Teach
08-17-2016, 10:42 AM
Race One:
Steeplechase. Let me preface my remarks by saying that I don’t know much about “The Jumpers”. I would caution that my picks for this particular race are based more on a cursory knowledge of this aspect of the sport of thoroughbred racing rather than anything resembling knowledgeable steeplechase handicapping skills. Yet, my pick is :8: Unsinkable, an Irish-bred, who has done well since arriving in America (he won his last race at Prx). This gelding has the riding services of Jack Doyle. Doyle came off the tailgate to win a “jump race” earlier this month aboard a horse named Bob Le Beau in the Grade I A.P. Smithwick Memorial. In that race, the horse’s trainer is the same one for my choice in this race; her name is Elizabeth Voss. In today’s race, my pick, Unsinkable, a 6 year-old grey, should be out and winging when the starter drops the flag. My choice will likely be playing catch-me-if-you-can. This gelding has flat-race experience so the removal this year of the final fence in the stretch helps. This gelding appears to like a turf course with moisture; so if the course is labeled “good” (it is), all the better. For those who play exotics… Others: :9: , :2: , :3:
Race Two:
In this lower-level nine-panels claiming route, my pick is: :5: Lutheran Miss. This mare should have it all her own way on the front end (the race will go through her). Yet, she’s no lead-pipe cinch, especially at what I suspect will be odds that are even-money or lower. To her credit, this 5 year-old grand-daughter of Kingmambo has won her last two, one at Belmont; the other, at Penn National, albeit, in both cases, against somewhat weaker company. The “hot as a petardo (firecracker),” Jose Ortiz (he had four winners on Monday’s “Spa” card), is in the irons. My only concern is that this mare has been on the shelf for nearly three months. To further add to my worries, the mare’s morning work-tab has been nuthin’ to write home about; yet I find it hard to identify anyone else who I believe can beat her, esp. in this weak field of lower-level claimers. Oh, this mare’s conditioner is the most capable Jason Servis; he does very well with claim repeaters. Others: :2: , :1: , :3:
Race Three:
In this MSW sprint for New York state-breds, my choice is: :5: Cashconsiderations. This 3 year-old filly’s connections are impeccable, especially the jockey-trainer combo of Javier Castellano and Chad Brown. The veteran reinsman, Castellano, is one of the best; the horse’s conditioner, Brown, is leading the pack for the Saratoga training title. Although today’s race is this filly’s first, she comes from a mare, Latin Lynx, who had five winners out of six starters. Two of those winners won in stakes competition. This filly’s morning work-tab has been both good and steady. Oh, Chad Brown does very well with horses entered in MSW races. Others: :6: , :4: , :3:
Race Four:
In this optional claiming route, n3x, my pick is :5: Industrial Policy. This 5 year-old mare has, admittedly, had gate issues. She’s been bumped more times than an ingénue on an amusement-park Dodgem Car ride. If she can avoid contact at the line of scrimmage (out of the starting gate), she’s certainly most capable of prevailing here. Still, there are lots of “ifs,” not the least of which is the need for a clean, unimpeded start (we should know in the first five seconds). The mare’s pilot is Florent Geroux (what a day he had over the weekend at Arlington Park; he won The Secretariat, Beverly D and St. Leger). The mare’s trainer, Mark Casse, ships this Harlan’s Holiday-bred in from Woodbine (just northwest of downtown Toronto) where she was last seen finishing seventh in Grade II Stakes company. Yet, it should be noted that, in that one, she was only three lengths off the winner at the wire. Others: :1: , :2: , :3:
Race Five:
In this 40k maiden claiming 7-furlongs sprint, I’m going with the outside horse, :9: Sugar Trip. In his only pari-mutuel start, a six-furlong MSW sprint at Churchill Downs in late May, this Candy Ride-bred colt finished a game second (he raced greenly in the stretch) to the eventual winner, Bird Song (it should be noted that Bird Song would go on to win his most recent “Spa” race). If that Churchill race is any indication, this bay colt should easily handle this field (In fact, I’m confounded and perplexed by the fact that this colt’s connections are putting him in for a tag; somebody’s (they’ll probably be falling over themselves) sure to enter his name in the claim box). To add to his lustre, this colt had a sparkling morning work. Yet, I must confess that I have a gnawing feeling – Why? This class-drop has to be labeled: “suspicious”. The most capable Eddie Kenneally trains this grandson of Fusaichi Pegasus. Kenneally does very well with horses entered in their second career race. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Others: :5: , :4: , :3:
Race Six:
In this MSW turf route on The Inner my choice is: :6: Giovanna Blues. This Gio Ponti-bred bay filly was second in a similar race, downstate, at Belmont in early June. Yes, I’m am concerned that there is a two-month gap between today’s race and her last one at Belmont. Yet, this filly’s morning work-tab, on the turf. has been very good. This filly has the chauffeuring services of the Hall of Fame jockey, John Velazquez. Velazquez, by the way, is having an outstanding “Spa” meet. The veteran trainer, Mike Dickinson, “The Mad Genius,” (remember Da Hoss) is the filly’s trainer. Dickinson doesn’t saddle many at Saratoga, but when he does… Dickinson does particularly well with horses making turf starts. Others: :2: , :3:, :1:
Race Seven:
:5: Moon River, the aptly named son of the broodmare Hepburn (remember Andy Williams’ version of this song) is my pick in this turf sprint, n1x. This Bluegrass Cat bay colt finished a game second in the non-graded White Oak Farm Stakes at Pimlico in late June. This Storm Cat-bred now meets softer company in today’s allowance race. The colt’s pilot, Florent Geroux, has been red-hot. Yet, I’m concerned that this colt has been away from the races for nearly two months. Yet, by and large, this colt’s morning work-tab has been good. This colt’s dam, the aforementioned Hepburn (remember the movie: “Breakfast at Tiffany’s”), had six winners from six starters; two of those were stakes winners. This colt should be coming fastest of all in the stretch. Others: :6: , :4: , :3:
Race Eight:
:4: Don Dulce is my choice in this claiming route on the main. This 8 year-old Maria’s Mon-bred gelding won his last, an OC route that was run about 10 months ago at Belmont. Yes, the prolonged layoff concerns me. Yet, a relatively recent “bullet” morning work allays some of those worries. Bruce Levine is this gelding’s trainer. Quite candidly, Levine is having a less-than- stellar “Spa” meet. Yet, having said that, Levine does well with winners of their last race. The meet’s leading rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., is in the irons. Others: :3: , :1: , :5:
Race Nine:
:7: Lull is my selection in this non-graded Bolton Landing 100k turf sprint. This War Front-bred bay filly went gate-to-wire in breaking her maiden toward the tail end of the Belmont meet. When the starting-gate latches are sprung, this Danzig-bred filly should be, once again, out and winging. In her last, this 2 year-old bay was sent off at slightly better than 4-1 odds. I seriously doubt you’ll get anything resembling that, today. Christophe Clement, a most capable trainer, is having an “unClement-like” Saratoga meet, at least so far this summer. Yet, Monsieur Clement does very well both with second grass races and with maiden-breaking winners in their last race categories. The up-and-coming jock, Manny Franco, reprises the ride. Others: :8: , :1: , :2:
Race Ten:
In the finale, a maiden-claiming sprint, I’m going for an upset with the outside horse, :11: Alien Gray. This Unbridled’s Song-bred grey gelding is dropping two levels from a 50k to 20k claiming company. I believe the outside starting post will aid and abet this Storm Cat-bred gelding’s chances. Yes, this gelding’s been “on the bench” for a month and one-half; however, his morning work-tab has been good. This 3 year-old’s trainer, Ian Wilkes, wins 50% of time, albeit with a limited sampling, when dropping one of his charges 2+ levels. The razor-sharp Jose Ortiz, the pride of Trujillo Alto (“Ciudad de Las Ocho Calles”), Puerto Rico, will have his feet in the stirrups. Others: :8: , :4: , :9:
Steeplechase. Let me preface my remarks by saying that I don’t know much about “The Jumpers”. I would caution that my picks for this particular race are based more on a cursory knowledge of this aspect of the sport of thoroughbred racing rather than anything resembling knowledgeable steeplechase handicapping skills. Yet, my pick is :8: Unsinkable, an Irish-bred, who has done well since arriving in America (he won his last race at Prx). This gelding has the riding services of Jack Doyle. Doyle came off the tailgate to win a “jump race” earlier this month aboard a horse named Bob Le Beau in the Grade I A.P. Smithwick Memorial. In that race, the horse’s trainer is the same one for my choice in this race; her name is Elizabeth Voss. In today’s race, my pick, Unsinkable, a 6 year-old grey, should be out and winging when the starter drops the flag. My choice will likely be playing catch-me-if-you-can. This gelding has flat-race experience so the removal this year of the final fence in the stretch helps. This gelding appears to like a turf course with moisture; so if the course is labeled “good” (it is), all the better. For those who play exotics… Others: :9: , :2: , :3:
Race Two:
In this lower-level nine-panels claiming route, my pick is: :5: Lutheran Miss. This mare should have it all her own way on the front end (the race will go through her). Yet, she’s no lead-pipe cinch, especially at what I suspect will be odds that are even-money or lower. To her credit, this 5 year-old grand-daughter of Kingmambo has won her last two, one at Belmont; the other, at Penn National, albeit, in both cases, against somewhat weaker company. The “hot as a petardo (firecracker),” Jose Ortiz (he had four winners on Monday’s “Spa” card), is in the irons. My only concern is that this mare has been on the shelf for nearly three months. To further add to my worries, the mare’s morning work-tab has been nuthin’ to write home about; yet I find it hard to identify anyone else who I believe can beat her, esp. in this weak field of lower-level claimers. Oh, this mare’s conditioner is the most capable Jason Servis; he does very well with claim repeaters. Others: :2: , :1: , :3:
Race Three:
In this MSW sprint for New York state-breds, my choice is: :5: Cashconsiderations. This 3 year-old filly’s connections are impeccable, especially the jockey-trainer combo of Javier Castellano and Chad Brown. The veteran reinsman, Castellano, is one of the best; the horse’s conditioner, Brown, is leading the pack for the Saratoga training title. Although today’s race is this filly’s first, she comes from a mare, Latin Lynx, who had five winners out of six starters. Two of those winners won in stakes competition. This filly’s morning work-tab has been both good and steady. Oh, Chad Brown does very well with horses entered in MSW races. Others: :6: , :4: , :3:
Race Four:
In this optional claiming route, n3x, my pick is :5: Industrial Policy. This 5 year-old mare has, admittedly, had gate issues. She’s been bumped more times than an ingénue on an amusement-park Dodgem Car ride. If she can avoid contact at the line of scrimmage (out of the starting gate), she’s certainly most capable of prevailing here. Still, there are lots of “ifs,” not the least of which is the need for a clean, unimpeded start (we should know in the first five seconds). The mare’s pilot is Florent Geroux (what a day he had over the weekend at Arlington Park; he won The Secretariat, Beverly D and St. Leger). The mare’s trainer, Mark Casse, ships this Harlan’s Holiday-bred in from Woodbine (just northwest of downtown Toronto) where she was last seen finishing seventh in Grade II Stakes company. Yet, it should be noted that, in that one, she was only three lengths off the winner at the wire. Others: :1: , :2: , :3:
Race Five:
In this 40k maiden claiming 7-furlongs sprint, I’m going with the outside horse, :9: Sugar Trip. In his only pari-mutuel start, a six-furlong MSW sprint at Churchill Downs in late May, this Candy Ride-bred colt finished a game second (he raced greenly in the stretch) to the eventual winner, Bird Song (it should be noted that Bird Song would go on to win his most recent “Spa” race). If that Churchill race is any indication, this bay colt should easily handle this field (In fact, I’m confounded and perplexed by the fact that this colt’s connections are putting him in for a tag; somebody’s (they’ll probably be falling over themselves) sure to enter his name in the claim box). To add to his lustre, this colt had a sparkling morning work. Yet, I must confess that I have a gnawing feeling – Why? This class-drop has to be labeled: “suspicious”. The most capable Eddie Kenneally trains this grandson of Fusaichi Pegasus. Kenneally does very well with horses entered in their second career race. Javier Castellano is in the irons. Others: :5: , :4: , :3:
Race Six:
In this MSW turf route on The Inner my choice is: :6: Giovanna Blues. This Gio Ponti-bred bay filly was second in a similar race, downstate, at Belmont in early June. Yes, I’m am concerned that there is a two-month gap between today’s race and her last one at Belmont. Yet, this filly’s morning work-tab, on the turf. has been very good. This filly has the chauffeuring services of the Hall of Fame jockey, John Velazquez. Velazquez, by the way, is having an outstanding “Spa” meet. The veteran trainer, Mike Dickinson, “The Mad Genius,” (remember Da Hoss) is the filly’s trainer. Dickinson doesn’t saddle many at Saratoga, but when he does… Dickinson does particularly well with horses making turf starts. Others: :2: , :3:, :1:
Race Seven:
:5: Moon River, the aptly named son of the broodmare Hepburn (remember Andy Williams’ version of this song) is my pick in this turf sprint, n1x. This Bluegrass Cat bay colt finished a game second in the non-graded White Oak Farm Stakes at Pimlico in late June. This Storm Cat-bred now meets softer company in today’s allowance race. The colt’s pilot, Florent Geroux, has been red-hot. Yet, I’m concerned that this colt has been away from the races for nearly two months. Yet, by and large, this colt’s morning work-tab has been good. This colt’s dam, the aforementioned Hepburn (remember the movie: “Breakfast at Tiffany’s”), had six winners from six starters; two of those were stakes winners. This colt should be coming fastest of all in the stretch. Others: :6: , :4: , :3:
Race Eight:
:4: Don Dulce is my choice in this claiming route on the main. This 8 year-old Maria’s Mon-bred gelding won his last, an OC route that was run about 10 months ago at Belmont. Yes, the prolonged layoff concerns me. Yet, a relatively recent “bullet” morning work allays some of those worries. Bruce Levine is this gelding’s trainer. Quite candidly, Levine is having a less-than- stellar “Spa” meet. Yet, having said that, Levine does well with winners of their last race. The meet’s leading rider, Irad Ortiz, Jr., is in the irons. Others: :3: , :1: , :5:
Race Nine:
:7: Lull is my selection in this non-graded Bolton Landing 100k turf sprint. This War Front-bred bay filly went gate-to-wire in breaking her maiden toward the tail end of the Belmont meet. When the starting-gate latches are sprung, this Danzig-bred filly should be, once again, out and winging. In her last, this 2 year-old bay was sent off at slightly better than 4-1 odds. I seriously doubt you’ll get anything resembling that, today. Christophe Clement, a most capable trainer, is having an “unClement-like” Saratoga meet, at least so far this summer. Yet, Monsieur Clement does very well both with second grass races and with maiden-breaking winners in their last race categories. The up-and-coming jock, Manny Franco, reprises the ride. Others: :8: , :1: , :2:
Race Ten:
In the finale, a maiden-claiming sprint, I’m going for an upset with the outside horse, :11: Alien Gray. This Unbridled’s Song-bred grey gelding is dropping two levels from a 50k to 20k claiming company. I believe the outside starting post will aid and abet this Storm Cat-bred gelding’s chances. Yes, this gelding’s been “on the bench” for a month and one-half; however, his morning work-tab has been good. This 3 year-old’s trainer, Ian Wilkes, wins 50% of time, albeit with a limited sampling, when dropping one of his charges 2+ levels. The razor-sharp Jose Ortiz, the pride of Trujillo Alto (“Ciudad de Las Ocho Calles”), Puerto Rico, will have his feet in the stirrups. Others: :8: , :4: , :9: