD4ME
09-03-2016, 11:20 PM
just realized that I shortchanged it by a lot more than merely $13k... forgot about the dead-heat... so it was a splendid $72,000 decision... :lol:

OUCH....

cj
09-04-2016, 12:22 AM
just realized that I shortchanged it by a lot more than merely $13k... forgot about the dead-heat... so it was a splendid $72,000 decision... :lol:

Don't be so hard on yourself, would have surely been a few thousand less if you were added to the winners list! (sorry, couldn't resist)

VigorsTheGrey
09-04-2016, 12:40 AM
Travis Stone and Nick Tammaro..

Nice! Congrats to those two guys! Good picking...

RunForTheRoses
09-04-2016, 07:17 PM
Today would have been a nice day to take the late P5 down, one winner, nice. EMD?

EMD4ME
09-04-2016, 07:31 PM
Today would have been a nice day to take the late P5 down, one winner, nice. EMD?

Sadly no..I didn't partake in the late pick 5. Was too focused on the emerald card and the family during the day.

But congrats to the person/syndicate that hit that !


$570k large ones!

rsetup
09-04-2016, 07:38 PM
If it wasn't you, I'm holding out hope for one of the Norcalgreg guys. They have so many angles identified hard to believe they won't score on a bomb return

RunForTheRoses
09-04-2016, 07:49 PM
I didn't really play today but how hard were the Weaver horse and stakes shipper to get to? Was Weaver a first time starter? He has a great Sar record. I'm guessing the GP horse lacked number power.

RunForTheRoses
09-04-2016, 07:57 PM
Wow Chloe Bradley did some training job, 95 in January figures to be faster in August but this was a top notch field (also before the race I would have thought Ramon P off was a negative, not anymore). Also, that is a bris fig, wonder what Beyer and CJ had her at.

http://www.brisnet.com/php/bw_pdf_viewer.php?track=SAR&race=11&param1=6435&param2=260&param3=1840608