How about this for a Proposition match play bet

[formula_2002]

Say I lay a horse whose post time odds are 1-1 and it wins. I pay out the true win percentage of the horse as determined by, ( (1/(1odds+1)*(1-track take, say 15%) x 100 =42.5 units
If it loses you pay me the 42.5 units.

How does that sound to you?

[mannyberrios]

That's fair

[Magister Ludi]

Convert gross odds to net probability: 1/(1 + 1) * takeout = .5 *.85 =
.425 net win probability = p

1 - .425 = .575 loss probability = q

p – q = .425 - .575 = -.15

As you can see, your scenario will transfer the takeout from the tracks to formula 2002.

[Magister Ludi]

Convert gross odds to net probability: 1/(1 + 1) * (1 - takeout) = .5 *.85 =
.425 net win probability = p

1 - .425 = .575 loss probability = q

p – q = .425 - .575 = -.15

As you can see, your scenario will transfer the takeout from the tracks to formula 2002.

Error corrected as shown in red.

[formula_2002]

Convert gross odds to net probability: 1/(1 + 1) * takeout = .5 *.85 =
.425 net win probability = p

1 - .425 = .575 loss probability = q

p – q = .425 - .575 = -.15

As you can see, your scenario will transfer the takeout from the tracks to formula 2002.

How cleaver of me. :cool:

So lets change the payouts in accordance with your corrected representation.

Now how does that sound?

[Magister Ludi]

Now how does that sound?

Let's talk about rebates.

[formula_2002]

Let's talk about rebates.
Now you're putting pressure on me. :)

How about this?

After 100 plays, each player gets 1 additional unit for each successful play?

[formula_2002]

Now you're putting pressure on me. :)

How about this?

After 100 plays, each player gets 1 additional unit for each successful play?

Then again maybe the additional unit should be determined by

actual win/ expected wins.

[formula_2002]

Say I lay a horse whose post time odds are 1-1 and it wins. I pay out the true win percentage of the horse as determined by, ( (1/(1odds+1)*(1-track take, say 15%) x 100 =42.5 units
If it loses you pay me the 57.5 units.

How does that sound to you?


corrected

[formula_2002]

in that case

the only way to beat me is to beat the track take out and that is what this game is all about :eek:

track race# pgno 1-take* odds $1 ret fair % you win I win
sar 8 3 0.84 1.6 2.6 0.38 0.38
ind 8 2 0.84 1.2 2.2 0.45 0.45
del m 2 1 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.42 0.58
sar 9 2 0.84 1.65 2.65 0.38 0.38
ind 9 9 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.29 0.71
sar 10 1 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.29 0.71
del m 8 12 0.84 2.5 3.5 0.29 0.29
mnr 7 7 0.84 1.1 2.1 0.48 0.52
wood 7 7 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.42 0.58
wood 8 6 0.84 1 2 0.50 0.50
2.00 3.10
* say

[formula_2002]

in that case

the only way to beat me is to beat the track take out and that is what this game is all about :eek:

track race# pgno 1-take* odds $1 ret fair % you win I win
sar 8 3 0.84 1.6 2.6 0.38 0.38
ind 8 2 0.84 1.2 2.2 0.45 0.45
del m 2 1 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.42 0.58
sar 9 2 0.84 1.65 2.65 0.38 0.38
ind 9 9 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.29 0.71
sar 10 1 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.29 0.71
del m 8 12 0.84 2.5 3.5 0.29 0.29
mnr 7 7 0.84 1.1 2.1 0.48 0.52
wood 7 7 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.42 0.58
wood 8 6 0.84 1 2 0.50 0.50
2.00 3.10
* say


error. fair %'s to be x.84. i'll fix

[formula_2002]

race# pgno 1-take* odds $1 ret fair % you win I win
8 3 0.84 1.6 2.6 0.32 0.32
8 2 0.84 1.2 2.2 0.38 0.38
2 1 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.35 0.65
9 2 0.84 1.65 2.65 0.32 0.32
9 9 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.25 0.75
10 1 0.84 2.4 3.4 0.25 0.75
8 12 0.84 2.5 3.5 0.24 0.24
7 7 0.84 1.1 2.1 0.40 0.60
7 7 0.84 1.4 2.4 0.35 0.65
8 6 0.84 1 2 0.42 0.42
1.68 3.41
* say

[formula_2002]

ok, here is how I will do this.
I'll post my lay pick in my thread in the selections forum.
If I win the lay, I receive fair win odds %
if I lose I give 1-fair odds%. all calculated to a 16% track take out

[formula_2002]

:4: win


WIN POOL BET SIZE 63
"Gulfstream
Race
3

Post
1:57

MTP
1

$1 Exacta Pool
$31,268 "

[formula_2002]

after 4 days and 31 lay bets
I paid out $7.99
I received $8.77

all lay bets were against the favorite

18 of the 31 lay plays were posted in the "selections forum"
on those plays
I paid out $4.68
I received $4.41

[Fox]

Say I lay a horse whose post time odds are 1-1 and it wins. I pay out the true win percentage of the horse as determined by, ( (1/(1odds+1)*(1-track take, say 15%) x 100 =42.5 units
If it loses you pay me the 42.5 units.

How does that sound to you?

If you want to strip away the takeout, it would be simpler to just say (win pool amount on horse) / (total win pool). Same result and you don't need to mess with the takeout percent.

As far as your proposition is concerned, you would get slaughtered no doubt.

[formula_2002]

If you want to strip away the takeout, it would be simpler to just say (win pool amount on horse) / (total win pool). Same result and you don't need to mess with the takeout percent.

As far as your proposition is concerned, you would get slaughtered no doubt.

my results are based on the following.

ok, here is how I will do this.
I'll post my lay pick in my thread in the selections forum.
If I win the lay, I receive fair win odds %
if I lose I give 1-fair odds%. all calculated to a 16% track take out


for the purpose of this study I use a fixed take out because I don't want be inhibited by waiting for the final tote board dollars.


__________________
A lot easier to get lucky when house takes 1.41% from the payout rather than 15% to 25%"

[formula_2002]

forever analyzing and updating my results file I find the following play most interesting.
when the extra power factor bet size>=100, bet wps
if <100 lay wps


here is how I will do this.
I'll post my lay pick in my thread in the selections forum.
If I win the lay, I receive fair win odds %
if I lose I give 1-fair odds%. all calculated to a 16% track take out

picks are posted in the selections forum

__________________

[formula_2002]

I figured out a way to calculate the place and show probabilities (win of course is simple enough) for the winning pick regardless who comes in 2nd or 3rd. The payout will be dependent on who comes in 2nd or 3rd but the probabilities do not. (peer review welcomed :) )
I have it set up in excel, but I don't want the add effort required to implement it at this time, so I'll just lay the win bets