Who what where is THE definitive guide for SUPERFECTA plays?

[Conquer]

Evening All.

I have always been fascinated with superfecta plays and wagering, my racing buddy and me have always affectionately referred to it as breaking the superfecta code. I have been out of the game for a very long while but have recently begun getting back into it. I have not wagered as of yet because I am still observing and taking notes.

I cannot stop myself from noticing the amazing payouts superfectas pay. Especially with the Advent of the 10-cent superfecta option, it makes it somehow not necessarily alluring but easier to test superfecta handicapping strategies. As I'm sure most if not all of you serious players know there is always a difference between handicapping on paper and observing vs. Handicapping and actually spending money and playing. Somehow the outcome is different the majority of the time. A winner on paper is certainly not necessarily (or often) a winner when betting money. That is why however a 10-cent superfecta wagering makes a fantastic argument and avenue FOR testing strategies for the superfecta.

Which brings me to my question and the reason for my post; who what or where in your experience and your opinion is the definitive guide/study for the superfecta play?

Also let it be known that I have done what I i believe is a thorough search throughout this message board before posting this question but have not turned up anything of good use. Your help is of course greatly appreciated and I thank you in advance!

P.S. I'm not sure why but I very much enjoy talking about and discussing in depth the superfecta play. If any of you share my enthusiasm or just want to give me your first-hand experience or triumphant stories (or losses) regarding the superfecta, by all means share with me. I would love to have a discussion about the superfecta!! :)

[kingfin66]

There is a member of this board, raybo, who is a great advocate of the superfecta. He is also extremely knowledgeable about the bet. Do a search for his posts and enjoy the reading.

[green80]

I agree with you part about betting real money. You can have a method that you tested with 1000 plays on paper but when you start betting the same system with real money everything changes.

[mikekk]

Thakalos did a thread on betting supers that has helped me immensely

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=83249&highlight=superfecta

Mike

[citygoat]

I like a super key A/BCD and a part wheel AD/BC/BC/AD

[Conquer]

Thank you for the recommendations, I will definitely do a search on my leisure time tomorrow.

CITY GOAT - I am in the process of writing a paper on the superfecta (I look forward to posting it here for all interested to read and provide feedback) and one of the chapter topics deals with the factors, or as i say, "the ingredients" of what I have found IMO of course to be the most purposeful set of parameters when deciding on whether or not to pursue the Superfecta on any given race, and the natural next step in the process and IMO just as if not MORE SO important is the construction of the actual bet itself and doing it in a way as to being able to cover 5, MAYBE 6 horses, in the most practical and efficient way possible and of course in a way that makes it worth our while; .10 cent supers are fun to play with, but provide me with my 'field testing' BUT I set it up to where I am at the $1 level, and CITYGOAT, they way you suggested is in fact the best way I too have found to construct the bet. I do it 2 ways, the 1st KEY H1 WITH H2-H3-H4/ (H5) and 2ndly, I do a wheel, H1 H2 / H1 H2 H3 / H3 H4 H5 /H3 H4 H5 etc etc.

The 1st one I listed only cost $6 (4 horse KEY) and $24 (5 horses) for a $1 Super!!

Which is absolutely awesome! !

[Nitro]

I can appreciate your desire to attack one of the most interesting and value producing bets available. There are many things to consider when attempting to structure a Superfecta bet, and it all comes down to the number and consistent quality of the selections you make. Structuring your bet is of no real consequence if you only intend on playing 10 cent Supers.

As your base bet elevates not only does the structuring have to become lean and mean, your perception of the anticipated return has to also reach an improved level of accuracy. This is done by carefully examining the odds of all your selections at about 5 minutes to post. If the anticipated return doesn’t provide at least a 5/1 return on the cost of your bet then I would suggest a pass. Of course you’d like to be in a position where you can hit at least 1 out of every 4 Supers you play.

My preferred method of play is to come up with at least 2 Key (prime) selections and hook them up with 2 or 3 others. There are a number ways to structure a Super bet using this technique. The number of permutations that the structure provides determines the total amount to be bet. The more confidence you have the Keys the fewer the combinations are required. However, if the combined overall odds of the selections are high enough, it may justify going deeper with the Keys and creating more permutations (and cost of the bet).

I really don’t talk very often about the Super bet. I really prefer just playing it when I believe the value is there. Some may have noticed that I’ve posted my fair share of winning Supers right here on PA in the Selection forum. I think the best one actually came early one morning in June while I was playing Hong Kong and then a big stakes race in Japan came up: (See posts #24 & 29) : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=131814&page=2

Good luck with your Supers! :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

Exotic betting

By Steve Crist

Must have below. By Tom Walters

http://gamblersbookclub.com/exotic-wagering-formulas-731.html#.V8eyIus8KrU

[bruin95]

Exotic betting

By Steve Crist

Must have below. By Tom Walters

http://gamblersbookclub.com/exotic-wagering-formulas-731.html#.V8eyIus8KrU

That looks very interesting. I may just stroll down to the Gamblers General Store tomorrow and pick that up.

[Conquer]

NITRO - Your reply is exactly the sort of discussion I enjoy having when it comes to Superfectas!! I get that wonderful, warm feeling all over... i'm a freak, aren't I?

Nevertheless, I agree with your take on Supers, and I too have found it most preferable to make 1 or 2 separate wagers set up as a KEY w/ X X X totalling 4 horses but sometimes adding a 5th selection. Basically I choose 2 horses like as if I was choosing my best two likely in dutching to be on top as the KEY horse, 2 separate tickets of course, and then obviously 3 to 4 horses after the KEY. The 5th horse is the KEY from the other ticket.

On occassion i will set the ticket up with varying selections per placement and wheeling those selections. Doing so however becomes tricky quite quickly and can end up costing an exorbinant amount of money....

No thanks, i'll stick with the KEYing method.

P.S. to clarify, I do not meddle in the world of .10 cent Supers on any serious level of return expectations; I know better. I was just trying to make a point about how .10 cent supers are a good/fun way to play with ticket construction and to try new strategies and gaining familiarity with the superfecta wager.

You wrote its best to shoot for a 5/1 return, how can that and other values be computed or assumed? I thought there was mot a way to predict with any worth while accuracy what the payout on exotics woulf be???

Thank you Nitro AND RALPH. I eagerly look forward to reading the material you set in place for me. ;)

[teddy]

My dad the last five years of his life went into I consistent repeating mantra all day and all he could talk about was how to play the superfects and it drove us all about out of our minds. He would say you got to take the favorite was all with all of all. Please don't let yourself become crazy grandpa

[formula_2002]

Exotic betting

By Steve Crist

Must have below. By Tom Walters

http://gamblersbookclub.com/exotic-wagering-formulas-731.html#.V8eyIus8KrU

I just updated my results file with the race chart results for the 131st running of the Kentucky derby shown on page 20.
if anyone is interested go to my web page, click on results and the exotic tab should be displayed. you can actually change the odds to find the different expected returns for exacta, trifector and superfector for different races.
let me know if you find any errors