Travers field

[Grits]

From David Grening at DRF for that big race coming up on Saturday, here in Saratoga.

Exaggerator draws post 7, made 3-1 morning line favorite for Travers

SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. _ Preakness and Haskell Invitational winner Exaggerator drew post seven and was installed as the 3-1 morning-line favorite in a 14-horse field set to run 1 1-4 miles in Saturday's Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes at Saratoga.

The 14 horse field equals the largest since 1977.

Exaggerator, trained by Keith Desormeaux, will seek to become the first horse to win the Preakness, Haskell and Travers since Point Given did it in 2001. Exaggerator will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux.

Connect, winner of the Curlin Stakes is the second choice on Travis Stone's morning line. He drew post 10 and will be ridden by John Velazquez.

American Freedom, runner-up to Exaggerator to in the Haskell, drew post 2 and was made the 6-1 third choice. He is one of two horses trainer Bob Baffert is shipping in for the Travers. Arrogate, winner of three straight races, is the 10-1 co-fourth choice along with Destin and Governor Malibu.

Belmont Stakes winner Creator drew post 12 and was installed as the 15-1 eighth choice. His stablemate, Gun Runner, drew the extreme outside in the 14-horse field.

The Travers will be race 11 on a 13-race card that begins at 11:35 a.m. and includes five other Grade 1 races as well as the return of Lady Eli in the Grade 2, $400,000 Ballston Spa Stakes.

The Travers will be broadcast live on NBC in a 90-minute broadcast beginning at 4:30 p.m. Eastern. Post time for the Travers is scheduled for 5:44 p.m.

Arrogate 10-1 (Mike Smith)
American Freedom 6-1 (Rafael Bejarano)
My Man Sam 20-1 (Manny Franco)
Governor Malibu 12-1 (Joel Rosario)
Forever d'Oro 30-1 (Luis Saez)
Anaximandros 50-1 (Leonel Reyes)
Exaggerator 3-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
Destin 10-1 (Javier Castellano)
Gift Box 12-1 (Junior Alvarado)
Connect 4-1 (John Velazquez)
Majesto 30-1 (Ricardo Santana, Jr.)
Creator 15-1 (Irad Ortiz, Jr.)
Laoban 15-1 (Jose Ortiz)
Gun Runner 10-1 (Florent Geroux)

[mannyberrios]

If the track is fast, who wins?

[thespaah]

Full gate. I wonder how many will scratch.....

[Mc990]

Exaggerator and both Baffert's will probably be underlaid big time. Governor Malibu has some darkened form and should be ready to break through. He should trip out in here. Gotta use Destin as his TB derby is still the standard for this crop. Will he ever get back to it...

Using these 2 with the three chad brown horses

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Love to see a full field for the Midsummer Derby.

[Rex Phinney]

Exaggerator and both Baffert's will probably be underlaid big time. Governor Malibu has some darkened form and should be ready to break through. He should trip out in here. Gotta use Destin as his TB derby is still the standard for this crop. Will he ever get back to it...

Using these 2 with the three chad brown horses

What exactly would cause you to think that for the first time in his training career Todd Pletcher is going to get a 3YO (or any horse for that matter) to peak a second time? Instead of betting Destin take your money out in the street and burn it.

[Robert Fischer]

American Freedom surprised me last time with a very big performance.

[Mc990]

What exactly would cause you to think that for the first time in his training career Todd Pletcher is going to get a 3YO (or any horse for that matter) to peak a second time? Instead of betting Destin take your money out in the street and burn it.

Ok, I'll bite...

1- With a good trip, he doesn't even need to run back to that race to win

2- Would you have said the same thing before the Belmont?

3- Where in my post did I say I was betting Destin to win? I make GM the most likely winner, all things considered. I'll be protecting with Destin and the other 3.

4- You sound like a bitter Pletcher hater who would rather fuel a false narrative than look at the facts

[cj]

14 and plenty of speed certainly shouldn't hurt Exaggerator.

[SuperPickle]

14 and plenty of speed certainly shouldn't hurt Exaggerator.

Honestly I'm rooting for him to get a grade one on a fast track just to end that whole debate. You'd of thunk his derby would have but it hasn't .

[Rex Phinney]

Ok, I'll bite...

1- With a good trip, he doesn't even need to run back to that race to win

2- Would you have said the same thing before the Belmont?

3- Where in my post did I say I was betting Destin to win? I make GM the most likely winner, all things considered. I'll be protecting with Destin and the other 3.

4- You sound like a bitter Pletcher hater who would rather fuel a false narrative than look at the facts

1. He will need a career best to beat a Preakness/ Haskell winner & Derby place horse make no mistake.

2. Yes

3. Great it's your money.

4. Think what you want, fact is noone has more horses flash brilliance in the early spring of their 3YO year and are never heard from again than Pletcher.

I just can't take your post serious seeing as you have pointed to a G2 at Tampa as the "Standard" for a 3YO crop.

I for one think Gun Runner is overdue to get the job done in one of these big races.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I usually don't question MLs, but how do these add up?

Is it the sheer amount of 10/1s to 15/1s, and number of horses that makes up for the 3/1 favorite?

Either way, I love this field. This is a no holds barred type event in which one can see just about anybody winning.

My Man Sam at 50/1 with a race that looks like it should have some pace? He was 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby as a wise guy horse. Was his 2nd to Tale of Verve that bad last out? Was his finish in front of Creator in the Derby that bad?

[NTamm1215]

I usually don't question MLs, but how do these add up?

Is it the sheer amount of 10/1s to 15/1s, and number of horses that makes up for the 3/1 favorite?

Either way, I love this field. This is a no holds barred type event in which one can see just about anybody winning.

My Man Sam at 50/1 with a race that looks like it should have some pace? He was 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby as a wise guy horse. Was his 2nd to Tale of Verve that bad last out? Was his finish in front of Creator in the Derby that bad?

That's not the correct morning line. This is:

Arrogate 10-1 (Mike Smith)
American Freedom 6-1 (Rafael Bejarano)
My Man Sam 20-1 (Manny Franco)
Governor Malibu 12-1 (Joel Rosario)
Forever d'Oro 30-1 (Luis Saez)
Anaximandros 50-1 (Leonel Reyes)
Exaggerator 3-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
Destin 10-1 (Javier Castellano)
Gift Box 12-1 (Junior Alvarado)
Connect 4-1 (John Velazquez)
Majesto 30-1 (Ricardo Santana, Jr.)
Creator 15-1 (Irad Ortiz, Jr.)
Laoban 15-1 (Jose Ortiz)
Gun Runner 10-1 (Florent Geroux)

[Grits]

Nick, tell Travis I'm sorry. I cut and pasted this straight from DRF. Maybe PA or Cj can correct my original post. :blush:

That's not the correct morning line. This is:

Arrogate 10-1 (Mike Smith)
American Freedom 6-1 (Rafael Bejarano)
My Man Sam 20-1 (Manny Franco)
Governor Malibu 12-1 (Joel Rosario)
Forever d'Oro 30-1 (Luis Saez)
Anaximandros 50-1 (Leonel Reyes)
Exaggerator 3-1 (Kent Desormeaux)
Destin 10-1 (Javier Castellano)
Gift Box 12-1 (Junior Alvarado)
Connect 4-1 (John Velazquez)
Majesto 30-1 (Ricardo Santana, Jr.)
Creator 15-1 (Irad Ortiz, Jr.)
Laoban 15-1 (Jose Ortiz)
Gun Runner 10-1 (Florent Geroux)

[NTamm1215]

Nick, tell Travis I'm sorry. I cut and pasted this straight from DRF. Maybe PA or Cj can correct my original post. :blush:

No worries at all! People have (erroneously) said much worse about his lines!

[sammy the sage]

No worries at all! People have (erroneously) said much worse about his lines!

Wrong....they've been correct....I would bet they'll be AT least 4 to 5 horses in here BELOW 10/1 at post time...which means THIS line...not very accurate as well or at all...

[OTM Al]

Wrong....they've been correct....I would bet they'll be AT least 4 to 5 horses in here BELOW 10/1 at post time...which means THIS line...not very accurate as well or at all...

This is a silly statement. He has 3 under 10-1 already and 3 at 10-1. It's very likely 4-5 will be under 10-1 at post and that would be quite consistent with what he has here.

I'm just happy I'll be travelling Saturday. May prevent me from betting Governor Malibu again...

[sammy the sage]

This is a silly statement. He has 3 under 10-1 already and 3 at 10-1. It's very likely 4-5 will be under 10-1 at post and that would be quite consistent with what he has here.

I'm just happy I'll be travelling Saturday. May prevent me from betting Governor Malibu again...

Back on topic...sorry for taking it off...Governor Malibu it is...w/a little Destin thrown....many people forget...Jim Dandy was NOT the target...SOME horses were NOT fully cranked for that...

[the little guy]

Wrong....they've been correct....I would bet they'll be AT least 4 to 5 horses in here BELOW 10/1 at post time...which means THIS line...not very accurate as well or at all...


"I see dumb people"

[Mc990]

1. He will need a career best to beat a Preakness/ Haskell winner & Derby place horse make no mistake.

2. Yes

3. Great it's your money.

4. Think what you want, fact is noone has more horses flash brilliance in the early spring of their 3YO year and are never heard from again than Pletcher.

I just can't take your post serious seeing as you have pointed to a G2 at Tampa as the "Standard" for a 3YO crop.

I for one think Gun Runner is overdue to get the job done in one of these big races.

Still can't help but think your bias against Pletcher is clouding your judgement here... Sure he's had some precocious horses that are never heard from again but that is not the case here. Destin lost the Belmont by a nose. A race where he beat Exaggerator.

I for one hope Ex goes off at 7/5 again on Saturday. 10f at Saratoga doesn't appear to be what the horse wants. I actually think he'd have a much better shot in the Kings bishop.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

With no rain in the forecast I will be playing against Exaggerator. Yes plenty of speed but will be siding else where. Have to take a deeper look but wont be using him in my pick 6. That being said, im sure he airs and knocks me out.

[MonmouthParkJoe]

Wrong....they've been correct....I would bet they'll be AT least 4 to 5 horses in here BELOW 10/1 at post time...which means THIS line...not very accurate as well or at all...

Keep in mind his job is to determine how he believes the final odds will go off, not necessarily who he thinks will win.

The general rule of thumb for a morning line is the number of horses in the field (14), plus 100, plus the takeout (NYRA WPS is 16% I believe), plus or minus 2 points. Each ML has a number assigned to it. Total points here would be 130, plus or minus 2. I looked over it now and given the points assigned to the ML for each horse is 128, so it is balanced.

He has been pretty spot on with his ML this meet, and while some of the horses arent going off at EXACTLY his morning line, they are pretty damn close and if you compare the times a ML has been off, it is not often as a % of the number of races run.

If you think people arent watching this, you are mistaken. He has done a great job, and I do not know him personally at all. A wide open field like this with so many horses and question marks/angles, I think it is a great ML. The race will handle well and with so much money in there, even those taking a big swing shouldnt dramatically alter anything.

[Rex Phinney]

Still can't help but think your bias against Pletcher is clouding your judgement here... Sure he's had some precocious horses that are never heard from again but that is not the case here. Destin lost the Belmont by a nose. A race where he beat Exaggerator.

I for one hope Ex goes off at 7/5 again on Saturday. 10f at Saratoga doesn't appear to be what the horse wants. I actually think he'd have a much better shot in the Kings bishop.

I have no bias against Pletcher. I call it like I see it. Last week I was "biased" against Baffert for not being the best trainer at bringing horses back from injury.

This 3YO crop IMO has turned into a real basket of cats. We have the Belmont winner at what 15-1 on the morning line for the Travers??? The Travers favorite hasn't won a race on a dry track in like 27 starts. Noone knows what is going to happen. I'll agree Exaggerator is a bet against, the track is new to most of them, so I'll probably look for quality horse who just hasn't found a surface he likes yet.

[dilanesp]

Honestly I'm rooting for him to get a grade one on a fast track just to end that whole debate. You'd of thunk his derby would have but it hasn't .

He can also emd that debate by regressing on a fast track.

[lamboguy]

i am very disappointed that Chad Brown didn't have 4 horses in the race, i was going to play a ten cent superfecta box with all his horses.