View Full Version : Scratching = Handicapping
Matt Bryan
08-06-2016, 06:18 PM
This may have been covered before in the forum, but I 'typically' start the handicapping process prior to race day, and make adjustments accordingly, e.g. rain, etc. You know, I see key horses (in terms of race shape) scratching frequently. I don't mean the scratched horse would have won the race necessarily, of course, but would have forced a fast early pace, etc. I see it all the time. I say this in the wake of the West Virginia Derby, which seemed to me tailored for Cupid after the Economic Model and Mo Tom scratch. I'm sure I don't need to explain my frustration involving scratching to seasoned players. I do wonder however, if other things are happening. Aside from the obvious, which means that 'yes' scratching is like rain or any other unforeseen event from a bettor's standpoint, and should be dealt with accordingly, do you ever find yourself wondering why? Are you annoyed by "Reason Unavailable"? I sure am, but not because I have to make adjustments, or entirely pass the race. I just find it very convenient or coincidental.
green80
08-06-2016, 06:41 PM
if a horse scratches after scratch time, usually the day before the race, a vet has to scratch the horse for a valid reason. I would rather deal with a scratch than have the horse not run his best due to illness or injury.
NorCalGreg
08-06-2016, 08:26 PM
if a horse scratches after scratch time, usually the day before the race, a vet has to scratch the horse for a valid reason. I would rather deal with a scratch than have the horse not run his best due to illness or injury.
So normal "scratch time" is appx 24 hours before--or pre-race. A supposedly competent horseman declared his entry fit for racing. Where in that 24 hour period does the vet see that horse---morning of?
I'm curious if a record is kept of any of the repeat offenders. Not to mention casual fans (I mean who ever gave a sh*t about them?) but the regular BETTORS are seriously inconvenienced to put it mildly.
Hand to God...it's gotten so bad, many times I don't even handicap normally. Try to get a handle on pace pressure, overall race shape...come to find out the entire scenario blows up with a couple scratches, as Matt was saying.
I've gone to interchangeable spot plays--doesn't really matter who's in or out
that way.--NCG
green80
08-06-2016, 09:45 PM
There is a vet check in the morning of all the horses racing that day, usually 2-4 hours before the first post. When a horse doesn't pass, that is when you see a late scratch labeled "Veterinarian". You may also see some late scratches labeled "stewards". That would be for some rule violation, such as the horse didn't have the proper works or the owner didn't have a current license or something of that nature.
A trainer might scratch his horse before scratch time if he sees a better race coming up soon.
VigorsTheGrey
08-07-2016, 03:28 AM
Where does one find info on which horses were scratched last entry time for today's race?
Does the Form have a regular section that lists these horses when entered the next time? (today, any day)
green80
08-07-2016, 08:51 AM
Where does one find info on which horses were scratched last entry time for today's race?
Does the Form have a regular section that lists these horses when entered the next time? (today, any day)
If you mean horses that are running today that were scratched last time out, the overnight is the only place that I know that will indicate that. Instead on a run date it will have a scratch date. For example it will have R43 vs S43.
JohnGalt1
08-07-2016, 10:58 AM
Bris programs at Bris.com used to list the scratched horses at the bottom and why they were scratched.
On important factor to consider is if we know a horse was vet scratched from a $20k claiming race and is now running in a $10k race many would bet the class drop/back class, but we would know the vet scratched for a reason and stay away, especially if no workouts since the scratch.
Unfortunately they recently stopped listing this list.
I'd be interested if it's available anywhere else.
VigorsTheGrey
08-07-2016, 11:09 AM
If you mean horses that are running today that were scratched last time out, the overnight is the only place that I know that will indicate that. Instead on a run date it will have a scratch date. For example it will have R43 vs S43.
Thank you. I will look on the overnights...what does the R43 versus the S43 indicate?
Stoleitbreezing
08-07-2016, 11:37 AM
Bris programs at Bris.com used to list the scratched horses at the bottom and why they were scratched.
On important factor to consider is if we know a horse was vet scratched from a $20k claiming race and is now running in a $10k race many would bet the class drop/back class, but we would know the vet scratched for a reason and stay away, especially if no workouts since the scratch.
Unfortunately they recently stopped listing this list.
I'd be interested if it's available anywhere else.
Equibase premium pps I get list if the horse was scratched recently and the reason. I've found this a very useful tool in my handicapping.
green80
08-07-2016, 12:15 PM
Thank you. I will look on the overnights...what does the R43 versus the S43 indicate?
If it has a r number that means it ran on the 43rd day of the meet. If it has an s number that means it was scratched on the 43rd day of the meet. These numbers are also used for preference if a race overfills, a R40 would have preference over a r43. If you see just a number such as 23 for example, that means the horses papers were turned in on that date. This is the preference system used a most tracks now but last time I looked there were a few that operate a little differently. If you pick up a condition book at any track it should tell you how their date system operates.
green80
08-07-2016, 12:21 PM
Bris programs at Bris.com used to list the scratched horses at the bottom and why they were scratched.
On important factor to consider is if we know a horse was vet scratched from a $20k claiming race and is now running in a $10k race many would bet the class drop/back class, but we would know the vet scratched for a reason and stay away, especially if no workouts since the scratch.
Unfortunately they recently stopped listing this list.
I'd be interested if it's available anywhere else.
If you wager online most adw's have the scratches with the reason. Twinspires has the scratches with the reason for example.
I wouldn't read to much into this without any further info however, you don't know if that horse that the vet scratched was lame or just was coughing a little that day. I would be better to look at the vet's list at the track, those horses have to have a decent work before they can run again.
senortout
08-07-2016, 12:28 PM
It is only the horses that are scratched at the gate that bother my handicapping.
green80
08-07-2016, 12:35 PM
It is only the horses that are scratched at the gate that bother my handicapping.
That is usually because the jockey convinces the track vet that after warming up the horse is too sore to run, unless the horse flips or otherwise injures himself in the gate. Now, by rule, if a horse flips in the saddling paddock or gate the vet will scratch it, injured or not.
jdhanover
08-07-2016, 12:48 PM
We scratched a week a go to be in a 'better' race (though result wasnt good). But this was because the 'better' race did not fill ... and was then, a few days later, re-set for a couple of days out (thus we scratched back into the race we originally wanted).
Not everything is because of ill intent or injury.
green80
08-07-2016, 01:02 PM
I don't know where you are running, but in most states a scratch is irrevocable, you can't unscratch or get back in if you really scratched. I'm not saying it didn't happen, but I have never seen such a case. What state was that in? I may need to learn something new.
VigorsTheGrey
08-07-2016, 02:21 PM
I guess the answer to my questions might be found in some track instructions somewhere...a manual of protocol, I don't know the name of the manual...but anyway here goes....
Can a trainer enter then scratch for any reason up to a cutoff time?
Also, was talking to a trainer regarding horses on the ALSO ELIGIBLE lists...apparently, a trainer may decide not to run even if his charge draws in at the trainer's discretion...was looking for the details regarding ALSO Es.
There is a common idea that some very good plays come from mounts that draw in after scratches...but that topic is somewhat tangent to our circle of discussion here....
green80
08-07-2016, 03:31 PM
I guess the answer to my questions might be found in some track instructions somewhere...a manual of protocol, I don't know the name of the manual...but anyway here goes....
Can a trainer enter then scratch for any reason up to a cutoff time?
Also, was talking to a trainer regarding horses on the ALSO ELIGIBLE lists...apparently, a trainer may decide not to run even if his charge draws in at the trainer's discretion...was looking for the details regarding ALSO Es.
There is a common idea that some very good plays come from mounts that draw in after scratches...but that topic is somewhat tangent to our circle of discussion here....
Answer question 1: Usually yes, with the stewards ok, usually not hard if you don't make a habit of it.
Answer question 2: If you draw in, you have the option of running but don't have to
There is no reasonable basis for why a horse of the AE list would be any better than the rest of the field. Sometimes it was just the best horse and just didn't draw in. They all have to meet the conditions of the race. I think that sometimes people just overlook the AE's that draw in.
The answer to all these questions would be found in the RULES OF RACING in your state. This booklet us usually published online and in hard copy. You would just need to contact whatever board or commission governs racing in your state and get a copy, not hard to do. Let me know where you are located and I will point you in the right direction. I will say also that some tracks are a little easier and don't follow every rule to the letter.
mountainman
08-07-2016, 03:53 PM
At mnr, field's can scratch down to 8 betting interests before trainers incur penalty, or vet reasons are required. And any runner drawing in from the ae is indeed expected to run with no special provision to scratch.
"Superman Never Scratches" was probably my best blog and explores touchy issues from the inside and with candor. It's archived on mnr's website under "Patterson's Perspective."
VigorsTheGrey
08-07-2016, 03:59 PM
Answer question 2: If you draw in, you have the option of running but don't have to
There is no reasonable basis for why a horse of the AE list would be any better than the rest of the field. Sometimes it was just the best horse and just didn't draw in. They all have to meet the conditions of the race. I think that sometimes people just overlook the AE's that draw in.
The trainer I was speaking with seem to suggest that there might be an edge here or perhaps even a "live" horse based on the idea that the timing of the option to run or not is late and allows a trainer to evaluate his horse with the remaining entries and compare his chances for success now versus a race down the road...
...so the trainer believed that "if an A/E horse drew in and stayed in, then one could be fairly certain that the trainer liked his chances, otherwise he would scratch in lieu of a more suitable event....
green80
08-07-2016, 04:11 PM
maybe some of the database guys can see how often a AE horse draws in and wins compared to the regular outside field horses.
whodoyoulike
08-07-2016, 04:35 PM
Where does one find info on which horses were scratched last entry time for today's race?
Does the Form have a regular section that lists these horses when entered the next time? (today, any day)
We've discussed this before and I think a number of track websites provides the reason for the scratches. If I recall correctly the info was under the horseman tab on the website. I've used it before to check out stuff but it was in PDF format which is not very user friendly. There's also a number of other good info items in that periodic (I mean it's not a daily) report if you want to check it out.
whodoyoulike
08-08-2016, 03:28 PM
Where does one find info on which horses were scratched last entry time for today's race?
Does the Form have a regular section that lists these horses when entered the next time? (today, any day)
I recall that you've mentioned you're in Cali somewhere. Here is a link from the CHRB's website and as I mentioned individual track websites have their own info. Again, the info is in a PDF format. Don't know when or how often the report is updated. Hope this helps or provides you an idea of what's available.
http://www.chrb.ca.gov/veterinary.html
VigorsTheGrey
08-08-2016, 03:49 PM
I recall that you've mentioned you're in Cali somewhere. Here is a link from the CHRB's website and as I mentioned individual track websites have their own info. Again, the info is in a PDF format. Don't know when or how often the report is updated. Hope this helps or provides you an idea of what's available.
http://www.chrb.ca.gov/veterinary.html
Thank you...interesting website with lots of official information and reports...will place it on Cool Racing Links...I'm going to scan track websites for vets list as well...
whodoyoulike
08-08-2016, 04:02 PM
Thank you...interesting website with lots of official information and reports...will place it on Cool Racing Links...I'm going to scan track websites for vets list as well...
I hope it helps. Just keep asking about things you're interested in because I've looked at a lot of things over the years and I'll try to help you when I can.
VigorsTheGrey
08-08-2016, 04:13 PM
I hope it helps. Just keep asking about things you're interested in because I've looked at a lot of things over the years and I'll try to help you when I can.
I found the info on the track websites under Horseman's areas....problem is...what I need is to know is if an entry was scratched last time,the reason and is entered in today's races---then how does one cross check all the days entries against the vet list?
The vet list show horses by name or date listed, one who have to do a lot of manual work to find out which of today's horses were scratched by vet....it seems to me that a I once saw a listing in the Daily Racing Form that gave out this current info but I could be mistaken...
whodoyoulike
08-08-2016, 05:02 PM
I found the info on the track websites under Horseman's areas....problem is...what I need is to know is if an entry was scratched last time,the reason and is entered in today's races---then how does one cross check all the days entries against the vet list?
The vet list show horses by name or date listed, one who have to do a lot of manual work to find out which of today's horses were scratched by vet....it seems to me that a I once saw a listing in the Daily Racing Form that gave out this current info but I could be mistaken...
Using the Calracing website and this is not a fool proof solution but for horses which have run in Cali only, if you enter the horse's name in the horse box it will list all races for that horse. You can then compare the list with the horse's pp's and note where the horse didn't run and you'll find by clicking that date that the horse was scratched. I would think if the horse doesn't show up in the vet list for that date then I'd think the scratch wasn't a vet scratch.
This will be a good test of your patience. Like I stated the PDF format is not user friendly. Btw, I've never thought of what you're concerned about.
VigorsTheGrey
08-08-2016, 06:46 PM
Btw, I've never thought of what you're concerned about.
Sometimes I am not clear about what it is that I am after....in this case, if there are 10 races at Del Mar this coming Saturday, I would like to know if there are any horses in those races that have been scratched recently by the vet...
I want to know this because maybe I would not use those horses in my exotics....I would like to place a note next to the horses running lines reminding me that these horses are possible throwouts.
EMD4ME
08-08-2016, 06:53 PM
Sometimes I am not clear about what it is that I am after....in this case, if there are 10 races at Del Mar this coming Saturday, I would like to know if there are any horses in those races that have been scratched recently by the vet...
I want to know this because maybe I would not use those horses in my exotics....I would like to place a note next to the horses running lines reminding me that these horses are possible throwouts.
If you use DRF's Formulator, just go to scratch board and it shows all recent scratches for various reasons.
If you use TimeFormUS, they have a nice visual feature of showing the vet scratch above the running line. Easy to see and remind you.
VigorsTheGrey
08-08-2016, 09:32 PM
If you use DRF's Formulator, just go to scratch board and it shows all recent scratches for various reasons.
If you use TimeFormUS, they have a nice visual feature of showing the vet scratch above the running line. Easy to see and remind you.
There we go! I knew it must be somewhere to be had...it's a pretty basic idea but kind of round-about to get to....Guess I'll have to give TimeFormUS a close look-see. I spend a lot buying the Daily Racing Form...EMD4ME, do you buy and use the Racing Form as well?
johnhannibalsmith
08-08-2016, 09:49 PM
You're actually probably better off - in my opinion anyway - using the vet lists if it really means something to your handicapping and looking for horses marked as 'must work'. Usually it is a notation like an asterisk if not written out in the paper ledgers on-track, but probably the online lists make a note somehow. Those are the horses that are scratched for cause more often than not. They must work to demonstrate soundness before being re-entered and often subject to post-work scrutiny by track vet. I'd go out on a limb and say 90% of all other vet scratches are just people wanting out of a spot. Walk up, fill out the card (my fave) 'tied up am- treated banamine paste' and it's an auto-scratch unless they want to really bust your chops and run down for a blood sample to test for banamine and nail you for the egregious offense of falsifying a scratch card. Those types are usually on the list for a few entry days and then eligible to be re-entered. Chances are, nothing really happened to warrant concern.
VigorsTheGrey
08-08-2016, 11:29 PM
You're actually probably better off - in my opinion anyway - using the vet lists if it really means something to your handicapping and looking for horses marked as 'must work'. Usually it is a notation like an asterisk if not written out in the paper ledgers on-track, but probably the online lists make a note somehow. Those are the horses that are scratched for cause more often than not. They must work to demonstrate soundness before being re-entered and often subject to post-work scrutiny by track vet. I'd go out on a limb and say 90% of all other vet scratches are just people wanting out of a spot. Walk up, fill out the card (my fave) 'tied up am- treated banamine paste' and it's an auto-scratch unless they want to really bust your chops and run down for a blood sample to test for banamine and nail you for the egregious offense of falsifying a scratch card. Those types are usually on the list for a few entry days and then eligible to be re-entered. Chances are, nothing really happened to warrant concern.
Thanks for your reply...very thought provoking...many new concepts for me...banamine paste...falsifying scratch cards...soundness? Soundness, trying to think of the human equivalent of the concept...such an umbrella term...how is soundness measured, gauged? What does a vet look for, see down the backstretch before loading? What are the signs that a horse needs to be scratched?
johnhannibalsmith
08-08-2016, 11:57 PM
Thanks for your reply...very thought provoking...many new concepts for me...banamine paste...falsifying scratch cards...soundness? Soundness, trying to think of the human equivalent of the concept...such an umbrella term...how is soundness measured, gauged? What does a vet look for, see down the backstretch before loading? What are the signs that a horse needs to be scratched?
I didn't really mean to be thought provoking with the mentions of banamine and falsifying cards - it was more just meant to give an example of why a 'vet scratch' as registered by EQB and reported doesn't necessarily give you much information to use. If you want to scratch out of a race and can't just scratch because it is a stake or you are an AE or if your track is an 'enter to run' with no real scratch time in the traditional sense - then short of pleading with stews to let you out, the best way to get out is a vet scratch.
A vet scratch can be something as mundane as 'sick - temp' or 'off-feed' or as explicit as 'bowed tendon'. The ones that are generally those that are more mundane, such as the examples I've given (I chose the tied-up one because obviously if you treated with banamine you can't then be forced to run) have minimal jail time on the vet's list. You miss a few entry days. You don't need to prove that your horse is eating again or that the temperature went down. Track vets have better things to do dealing with real problems, and those are the ones you want to look out for, in my opinion.
Most people won't scratch and use unsoundness as the reason even if it is the case since it entails a higher standard of scrutiny, so most of those come straight from the track vet or I suppose the state vet if he gets a bad one in the test barn after the race. Most of those are going to be late scratches on track. Most of those come in the form of a rider not liking the way one is warming up and bringing it to the track vet for a looksie. Some of the others will be horses that come back lame and make the list walking off the track. Or being vanned off. Some make the list during pre-race inspections and are scratched from the race.
Vets are looking for lameness. Or, to a lesser extent a horse that is clearly 'off' while perhaps not being outright lame in the sense that most mean. With gate scratches that is probably what you will hear more than anything - 'he was off in that right front...' - something like that. To say he was lame in that context really implies a near limper usually, which thankfully doesn't happen all that often.
I tried to cover your questions. Not sure that I did. Not really too sure what you are after exactly, but just thought I'd chime in to caution against assuming that a vet scratch was itself an indication of something amiss with the horse. Often it can mean the opposite. Trainer wanted out the other day to run in this spot today for a good reason.
johnhannibalsmith
08-09-2016, 12:16 AM
Sorry I stepped away right after posting and neglected to preview for any edits but I should be clarifying one aspect that differentiates what I am saying than cases of jurisdictions like I assume that moutainman is referring to in West Virginia (I think that was this thread I read a post of his about it).
I'm talking about cases in jurisdictions that are, what at least used to be known as (not sure if it is still referred to as such), 'Enter To Run'. Basically, the implication is that you can't scratch without a reason. Other places you will see 'trainer' scratches. I'm assuming that in the case mountainman was describing (can scratch so long as the field retains a minimum field size of eight, I believe) that those scratches (above the field size threshold) would be considered 'trainer' scratches. In the 'enter to run' scenario, basically, you need to either be out because you are an A. E., or because there are A. E.s in the field and you are out before designated scratch time, it is a stakes race and you scratch before the stakes scratch time, or you get a vet scratch. I think that covers them all, but I'm typing faster than I am thinking. In any event, if you want out and you are in the body of the vast majority of races carded, you basically need to be a vet scratch. Which means that a lot of 'vet scratches' are trainer scratches dressed up as vet scratches. That was the scenario, and in a nutshell, the point that I am trying to convey when it comes to blindly relying on the listing of 'vet scratch' as a cause for concern.
VigorsTheGrey
08-09-2016, 12:42 AM
You have succeeded in changing my viewpoint and expanding on my, no doubt, shallow understanding of the intricacies and anomalies of the scratching process! There's a lot more to this than I previously realized...who would have thunk that horses are routinely scratched by the vet that are not ill at all :cool: :eek: :faint: :faint: back to the drawing board for me...I guess this really is an insiders' game in some respects at least...sounds like the vets wear a few hats, and their own type of blinkers...part Doctor, part....??
johnhannibalsmith
08-09-2016, 12:50 AM
Let me also clarify that for most of those that you are referring to, the vet himself doesn't have a lot of say in the matter. It's just the category that falls into if you fill out a scratch card for that reason, he or she may come down and look in the feed tub or ask a few questions, but there isn't much he/she can do if you fill out a card and say your horse is sick or not eating or tied up or whatever. He/she might doubt it (hence my semi-sarcastic mention of testing a scratched horse for a claimed treatment of banamine), but he's got enough to do getting horses off the list that are working and pre-race exams that even if there was a truth serum, he probably just doesn't have the time or will to administer it. He does his due diligence by stopping by the barn (maybe), signs the card if needed, and the stews then sign off on it as 'out'. This isn't an indictment of the stewards or of the track vet. It's more an indictment of the belief that passing rules will achieve a desired result. Its no wonder places like WV have looser rules than the strict enter to run system. It just promotes this kind of maneuvering and diverts needed manpower chasing nothing but to keep up appearances.
VigorsTheGrey
08-09-2016, 01:11 AM
Let me also clarify that for most of those that you are referring to, the vet himself doesn't have a lot of say in the matter. It's just the category that falls into if you fill out a scratch card for that reason, he or she may come down and look in the feed tub or ask a few questions, but there isn't much he/she can do if you fill out a card and say your horse is sick or not eating or tied up or whatever. He/she might doubt it (hence my semi-sarcastic mention of testing a scratched horse for a claimed treatment of banamine), but he's got enough to do getting horses off the list that are working and pre-race exams that even if there was a truth serum, he probably just doesn't have the time or will to administer it. He does his due diligence by stopping by the barn (maybe), signs the card if needed, and the stews then sign off on it as 'out'. This isn't an indictment of the stewards or of the track vet. It's more an indictment of the belief that passing rules will achieve a desired result. Its no wonder places like WV have looser rules than the strict enter to run system. It just promotes this kind of maneuvering and diverts needed manpower chasing nothing but to keep up appearances.
Well said! And I nominate your post for "Best Post of the Year" Kudos!
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