Race Ratings in TFUS

[PressThePace]

Does anyone know what the process is for determining the race ratings in the pp's of TFUS?

[cj]

https://timeformusblog.com/2013/07/06/race-ratings-added-to-timeformus-pps/


Based on the race entrants’ recent speed figures, the Race Rating is designed to approximate the average quality of the major contenders in the race.

[PressThePace]

Thank you CJ.

A few more questions...

Okay, if a horse comes out of a race with say, a 100 rating, does that figure represent all of the speed figures of that race averaged together or just the top 3 or 4?

[cj]

Thank you CJ.

A few more questions...

Okay, if a horse comes out of a race with say, a 100 rating, does that figure represent all of the speed figures of that race averaged together or just the top 3 or 4?

I honestly don't know the specifics, wasn't involved in the creation of that rating. I'm sure it doesn't use all the figures, or for that matter, all the horses in the race. I think each horse is rated individually using some of the figures for each, and then only the top five horses overall are used in the rating. But that is just going from memory from a few years ago. I doubt the exact formula would be given out but it can't hurt to ask. :)

[PressThePace]

I honestly don't know the specifics, wasn't involved in the creation of that rating. I'm sure it doesn't use all the figures, or for that matter, all the horses in the race. I think each horse is rated individually using some of the figures for each, and then only the top five horses overall are used in the rating. But that is just going from memory from a few years ago. I doubt the exact formula would be given out but it can't hurt to ask. :)

Thanks again. I appreciate the quick reply. I've been evaluating TFUS race ratings compared to Bris's. I'm liking the former.

[cj]

Thanks again. I appreciate the quick reply. I've been evaluating TFUS race ratings compared to Bris's. I'm liking the former.

Good to hear. In all honesty I barely gave them a glance for the first year or so, but I've found them pretty important and do now.

[bobphilo]

I honestly don't know the specifics, wasn't involved in the creation of that rating. I'm sure it doesn't use all the figures, or for that matter, all the horses in the race. I think each horse is rated individually using some of the figures for each, and then only the top five horses overall are used in the rating. But that is just going from memory from a few years ago. I doubt the exact formula would be given out but it can't hurt to ask. :)

Sounds similar to what Beyer does in his method for speed ratings, though it differs in that he's trying to project a speed figure rather than rating the race.
You can't use every horse since some horses go off form and finish way back and some are just too inconsistent.
Way back when I was doing my own speed figures and race ratings, I would also base them on the top 4 or 5 finishers. It's a lot of work but a lot more accurate than just looking at the race classification.

[cj]

Sounds similar to what Beyer does in his method for speed ratings, though it differs in that he's trying to project a speed figure rather than rating the race.
You can't use every horse since some horses go off form and finish way back and some are just too inconsistent.
Way back when I was doing my own speed figures and race ratings, I would also base them on the top 4 or 5 finishers. It's a lot of work but a lot more accurate than just looking at the race classification.

Interesting. When making the speed figures, I try to stick to the top 4 finishers. Occasionally a 2yo maiden race or something comes up and I'll have to look at any horse that had run before, but generally top 4 only for me.

[bobphilo]

Interesting. When making the speed figures, I try to stick to the top 4 finishers. Occasionally a 2yo maiden race or something comes up and I'll have to look at any horse that had run before, but generally top 4 only for me.
This is a very interesting subject. I generally used to limit myself to the top 4 too, and only brought in the 5th if one of the top 4 was a outlier or I had no data on. I did this in the pre PC days so it was a lot of work and could barely keep up with the NYRA circuit, but it was great training in handicapping. Lately I'm depending on the figures from TFUS since your methodology seems similar to mine.

Another subject that fascinates me is the relation of pace to final speed figures, a complex relationship that is often oversimplified. There is a lot of interesting data on this from animal and human sport studies on exercise physiology. Hope to post my theories on this when the topic comes up.

[PressThePace]

Good to hear. In all honesty I barely gave them a glance for the first year or so, but I've found them pretty important and do now.

I should qualify my statement by saying that I find the race ratings more relevant in mid to high level claiming events, experienced allowance events, and graded events for older horses. The ratings mean very little to me when lightly raced horses are participating.

[cj]

I should qualify my statement by saying that I find the race ratings more relevant in mid to high level claiming events, experienced allowance events, and graded events for older horses. The ratings mean very little to me when lightly raced horses are participating.

Certainly nothing wrong with doing that. Lightly raced horses are a tough part of the handicapping puzzle.

[cj]

Another subject that fascinates me is the relation of pace to final speed figures, a complex relationship that is often oversimplified. There is a lot of interesting data on this from animal and human sport studies on exercise physiology. Hope to post my theories on this when the topic comes up.

Look forward to that. I know it is a fluid thing for me. I'm not afraid to change the formulas as I learn more. One I remember off the top of my head is that horses running on a big open lead don't get much extra credit from me no matter how fast they run early. Anything above a length lead is ignored.

[bobphilo]

Look forward to that. I know it is a fluid thing for me. I'm not afraid to change the formulas as I learn more. One I remember off the top of my head is that horses running on a big open lead don't get much extra credit from me no matter how fast they run early. Anything above a length lead is ignored.

That's subject that I'm still studying. Unlike many, I'm reluctant to consider calling it a contested pace or duel just because 2 or more horse are just running next to each other unless the fractions are fast. True there is a tendency for the pace to be faster when more than one horse is going for the lead but that doesn't always make it so. Horses muscles don't know if another horse is next to them and produce more lactic acid just because another horse is running next to them.
Conversely when a horse goes out very fast early its muscles will still produce lactic acid whether it's alone or not.
However I'm still open to the idea that some horses don't relax when challenged and that could contribute to fatigue. Then again some competitive horses may produce more adrenaline when challenged and have more energy.
I guess it depends on the horse and it's hard to make a hard and fast rule. Lots of variables there.