Where are the horses?

[Dahoss9698]

2nd at Saratoga today, a 32k race draws 6 and with the scratch down to 5.

So where are the horses?

[ronsmac]

2nd at Saratoga today, a 32k race draws 6 and with the scratch down to 5.

So where are the horses?
Dirt racing in general and at Saratoga in particular doesn't really draw big fields. It's been this way at Saratoga for years. The big fields will be on the grass.

[Dahoss9698]

Dirt racing in general and at Saratoga in particular doesn't really draw big fields. It's been this way at Saratoga for years. The big fields will be on the grass.
It was more of a rhetorical question. You'd think people would want to run more with these purses.

Did you see the field assembled for 73 thousand in the 3rd? Terrible.

[PhantomOnTour]

Non maiden dirt races (esp routes) are drawing paltry fields. Only exception I can recall this meet was the Saratoga Dew Stks they ran the other day.

[castaway01]

2nd at Saratoga today, a 32k race draws 6 and with the scratch down to 5.

So where are the horses?

The foal crop was 35,000 10 years ago and it's 20,000 now. The supply has decreased by 40%, so even with fewer races we can't fill fields. Pretty simple.

[thaskalos]

A natural byproduct of the advent of racinos...IMO. What was supposed to stimulate field size because of the higher purses, has instead had the opposite effect...as trainers have realized that, since the purses remain the same regardless of field size...it makes more sense to institute the SHORT field...where their horses have a better chance at the sizable purse.

Instead of "competition" among horsemen...the elevated purses have encouraged the "cooperation" among the horsemen, as they play the "numbers game" of pursuing the higher purses with the least amount of risk.

It certainly isn't just a Saratoga phenomenon...

[thaskalos]

The foal crop was 35,000 10 years ago and it's 20,000 now. The supply has decreased by 40%, so even with fewer races we can't fill fields. Pretty simple.

So...do we just project ANOTHER 40% decline over the next 10 years and shrug this off...or do we look for a new game to play now?

[thaskalos]

The foal crop was 35,000 10 years ago and it's 20,000 now. The supply has decreased by 40%, so even with fewer races we can't fill fields. Pretty simple.

It isn't just that the foal crop has decreased over the years. The sinister part of this development is revealed by the current nationwide epidemic known as the "late scratch". The fields are still adequate when they are initially carded...but then, the obligatory "late scratches" further reduce those fields to a totally unappetizing size. To appease the racing secretary...the trainers are obviously entering horses that they have no intention of running.

[Dahoss9698]

Maybe I need to explain myself better. They are giving lots of purse money away at Saratoga right now. I understand foal crops are down, fewer horses, etc.

But there are horses on the grounds right now to increase field size. Why aren't trainers running horses more often? The money is there.

[andtheyreoff]

It isn't just that the foal crop has decreased over the years. The sinister part of this development is revealed by the current nationwide epidemic known as the "late scratch". The fields are still adequate when they are initially carded...but then, the obligatory "late scratches" further reduce those fields to a totally unappetizing size. To appease the racing secretary...the trainers are obviously entering horses that they have no intention of running.

Does anyone have any numbers that back this up? Were there fewer scratches back in the day?

[thaskalos]

Does anyone have any numbers that back this up? Were there fewer scratches back in the day?
"Back in the day"...the only late scratches you ever saw were for incidents in the starting gate. Now...you have no IDEA why all these horses become "late scratches".

[Track Phantom]

2nd at Saratoga today, a 32k race draws 6 and with the scratch down to 5.

So where are the horses?
They're not at Indiana Downs....Have TVG on in the background and noticed they just had a match race (two-horse race). 12 horses entered and scratched down to 2 horses.

[dilanesp]

Nobody's running at Del Mar either.

[thaskalos]

They're not at Indiana Downs....Have TVG on in the background and noticed they just had a match race (two-horse race). 12 horses entered and scratched down to 2 horses.
A 12-horse race gets scratched down to 2 horses...and the race purse remains the same.

[whodoyoulike]

Maybe I need to explain myself better. They are giving lots of purse money away at Saratoga right now. I understand foal crops are down, fewer horses, etc.

But there are horses on the grounds right now to increase field size. Why aren't trainers running horses more often? The money is there.

This kind of raises an argument to reduce purses or only payout to maybe 3rd or 4th place.

[startngate]

Several things go into it:

1) Foal Crop
There are fewer horses in training.

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

3) No (or little) penalty scratches
It's way too easy to get out of races these days. Everyone enters, then looks at the overnight and scratches if they're "in too tough". That used to get you on the Vet's or Steward's list. No more.

4) Owner and Trainer Stats
Combination with #3. Owners and trainers both want their records to show high win and ITM percentages, so they only run where they think they can win.

5) Testing is getting better
For all of the "juicing" that is going on, testing is actually getting better, so horses that might have been able to run more often if they were getting something that wasn't tested for in the past, are taking more time between starts.

6) Fragility of the breed
Combination with #5. Horses aren't being bred all that well anymore. Decades of breeding for speed and the proliferation of running on meds has hurt the durability of the breed, so they have to make fewer starts.

7) Slots filled purses
If you were running for a $10k pot before slots and a $30k pot after, obviously you don't have to make as many starts to make the same money.

8) Insane State Bred Purses
With some States, the State bred bonus structure is so out of whack that in places where there is only one meet and the horses aren't competitive for anything other than cheap claiming races outside of the state bred races, horses will be put on the shelf for the rest of the year. For example, a MN bred Maiden Special runs for $32k and the winner has the opportunity to run in a bunch of allowance and MN bred Stakes races if decent. Take that horse to Turf Paradise or Tampa in the winter and that same horse is going to have to run for a tag to have any shot at hitting the board, but won't get entered because it would get claimed by someone who will then wait to run for higher purse money in MN.

9) Jockeys and Agents control the entry box
A lot of times horses won't get entered unless "so and so" can ride. Agents are trying to set their jockeys up to win races, and regularly hold entries, or try to get trainers to move to other spots because their rider has another mount for that race and they don't want to lose the mount. It's the worst at tracks when you have a lot of jockeys that "ride the barn" for Super Trainers, or one jockey that's far ahead in the standings.

Probably some other factors I am missing, but this is a pretty good list.

[green80]

This kind of raises an argument to reduce purses or only payout to maybe 3rd or 4th place.

Some of the tracks that have the fullest fields pay every place.

[Track Phantom]

A 12-horse race gets scratched down to 2 horses...and the race purse remains the same.

Purse and takeout remain the same. Both should be field size dependent.

[Track Phantom]

Several things go into it:
2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.
This is by far the biggest issue...not even a close 2nd. Trainers having so many horses and unwilling to run them against each other is a massive problem.

[v j stauffer]

Several things go into it:

1) Foal Crop
There are fewer horses in training.

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

3) No (or little) penalty scratches
It's way too easy to get out of races these days. Everyone enters, then looks at the overnight and scratches if they're "in too tough". That used to get you on the Vet's or Steward's list. No more.

4) Owner and Trainer Stats
Combination with #3. Owners and trainers both want their records to show high win and ITM percentages, so they only run where they think they can win.

5) Testing is getting better
For all of the "juicing" that is going on, testing is actually getting better, so horses that might have been able to run more often if they were getting something that wasn't tested for in the past, are taking more time between starts.

6) Fragility of the breed
Combination with #5. Horses aren't being bred all that well anymore. Decades of breeding for speed and the proliferation of running on meds has hurt the durability of the breed, so they have to make fewer starts.

7) Slots filled purses
If you were running for a $10k pot before slots and a $30k pot after, obviously you don't have to make as many starts to make the same money.

8) Insane State Bred Purses
With some States, the State bred bonus structure is so out of whack that in places where there is only one meet and the horses aren't competitive for anything other than cheap claiming races outside of the state bred races, horses will be put on the shelf for the rest of the year. For example, a MN bred Maiden Special runs for $32k and the winner has the opportunity to run in a bunch of allowance and MN bred Stakes races if decent. Take that horse to Turf Paradise or Tampa in the winter and that same horse is going to have to run for a tag to have any shot at hitting the board, but won't get entered because it would get claimed by someone who will then wait to run for higher purse money in MN.

9) Jockeys and Agents control the entry box
A lot of times horses won't get entered unless "so and so" can ride. Agents are trying to set their jockeys up to win races, and regularly hold entries, or try to get trainers to move to other spots because their rider has another mount for that race and they don't want to lose the mount. It's the worst at tracks when you have a lot of jockeys that "ride the barn" for Super Trainers, or one jockey that's far ahead in the standings.

Probably some other factors I am missing, but this is a pretty good list.

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done. :ThmbUp:

[VeryOldMan]

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done. :ThmbUp:

Amen! Real nice post startngate - I appreciate the thought and effort put into the post.

[TravisVOX]

2) Super Trainers
Trainers generally don't like to run against themselves. They'll enter more than one to make a race go if necessary, then scratch. When one trainer has 50+ horses in training at a meet (or nearby), it's harder for others to get stalls. That's why "in the old days" tracks limited the maximum number of stalls a trainer could have.

This is not talked about nearly enough IMO.

[chadk66]

It's not a pretty good list.

It's a FABULOUS list!

Well done. :ThmbUp:100% agree.:ThmbUp:

[Dahoss9698]

This is not talked about nearly enough IMO.
Agree. That was the intention of the Parity in Racing thread, but it took off in another direction.

When 3 or 4 guys have most of the horses, we are left with these smaller fields.

[whodoyoulike]

Some of the tracks that have the fullest fields pay every place.

Last I checked most races payout to every place. I think it changed maybe 7 - 10 years ago. Part of my thinking was, we want to have the connections wanting to win a part of the purses whenever entered because you never know when the next opportunity will arise.

With purse values so high and the payout to all entries sort of affects this goal because the connections may feel that there is always another one which will come up within the next few days.

Btw, I think we've discussed this before where you felt if they changed the purse values and payout structure that the smaller outfits would be hurt more than the larger outfits.

[v j stauffer]

Agree. That was the intention of the Parity in Racing thread, but it took off in another direction.

When 3 or 4 guys have most of the horses, we are left with these smaller fields.

Being from Northern California the problem here is exactly that. We have about 3 or 4 trainers who have the ability to control it all.

Hollendorfer
Martin
Morey
Sherman

It would be even worse if Martin and Morey didn't derive such pleasure from beating Jerry ;)

Love my Bay Area racing but it's unplayable. Especially now that Russell has retired.

All of his mounts were a point or two below their true price. Made for occasional opportunities.

That's gone now too. :confused:

Oh well no getting around some places in our sport are in dire shape. Not Oaklawn!! :ThmbUp: of course.

But they'll still have to drag me out kicking and screaming from GGF. :(

[ronsmac]

It was more of a rhetorical question. You'd think people would want to run more with these purses.

Did you see the field assembled for 73 thousand in the 3rd? Terrible.
Sorry about that

[affirmedny]

This kind of raises an argument to reduce purses or only payout to maybe 3rd or 4th place.


Why penalize the connections that DO RUN?

[whodoyoulike]

Why penalize the connections that DO RUN?

I don't want to do that either.

It's that I've noticed an increase in these late scratches in the last few years. Before, they just wouldn't enter. I pointed out on here a few years ago since after a take out rate increase which occurred years before in Cali which was supposed to increase the field sizes. The fields didn't increase as promised but some have and what I did notice was the purse values did increase but they started paying out to all entries.

There's always an unexpected result so I don't see why we shouldn't reverse something when the proposed claimed effect doesn't occur. Instead now we have a higher takeout, still small fields due to scratches or whatever, larger purses but now all entries get paid.

[Nitro]

Threads like this are so prevalent that the reality of it all is almost nauseating. The sad thing is that most of the observations are true.

However, it’s refreshing to know that not a single thought or comment on this thread applies to the horse racing in Hong Kong. They’ve obviously got their act together and their patronage vouches for every aspect of their game.

I’m looking forward to those big fields and big value, and it’s only a month away!

[Fager Fan]

Last I checked most races payout to every place. I think it changed maybe 7 - 10 years ago. Part of my thinking was, we want to have the connections wanting to win a part of the purses whenever entered because you never know when the next opportunity will arise.

With purse values so high and the payout to all entries sort of affects this goal because the connections may feel that there is always another one which will come up within the next few days.

Btw, I think we've discussed this before where you felt if they changed the purse values and payout structure that the smaller outfits would be hurt more than the larger outfits.

An owner needs to finish 1-2-3, and mostly 1st, for it to be a meaningful payday. Payouts beyond that basically covers the jockey, pony, and other misc fees. If a stakes races and a bit higher payout, then it can may or may not cover the nom, entry and start fees.

I haven't looked at the NYRA payouts on these $73k maidens. Payouts to last there could be an issue if the owner still brings in a significant fistful of money.

[Fager Fan]

Being from Northern California the problem here is exactly that. We have about 3 or 4 trainers who have the ability to control it all.

Hollendorfer
Martin
Morey
Sherman

It would be even worse if Martin and Morey didn't derive such pleasure from beating Jerry ;)

Love my Bay Area racing but it's unplayable. Especially now that Russell has retired.

All of his mounts were a point or two below their true price. Made for occasional opportunities.

That's gone now too. :confused:

Oh well no getting around some places in our sport are in dire shape. Not Oaklawn!! :ThmbUp: of course.

But they'll still have to drag me out kicking and screaming from GGF. :(


How many horses are in those guys' stables, if you know?

[lamboguy]

Being from Northern California the problem here is exactly that. We have about 3 or 4 trainers who have the ability to control it all.

Hollendorfer
Martin
Morey
Sherman

It would be even worse if Martin and Morey didn't derive such pleasure from beating Jerry ;)

Love my Bay Area racing but it's unplayable. Especially now that Russell has retired.

All of his mounts were a point or two below their true price. Made for occasional opportunities.

That's gone now too. :confused:

Oh well no getting around some places in our sport are in dire shape. Not Oaklawn!! :ThmbUp: of course.

But they'll still have to drag me out kicking and screaming from GGF. :(in theory racing is easy to fix to flourish again, practicality wise its impossible to change right now.

ownership and trainers have to be treated like limited rosters, just like in all successful sports these days. its to easy for these big guys to win, the game is taylor made for them now. its time to even out the playing field and you will get more players.

problem is does anyone see these big outfits giving up the easy life just so that this game can live?

[bello]

And an awful by-product of short fields is the un-coupled entry rule.

We all know the issues that go along with that guessing game.

I hear they will be changing the are of Finger Lakes to Englehart Downs.

I am not implying anything from that comment other than stuff that has to go through every handicappers mind when they see a race where 4 of 6 entrants are trained by the same family members. But races at FL would not fill any other way. And yes, it has effected my betting dollars there.

[Clocker]

2nd at Saratoga today, a 32k race draws 6 and with the scratch down to 5.

So where are the horses?

That's a big reason I gave up on tracks like the Spa and Delmar long ago, and switched my focus to smaller tracks. Bigger fields, and I personally find it easier to get some good prices there.

I just started following the new season at Remington Park. The first week they had an average field size of 9.2 entries, and they seem to run 2-4 scratches per day.

[v j stauffer]

How many horses are in those guys' stables, if you know?

All have 40-50 on track with more at Pleasanton.

Jerry has a full barn at Del Mar too and is not afraid to ship those north when reinforcements are needed.

[Tom]

That's a big reason I gave up on tracks like the Spa and Delmar long ago, and switched my focus to smaller tracks. Bigger fields, and I personally find it easier to get some good prices there.

I just started following the new season at Remington Park. The first week they had an average field size of 9.2 entries, and they seem to run 2-4 scratches per day.

Remington.....:ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[johnhannibalsmith]

... larger purses but now all entries get paid.

Where is this at? I've run horses at a few places that pay down but you don't get paid for being an entrant. You get paid for being a starter. Unless it is a sustaining payment futurity or some such thing where you might get a slice as long as you enter, but I don't think that's the topic here.

I was going to reply yesterday to a portion of another of your posts about the reasoning and got sidetracked so while I'm here - most everywhere that I've been (including one where I admittedly pushed the idea and made the case), paying down was intended to do little more than cover the overhead of running a horse. In this case, the jock mount and maybe lasix. Other places probably the intent is to help cover shipping where they draw from a few local sources. Basically, the idea was to strike one legit reason for not entering when hustled into entering into a spot. A reason to stay in the body of the race when hustled into a spot and then having buyer's remorse when the overnite is out. If your owner isn't going to have to pay a jock mount at a minimum to run, it's that much easier to stay in. Beyond that, you had owners with negative balances - often the same folks you called first to hustle aka race fillers - and a) stews were eventually having to late scratch them for not depositing a jock mount and getting back to even at least and b) trying to reconcile the accounts at the end of the meet was always a mess with threats of withholding foal papers when an account was negative. The idea was to stop wasting manpower (personpower) and cause endless battles over a few unpaid jock mounts.

Whether it works out that way in general over the long haul, I don't know, but in our case I think it helped quite a lot despite initial resistance from horsemen and was adopted as a result at the 'other' track in the circuit at the time.

[whodoyoulike]

Where is this at? I've run horses at a few places that pay down but you don't get paid for being an entrant. You get paid for being a starter. ...

You're correct. I meant every entrant who starts in the race. I just noticed that they started this practice within the last 10 years which seemed to be after a controversial takeout increase which was supposed to be an attempt to increase field sizes.