My home-grown handicapping software

[Lance Pelt]

I am a computer programmer. I love horse racing and have been playing the ponies for over 30yrs. I hardly ever made a good ROI. I would do exactas and trifectas.

In 2009, I saw Brisnet.com (http://www.brisnet.com) had the data file structures for their data files available. I said "Bingo!" I can write a program to do all of the stuff I have been doing manually that took hours to handicap races and get it done in a couple minutes.

After 7 years of development, on and off, and debugging, testing, etc. I have a pretty good working copy. It creates past performances and makes great selections. I have actually been able now to get a good ROI. Here is a link to a race past performance with selections. Let me know what you think. Sample past performance (pdf file) (http://philpelt.mycastlive.com/MNR08172016R9.pdf)

Here is a link that explains all of the colors. How to read (http://philpelt.mycastlive.com/htr.php)

I normally don't look at the Past Performances except just to check out the horses I want to use to see if they are up to par. I use the top 2 or 3 Points Selections or Track Bias Selections per race and do pick-4's.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I really like this! Sign me up!
One thing I would include is an ep, lp ranking for all runners similar to what is found on Bris summary page far right side.....Vigors.

[Lance Pelt]

Is that early pace and late pace ranking? Where do I find that on brisnet? Is it like a +1 and or -4 numbers?

[bruin95]

Is that early pace and late pace ranking? Where do I find that on brisnet? Is it like a +1 and or -4 numbers?

If you look at a Brisnet PP Race Summary, it's the last two columns on the right.

[Lance Pelt]

If you look at a Brisnet PP Race Summary, it's the last two columns on the right.
Got it. Thanks.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Also, if possible, would use dark red to further break out trainer pattern stats shown as the bottom line. From what I see, there is a 2 color scheme of gray and light red only...dark red might be used to indicate superior trainer stats on these important specialty categories...welcome to Pace Advantage!

[Lance Pelt]

Well, I really can not just jump into the program and start making changes. It takes a lot of work. But, let's do this. Tomorrow I will run a full card on Penn National that will run on Wednesday night and I will post the pdf file here and let's see how it does.

[Lance Pelt]

Also, if possible, would use dark red to further break out trainer pattern stats shown as the bottom line. From what I see, there is a 2 color scheme of gray and light red only...dark red might be used to indicate superior trainer stats on these important specialty categories...welcome to Pace Advantage!

Already in the software. I can change the percentage variable. :ThmbUp:

[VigorsTheGrey]

Already in the software. I can change the percentage variable. :ThmbUp:

Very cool....!

[Actor]

What language do you use?

[barn32]

I'm very impressed.

A couple of questions:

1. Under PP Running Style Rail, what do the asterisks mean to the right and left of some of the running styles?

2. How would you describe all weather?

Comment: In your example race, The 10 horse, Renombre appears to be the top rated (or one of the top rated) horses, yet he doesn't have a single win in his past performances.

Am I reading things correctly?

Thanks

[barn32]

One more question:

Under several categories you say, "Many times the winning horse will be in the top 3."

Can you put some numbers around the words "many times?"

[Tom]

What language do you use?

Looks like English. :rolleyes:

Pretty nice layout - all the info laid out and color coded for quick reference.
Would be useful if you are playing a couple f tacks at the same time.

Looking forward to Wed at Pen.....

[Mulerider]

Outstanding work, LP! Which Bris data files do you use?

I am intrigued by your Points Selection column, since I use something very similar to that just to confirm the results of my homegrown Excel model.

To do that, I look at three metrics on the Bris Ultimate Race Summary: the ARR, the ACL (Average Competitive Level) and the Racing Speed Avg. I know that the ACL is useful and predictive; I just don't know how Bris calculates it. And so far as I can tell, you can only get the ACL on the Race Summary which, if you're getting the data files, is only included in the extremely high priced ones.

Here's how Bris defines ACL (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=acl)

Again, very impressive work!

Mule

[Mulerider]

I'm very impressed.

A couple of questions:

1. Under PP Running Style Rail, what do the asterisks mean to the right and left of some of the running styles?

2. How would you describe all weather?

Comment: In your example race, The 10 horse, Renombre appears to be the top rated (or one of the top rated) horses, yet he doesn't have a single win in his past performances.

Am I reading things correctly?

Thanks

Barn, in his example race at Mountaineer his top four Point Selections were 10-8-5-3. Actual order of finish for that race was 10-3-5-8. (Bris Prime Power Rankings were 10-8-5-1.)

Mule

[teddy]

I need a hobby like this for retirement... how cool. My friends developed a number to quantify the bias for each day as inside vs out. front vs closer. Based on off odds and how the horse finished. If the could be programmed , I know its killer info the public cant quantify. Made those guys millions. If a horse was severely biased a few times they could blow up the board in exotics.

[Secondbest]

Very interesting.I like the color grading for above or below par.

[Lance Pelt]

What language do you use?
I use vb.net 2015

[Lance Pelt]

I'm very impressed.

A couple of questions:

1. Under PP Running Style Rail, what do the asterisks mean to the right and left of some of the running styles?

2. How would you describe all weather?

Comment: In your example race, The 10 horse, Renombre appears to be the top rated (or one of the top rated) horses, yet he doesn't have a single win in his past performances.

Am I reading things correctly?

Thanks
1. asterisks to the right mean post position bias favored, to the left run style favored.
2. ?
Comment: It only compares the horses in that race. Renombre had the highest average Race Rating and Class Ratings. He was the better horse that day. plus had good run style and track bias.

[Lance Pelt]

One more question:

Under several categories you say, "Many times the winning horse will be in the top 3."

Can you put some numbers around the words "many times?"

I have processed 1,000's of races and recorded the results. In the Points Selections about 75% of the time the winner is in the top 3. When I do the track bias, and get it correct, the winner is 95% in the top 2.
I am still developing the track bias selection process. I get that right about 50% at this time and working on getting better results.

[Lance Pelt]

Outstanding work, LP! Which Bris data files do you use?

I am intrigued by your Points Selection column, since I use something very similar to that just to confirm the results of my homegrown Excel model.

To do that, I look at three metrics on the Bris Ultimate Race Summary: the ARR, the ACL (Average Competitive Level) and the Racing Speed Avg. I know that the ACL is useful and predictive; I just don't know how Bris calculates it. And so far as I can tell, you can only get the ACL on the Race Summary which, if you're getting the data files, is only included in the extremely high priced ones.

Here's how Bris defines ACL (http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=acl)

Again, very impressive work!

Mule

I process the Multi-Caps data files.

[Lance Pelt]

Looks like English. :rolleyes:

Pretty nice layout - all the info laid out and color coded for quick reference.
Would be useful if you are playing a couple f tacks at the same time.

Looking forward to Wed at Pen.....
I will post link to Pen PP's late Tuesday afternoon.

[fight]

nicework. do you have avg.best 2of last3 speed in your program ?its verygood

[2low]

Wow, congrats on getting this "done"! I love this stuff. I ~think~ I've finished up a home grow of my own that I'm collecting data with now. Mine is simpler because I'm dumber:lol:. If a professional programmer ever saw my code they'd vomit.

I know how satisfying it is to get a program working that handicaps the way you want, and you've gone the extra step of making money with it. Nice going!:ThmbUp:

[ReplayRandall]

Timing, timing, timing......NorCalGreg coming out with his "platinum" version of Pace View Pro, but low and behold, here's someone out of the blue with something to offer as well......

[VigorsTheGrey]

I have processed 1,000's of races and recorded the results. In the Points Selections about 75% of the time the winner is in the top 3. When I do the track bias, and get it correct, the winner is 95% in the top 2.
I am still developing the track bias selection process. I get that right about 50% at this time and working on getting better results.

95% in the top 2 is more than just an impressive percentage.....I'm stunned!
Could you explain some about what it means when you do the track bias....and when you do it right? I'm sort of confused what you mean here...thanks...

[Lance Pelt]

95% in the top 2 is more than just an impressive percentage.....I'm stunned!
Could you explain some about what it means when you do the track bias....and when you do it right? I'm sort of confused what you mean here...thanks...
I run the program 2 times on a race. 1st time creates PP with Points Selections. Then I figure out what run style and post position is most favored and put that in and run again. That adds Track Bias Points.
After trying many different percentages to add to Points Selections numbers, 2.5% for run style and 2.5% for post position worked best. Example. If a horse has a 500 Points Selection and has favored run style and post position, he would get a 525 Track Bias Points. If only run style or post position it would be 512.5 rounded to 513.

I tried Brisnet's track bias reports but did not work. Example. If there were only 7 horses in the race and no P horses and Brisnet had P and outside as track bias, no good to use. So I started keeping record of every race, Penn and Mountaineer, starting about a year ago. Not as hard to do you may think. I keep in an Excel spread sheet. Then I can pull up race dist, type, track condition, field size etc and trim it down to the race. Most times it will show most run style and post position. Ex. Out of say 20 races 13 are E's and 18 are Middle. I would use E Middle. And when I got both right the winner, :cool:, is almost every time in top 2 Track Bias Selections. And that is great for pick 4 an 5,s.

[barshoe]

VERY NICE ...

[NorCalGreg]

Timing, timing, timing......NorCalGreg coming out with his "platinum" version of Pace View Pro, but low and behold, here's someone out of the blue with something to offer as well......


You noticed that too? :D



*Edit: plenty of room for everyone :)

[Lance Pelt]

I posted the PP's as a new thread.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Can you do us a favor here at pace advantage and start posting your top two picks in Selections area? You can name the thread yourself...I think we all here are a little hungry for some winners...some of us here like to go live during the race day and like to share and bet each others selections hoping that between us all we can land on more winners...we would love for you to join us any day online here at PA...

Some who go live are...Nitro, Dartman51, racetrackplaya, trifecta, Chris long shot, coach, teach, frankcolt, sammythesage, myself, vigorsthegrey, alwaysonpoint phantom, pecci and many, many others, all great handicappers!

[Lance Pelt]

Can you do us a favor here at pace advantage and start posting your top two picks in Selections area? You can name the thread yourself...I think we all here are a little hungry for some winners...some of us here like to go live during the race day and like to share and bet each others selections hoping that between us all we can land on more winners...we would love for you to join us any day online here at PA...

Some who go live are...Nitro, Dartman51, racetrackplaya, trifecta, Chris long shot, coach, teach, frankcolt, sammythesage, myself, vigorsthegrey, alwaysonpoint phantom, pecci and many, many others, all great handicappers!
Sorry. I am not interested in posting picks. That road is a loser. Been there, done that. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Hope you understand.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Sorry. I am not interested in posting picks. That road is a loser. Been there, done that. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Hope you understand.

what are your intentions with your software...market it?

[Lance Pelt]

what are your intentions with your software...market it?
I don't know. I was able to wager on-line with Twin Spires until Ass-holes in Texas, my Great State, banned us from doing that. So, I have not been able to do much with it, except drive to Lone Star Park to place wagers, it really sucks with traffic, so I do not do it very much. But, I got lucky and in September my "brothers son", nephew? I do not know if I spelled that right. Any way he is moving to Seattle, WA and is going to set up an account with Twin Spires and I will be able to wager online via that. That is my deal. My software, I do not know about others. I would have to get a Code Signing Certificate in order to sell it. I do not have that. I will look in to it.

It does not matter any way. Let's see how it does today at Penn National. It may really suck.

[Lance Pelt]

Penn National PP's for Wednesday Aug 24, 2016 full card. Click Here pdf file 1.5mb (http://philpelt.mycastlive.com/PEN08242016fullcard.pdf)

[Lance Pelt]

Also, I created and own www.mycastlive.com (http://www.mycastlive.com) and could do a live broadcast for Penn National at 5:00pm Central Time just for fun. You can chat and call in live via Skype. What do you think? :jump:

[Pensacola Pete]

When does this go on sale, and how much is it?

[Lance Pelt]

Race Selections___ Winner
1___ :5: :2: :6:____ :6:
2___ :5: :4: :6:____ :4:
3___ :4: :1: :2:____ :4:
4___ :6: :7: :5:____ :7:
5____:3: :7: :1:____ :3:
6____:8: :9: :1:____ :8:
7____:2: :4: :3:____ :2:
8____:4: :8: :7:____ :4:

[Lance Pelt]

When does this go on sale, and how much is it?
I have to get a code signing certificate. I am thinking $160.

[VigorsTheGrey]

Race Selections___ Winner
1___ :5: :2: :6:____ :6:
2___ :5: :4: :6:____ :4:
3___ :4: :1: :2:____ :4:
4___ :6: :7: :5:____ :7:
5____:3: :7: :1:____ :3:
6____:8: :9: :1:____ :8:
7____:2: :4: :3:____ :2:
8____:4: :8: :7:____ :4:

Wow! That's more than a little impressive...were these top 3 pick from 1 category or a partially subjective synthesis of which categories?

[bruin95]

Have to say that I'm very impressed. I actually rolled the DD's all the way through and padded the old bankroll. Thanks. Hadn't played anything at Penn in years. Would love to see what the software could do at the Spa or Del Mar tomorrow or Friday. :)

[Lance Pelt]

Wow! That's more than a little impressive...were these top 3 pick from 1 category or a partially subjective synthesis of which categories?
It was the Points Selections category. Track Bias did okay to but missed a couple. Did you not get the PP's I posted?

[Lance Pelt]

Have to say that I'm very impressed. I actually rolled the DD's all the way through and padded the old bankroll. Thanks. Hadn't played anything at Penn in years. Would love to see what the software could do at the Spa or Del Mar tomorrow or Friday. :)
Good you made some $. That is what it is for. If you can send me the MCP data file from Brisnet I will run it. I am down to 1 data file I can get before I use up my quota there and I am saving that for this weekend.

[VigorsTheGrey]

It was the Points Selections category. Track Bias did okay to but missed a couple. Did you not get the PP's I posted?

Yes I looked at them...but wasn't at the races today....will give it a shot tomorrow but see that maybe this weekend you'll post some PPs....this is great thank you...let us know when you're ready to go public...

[Southbaygent]

I use vb.net 2015
Me too, I like vb.net and visual studio in general. I use if for some of my homemade stuff to do grunt work of my handicapping

[Lance Pelt]

Yes I looked at them...but wasn't at the races today....will give it a shot tomorrow but see that maybe this weekend you'll post some PPs....this is great thank you...let us know when you're ready to go public...
I can not post my PP's on this site any more.

[VigorsTheGrey]

I can not post my PP's on this site any more.

Yes I know...I was hoping you would stick around here even though you can not post PPs...I was was surprised when you said you were banned...This really is a fun website with many personalities that take a while to understand our idiosyncrasies...including myself...but it's pretty interesting generally and I spend a lot of time here...your PPs showed a lot of interesting things...glad you are back!

[Pensacola Pete]

I can not post my PP's on this site any more.

You got called for hawking your software without being an advertiser, and now you're throwing a temper tantrum .

You can hawk your software all you want. Just pay PA for the privilege, like the other advertisers do.

[DeltaLover]

I can not post my PP's on this site any more.

Do you realize that "your" PPs are not really yours? Based on my impression your "program" all that is doing is to display the (briss / equibase) data in your format. Do you really think that you are the first who have developed something similar? If you do not know, I have to inform you that there are several posters here in PA having such a solution but of course none of them even though about posting "his" PPs to the public since this clearly violates the IP of the underlined data.

All you can do is to either start selling your software or make it an open source solution.

[thaskalos]

This guy waited for two months to become a member...so he can come here to play the role of the PEST?

[Speed Figure]

Do you realize that "your" PPs are not really yours? Based on my impression your "program" all that is doing is to display the (briss / equibase) data in your format. Do you really think that you are the first who have developed something similar? If you do not know, I have to inform you that there are several posters here in PA having such a solution but of course none of them even though about posting "his" PPs to the public since this clearly violates the IP of the underlined data.

All you can do is to either start selling your software or make it an open source solution.I was thinking the same thing! Don't see anything different!

[betovernetcapper]

I have thought about this a bit and would like to make a comment. I viewed your work and it seems very orderly and because it is your work I can see why you'd like to display it.

In the world of handicapping software there are a lot of very good people doing original work and making out the same wage they'd get flipping burgers. One guy who is a professional programmer developed carpal tunnels syndrome. He did some really interesting original work and had a very meager payday.

While there are a few people making okay money most are just getting by. It is unseemly that someone who is making programs and selling them for under $100 and then paying a fee to advertise on this forum see someone else advertising their product with no fee. I doubt if you realized this was a breach of etiquette, but it was. Now it's over and forget about it.

On the subject of programmers, dealing with horse players has got to be about as much fun as dealing with a female coworker with PMS. Once when Gordon Pine was on a brief vacation, someone posted that they had just bought the program (NetCapper) and was having some problems. I sent him a private message with my phone number offering assistance. I've used the program for many years and felt confident in my ability to get this guy up and running. HUGE mistake. I spent three hours explaining to this guy what to click. The conversation went something like " on the top of the screen press the second icon and then such and such will happen". The guy then decided to argue with me about why you had to click that particular icon. The next day he called again and had some complaint about how Sartin would've done this differently. :bang:
My point is that the people that elect to go into this professionally have a reasonable expectation that if they have to pay for advertising all others will also. :)

[jk3521]

All the "software" seemed to do was present the BRIS race summary using a display of pretty colors. Nothing new was presented.

[kingfin66]

I clicked on the links provided on the first page but got a "page not found" error. I also saw your multiple threads berating the mods which are now locked. All of this leads me to one simple question: What's your deal?

[betovernetcapper]

All the "software" seemed to do was present the BRIS race summary using a display of pretty colors. Nothing new was presented.

In a sense that doesn't matter. Someone makes something and it's natural to want to show it off. If putting the data in this form works for him, great. We all have our preferred way of juggling the hundreds of factors involved in handicapping a race. I start with the HDW trainer stats & mark them up in pencil-blue & red ink highlighting what seems relevant. I'm sure someone else might view this as neurotic, but it's how I start. :)

[Topcat]

<When I do the track bias, and get it correct, the winner is 95% in the top 2.>

I must be misinterpreting what you mean by this because if you could isolate the winner 95% of the time in the top 2 (horses?) you couldn’t lose, in fact your biggest dilemma would be to see how much money you could push through without depressing prices-you would be a billionaire inside of a year

[BCOURTNEY]

All the "software" seemed to do was present the BRIS race summary using a display of pretty colors. Nothing new was presented.

I thought the assigned point system as well as the bias points were his own creation.

[traynor]

I thought the assigned point system as well as the bias points were his own creation.

A few years back a site called Cat'sPicks was doing something similar (reformatting someone else's work, in that case Trackmaster). Trackmaster (apparently) called him on it, cancelled his sub, and he posted here for awhile, general ranting, asking for donations (for "legal fees") so he could sue Trackmaster.

Some of the comments made in this thread seem remarkably similar. So does some of the color format used in the display.

[thaskalos]

A few years back a site called Cat'sPicks was doing something similar (reformatting someone else's work, in that case Trackmaster). Trackmaster (apparently) called him on it, cancelled his sub, and he posted here for awhile, general ranting, asking for donations (for "legal fees") so he could sue Trackmaster.

Some of the comments made in this thread seem remarkably similar. So does some of the color format used in the display.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[whodoyoulike]

You got called for hawking your software without being an advertiser, and now you're throwing a temper tantrum .

You can hawk your software all you want. Just pay PA for the privilege, like the other advertisers do.

From post #37

When does this go on sale, and how much is it?

I think you set him up!! I think you're a shill for one the other advertisers.

Prior to your post #37, I don't remember him mentioning selling his results. He was satisfied just showing what his program could do.

[Southbaygent]

Things that make you go "hmmmmm...." Good observation on the timing of it all hitting the fan.

[pandy]

A few years back a site called Cat'sPicks was doing something similar (reformatting someone else's work, in that case Trackmaster). Trackmaster (apparently) called him on it, cancelled his sub, and he posted here for awhile, general ranting, asking for donations (for "legal fees") so he could sue Trackmaster.

Some of the comments made in this thread seem remarkably similar. So does some of the color format used in the display.


Catpicks was a harness site if I remember. I think he had his own type of ability ratings. But, yes, he did get upset when he found out he couldn't publish his ratings.

[Pensacola Pete]

From post #37



I think you set him up!! I think you're a shill for one the other advertisers.

Prior to your post #37, I don't remember him mentioning selling his results. He was satisfied just showing what his program could do.

Others asked before I did. I knew he was going to hawk his product when I saw the first post in this thread. I can smell carnival a mile away. If you want some examples, here are a few:

In the Points Selections about 75% of the time the winner is in the top 3.

I've never seen anybody get 75% in the top 3.

When I do the track bias, and get it correct, the winner is 95% in the top 2.

That's absurd.

I process the Multi-Caps data files.

THAT didn't surprise me. The first thing I thought of when I saw the PDF was Marrone's Multicaps software. The printout looks like a variant of it. Marrone, as people may remember, was sued by BRIS for copyright infringement in the 1990s and turned over his Multicaps software to them, then was hired by BRIS to program for them, and it's logical to assume that he programmed or helped to program the Past Performance Generator as well as most of the other software BRIS put out.

(And no, "Lance Pelt" isn't John Marrone.)

Then others hinted that he was selling something in #25 and #29.

Sorry. I am not interested in posting picks. That road is a loser. Been there, done that. Too many cooks in the kitchen. Hope you understand.

I understood perfectly. If it busts on the first trial, there's no sale.

Then two full race cards at the track with the short fields, Penn National. A lot of trouble for somebody who is just showing off his software with no intention of marketing it.

Then in the next post #33, he was asked if he was going to market it.

Finally I got tired of it and asked him pointblank. And two posts later:

I have to get a code signing certificate. I am thinking $160.

Which was probably the intention all along.

But all of that could be avoided by simply doing a GoDaddy search of mycastlive.com, which he admits that he owns. Or in my case, it was avoided because I saw the URL in the first post of the thread. His name is in the header of the URL.

Have a look at this short video. Does the output look familiar? Does the name match the one in GoDaddy and in the first post URL? Note the date on the video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmjTahYVxLA (copied to my hard disk in case it disappears from YouTube)

It isn't something brand new. He's added to or reinvented the BRIS Past Performance Generator.

I didn't speak up sooner because it's hard to prove somebody is hawking something until they actually hawk it.

[barn32]

"When I do the track bias, and get it correct, the winner is 95% in the top 2."

That's absurd.

In all fairness, I asked him about this and he said the bias thing was 95% in the top 2 50% of the time. (A work in progress)

.5 x .95=47.5%

[ReplayRandall]

Why isn't this thread closed? Isn't the OP banned? Start a new thread, if you must continue this brilliant discussion, "How to get banned on PA by trying to sell reformulated Brisnet products".......

[cj]

Why isn't this thread closed? Isn't the OP banned? Start a new thread, if you must continue this brilliant discussion, "How to get banned on PA by trying to sell reformulated Brisnet products".......

Good point.