Beholder vs. California Chrome

[RacingFan1992]

I don't know if this has been done already so if it has please just lock it but if it hasn't....

With the Pacific Classic coming up there is gonna be the age old question...Him or Her?

[zico20]

I voted Chrome. He is the better horse and it will be undisputed after he beats her handily.

[Zaf]

Dortmund ?

[letswastemoney]

lol the field is beating Beholder in the poll

[Robert Fischer]

i honestly will have to handicap the race.

Chrome is always underlaid

I don't remember where Beholder's form is.

not crazy about Dortmund either

[Fager Fan]

lol the field is beating Beholder in the poll

She lost her last race so that's to be expected. Most of the votes for the field would be for Dortmund.

It'd be humorous if those three set things up for Hard Aces to come along and get them. He might be the one who likes 1 1/4 best.

[Hoops McCann]

should be a great race. looking forward to it ;)

[ronsmac]

i honestly will have to handicap the race.

Chrome is always underlaid

I don't remember where Beholder's form is.

not crazy about Dortmund eitherChrome'a last race was probably the only time he wasn't an underlay since the Derby.

[clocker7]

The only thing that calls Chrome into question for any of his races is concentration. After the Shermans began mentioning studdishness late in his 3yo season as a reason for concern, it's always inhibited me. One of them mentioned it not long ago.

But that's the only thing. His talent and condition right now is without question.

[ReplayRandall]

Beholder will win, let there be no doubt:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=2023326&postcount=2

[Nitro]

I agree. If Beholder is in top form I think she'll win.

[lamboguy]

I agree. If Beholder is in top form I think she'll win.i am going to wait for the tote on that one!

[biggestal99]

CC sitting on a big one, we all saw what he did in dubai when he had one under his belt.

Allan

[zico20]

I agree. If Beholder is in top form I think she'll win.

Does she have to run a certain time to be in top form? What if CC beats her by ten lengths and Beholder runs 3rd behind Dortmund also. Are you going to say she was not in top form? If both are in top form CC wins. There I said it. He is the better horse, overall.

[tanner12oz]

Dortmund..getting bigger and stronger

[burnsy]

Voted for Chrome but field would be my next thought. The problem with fillies and mares is when they go south just a little, it usually gets worse. Put it this way, from watching the history of horses like this through out my horse racing following if she does not bounce back quickly, the end is near. The last race could of been an outlier but she will have to improve (to prior form) big time to beat the top two males. Once horses like her lose interest, its over and this happens more times than people care to think about. Of all of her big races, this could be a life changer for her if she does not come through strong.

[classhandicapper]

Voted for Chrome but field would be my next thought. The problem with fillies and mares is when they go south just a little, it usually gets worse. Put it this way, from watching the history of horses like this through out my horse racing following if she does not bounce back quickly, the end is near. The last race could of been an outlier but she will have to improve (to prior form) big time to beat the top two males. Once horses like her lose interest, its over and this happens more times than people care to think about.

I understand exactly what you are talking about when you talk about horses going sour (especially fillies and mares). But I don't think that's the case with Beholder. She looked fine before her last start and I don't think she was fully cranked for the last one. This is the race they had in mind. They weren't going to squeeze the lemon dry to beat Stellar Wind for 300k. I'm sure they wanted to win and even expected to win, but she was not cranked. I think the bigger problem is that this is a much tougher field than last year.

[burnsy]

I understand exactly what you are talking about when you talk about horses going sour (especially fillies and mares). But I don't think that's the case with Beholder. She looked fine before her last start and I don't think she was fully cranked for the last one. This is the race they had in mind. They weren't going to squeeze the lemon dry to beat Stellar Wind for 300k. I'm sure they wanted to win and even expected to win, but she was not cranked. I think the bigger problem is that this is a much tougher field than last year.

Agreed, she may be ready to fire or she could never win again. Put it this way, I would not take a low price on this horse, this year, at this time vs. these. And this is tougher than last year to boot. Just like you pointed out.

[bobphilo]

I'd have to see their speed figures before making a prediction. If Beholder runs back to her last year's Pacific Classic she wins. The question whether she is in the same form. Again I'd have to see the recent figures.
I think Dortmund will run 3rd to Beholder and CC. The reason he finished close to CC in their last was that he was in top shape coming off a string of bullet works (ala Baffert) while CC's works were so so. He will probably move up of that race.

[Cratos]

I'd have to see their speed figures before making a prediction. If Beholder runs back to her last year's Pacific Classic she wins. The question whether she is in the same form. Again I'd have to see the recent figures.
I think Dortmund will run 3rd to Beholder and CC. The reason he finished close to CC in their last was that he was in top shape coming off a string of bullet works (ala Baffert) while CC's works were so so. He will probably move up of that race.
I will take Chrome over Beholder; however I am a gambler and I don't think the difference between Chrome, Beholder, and Dortmund is very far apart.

Therefore if the odds gods are charitable I will lay some "wooden nickels" on Dortmund.

[Rex Phinney]

You know looking this race over, I have to stick with Beholder. I don't know how much a good gambler can really throw at this race $$$ wise because the prices will be so short. I happen to think that Stellar Wind is no slouch (by Curlin out of a Malibu Moon mare, come on), 5 times graded stakes winner, 2nd in the BC distaff. I also think Stellar Wind got a wonderful ride.

I really don't think much of Dortmund at this point, simply because Baffert uses horses up, he doesn't rebuild them. I'm not saying that's good or bad, I'm just saying that with the delays and hiccups Dortmund has had I don't see Baffert as the best trainer for him right now. By association seeing him eye to eye with Chrome last out I just cannot throw my faith in Chrome.

Stevens will have NO inclination to take the lead this time like he did in the Hirsch, and that is good for Beholder.

Oh, and also somewhere, watching it all unfold, Shared Belief is unimpressed with all 3.

[Nitro]

Does she have to run a certain time to be in top form? What if CC beats her by ten lengths and Beholder runs 3rd behind Dortmund also. Are you going to say she was not in top form? If both are in top form CC wins. There I said it. He is the better horse, overall.

Let's put it this way if she runs like she did in last year's PC this race is history.
And at perhaps 5/2 I just might make that bet.

[Hoops McCann]

Let's put it this way if she runs like she did in last year's PC this race is history.
And at perhaps 5/2 I just might make that bet.

That's how i see it. is the chance that she runs back to last year's race worth a 5/2 shot?

[ReplayRandall]

That's how i see it. is the chance that she runs back to last year's race worth a 5/2 shot?

Pretend that they run this exact race 20 times, wouldn't you take a minimum of 5-2 on Beholder every time? She'd have to win only 6 times to be +EV.....

[cj]

I personally think Chrome beats even her best race.

[ReplayRandall]

I personally think Chrome beats even her best race.

Is that a reverse mush comment?..:)

[cj]

Is that a reverse mush comment?..:)

Nope, only do that with sports.

[bobphilo]

Nope, only do that with sports.
Hmm. I thought horse racing was a sport. :)

[burnsy]

That's how i see it. is the chance that she runs back to last year's race worth a 5/2 shot?

Not really. Last years race probably can't win this. She probably has to run better than that to win this year. You got to get at least 5-1 or more IMO. That ain't happening. Of course, there's always the chance that I'm wrong or the other two have a bad race but she may be up against it this year. The two male horses looked like the real deal last out......beastly.

[Rex Phinney]

I think her race last year is getting short changed.

If I knew going into the gate today she had a 1:59.7 time to throw at the boys I'd certainly take 5/2.

Her race from last year or the 2013 BC distaff wins this race.

I also have to believe Mandella would not throw his beloved mare to the wolves. If she is going to the gate here, he believes she's got a good chance.

[no breathalyzer]

The best race horse i personally ever seen period!!!!

[no breathalyzer]

I told everyone this horse is going to have a special yr

[EMD4ME]

I told everyone this horse is going to have a special yr

YES YOU DID :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[zico20]

I voted Chrome. He is the better horse and it will be undisputed after he beats her handily.

Never any doubt in my mind what was going to happen! Easy money today.

[Zaf]

Wow what a great performance ! :ThmbUp:

Z

[JustRalph]

Never looked better

Especially on the gallop out and when Victor pulled him up. Looked incredible.

[burnsy]

That was as good as it gets and the problem with betting the other horse (Beholder) at 5-2 or 3-1. Chrome wins this race 20 out of 20 times, 19 if he stumbles once. They just can't handle him at that distance. His 10 furlong races are just too good for most anybody right now. I mean you could put him against anyone through out history and he would run well. That was a super star performance just like Dubai. None of the others had ANY CHANCE, it was a Tour de Force. Beholder ran a credible race which I was not sure was coming but Chrome played with this field and laughed his way home. He is the king right now and its not close until someone beats him. Kudos to Art Sherman, Chrome has looked like a Cadillac all season long and yesterday was the icing on the cake.....he's a monster and a half.

[lamboguy]

the only question mark before the race was if he would overcome the rail, he wound up making a fool out of the rail. CHROME is a double awesome horse and we probably haven't seen the best of him yet!

[stuball]

Art Sherman is a real horse trainer with a real horse...if I had a horse that is where it would go...