Top Horse Analytics: 08/29/2016 SAR Picks/Results

[Augenj]

Race picks will be posted here;
- in order by 1st race start time at each track
- after late changes have been posted at Equibase or track web sites
- usually one hour or more before 1st race start time

Race results will be posted here;
- after race charts have been posted at Equibase
- with THA payoffs (wins, verticals, horizontals) highlighted in red

THA Active Tracks: DMR, GP, SAR
THA Inactive Tracks: AQU, BEL, CD, GPW, KEE, OP, SA, TAM

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.08.19a)

Race Cancellations (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/cancellations.html?SAP=TN)
Today's Scratches And Changes (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechanges.html?SAP=TN)
Exotic Wager Cost Calculator (http://www.winningponies.com/help/exotic-wager-calculator.html?SAP=TN)
Full Charts (Equibase) (http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/index.html?SAP=TN)
Race Results (THA) (http://www.vegassportscontrol.net/forum/40-race-results/)

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

08/29/16, SAR, Race 1, 1.00 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (1-3), Pick 5 Races (1-5) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Pass the Dice [2-1] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny FEC
097.8831 :1: Geaux Mets [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. JL
094.2461 :3: Erik the Red [7/2] Santana. Jr. R / Sharp Joe S
093.2101 :2: Runs With Bulls [9/2] Castellano J / Amoss Thomas M. TW
089.7849 4 Howl [10-1] Torres J / Reynolds Patrick L.
088.1333 5 Kowboy Boots [20-1] Franco M / Sciacca Gary
*Scratch* 7 Street Chief [12-1] Arroyo A S / Persaud Randi

08/29/16, SAR, Race 2, 1.33 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (2-4) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (2-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Southern Union [8-1] Saez L / Brown Bruce R. SF
097.8880 :5: Foreset [6-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. L
097.0379 :10: Two Down One to Go [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Asmussen Steven M.
096.6084 :2: Mascarello [4-1] Ortiz J L / Bond H. James JWC
096.5014 8 Risky Sour [12-1] Luzzi M J / Kelly Patrick J.
096.4190 9 Brooklyn Speights [6-1] Geroux F / Ward Wesley A. TE
094.4558 11 Ezra [15-1] Santana. Jr. R / Zito Nicholas P.
092.5308 1 Rapt [5-1] Franco M / Ribaudo Robert
089.8893 6 Space Ranger [30-1] Torres J / Reynolds Patrick L.
088.7068 7 Vino Blanco(b-) [20-1] Arroyo A S / Bush Thomas M.
085.8508 4 Purim Party [30-1] Carmouche K / Close Kristin
084.8801 3 Zio Elio [20-1] Cancel E / Schosberg Richard E.
*Scratch* 16 No Tanx Blue Chip [4-1] Rider TBA / Levine Bruce N.
*Scratch* 15 Investigator [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Servis Jason
*Scratch* 14 There Goes Ben [6-1] Arroyo A S / Rodriguez Rudy R.
*Scratch* 13 Kangaroo Style [10-1] Franco M / Nevin Michelle

08/29/16, SAR, Race 3, 2.06 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $85,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (3-5), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Firsthand Report [9/5] Velazquez J R / Pletcher Todd A. J
097.0874 :4: Lady of Victory [5/2] Alvarado J / Mott William I. SW
096.6578 :1: Washington's Song [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Brown Chad C. TEC
094.2029 :6: True Charm [6-1] Lezcano J / Ferraro James W.
093.1102 5 Enchanteresse (IRE) [4-1] Franco M / Proctor Thomas F. FL
090.8004 2 Little Stella [12-1] Carmouche K / Merryman Elizabeth M.

08/29/16, SAR, Race 4, 2.40 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.13.04 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (4-6), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :7: Ring Knocker [5/2] Castellano J / Dutrow Anthony W. C
097.2223 :3: Reckless Humor [4-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R.
095.8791 :4: Seeking Gold [7/2] Davis D / McPeek Kenneth G.
095.6394 :1: Madame Maybry [10-1] Ortiz J L / Toscano. Jr. John T. JEW
095.5302 6 Ervsayslethergo [6-1] Santana. Jr. R / Asmussen Steven M. F
094.5657 2 Ducasa [9/2] Geroux F / Asmussen Steven M. SL
093.8772 5 Egyptian Rose [8-1] Franco M / Falcone. Jr. Robert N.

08/29/16, SAR, Race 5, 3.14 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (5-7), Pick 6 Races (5-10) - Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Preferred Outcome [3-1] Geroux F / Ferraro M. Anthony FEC
097.9056 :12: Awsum Roar [4-1] Velazquez J R / Ward Wesley A. L
097.1711 :8: Speightful Kitten [5/2] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda JT
094.4995 :9: Jewel Can Disco [15-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Gullo Gary P.
094.2213 11 Shiraz [8-1] Carmouche K / Maker Michael J. W
093.9554 3 Conquest Prankster [4-1] Lezcano J / Casse Mark E. S
093.6742 7 Outrageous Bet [15-1] Santana. Jr. R / Contessa Gary C.
093.1550 10 Rule Number One [20-1] Franco M / Hills Timothy A.
086.6442 4 Tiz Wicked(b+) [15-1] Davis D / Schosberg Richard E.
081.7842 6 It Must Be Nice [12-1] Luzzi M J / Brown Bruce R.
*Scratch* 5 Shade Seeker [5-1] DeCarlo C P / Hushion Michael E.
*Scratch* 2 Bats Cleanup [20-1] Carmouche K / Sciacca Gary

08/29/16, SAR, Race 6, 3.48 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 CLAIMING. Purse $51,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (6-8) - Grand Slam Races (6-9), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :1: Sparkle Factor (IRE) [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Clement Christophe SC
099.6363 :4: Miss Aja Brown [4-1] Ortiz J L / Hushion Michael E. J
099.2778 :9: Miss Meteor [7/2] Geroux F / Pletcher Todd A. TL
098.9464 :2: Frozen Hannah [9/2] Saez L / Sharp Joe
097.1228 5 Saturday Bliss [12-1] Franco M / Weaver George EW
096.9662 7 Flick of an Eye [12-1] Santana. Jr. R / Gargan Danny F
095.4981 8 Morethanjusthello [10-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J.
094.4486 3 Resilient One [8-1] Carmouche K / Gargan Danny
*Scratch* 6 Mama Joyce [3-1] Saez L / Sharp Joe
*Scratch* 10 Game Girl [5/2] Ortiz J L / Rice Linda

08/29/16, SAR, Race 7, 4.24 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (7-9) - Pick 4 (.50) Races (7-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :5: Hamptons Holiday [3-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Rodriguez Rudy R. SFEC
099.8061 :1: Clutch Cargo [6-1] Ortiz J L / Hushion Michael E. T
099.2485 :9: Cespedes [8-1] Castellano J / Rodriguez Rudy R.
099.0004 :2: Ides of Arch [10-1] Velazquez J R / Gyarmati Leah J
098.3230 6 Catch a Cab [7/2] Geroux F / Casse Mark E.
097.6979 4 Calculated Risker [6-1] Santana. Jr. R / Contessa Gary C.
097.2337 7 Toga Tosconova [20-1] Saez L / Gyarmati Leah
097.1672 8 Callant [20-1] Lezcano J / Magnuson Arthur W
095.9766 10 Pat On the Back [9/2] Davis D / McPeek Kenneth G. L
095.1051 3 Crash Mountain [20-1] Torres J / Contessa Gary C.
*Scratch* 1a Haul Anchor [6-1] Alvarado J / McLaughlin Kiaran P.
*Scratch* 12 Scatoga [20-1] Davis D / Goodwin Gabriel
*Scratch* 11 Tellmeafookystory [8-1] Castellano J / Schettino Dominick

08/29/16, SAR, Race 8, 5.02 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Pick 3 Races (8-10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :3: Grand Sky [3-1] Lezcano J / Casse Mark E. C
098.6732 :1: Saratoga Giro [7/2] Flores J / Barrow Paul W.
097.9656 :2: Heated Verdict [8-1] Saez L / Weaver George SE
095.7219 :5: Go Go Lucky(b+) [12-1] Castellano J / Maker Michael J.
095.2448 8 Fearthefalcon [5-1] Franco M / Klesaris Steve
094.7258 11 Black Tide [12-1] Cancel E / Nevin Michelle W
093.9545 7 Pine Ridge Forest [30-1] Geroux F / Englehart Jeremiah C. TL
092.4406 9 Freedom Seven [15-1] Velazquez J R / Albertrani Thomas JF
091.3583 10 Cuckoo's Saloon(b+) [30-1] Bravo J / Quartarolo Anthony T.
091.2263 12 Francis Freud [20-1] Luzzi M J / Metivier Richard
*Scratch* 6 Prophet's Cat [15-1] Santana. Jr. R / Sciacca Gary
*Scratch* 4 Bajan Summer [8-1] Ortiz J L / Sciacca Gary
*Scratch* 16 Bluegrass Prevails [5/2] Ortiz J L / Gullo Gary P.
*Scratch* 15 Chang's Secret [8-1] Ortiz. Jr. I / Dini Michael
*Scratch* 14 Humboldt N Frost [12-1] Bravo J / Englehart Jeremiah C.
*Scratch* 13 Lil Bitty Road [30-1] Perez L A / Collins Timothy M.

08/29/16, SAR, Race 9, 5.40 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :6: Hammers Vision [2-1] Velazquez J R / Lynch Brian A. JTEW
096.0534 :2: Noble Quality(b+) [3-1] Bravo J / Clement Christophe
095.9498 :7: Our Way [7/2] Ortiz J L / Bond H. James FC
094.8624 :4: Mighty Mo [4-1] Alvarado J / Mott William I. SL
094.3846 5 Conquest Big E [8-1] Lezcano J / Casse Mark E.
094.1676 1 Dragon Bay [6-1] Geroux F / Simon Stuart C.
*Scratch* 3 Uncle Vinny [7/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Pletcher Todd A.

08/29/16, SAR, Race 10, 6.14 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10)
--------------------------------------------------------
Rating Pgm# Horse [M/L] Jockey / Trainer FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------------
100.0000 :12: Helluva Choice [5/2] Ortiz. Jr. I / Asmussen Steven M. SFEC
098.0238 :2: Johnny Obvious [4-1] Saez L / Moquett Ron W
096.6293 :3: Albert Charles [6-1] Geroux F / Wilkes Ian R.
096.5020 :9: Blue Xanadu [12-1] Ortiz J L / Guillot Eric J. J
095.0852 4 Ecliptical Jack [8-1] Franco M / Baker Charlton T
094.3994 5 Discreet Encounter [8-1] Lezcano J / Kimmel John C.
094.3492 10 Irish Marauder [3-1] Cancel E / Weaver George
094.3141 7 Tiz Always His Way(b+) [10-1] Santana. Jr. R / Schettino Dominick L
094.0011 11 Outstanding Gio [20-1] Carmouche K / Ryerson James T.
093.2436 8 Over Promised [6-1] Davis D / Hushion Michael E.
*Scratch* 6 Distorted Admiral [12-1] Davis J A / Martin Carlos F.
*Scratch* 1a Perplexed [6-1] Saez L / Lukas D. Wayne
*Scratch* 13 True Valor [8-1] Alvarado J / Desormeaux J. Keith
*Scratch* 1 Mabrouk(b+) [6-1] Santana. Jr. R / Terranova. II John P.

[Augenj]

END OF PICKS

RESULTS FOLLOW

[Augenj]

TOP HORSE ANALYTICS (v4.16.08.19a)

Race Results
WPS Takeout at SAR is 16%, Breakage is $0.10

Base Factor FLAGS
C Best Closer
E Best Earnings
F Best Finish
J Best Jockey
L Best Lead Pack
S Best Speed
T Best Trainer
W Best Workouts

horse name(b+) - Blinkers On
horse name(b-) - Blinkers Off

08/29/16, SAR, Race 1, 1:00 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :6: Pass the Dice [2-1 * ] FEC 2nd - 2.80 2.10
097.8831 :1: Geaux Mets [5/2] JL 3rd - 2.20
094.2461 :3: Erik the Red [7/2] S
093.2101 :2: Runs With Bulls [9/2] TW 1st - 6.90 3.00 2.30
089.7849 4 Howl [10-1] 4th
088.1333 5 Kowboy Boots [20-1]
*Scratch* 7 Street Chief [12-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 2, 1:33 ET
1 1/16M [Inner Turf] 1.39.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :12: Southern Union [8-1] SF 3rd - 3.50
097.8880 :5: Foreset [6-1] L
097.0379 :10: Two Down One to Go [7/2] 4th
096.6084 :2: Mascarello [4-1 * ] JWC 1st - 5.30 .40 2.60
096.5014 8 Risky Sour [12-1]
096.4190 9 Brooklyn Speights [6-1] TE
094.4558 11 Ezra [15-1]
092.5308 1 Rapt [5-1] 2nd - 6.90 4.10
089.8893 6 Space Ranger [30-1]
088.7068 7 Vino Blanco(b-) [20-1]
085.8508 4 Purim Party [30-1]
084.8801 3 Zio Elio [20-1]
*Scratch* 16 No Tanx Blue Chip [4-1]
*Scratch* 15 Investigator [3-1]
*Scratch* 14 There Goes Ben [6-1]
*Scratch* 13 Kangaroo Style [10-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 3, 2:06 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $85,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :3: Firsthand Report [9/5 * ] J 1st - 6.40 3.80 2.70
097.0874 :4: Lady of Victory [5/2] SW
096.6578 :1: Washington's Song [7/2] TEC 3rd - 3.00
094.2029 :6: True Charm [6-1] 4th
093.1102 5 Enchanteresse (IRE) [4-1] FL 2nd - 6.90 4.50
090.8004 2 Little Stella [12-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 4, 2:40 ET
6 1/2F [Dirt] 1.13.04 CLAIMING. Purse $42,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :7: Ring Knocker [5/2 * ] C 1st - 5.90 3.50 2.40
097.2223 :3: Reckless Humor [4-1] 3rd - 2.70
095.8791 :4: Seeking Gold [7/2] 2nd - 5.70 4.40
095.6394 :1: Madame Maybry [10-1] JEW
095.5302 6 Ervsayslethergo [6-1] F 4th
094.5657 2 Ducasa [9/2] SL
093.8772 5 Egyptian Rose [8-1]
$2 DD 20.60

08/29/16, SAR, Race 5, 3:14 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :1: Preferred Outcome [3-1] FEC 2nd - 5.00 2.80
097.9056 :12: Awsum Roar [4-1] L 1st - 11.20 5.60 3.50
097.1711 :8: Speightful Kitten [5/2 * ] JT 3rd - 2.50
094.4995 :9: Jewel Can Disco [15-1]
094.2213 11 Shiraz [8-1] W 4th
093.9554 3 Conquest Prankster [4-1] S
093.6742 7 Outrageous Bet [15-1]
093.1550 10 Rule Number One [20-1]
086.6442 4 Tiz Wicked(b+) [15-1]
081.7842 6 It Must Be Nice [12-1]
*Scratch* 5 Shade Seeker [5-1]
*Scratch* 2 Bats Cleanup [20-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 6, 3:48 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 CLAIMING. Purse $51,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :1: Sparkle Factor (IRE) [5/2 * ] SC 1st - 4.60 3.20 2.40
099.6363 :4: Miss Aja Brown [4-1] J 4th
099.2778 :9: Miss Meteor [7/2] TL
098.9464 :2: Frozen Hannah [9/2] 2nd - 4.60 3.50
097.1228 5 Saturday Bliss [12-1] EW 3rd - 4.70
096.9662 7 Flick of an Eye [12-1] F
095.4981 8 Morethanjusthello [10-1]
094.4486 3 Resilient One [8-1]
*Scratch* 6 Mama Joyce [3-1]
*Scratch* 10 Game Girl [5/2]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 7, 4:24 ET
7F [Dirt] 1.20.02 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $73,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :5: Hamptons Holiday [3-1] SFEC 2nd - 4.20 3.10
099.8061 :1: Clutch Cargo [6-1] T
099.2485 :9: Cespedes [8-1]
099.0004 :2: Ides of Arch [10-1] J
098.3230 6 Catch a Cab [7/2 * ] 4th
097.6979 4 Calculated Risker [6-1] 3rd - 5.50
097.2337 7 Toga Tosconova [20-1]
097.1672 8 Callant [20-1] W
095.9766 10 Pat On the Back [9/2] L 1st - 12.20 5.20 3.50
095.1051 3 Crash Mountain [20-1]
*Scratch* 1a Haul Anchor [6-1]
*Scratch* 12 Scatoga [20-1]
*Scratch* 11 Tellmeafookystory [8-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 8, 5:02 ET
5 1/2F [Turf] 1.00.02 ALLOWANCE. Purse $75,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :3: Grand Sky [3-1 * ] C 1st - 5.40 3.70 2.70
098.6732 :1: Saratoga Giro [7/2]
097.9656 :2: Heated Verdict [8-1] SE 3rd - 3.50
095.7219 :5: Go Go Lucky(b+) [12-1] *SCR*
095.2448 8 Fearthefalcon [5-1] 4th
094.7258 11 Black Tide [12-1] W
093.9545 7 Pine Ridge Forest [30-1] TL 2nd - 10.80 5.80
092.4406 9 Freedom Seven [15-1] JF
091.3583 10 Cuckoo's Saloon(b+) [30-1] *SCR*
091.2263 12 Francis Freud [20-1] *SCR*
*Scratch* 6 Prophet's Cat [15-1]
*Scratch* 4 Bajan Summer [8-1]
*Scratch* 16 Bluegrass Prevails [5/2]
*Scratch* 15 Chang's Secret [8-1]
*Scratch* 14 Humboldt N Frost [12-1]
*Scratch* 13 Lil Bitty Road [30-1]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 9, 5:40 ET
1M [Inner Turf] 1.33.01 STAKES. Purse $100,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Firm
100.0000 :6: Hammers Vision [2-1 * ] JTEW 2nd - 4.00 3.00
096.0534 :2: Noble Quality(b+) [3-1] 4th
095.9498 :7: Our Way [7/2] FC 1st - 8.10 3.90 2.60
094.8624 :4: Mighty Mo [4-1] SL 3rd - 3.70
094.3846 5 Conquest Big E [8-1]
094.1676 1 Dragon Bay [6-1] DQ'd from 3rd to 5th
*Scratch* 3 Uncle Vinny [7/2]

08/29/16, SAR, Race 10, 6:14 ET
6F [Dirt] 1.08.00 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $50,000.
-------------------------------------------------------- Fast
100.0000 :12: Helluva Choice [5/2 * ] SFEC wide trip, 4th to 8th
098.0238 :2: Johnny Obvious [4-1] W 1st - 15.20 7.30 4.10
096.6293 :3: Albert Charles [6-1]
096.5020 :9: Blue Xanadu [12-1] J
095.0852 4 Ecliptical Jack [8-1] T
094.3994 5 Discreet Encounter [8-1] 3rd - 8.30
094.3492 10 Irish Marauder [3-1]
094.3141 7 Tiz Always His Way(b+) [10-1] L 4th
094.0011 11 Outstanding Gio [20-1]
093.2436 8 Over Promised [6-1] 2nd - 7.70 4.50
*Scratch* 6 Distorted Admiral [12-1]
*Scratch* 1a Perplexed [6-1]
*Scratch* 13 True Valor [8-1]
*Scratch* 1 Mabrouk(b+) [6-1]

[Augenj]

END OF RESULTS