Horses clobbered on the win end

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Have you noticed the many horses who are bet very heavily in the win pools for no justification based on the past performances. Example yesterdays finale at Delaware Park had the ML favorite entry #1 off at 9/5 as the #3 Spook AA a 10/1 ML was bet heavily in the race off @ 6/5 and quit after on the lead finishing a well beaten 3rd as the favorite won by 8 3/4 lengths returning an $8 double.

I have seen this pattern repeat it self countless times. Another example was a race at Saratoga a few days ago when a first time starter trained by an Arlington Park trainer ( with very fast works) was bombed at the windows and never raised a hoof while Chad Brown has a well prepared firster won the race easily at 7/2.
It seems that the "TOO GOOD" heavily bet unknowns are a bust more often then not as it pays to open your eyes as to the betting frenzy taking place in these races and copper the over bet unknown.

[Grits]

Ingrid Mason, I did not get. Not at all. Chad's horse, a gift at the price, won by six, while Rudy, Tap, and Lukas, followed. Then, Ingrid and other also rans.

[cj]

Have you noticed the many horses who are bet very heavily in the win pools for no justification based on the past performances. Example yesterdays finale at Delaware Park had the ML favorite entry #1 off at 9/5 as the #3 Spook AA a 10/1 ML was bet heavily in the race off @ 6/5 and quit after on the lead finishing a well beaten 3rd as the favorite won by 8 3/4 lengths returning an $8 double.

I have seen this pattern repeat it self countless times. Another example was a race at Saratoga a few days ago when a first time starter trained by an Arlington Park trainer ( with very fast works) was bombed at the windows and never raised a hoof while Chad Brown has a well prepared firster won the race easily at 7/2.
It seems that the "TOO GOOD" heavily bet unknowns are a bust more often then not as it pays to open your eyes as to the betting frenzy taking place in these races and copper the over bet unknown.

Wasn't the Delaware race Arabians?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Wasn't the Delaware race Arabians?


Yes it was Arabians and I know the pools must have been smaller.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Ingrid Mason, I did not get. Not at all. Chad's horse, a gift at the price, won by six, while Rudy, Tap, and Lukas, followed. Then, Ingrid and other also rans.

A 20/1 morning line.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I remember many years ago Paul Cornman told my cousin about a horse, I believe a second time starter ( not sure) was a 30/1 Ml and got clobbered to 2/1 and won easily, rare do you see this bet down from the high Ml at the NYRA tracks...they sure knew something but never got rewarded with the price!!!

[Grits]

A 20/1 morning line.

I know. They must've had an armored truck following the horse's van. :faint:

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I know. They must've had an armored truck following the horse's van. :faint:

Ha ha!!

[EMD4ME]

I remember many years ago Paul Cornman told my cousin about a horse, I believe a second time starter ( not sure) was a 30/1 Ml and got clobbered to 2/1 and won easily, rare do you see this bet down from the high Ml at the NYRA tracks...they sure knew something but never got rewarded with the price!!!

I miss Paul....Hope he is well. Full disclosure, never met him/interacted with him. Saw him with Harvey Pack and heard about his note taking (live through bonocs/with his team of note takers).

Love it.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I miss Paul....Hope he is well. Full disclosure, never met him/interacted with him. Saw him with Harvey Pack and heard about his note taking (live through bonocs/with his team of note takers).

Love it.

Met him a few times and I found him to be a gentleman, and a well informed player.

[EMD4ME]

Met him a few times and I found him to be a gentleman, and a well informed player.

Last I heard, he moved to Vegas for rebates. Could be misinformation but happy for him.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

That's what I had heard. Those were the days with Harvey, Paul, John Pricci and Tony DeMucci as guests on Harveys shows ha ha and the clocker Louie Marro

[pandy]

I've found that generally speaking, horses that are bet down significantly below their morning line show a larger negative ROI than horses that go off at or around their morning line. This of course can vary by track depending on how good the ML is, but across the spectrum, this seems to hold up. Ray2000 had some harness stats that showed that it holds up with harness racing too.

And it makes sense,when you think about it. If the ML is 10-1, unless the line is way off, obviously the horse can't look that good on paper. If the horse goes off at 5-2, sure, they win sometimes, but, over the long run, horses that go off at 5-2 that are 5-2 on the ML will show a much better ROI than horses that go off at 5-2 that were higher than 5-2 on the ML. Amazingly, many bettors believe just the opposite, that it's some sort of "inside money" and that these bet downs are good bets, but although that may be true sometimes, in the long run, these are underlays, and bad bets.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Seven Forty Seven was the name of the recent debut runner bet down from 20 to 1 ....down to 2 to 1.....the horse had a superior work tab and looked fantastic in the post parade and warming up that Saturday Aug 19th 2016.

Maybe connections decided not to pull the trigger today, who knows...at the low odds and all...we'll see more from this one no doubt, and probably real soon too....follow this one....who knows...odds may be 4 to 1 next time out....

[pandy]

Seven Forty Seven was the name of the recent debut runner bet down from 20 to 1 ....down to 2 to 1.....the horse had a superior work tab and looked fantastic in the post parade and warming up that Saturday Aug 19th 2016.

Maybe connections decided not to pull the trigger today, who knows...at the low odds and all...we'll see more from this one no doubt, and probably real soon too....follow this one....who knows...odds may be 4 to 1 next time out....


I watched the 2 furlong workout from the OBS sales, these are available on the OBS website. I think it was 2 furlongs in :20.3. I did pick that horse off its blistering workouts at Arlington, and the fact that they shipped in from Chicago. Ingrid Mason had only shipped one other horse in this meet, so you know they thought the horse could run. But many fast working horses have proven to be nothing more than a morning glory. The morning line was way off but sometimes workouts are missing on the proofs that the morning line maker has to work off of.

[sammy the sage]

Well I've seen 20/1 go off at 6/5 for no reason...and WIN by 6 +...esp. in S.Fla...I just step aside and watch...

[VigorsTheGrey]

I watched the 2 furlong workout from the OBS sales, these are available on the OBS website. I think it was 2 furlongs in :20.3. I did pick that horse off its blistering workouts at Arlington, and the fact that they shipped in from Chicago. Ingrid Mason had only shipped one other horse in this meet, so you know they thought the horse could run. But many fast working horses have proven to be nothing more than a morning glory. The morning line was way off but sometimes workouts are missing on the proofs that the morning line maker has to work off of.
The horse that won the race was a decent one....there was no disgrace in this loss...they all can't win on the same day...hope he surfaces soon...he kind of grabbed my interest...I hope he is not just another morning glory....

[traynor]

Well I've seen 20/1 go off at 6/5 for no reason...and WIN by 6 +...esp. in S.Fla...I just step aside and watch...

I saw something similar happen on one of my first trips to Aqueduct. It was really strange. As the horse approached the finish line, the crowd was chanting "Oscar ... Oscar ... Oscar ..."

[thaskalos]

I saw something similar happen on one of my first trips to Aqueduct. It was really strange. As the horse approached the finish line, the crowd was chanting "Oscar ... Oscar ... Oscar ..."

It happened exactly like that when I found myself at Arlington Park, years ago. And then I looked around...and saw that Jack Klugman was in the Winners Circle.

[AltonKelsey]

Don't know what the stats are, but I've never been a fan of 20-1 ML's going off at shortish odds.

Bad things seem to happen to the vast majority, like not finishing first.

Some of you database guys should be able to run a scan and see what the stats are.

[cj]

Don't know what the stats are, but I've never been a fan of 20-1 ML's going off at shortish odds.

Bad things seem to happen to the vast majority, like not finishing first.

Some of you database guys should be able to run a scan and see what the stats are.

I've seen plenty win, but usually just at tracks where the morning line isn't very good and it was an obvious mistake.