Monday night (maiden) madness at Mountaineer

[The_Knight_Sky]

Alright fellows - thought you guys might still be up for some
slice 'em and dice 'em on Monday evening.

The 6th race is a Maiden Special for 3 year olds with at $25,000 pot.
This will be televised on TVG at 9:05 pm ET
and I'm sure we'll be blessed with less fog than last time. ;)

So grab my $100 cyber-dollar out of my wallet
and be sure to post your words of wisdom on why you've got a solid play at what is arguably the most challenging racetrack in North America.

CLICK: past performances for Monday's 6th at The Mountain (courtesy of BRIS) (http://www.brisnet.com/Promo/Free_PPs/mnrcomp0712.pdf)

[The_Knight_Sky]

There is potential for some generous payoffs here
as the 3/1 Morning Line favorite Time Crafter had a very difficult race in his debut.

Chartman's comments reads: 4 way duel, very game

Those who believe that first time starters do not regress in their second lifetime starts,
speak now or forever hold your peace. :D

The 3 year old gelding gets 23 days off to recover
and runs again without any medication except Butazolidin.
Is it enough?

[Buddha]

Just watched a replay of that race. 4 way duel is a little off. Time Crafter broke a few steps slow, rushed up to duel with Male vision for the first 3/8ths or so, and tehn was in a 3 horse duel til the end. a very game effort, all the while being inside on a first start. the race should do him well, and if he is anything like his first start, should romp.

give me $10 exactas 3 over the 6,8
$5 tri 3 with 6,8 with 1,2,6,7,8,10
$30 win 3

[The_Knight_Sky]

Hello Buddha -

You seem confident in your assessment that the favorite
Time Crafter will carry his speed a tad bit longer tonight.

On the contrary I'm sensing improved pace pressure from #9 Cool Cat Sam
who matched strides with Time Crafter last time out.
This time he adds furosemide and figures to be in the hunt longer.

When dealing with young maidens, I always consider the possibility
that Time Crafter may ultimately turn out to be a quitting E type.
One that hangs on for minor checks but just doesn't get the job done.
We don't know it yet but the inability to put away another front
running rival could be a part of his psychological makeup.

Add in the fact that he could very well regress if
trainer Demcyzk didn't put enough bottom into the horse.
Tough for me to take at 3/1.

[BIG HIT]

Here the way i see it #6 is spd of spd #7 and #9 will be in mix as they don't need lead to win.The #6 has 2 good 5f wks and a good gate wk blow out.And #3 had some wks a slight regression in them and maybe like #6 need to leadin which case don't think he is faster then #6.And #9 should be there as he is to me kinda a presser and #7 diffently will get part of this

[Suffolk OTB]

TIME CRAFTY was 38-1 in his debut, which means that the connections are clueless, or this guy ran like he has never done in the morning. In either case I would find it tough to take this guy at a short price...especially a 6% trainer and a 9% jock.

MANIQUI looks to be shipping in with a purpose. Very nice series of works at TDN. May have been facing better in Florida. Trainer/jock combo has worked well together.

I expect AMERICAN MINER to improve off first start (WHITNEY sticks) and OUTFLANKER'S TOKEN draws back outside and should run better today.

$20 WP #6
$20 Exacta 6/7-8
$10 Exacta 7-8/6

[sq764]

With Validator, I come up with :

6/4/3 with 8 closely rated.. 6 Looks like he has a large speed advantage..

I would play:

$40 exactas 6 over 3,4
$5 trifecta 3,6 with 3,6 with 4,8

[penguinfan]

I'll shoot the roll on the 7 horse.

[The_Knight_Sky]

The noon time weather forecast throws in a curveball,
we may be looking at an off track or at least some kind of moisture in the surface - no matter what the superintendent labels it by post time.

Monday: Thunderstorm, high 83, 60% chance of precipitation.
Monday night: Low 69, 40% chance of precipitation.

[The_Knight_Sky]

6TH RACE MNR JULY 12TH -
$2 PIC THREE (RACES 6-7-8) $2 TRIFECTA $2 PERFECTA

=======================

6 FURLONGS DIRT; MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT; PURSE $25,000.
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 118 lbs.

PROGRAM SELECTIONS: 3 - 6 - 7 - 8

# HORSE NAME ML JOCKEY WT TRAINER MED EQP
-- ---------- -- ------ -- ------- --- ---
1 FUNEWGIE 20/1 TOLENTINO P 118 KINTZ S M L
2 ROSS KABEER 12/1 BRINKLEY D W 118 WELSH G
3 TIME CRAFTER 3/1 QUINONES L M 118 DEMCZYK V
4 ROLLING STORM 10/1 NORWOOD J K 118 NORWOOD J L L
5 YEAR END BONUS 15/1 PARKER D L 118 BAIRD D L
6 MANIQUI 7/2 FELIX J E 118 FORD, JR. S F L
7 OUTFLANKER'S TOKEN 9/2 DUYS D C 118 LAWRENCE W I *L
8 AMERICAN MINER 5/1 WHITNEY D G 118 CARMICHAEL, JR.
9 COOL CAT SAM 8/1 RAMGEET A R 118 CRUMLEY J *L
10 GENERAL MAUK 10/1 PEREIRA O M 118 FINUCANE R

SCRATCHED:
Thelionshare, Deputy's Image, Get Out Happy, Rhodex

__________________________________________________

This is what the field looks like before the scratches.

Of note is the #10 horse - he should run in this field,
even though BRIS past performances has him listed as an AE.

Guessing that's to denote that he drew into the 10 hole.

[wolsons]

Using a short term model from my program (just looking at the last 10 races at the class and distance at MNR), I give a lukewarm nod to the 7, over the 3, 6, and 8. Not seeing much value here, and this is a track that DEMANDS value...

Steve

[Buddha]

It just rained in the area. not sure how much they got at the track, but I would assume it rained there too since it is only about 2 miles from my house.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by wolsons

I give a lukewarm nod to the 7, over the 3, 6, and 8.

- Steve

The 7 horse Outflanker's Token is the other horse getting FTL here.
Owner Duys was unhappy with the regression after
crossing the wire first in his debut, so a barn change ensued.

I do not think there's a racetrack in North America that has
more of these quiet barn changes than does Mountaineer.
Who knows if the new trainer Ray Lawrence jr. employs
the services of a better blacksmith than previous trainer Kuiken does.

Anyway, the 7 horse will be in striking range for at least half the race
and if he bounces back to his debut performance,
it shouldn't surprise anyone at the 9/2 odds.

[Buddha]

Originally posted by The_Knight_Sky
The 7 horse Outflanker's Token is the other horse getting FTL here.
Owner Duys was unhappy with the regression after
crossing the wire first in his debut, so a barn change ensued.

I do not think there's a racetrack in North America that has
more of these quiet barn changes than does Mountaineer.
Who knows if the new trainer Ray Lawrence jr. employs
the services of a better blacksmith than previous trainer Kuiken does.

Anyway, the 7 horse will be in striking range for at least half the race
and if he bounces back to his debut performance,
it shouldn't surprise anyone at the 9/2 odds.

I think it is more of a family thing. Dodie the jock is also the breeder. Joe the owner is Dodie's dad. From what I hear Wray is Dodies fiance. I think Kuiken was just used as the trainer until Wray came back, as I think he has been in Canada

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by Suffolk OTB

MANIQUI looks to be shipping in with a purpose.
Very nice series of works at TDN.

May have been facing better in Florida.
Trainer/jock combo has worked well together.

This one tickles my fancy as this trainer Steve Ford jr. is on my radar watch.

I can site at least two examples of him shipping in from Thistledown and scoring at Chester, WVA.


December 1, 2000 - French Joseph $24.20 to win ( repeats on a class up off a TDN tally )

June 26, 2001 - Gift of a Leader $16.40 to win ( classes up while stretching out of a TDN sprint)

Both of the scores mentioned above had the trainer listed as the owner.
Today's owner is Mateo San Martin, whose live horses often take a lot of money on the board
when his listed trainer is Peter Walder at any east coast track.
I'm expecting the same tote action if he's live - and I don't see why he won't be.

[sjk]

I'd play 6-3-5.

I don't play turf races so through the summer (except Fridays) I usually just play the first couple of races until they get to the turf and then quit. They would get more of my action if they spaced the turf races or had them later in the card.

[schweitz]

$75 exacta 6-7
$25 exacta 7-6

[The_Knight_Sky]

As of 7 pm ET:

NO CHANGES are listed for the 6th at Mountaineer tonight.

Track Conditions: Current Weather-Cloudy, Dirt-Fast

[Buddha]

i guess they didnt get the rain. it must have been a very scattered shower.

[jk3521]

I'll try 7 on top w/3,6,8 in exactas. Throw in the fts in triples .Good Luck to all.

[The_Knight_Sky]

The only cogent opinion I have is that the 3 horse
could very well get leg weary in the final furlong
- if he gets the pace pressure I envision.

I just can't separate the 6 and 7 as both could win this
on their best. Why fool around?

$10 exactas 6,7 with 6,7,8,9,10 (80)

$5 exactas 6,7 with 8,9 (20)

80+20=100

[Buddha]

3-6-7 official order of finish

[BillW]

Originally posted by Buddha
3-6-7 official order of finish

Did you have any real $$$ on it?

[Buddha]

of course not, that would have been too easy. and i didnt have any money on the $19.00 winner that i posted on a site that won the 2nd race. i have had bad luck betting recently, and have backed off on some betting.

[BillW]

Originally posted by Buddha
of course not, that would have been too easy. and i didnt have any money on the $19.00 winner that i posted on a site that won the 2nd race. i have had bad luck betting recently, and have backed off on some betting.

I know the feeling :rolleyes:

[The_Knight_Sky]

Congrats to Buddha and any others who came on on the plus side.

My picks came in second and third under the potential bounce candidate
who didn't bounce second out. So - 100 for me on this one.


The chart is now up for the race:
CLICK: Mountaineer's 6th (http://www.tsnhorse.com/cgi-bin/instant.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MNR&date=2004-07-12&race=6)


Maniqui ran well for Steve Ford jr. and took in a lot of money
for owner Mateo St. Martin. So much that he wound up the fave!
Outflanker's Token got an overland trip and is worth following next out.

What else did you guys learn from this race?

[JustMissed]

Thanks Buddha.

My son had to work late tonight but I handed him the pp's as he walked in the door. His favorite spot play for MSW is second out after a 'justmissed' debut.

We live about ten minutes from Tampa Bay Downs and made it just in time to make your bets except we added the 7 to the place slot and dropped the 8.

Thanks again, if you are snake bit about betting, just send me your picks and I'll be glad to take the rubber band off.

JustMissed
;)

P.S. We missed the Mark and Nancy show. What were their picks?

P.S. The 3 was 1st Prime Power, the 6 was 2nd Prime Power and the 7 was 3rd Prime Power if anyone is keeping score.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Any of you guys up for a formal contest next Monday evening? :)

I will serve as official scorer
and I can throw in a small prize to the champ
if there's a positive response to the format of the $100 cyberdollar
type of contest that I run on my other forum.

At the time of posting, the Monday evening entries at Mountaineer
are not up yet. Should it be a featured turf race,
it will fly as a "turf only" contest.

What do you guys think?

[JustMissed]

Thanks for the offer Knight, sounds like fun but we play from the TBD simulcast and don't usually make up our final bet til after the Mark and Nancy Show with about 1 minute to go.

Good luck and keep an eye on Buddah, he has become quite an excellent handicapper.

JM

[The_Knight_Sky]

Originally posted by JustMissed
... usually make up our final bet til after the Mark and Nancy Show with about 1 minute to go.

Being the crowd pleaser that I am,
I'll keep the thread open right up until post time. :D

[sjk]

Did anyone see the last race on Friday? Are those fractions really true?

[Buddha]

probably, the track is fairly deep, and going routes of ground there are usually very slow fractions for the cheap horses.