Mountaineer Playing for fun today

[Lance Pelt]

Sometimes I play around with run style and track bias to see if I can get the winner. I do not run handicapping software or place any wagers. Today I will see how I do at Mountaineer.

[Lance Pelt]

I am going with S and middle. So horses 4,5,6,7 and #6 to be itm.:eek:

[Mulerider]

Also without doing any handicapping, I'll go with the 1,2 or 7 based solely on highest Bris ACL.

[Lance Pelt]

#1 got it. S Inside

[Lance Pelt]

Going with E/P middle: so 4,6,7 What do you got? Twin Spires going with 9,3,1

[Mulerider]

The 1 and 7 both had ACL ratings of 106.5. The 2's was 106.4. However, the 1 had the undisputed highest ARR with 108. The 5 was in contention until the stretch and faded. His ARR was 104, with an ACL of 104.8.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Going with E/P middle: so 4,6,7 What do you got?
I'll go with 3 and 9...Pinzy's Prize and Ange Grise

[Lance Pelt]

Where are you getting the ACL I may could use it. Is that Ave Class or Competitive or what?

[Mulerider]

Race 2:

Highest ACL: #2 (111.3), #10 (110.6 - beware, earned on different surface), #2 (109.8)

Highest ARR: #10 (112), #3 and #6 (111), #9 (110)

Highest Last 4 Avg.: #2 (75), #5 (73), #4 (72)

Based solely on these metrics I'd have to go with the 2 since there's convergence in two metrics. There is convergence with the 10 as well, but the horse has a low HL4 (64) and worrisome trip comments.

Looks like a pretty wide open race. But I'm going to say 2, 4, 6.

Mule

[Mulerider]

Yes, that's what I was getting at earlier today. The ACL is found only in the Bris Ultimate Race Summary. It's calculation is proprietary. On the phone today with Bris I was told the only way I could get it in data form is with Neurax Pro ($14) or ALL-Ways (also $14). Pretty rich for my blood. That's why I'm still hand-entering stuff into Excel.

[Lance Pelt]

#1 again. S Inside

[VigorsTheGrey]

oh yeah, and the 1..that was my third choice. Result is 1 3 9.

[Mulerider]

Where are you getting the ACL I may could use it. Is that Ave Class or Competitive or what?

Sorry, overlooked your question. According to Bris the ACL is the Average Race Rating of the last 5 races in the last 12 months in which the horse was in the money. However, Bris notes that the number thus derived is "massaged" with their proprietary algorithm to create the ACL, the Average Competitive Level.

[VigorsTheGrey]

That was fun! Let's try another boys!

[Mulerider]

Nice picking, Vigors!

[Lance Pelt]

Sorry, overlooked your question. According to Bris the ACL is the Average Race Rating of the last 5 races in the last 12 months in which the horse was in the money. However, Bris notes that the number thus derived is "massaged" with their proprietary algorithm to create the ACL, the Average Competitive Level.
I got that link you posted yesterday on how the come up with it. I am looking in to it.

[Lance Pelt]

I am just going with E/P's so: :1: & :7: that is neat.

[VigorsTheGrey]

mountaineer race3:

:2: jasizzle 3-1
:5: starling's law 8-1
:4: chairman garey 5-1

[Mulerider]

,
Where you have to be careful with it is when it is earned on a different surface than today's race. Bris puts the ACL in parentheses in those cases. A prime example is the next race at Mountaineer.

Highest ACL: #5 ((115.7)), #2 ((114.9))

Highest ARR: #2 (117), #4 (115), #5 (113)

Highest L4: #2 (91), #3 (87), #1A & #5 (83)

Personally, I'd pass this race but if I had to pick (again, just using these metrics) I'd have to go with the 2 or 5.

[Mulerider]

Having just seen the tote, and having chosen the 2 and 5, I'd definitely pass.

[Lance Pelt]

Having just seen the tote, and having chosen the 2 and 5, I'd definitely pass.
This is just for fun.

[Mulerider]

Top 3 were all late speed.

[Lance Pelt]

Going with N/A's :1: & :5:

[Mulerider]

Going with N/A's :1: & :5:

:3: and :6: , despite the lack of data. And if your :5: wins it, then you, sir, deserve the 15/1 ML!

[Mulerider]

ACL's of the top three finishers:

:3: :104.3
:4: :104.2
:6: :104.0

The :2: and :5: had no ACL, since they'd never been in the money, and of course the :1: was FTS.

[Lance Pelt]

I am going with E/P's and inside so: :3: & :4:

[Mulerider]

MNR 5

Highest ACL: :4: (103.6), :2: (103.3), :6: (103.3)
Highest ARR: :4: (105), :3: , :6: (104 tie )
Highest L4 Avg: :4: (58), :1: , :6: (54 tie)

Going with :4: :2: :6:

[Mulerider]

MNR 6

Top ACL: :5: (103.2, but with poor speed figures; dropping in class) :2: 102.8, :1: (102.3)

Top L4: :2: (58), :4: (55), :1: (53)

Top ARR: :4:, :5: (105 tie), :1: (104), :2: (103)

Gun to my head, :1: :2: .

[Lance Pelt]

Going with E's and middle so: :1:,:2:,:5: with :5: to WPS

[Mulerider]

MNR 6

The :4: had no ACL rating since his July race was his first time back since Nov. 2014, and he wasn't in the money then.

[Lance Pelt]

MNR 6

The :4: had no ACL rating since his July race was his first time back since Nov. 2014, and he wasn't in the money then.
Yeah there are so many variables involved. That is what makes it so challenging.

I picked a horse one time, and when the gates opened, he just stood there. He did not want to run that day. lol

[Mulerider]

MNR 7

For some reason, there is no ARR showing for the :4: . Bris does that sometimes without explanation. I'll average his last 3 from the PPs.

Top ACL: :4: (105.4), :3: (105.3), :6: (105.2)

Top ARR: :2: (106), :5: , :6: (105 tie), :4: (104)

Top L4 Avg.: :3: , :4: (69 tie), :6: (65), :5: (60)

:4: :3: :6: TriB

[Lance Pelt]

Going with the S's: :2: & :5:

I don't have the PP's just looking at TS stats.

[BCOURTNEY]

:3:

[BCOURTNEY]

WILLETTE DECKER strikes again.

[Mulerider]

Good call on the :5: ! Why did you go with late speed? Pace has always been my nemesis.

Your 5 ruined the trifecta I was planning to retire on, lol.

Mule

[Mulerider]

Got to step out for a bit. Should be back for the nightcap.

[Lance Pelt]

Going with E's: :3: :5: :6:

[BCOURTNEY]

Race 8 - Old timers - they could have tagged this 5YO and up
:6:

[Lance Pelt]

Good call on the :5: ! Why did you go with late speed? Pace has always been my nemesis.

Your 5 ruined the trifecta I was planning to retire on, lol.

Mule
I am just looking at my track bias data and going with that. The Run Style and Post Position. In race 7 it showed S horses. Which was the 2 & 5

[Mulerider]

Caught the tail end of R8. 2-4-5.

The :2: had the highest L4 average and highest last speed.

The :4: and :5: had the highest ACL rankings at 110.7 and 110.8 respectively. The :6: had the third highest ACL at 110.1.

The :4: and :5: also had the highest ARR rankings at 112 and 111.

Speed often rules.

[Lance Pelt]

Going with E Middle: :5: & :6:

[Lance Pelt]

Caught the tail end of R8. 2-4-5.

The :2: had the highest L4 average and highest last speed.

The :4: and :5: had the highest ACL rankings at 110.7 and 110.8 respectively. The :6: had the third highest ACL at 110.1.

The :4: and :5: also had the highest ARR rankings at 112 and 111.

Speed often rules.
The $2 trifecta 2-4-5 $807.40

[Mulerider]

MNR 9

Top ACL: :7: (111.2), :2: (110.2), :9: (109.9)

Top ARR: :9: (111), :2: :7: (110 tie), :4: :5: (109)

Top L4 Avg.: :7: (80), :2: (77), :9: (76)

:2: :7: ... E7 and S. Hopefully I'm covered. lol. Watch the EP :9: nail me.

[Mulerider]

The $2 trifecta 2-4-5 $807.40

Between us we'll be rich.

[Mulerider]

Or not.

Enjoyed it, Lance.

[Lance Pelt]

Well that was fun and no heart attacks watching either with no $ on the line. Pick 5 paid $23,000+ Going to go watch TV

[headhawg]

I do not run handicapping software or place any wagers. Then why is this in the software thread? How about the selections section where it makes more sense.

[fight]

hommie you still look as young as ever. hope all well. fight

[headhawg]

Thanks fight. Been a long time. I hope that all is well with you, too. Feeling around 90, so thankfully I still look good. :p

[EasyGoer89]

No mark tonight, he ok?