Three Year Old Horses

[whodoyoulike]

I think most people would agree that older (4up) horses have an advantage over 3yo's competing in the same race until a certain time of the 3yo career. I've always tried to notice the changes from 2yo to a 3yo which I don't think it's an easy observation except maybe racing greenly and the physical maturing. And, they're forming their running style.

Since, it's now August when is that time of year in general terms?

Is there something in the 3yo development which handicappers should be paying special attention?

[VigorsTheGrey]

With the phenom of Laoban and Paola Queen outrunning their huge odds recently, I'm wondering if this is related to horses that have peaked earlier in the year now regressing somewhat in their form cycle?

How this relates to 3 year olds versus Upward horses may be that fresh horses or late blooming 3 year old may be now entering a peak cycle starting in August and may be more competitive with now regressing Upward horses, so it is a function of late development and seasonal form cycle start and end times more than age per say..

..still other handicappers prefer older runners to 3 year olds when racing together, not withstanding...

[whodoyoulike]

... “He's shot up a couple inches, so we're going to take it easy with him right now,” O'Neill said. “He came out of the Haskell tired, but as free and loose as he's ever been. We just don't want to put a saddle and rider on him while he's going through this growth spurt.” ...

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/thoroughbred-racing/growth-spurt-sends-nyquist-swimming-san-luis-rey/

Anyone wish to comment on O'Neill's comment that he doesn't want to "put a saddle and rider on him during this growth spurt." I would think between their 2yo - early 3yo growth there would be several spurts.

[coachv30]

With the phenom of Laoban and Paola Queen outrunning their huge odds recently, I'm wondering if this is related to horses that have peaked earlier in the year now regressing somewhat in their form cycle?

How this relates to 3 year olds versus Upward horses may be that fresh horses or late blooming 3 year old may be now entering a peak cycle starting in August and may be more competitive with now regressing Upward horses, so it is a function of late development and seasonal form cycle start and end times more than age per say..

..still other handicappers prefer older runners to 3 year olds when racing together, not withstanding...

In the case of Paola Queen as well as other 3 yo's, I think running them two turns as they begin to physically mature is one of the best strategies a trainer can use as well as something you should keep an eye on as a handicapper. Look at their EARLY form in those races and wait for the move to one turn.

I had $10 Win on Paola Queen yesterday (wish it would have been more). If you look at his past 4 races (which were routes) and scratch out the stretch call and the finish of all four of them races, you will see tremendous ONE TURN form. He enters Yesterday at 7F and lights up the toteboard.

If I'm not mistaken, the :9: Black Eagle on Friday met the same criteria in race 1 and paid $32.80 to win. I will try to find the pp's and post them.

Here is my ticket for :1: Paola Queen.

[coachv30]

Here's the PP for Paola Queen

[coachv30]

PP for Black Eagle

[VigorsTheGrey]

In the case of Paola Queen as well as other 3 yo's, I think running them two turns as they begin to physically mature is one of the best strategies a trainer can use as well as something you should keep an eye on as a handicapper. Look at their EARLY form in those races and wait for the move to one turn.



Thank you for the angle here...I'll start marking my form in this fashion...looking for the cutback to one turn is huge for 3yr old that showed pace in early one- turners...

I like the turf marathon cutback to mile angle also...thanks again...

[chadk66]

honestly it varies a lot from horse to horse.

[EMD4ME]

Here's the PP for Paola Queen


Last race, DEAD RAIL against a closer's bias.

If anyone truly watched her race 3 back at GP, Paola would've been 5/1 and
"Tracks" 5/1. Not kidding.

She did win because it was a suicide collapse and she had the deepest lungs in a trotter like last 1/8 but she was DEFINITELY playable.

I agree.