Anyone winning

[sunshine]

Beats me how anyone can win betting on the tote, it’s difficult enough on the exchanges with fixed odds and level books.

Just in case people think I bet on the horses all night. It says posted at 3.30 am but its actualy 9 am here.

Any winners?

[acorn54]

i chime in here. the game has devolved to one where only the full fields of summer on the weekends are the ones where i have a positive roi. the rest of the races i bet are simply betting into uncompetitive fields with prohibitive favorites, and thats where my winnings are cut in half or so.

[biggestal99]

I lay on the X and I am a winner for the year.

Haven,t placed a bet on the tote, save for a promo tvg was running on songbird, since the X went live here in jersey.

Allan

[EMD4ME]

IMHO, if someone/people were in the positive year to date, they probably won't admit it ...

[EMD4ME]

If there are 8 horses in a race and 2 of them have no shot to win at odds of 11/1 and 8/1, that's 16% of the win pool being dead. No vig. The tote can be beat. Especially with exotics. Detailed homework and info is key.

[thaskalos]

If there are 8 horses in a race and 2 of them have no shot to win at odds of 11/1 and 8/1, that's 16% of the win pool being dead. No vig. The tote can be beat. Especially with exotics. Detailed homework and info is key.
Yes...but this assumes that the discarded 11/1 and 8/1 horses will never win...and we know that they sometimes do.

The game can indeed be beat...but it isn't as easy to do it as most people think.

[Parkview_Pirate]

Beats me how anyone can win betting on the tote, it’s difficult enough on the exchanges with fixed odds and level books.

Just in case people think I bet on the horses all night. It says posted at 3.30 am but its actualy 9 am here.

Any winners?

Sounds like you're right on the cusp.

In theory, the tote would seem to be the most efficient of the markets - fixed, exchange or tote - due to the volume of wagering and the higher number of interests. It also lends itself to the computer wagering done by the "whales".

If one is winning betting the tote, then they would most likely improve their return in another market - which we here in the U.S. can't access (except in NJ).

[jballscalls]

I'm even for the year

[Track Collector]

I am having my best year in a long time so far. (i wager thru the totes, and not on the X.).

Still have enough time to blow it though. :D

[kingfin66]

I'm even for the year

0 / 0 +/- $0.00?

[EMD4ME]

Yes...but this assumes that the discarded 11/1 and 8/1 horses will never win...and we know that they sometimes do.

The game can indeed be beat...but it isn't as easy to do it as most people think.

I see your point. I'm talking about horses that truly are crappy at those odds. More like a horse at Emerald, that I know inside out or Belmont (a career 0/24 loser that can't win if they all fell down).

Today in race 2 there was a terrible fav in the race, I believe at 2/1. That's about 28% of the win pool being 90%-95% dead.

He was the FAV that I hated for the day and they don't come up all the time. I hear your point but sometimes they do. We should be sticking to those sometime races. Easier said than done. I hear you.

[v j stauffer]

I'm guaranteed to finish the year in the plus. Went well early. Don't have it to lose back.

I'm married. :rolleyes:

[ReplayRandall]

I'm guaranteed to finish the year in the plus. Went well early. Don't have it to lose back.

I'm married. :rolleyes:

Can't lose it ALL back when the wife has already taken HALF...:cool:

[EMD4ME]

Wife/Withholding.......Same thing :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[BCOURTNEY]

Well just get out there and grab them up, easy game!

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/steamroller.png

[Redboard]

Occasionally someone will post here who claims to have access to the year-end statements that an ADW sends out to their customers. Less than 1% actually end up in the black.

This is a business where we are buying widgets for $1 and selling them for 70-83 cents.

[biggestal99]

This is a business where we are buying widgets for $1 and selling them for 70-83 cents.

Thats the tote business. many more winners when you are getting back 88 Cents on NJX. wouldn't you think?

Allan

[Track Phantom]

I see your point. I'm talking about horses that truly are crappy at those odds. More like a horse at Emerald, that I know inside out or Belmont (a career 0/24 loser that can't win if they all fell down).

Today in race 2 there was a terrible fav in the race, I believe at 2/1. That's about 28% of the win pool being 90%-95% dead.

He was the FAV that I hated for the day and they don't come up all the time. I hear your point but sometimes they do. We should be sticking to those sometime races. Easier said than done. I hear you.
Any chance some day you might post something like this in advance?

[v j stauffer]

Any chance some day you might post something like this in advance?

On this site.

VERY little chance. :rolleyes:

[EMD4ME]

Any chance some day you might post something like this in advance?

I have done so in the past (on here) but very infrequently.

Absolutely. I honestly forget to as I tell all these people in my own horse circles at AQU or BEL.

I'll make it a point to.

Sammy the sage does a good job. I must give him credit.

[EMD4ME]

On this site.

VERY little chance. :rolleyes:

Sorry, just read this. I would've replied to you too but I've lost my yearning to interact with you on here :kiss:

[sammy the sage]

I have been for 18 months...in THE selections section... :eek:

thanks for the props Emd4me..

[sammy the sage]

On this site.

VERY little chance. :rolleyes:

Don't look in a mirror...you've made promises to share...haven't seen it... :lol:

[v j stauffer]

Sorry, just read this. I would've replied to you too but I've lost my yearning to interact with you on here :kiss:

Important safety tip.

And I'm supposed to give a crap about your yearnings why?

[v j stauffer]

Don't look in a mirror...you've made promises to share...haven't seen it... :lol:

Totally not true.

I've shared in advance many times.

I've done very little handicapping this year.

Very little.

Most of it has been in live money handicapping tournaments where posting my thoughts before the fact would put me at a severe tactical disadvantage should a fellow contestant see them.

Baseball season ended last week. I'm having knee surgery on the 8th. I expect I'll be playing some days through the tote.

I'll make it point to share in advance on those days.

And just as an FYI I don't have any mirrors in my house. Why would I want to see my own mug any more than absolutely necessary?

[coachv30]

I am currently in the Black for the year as well:ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

I am currently in the Black for the year as well:ThmbUp:

You better be :D With all those W-2G's BABYYYYYY!!!! :ThmbUp:

[coachv30]

You better be :D With all those W-2G's BABYYYYYY!!!! :ThmbUp:

27 of them to date:D

[EMD4ME]

27 of them to date:D

Hopefully, at least 27 more to go!!!! :ThmbUp:

[coachv30]

It's been a good day!!

[coachv30]

Still Rolling along!!!!!!!!

[coachv30]

Been a good year so far!!

[PaceAdvantage]

Very, very nice! :ThmbUp:

[coachv30]

Very, very nice! :ThmbUp:

Thanks Mike!!:ThmbUp:

[v j stauffer]

Looks pretty good to me. Nicely done.

[coachv30]

Thx Vic :ThmbUp:

[VigorsTheGrey]

It's been a good day!!

Coach, in your winning super ticket, what was your reasoning for not using the 7 in the fourth hole and not using the 5 in the 1st hole?

[VigorsTheGrey]

Been a good year so far!!

what is the ending balance? After deposits and wagers, how much profit so far?

[cj]

what is the ending balance? After deposits and wagers, how much profit so far?


The circled "wagers" and "winnings" makes it pretty clear to my eye. Deposits don't really matter.

[ReplayRandall]

The circled "wagers" and "winnings" makes it pretty clear to my eye. Deposits don't really matter.

I'm surprised the Coach only received $67.00 in Promo credits, after wagering $74.5K......A wee bit skimpy.

[VigorsTheGrey]

The circled "wagers" and "winnings" makes it pretty clear to my eye. Deposits don't really matter.

So he is up 18,584.16 Year to date? That is excellent! Kudos!

[SG4]

Been a good year so far!!

Keep up the good work! Question to coach & any other TVG users - the account summary data that you posted, do you keep your own records & do you compare the two of them? My YTD account summary from them on the wagers/winnings is terribly inaccurate, and I saw the same thing last year. The year end reports tab was spot on, but those aren't available until the year is over, would be nice if there was correct data ahead of time.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Nicely done coach. Dwarfs my couple grand in profit!

[biggestal99]

So he is up 18,584.16 Year to date? That is excellent! Kudos!

And that's fighting a huge take, that's really good and dwarfs my more modest winnings on the X.

Allan

[EMD4ME]

CoachV30, MY MAN !!!!!! Bottle that up and keep it going forever !!!!

[coachv30]

Coach, in your winning super ticket, what was your reasoning for not using the 7 in the fourth hole and not using the 5 in the 1st hole?

In an attempt to minimize ticket cost, I use only select ranked contenders in certaiin legs. That particular ticket was..

ABC / ABD / ABCDE / BCEFG

If the 5 or 6 show up in my top 2, I use them in all four legs due to the post positions. In this case, the 6 horse was my B. It's gotten to the point where the 6 is always in my tickets despite handicapping. It's starting to get that way too with the 7 at MHK. A lot of long prices from the 7 post.

[green80]

Occasionally someone will post here who claims to have access to the year-end statements that an ADW sends out to their customers. Less than 1% actually end up in the black.

This is a business where we are buying widgets for $1 and selling them for 70-83 cents.

This is a good point. While I know there are some winners, I would agree with the claims that 99% of the people who wager on any significant number of races, lose. It may not be in the ADW's best interest to disclose how high the percentage of losers is, however I think your 1% winners is about right.

Most people are not willing to put in the time and effort it takes to be a winning player. It takes years to learn enough about the game to have any kind of shot of becoming a winning player.