Frosted

[RunForTheRoses]

Got a negative 8 on TG, negative 1.75 approximately on Sheets. Unheard of numbers, ran his coulones off. Question is, what about tomorrow at short price?

[CincyHorseplayer]

One of the ironies of the game IMO. You have stars that are attractive to non players but as a player I am content to watch and hope to see greatness just because than plunk down a huge sum for pennies. I am about a 1 time per 100 bets guy for taking something 1-1 or less. Your call bubba..

[Zaf]

Got a negative 8 on TG, negative 1.75 approximately on Sheets. Unheard of numbers, ran his coulones off. Question is, what about tomorrow at short price?

Is that one of the best all time numbers on TG ?

Z

[RunForTheRoses]

Is that one of the best all time numbers on TG ?

Z

I believe so, maybe Ghostzapper approached that.

[RunForTheRoses]

This is a two turn route not a one turn mile. Will probably try to beat in P4 on modest ticket. Also different track but trainer has been hot.

[cj]

This is a two turn route not a one turn mile. Will probably try to beat in P4 on modest ticket. Also different track but trainer has been hot.


I'm all about trying to beat heavy favorites, but he has won the G1 Wood, the G2 PA Derby, and a G2 at Meydan around two turns.

[Donttellmeshowme]

Got a negative 8 on TG, negative 1.75 approximately on Sheets. Unheard of numbers, ran his coulones off. Question is, what about tomorrow at short price?


Wouldnt play him? Bounce?

[RunForTheRoses]

I'm all about trying to beat heavy favorites, but he has won the G1 Wood, the G2 PA Derby, and a G2 at Meydan around two turns.

I know, just sayin he might only run neg 5 around two which would crush these anyway, probably one to watch. like to see him hook up with Chrome.

[RunForTheRoses]

Wouldnt play him? Bounce?

He could probably bounce quite a lot and still win, he's had plenty of rest, after a nights rest for me I will probably still play a small P4 trying to beat him, an action bet, but mainly focus elsewhere. Not a bad Saturday, rest of SPA, MTNR, DM...

[Redboard]

At 3/5 bet against. Effinex beat him in the last BCC. Noble Bird could very well be the lone speed here.

[v j stauffer]

I believe so, maybe Ghostzapper approached that.

I can remember a couple negative 7's.

Midnight Lute in the BC Sprint at Monmouth.

And the Pletcher 3 yo filly who won big at both Gulfstream and Saratoga 2 or 3 years ago.

Need help with her name.

[cj]

I can remember a couple negative 7's.

Midnight Lute in the BC Sprint at Monmouth.

And the Pletcher 3 yo filly who won big at both Gulfstream and Saratoga 2 or 3 years ago.

Need help with her name.

Must be Dreaming of Julia...doubt she ran a -7 at 2, had to be the Gulfstream Oaks where she won by like 15 or 20.

[lamboguy]

what a performance, you got to love it

[Secondbest]

That was easy

[Zaf]

Wow :ThmbUp:

Z

[cj]

Can't wait to make that Speed Figure. Probably won't be near his 136, more like 130, but that is just a guess.

[bobphilo]

Is that one of the best all time numbers on TG ?

Z
Negative 8.7 in the Met Mile. Not just one of the best but THE highest in the history of TG figures. Beyer gave him a 123.
Ghoatzapper's Met Mile was something like negative 6 or 7.
Can't wait to see what he earned for the Whitney. He did it with such ease. If he keeps up this form he's HOTY.

[bobphilo]

At 3/5 bet against. Effinex beat him in the last BCC. Noble Bird could very well be the lone speed here.
At 3/5 I didn't bet him but I definitely would not bet against him. He's just too good. I just sat back and enjoyed the greatness.

[Doza]

I know, just sayin he might only run neg 5 around two which would crush these anyway, probably one to watch. like to see him hook up with Chrome.

He hooked up with Chrome already in Dubai. Where Chrome beat nobody.

[cj]

He hooked up with Chrome already in Dubai. Where Chrome beat nobody.

Hard to say what difference Lasix will make though.

[RunForTheRoses]

He hooked up with Chrome already in Dubai. Where Chrome beat nobody.

That is a puzzling, especially since he had a Dubai prep and got a 125 on TFUS. However, I wouldn't be too absolutist on that one race, different country. Lasix. Also, Kiaran is streaky as heck, check it out.

[bobphilo]

He hooked up with Chrome already in Dubai. Where Chrome beat nobody.
That was not Frosted at his best.Would love to see a rematch. In his current form I'd take him over anybody, including Chrome.

[biggestal99]

I know, just sayin he might only run neg 5 around two which would crush these anyway, probably one to watch. like to see him hook up with Chrome.

Last time in Dubai. Cc crushed him at 10f.

Gonna love to see the rematch.

Allan

[biggestal99]

That was not Frosted at his best.Would love to see a rematch. In his current form I'd take him over anybody, including Chrome.

How many times has frosted won at 10f?

Allan

[cj]

Ran a 130 TimeformUS Speed Figure today.

[ronsmac]

Negative 8.7 in the Met Mile. Not just one of the best but THE highest in the history of TG figures. Beyer gave him a 123.
Ghoatzapper's Met Mile was something like negative 6 or 7.
Can't wait to see what he earned for the Whitney. He did it with such ease. If he keeps up this form he's HOTY.Maybe his sample should be saved for future testing the way it is done in the Tour de France. His improvement has been so great that it's a little hard to believe.

[pandy]

Hopefully Chrome and Frosted stay sound, great match up.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

Maybe his sample should be saved for future testing the way it is done in the Tour de France. His improvement has been so great that it's a little hard to believe.

That's a bold stance.

[CincyHorseplayer]

At 3/5 I didn't bet him but I definitely would not bet against him. He's just too good. I just sat back and enjoyed the greatness.

Took my words Bob. Absolutely. Hands were frozen on him and he ran fast every step and still drew away. Can't wait til some later confrontations!

[ronsmac]

That's a bold stance.You think? It doesn't seem very bold at all. I guess it's possible Frosted went from a pretty good 3y0 to a horse who ran one of if not the best 1m race of all time , through natural means.

[Fager Fan]

Negative 8.7 in the Met Mile. Not just one of the best but THE highest in the history of TG figures. Beyer gave him a 123.
Ghoatzapper's Met Mile was something like negative 6 or 7.
Can't wait to see what he earned for the Whitney. He did it with such ease. If he keeps up this form he's HOTY.

This is why these numbers don't mean a whole lot. Who wants to take Frosted over Ghostzapper? Particularly in a series of races throughout their career? I'm loving Frosted right now but he's a totally different horse in the last 2 races. He hasn't been consistently that good and has a lot of losses.

[Alwaysonpoint36]

You think? It doesn't seem very bold at all. I guess it's possible Frosted went from a pretty good 3y0 to a horse who ran one of if not the best 1m race of all time , through natural means.

It's not like he went from nw2l to beating up graded company. Shenanigans are doubtful....if he continues we ain't gonna see him race at 5 which is a shame. He's a real nice horse.

[ronsmac]

It's not like he went from nw2l to beating up graded company. Shenanigans are doubtful....if he continues we ain't gonna see him race at 5 which is a shame. He's a real nice horse.With Godolphin I'm always suspicious. Espcially after the camel jockey controversies, the alledged endurance race cheating and of course the steroid scandal in England. Maybe they're clean but to look at them with skepticism makes sense. Horse racing is a pretty dirty sport and horses don't win the Met by 14 lengths very often. Lol

[anotherCAfan]

Impressive win -- but we'll see how he does at 10 furlongs at The Great Race Place. Don't think Frosted has ever been west of Lexington?

[pandy]

Frosted came into this year with a total of 13 career races in his first two seasons. This year, as a four year old, he has run 4 times with 3 wins and yes he has improved. That is not at all surprising. Many horses don't peak until four, and some until 5. And it's not like Frosted went from a claimer to a top horse. He won a GR1 and a GR2 and he ran against one of the top three year olds of all time, or he would've had more black type.

Unfortunately, we don't see this scenario often, like we did years ago, because of injuries and early retirement. There were many top shelf horses that stopped racing at two or three years old that would have gone on and run the best races of their career if they had made it to four. That's why we don't have the great handicap races. No one wants to race their horses anymore, they baby them or go for the breeding money.

[letswastemoney]

Frosted ran fine in the Kentucky Derby, Belmont and Travers. I'm not sold he can't get 10 furlongs.

He threw in clunkers in the Breeders' Cup and Dubai World Cup, but I can overlook them.

[Mc990]

Impressive win -- but we'll see how he does at 10 furlongs at The Great Race Place. Don't think Frosted has ever been west of Lexington?

Yup... Exactly. I really hope he makes the gate for the classic. He's probably 50/50 at best to do so though. I'm guessing he backed up quite a bit today. Maybe close to his career top prior to the Met.

He's never been at his best at 10f... East/Midwest horses are always up against it shipping west for the BC... He's sitting 0-2-X even though it may not be that by definition since he's most likely training up to BC.

Has the makings of a short price toss. I'd lay up to -800 against a classic win

[Cratos]

How good was Frosted Whitney? It might be difficult to tell, but the following numbers from his effort in the final turn says a lot.

Using Trakus data his final turn performance:

• His run distance around the turn = 1,536.4 feet (+51.4)
• His turn velocity was 57.12 FT/Sec
• His turn acceleration was 39% greater than the average Saratoga sprinter’s turn acceleration
• He burnt approximately 119,000 calories for his work effort in the turn
• His turn impact due to side force was +.21 seconds

Saratoga Weather at the time of Frosted race:

Temperature – 81.9 degrees
Humidity – 81%
Precipitation – 0
Wind – 0 MPH

Note: There wasn’t any resistance calculations made to Frosted performance numbers.

[dilanesp]

I really, really like what Frosted has become and as of now, I would make him the favorite in the BC Classic.

One mistake they may be making is not getting a race over the track at Santa Anita. They are discussing running in the Woodward or the JCGC. Santa Anita is quite a bit harder than Belmont and Saratoga and I think Frosted may like it with his bursts of awesome speed, but he and his connections might benefit from a race over the track. Plenty of east coast types get beat when they come out here first time out.

[Secondbest]

How good was Frosted Whitney? It might be difficult to tell, but the following numbers from his effort in the final turn says a lot.

Using Trakus data his final turn performance:

• His run distance around the turn = 1,536.4 feet (+51.4)
• His turn velocity was 57.12 FT/Sec
• His turn acceleration was 39% greater than the average Saratoga sprinter’s turn acceleration
• He burnt approximately 119,000 calories for his work effort in the turn
• His turn impact due to side force was +.21 seconds

Saratoga Weather at the time of Frosted race:

Temperature – 81.9 degrees
Humidity – 81%
Precipitation – 0
Wind – 0 MPH

Note: There wasn’t any resistance calculations made to Frosted performance numbers.
Just curious. How does that compare with last year's Travers or Whitney?

[EMD4ME]

I really, really like what Frosted has become and as of now, I would make him the favorite in the BC Classic.

One mistake they may be making is not getting a race over the track at Santa Anita. They are discussing running in the Woodward or the JCGC. Santa Anita is quite a bit harder than Belmont and Saratoga and I think Frosted may like it with his bursts of awesome speed, but he and his connections might benefit from a race over the track. Plenty of east coast types get beat when they come out here first time out.

I agree. Id forget NY and ship for a race over the SA strip before the BC

[classhandicapper]

Frosted has obviously improved, but I don't think it's clear that he's better than CA Chrome. I also think it's possible that by the time the Classic is run Dortmund could be better than both of them if he wants 10F.

[RunForTheRoses]

I agree. Id forget NY and ship for a race over the SA strip before the BC

Totally agree, all these NY and East Coast horses should at the least get out to SoCal three four weeks in advance and get acclimated. So many good east coast horses have run poorly there by not getting in tune with west coast ways.

[Cratos]

Just curious. How does that compare with last year's Travers or Whitney?
Frosted’s August 29, 2015 1-1/4M Travers Final Turn Performance using Trakus data:

• Frosted’s 1-1/8M time = 1:48.67
• His run distance around the final turn = 1,496.5 feet (+11.5)
• His turn velocity was 55.72 FT/Sec
• His turn acceleration was 34.2% greater than the average Saratoga sprinter’s turn acceleration
• He burnt approximately 118,616 calories (see Note 2) for his work effort in the turn
• His turn impact due to side force was +.20 seconds

Saratoga Weather at the time of Frosted’s race:

Temperature – 78.8 degrees F
Humidity – 47%
Precipitation – 0
Wind – 4.5 MPH SSE

Note 1: There wasn’t any resistance calculations made to Frosted’s performance numbers.

Note 2: Because Frosted ran a slightly shorter turn distance and a slower acceleration, his work decreased somewhat.

Honor Code’s August 8, 2015 1-1/8M Whitney Final Turn Performance using Trakus data:

• Honor Code’s 1-1/8M time = 1:47.83
• His run distance around the turn = 1,496.5 feet (+11.5)
• His turn velocity was 56.30 FT/Sec
• His turn acceleration was 37.1% greater than the average Saratoga sprinter’s turn acceleration
• He burnt approximately 121,305 calories for his work effort in the turn
• His turn impact due to side force was +.21 seconds

Saratoga Weather at the time of Honor Code’s race:

Temperature – 77 degrees F
Humidity – 41%
Precipitation – 0
Wind – 8.1 MPH NE

Note: There wasn’t any resistance calculations made to Honor Code’s performance numbers.

[SuperPickle]

I agree. Id forget NY and ship for a race over the SA strip before the BC

This is so wrong I have to respond.

The idea of a race over the track is almost always a handicapper angle not a trainer one. That's why Pletcher is at Palm Beach Downs, Graham Motion at Fair Hill and KM at Greentree

Not only that this horse has NEVER trainer over the track he races. In Florida he was based at Palm Meadows. In Dubai at the private training center. Prior to the Belmont he trained Saratoga. Even prior to the Whitney he didn't train on the Saratoga main he trained on the synthetic track at Greentree

So basically the recommendations of all the "trainers" is to radically change his training and skip a race with a purse three times as large to get a race over the track even though he's proven he doesn't need it.

Now we know why you guys don't train.

Btw... The bottom is mos likely he'll either take to the track or not and whether he trains on it for 2 weeks or 8 weeks it won't change that.

[Secondbest]

Cratos
Thank you. I appreciate it.

[EMD4ME]

This is so wrong I have to respond.

The idea of a race over the track is almost always a handicapper angle not a trainer one. That's why Pletcher is at Palm Beach Downs, Graham Motion at Fair Hill and KM at Greentree

Not only that this horse has NEVER trainer over the track he races. In Florida he was based at Palm Meadows. In Dubai at the private training center. Prior to the Belmont he trained Saratoga. Even prior to the Whitney he didn't train on the Saratoga main he trained on the synthetic track at Greentree

So basically the recommendations of all the "trainers" is to radically change his training and skip a race with a purse three times as large to get a race over the track even though he's proven he doesn't need it.

Now we know why you guys don't train.

Btw... The bottom is mos likely he'll either take to the track or not and whether he trains on it for 2 weeks or 8 weeks it won't change that.

What about acclimating to the climate?

[sammy the sage]

What about acclimating to the climate?

Made good money back in the day w/the Cal./Fla. challenge and horses shipping in to Fla's humidity in July...Favorites from NY & Cal. and anywhere not locally based WILTED most of the time...alas....those days gone by mostly...

[SuperPickle]

What about acclimating to the climate?

There's nothing he can't acclimated too in two weeks that would be different than 8 weeks. If he's a bad shipper maybe you go a little early.

Either he likes the surface or he doesn't.

Think of it like turf. A horse either likes or doesn't like the turf. An extra race on it doesn't move the needle.

Plus this horse has now won on 4-5 different surfaces. He brings his track with him.

[EMD4ME]

There's nothing he can't acclimated too in two weeks that would be different than 8 weeks. If he's a bad shipper maybe you go a little early.

Either he likes the surface or he doesn't.

Think of it like turf. A horse either likes or doesn't like the turf. An extra race on it doesn't move the needle.

Plus this horse has now won on 4-5 different surfaces. He brings his track with him.

I agree with some of what you said.

I thought Curlin brought his track with him too till the wax, crap etc got to him. Can't agree on the last statement.

I still think an extra time period, affinity, race over a surface can only help, not hurt. Especially when you're talking Cali vs. NY/GP. Totally different surfaces and climates.

Finally, october in NY can be 70 or 50 or 40 degrees. I would prefer staying in Cali for 8 weeks if I were them. To each his own.

[SuperPickle]

I agree with some of what you said.

I thought Curlin brought his track with him too till the wax, crap etc got to him. Can't agree on the last statement.

I still think an extra time period, affinity, race over a surface can only help, not hurt. Especially when you're talking Cali vs. NY/GP. Totally different surfaces and climates.

Finally, october in NY can be 70 or 50 or 40 degrees. I would prefer staying in Cali for 8 weeks if I were them. To each his own.

The other thing I think your leaving out is horse of the year/Eclipse implications. Let's say he gallops again in the JCGC and it turns out he's doesn't like Santa Anita and/or the distance and he loses. But let's say someone other Nyquist or Crome wins the Classic. It still puts him in the mix or older male or horse of the year unless Songbird goes undefeated.

If things are still up in the air in November they could conceivably run him back in the Cigar Mile given its his best trip if it meant winning an Eclipse.

Basically in the Awesome Again you're risking any shot of a title if you lose at a third of purse of the JCGC.

It's almost all risk and little reward.

[Robert Fischer]

I feel that Frosted is going to be a great bet against in the Classic.

Hoping that he makes it to the Classic while still looking like, and being billed as a superstar.

[the little guy]

This is so wrong I have to respond.

The idea of a race over the track is almost always a handicapper angle not a trainer one. That's why Pletcher is at Palm Beach Downs, Graham Motion at Fair Hill and KM at Greentree

Not only that this horse has NEVER trainer over the track he races. In Florida he was based at Palm Meadows. In Dubai at the private training center. Prior to the Belmont he trained Saratoga. Even prior to the Whitney he didn't train on the Saratoga main he trained on the synthetic track at Greentree

So basically the recommendations of all the "trainers" is to radically change his training and skip a race with a purse three times as large to get a race over the track even though he's proven he doesn't need it.

Now we know why you guys don't train.

Btw... The bottom is mos likely he'll either take to the track or not and whether he trains on it for 2 weeks or 8 weeks it won't change that.

I happen to agree with you in general, but I am not sure Frosted NEVER trains ( or trained ) over the Saratoga main track. Even though his posted works have been at the Greentree Training Center where he is stabled, those grounds are adjacent to the Saratoga backstretch, and are accessible by a gate. I believe in interviews Kiaran has stated that he will use both surfaces ( the synthetic at Greentree as well as the Saratoga Main Track ) so I would guess Frosted has galloped over the Main track.

Not a big deal.

[Cratos]

I feel that Frosted is going to be a great bet against in the Classic.

Hoping that he makes it to the Classic while still looking like, and being billed as a superstar.
Frosted ran against the best horse of his generation (and an all-time great) in American Pharoah and finished behind him for 4 of his career 11 losses which indicates to me that against a lesser horse he might have scored a couple more wins.

However that is “yesterday news” and Frosted have grown up; and his breeding is beginning to live up to the saying: “good breeding is always there, but sometimes it shows up late.”

His turn velocity in the Whitney tells me barring injury or illness he will be the GI horse to beat on dirt for the rest of the year at distances from 6F to 1-1/4M; if he is entered to run.

[SuperPickle]

I happen to agree with you in general, but I am not sure Frosted NEVER trains ( or trained ) over the Saratoga main track. Even though his posted works have been at the Greentree Training Center where he is stabled, those grounds are adjacent to the Saratoga backstretch, and are accessible by a gate. I believe in interviews Kiaran has stated that he will use both surfaces ( the synthetic at Greentree as well as the Saratoga Main Track ) so I would guess Frosted has galloped over the Main track.

Not a big deal.

Andy do you any of the backstory about why the Godolphin trainers shunned the Greentree track when they first installed it and now use it a lot? They seem to use it a lot with certain horses.

Also I know KM has mentioned he trains them clockwise on the track to give their legs a break. Do you know if they work them that way too?

Have you ever been on that property? Supposedly its insane.

[Mc990]

Whether or not he likes the track is secondary IMO to the east-west BC ship. Just look at the numbers for east coast horses (excluding the synthetic era). The majority didn't transfer their form.

The real question is, do they run back before the Classic? Conventional wisdom says further regression is coming. If he comes in with 2 regressions off his career top, I'm afraid we'll end up (best case) seeing him in the dirt mile instead.

[Secondbest]

Frosted ran against the best horse of his generation (and an all-time great) in American Pharoah and finished behind him for 4 of his career 11 losses which indicates to me that against a lesser horse he might have scored a couple more wins.

However that is “yesterday news” and Frosted have grown up; and his breeding is beginning to live up to the saying: “good breeding is always there, but sometimes it shows up late.”

His turn velocity in the Whitney tells me barring injury or illness he will be the GI horse to beat on dirt for the rest of the year at distances from 6F to 1-1/4M; if he is entered to run.

Based on the figures you posted and the ease in which he did it.I agree.

[classhandicapper]

Whether or not he likes the track is secondary IMO to the east-west BC ship. Just look at the numbers for east coast horses (excluding the synthetic era). The majority didn't transfer their form.


It's difficult to prove, but it may have more to do with weather than specific locations or surfaces. Over the years I've seen some high quality NY based horses try to ship down to Florida while it was still cool in NY and they ran poorly in the hot weather. Then they ran well again in their next start when shipped back. So it didn't appear that the horse just happened to go off form and I was correlating it to the ship. It apparently was the ship that was the problem or they wouldn't have rebounded so fully and quickly.

I don't doubt that some horses perform better on some dirt surfaces than others, but imo a lot of that stuff is coincidence and people make false correlations.

[EMD4ME]

So Ladies and Gents, anyone going to try and beat him today?

[Robert Fischer]

So Ladies and Gents, anyone going to try and beat him today?

Bradester makes it interesting.

with the baffert horse winning the travers, Frosted will not be a huge underlay in the classic, but I'd still rather see him win this.

[arw629]

So Ladies and Gents, anyone going to try and beat him today?

Been going back and forth on this...first I wasn't going to try to beat him ...then I was...currently I'm not trying to beat him but that might change 3 more times between now and then

[EMD4ME]

Been going back and forth on this...first I wasn't going to try to beat him ...then I was...currently I'm not trying to beat him but that might change 3 more times between now and then

I settled on going with him BUT I didn't like the 1/8 till the wire. He was being held from the 1/4 till the 1/8. Got a nudge to go on and didn't get a good burst when asked.

Yes, I know he went on early and created a fast pace but visually that just bothers me a bit. A little chink in the armor.

I can see him using to pass Bradester and maybe setting up someone to clunk up inside the 1/16.

But for right now, I'm with him despite all that.

[arw629]

I settled on going with him BUT I didn't like the 1/8 till the wire. He was being held from the 1/4 till the 1/8. Got a nudge to go on and didn't get a good burst when asked.

Yes, I know he went on early and created a fast pace but visually that just bothers me a bit. A little chink in the armor.

I can see him using to pass Bradester and maybe setting up someone to clunk up inside the 1/16.

But for right now, I'm with him despite all that.

I feel the same exact way EMD ...check out my pick 5 post and let me know what you think

[Robert Fischer]

I settled on going with him BUT I didn't like the 1/8 till the wire. He was being held from the 1/4 till the 1/8. Got a nudge to go on and didn't get a good burst when asked.

Yes, I know he went on early and created a fast pace but visually that just bothers me a bit. A little chink in the armor.

I can see him using to pass Bradester and maybe setting up someone to clunk up inside the 1/16.

But for right now, I'm with him despite all that.

visualizing(in advance) is a skill few can pull off. :ThmbUp:
I guess it can be called an advanced form of predicting the pace scenario.
You kind of have a pace scenario and then extrapolate from there, using insight of the individual horses and riders from that point on.

Sometimes I'm dead wrong, sometimes I nail it, and sometimes the specific visualized move happens but it is for 2nd/3rd while another horse steals the show (e.g. Bradester or Frosted taking the brunt of the battle and then someone clunking up inside the 1/16 to split).


Sidenote: TFUS picks Bradester with a "Favors Horse On/Near Early Lead" designation. Anecdotally they've had a solid ROI with these types.

[EMD4ME]

I see the same as well (TFUS pace projector). My issue with the pace today is this: in his last 2 starts Bradester has been quarter horsed for 5 strides to get comfortable. Frosted broke great on his own in the last and when frosted saw a horse quarter horsed under him AND a foe directly to his outside , he took off outside at the 11/16's and just took charge of the hot pace. If he doesn't settle today (there will be no cover to settle him as only he & Bradester have speed, he might burn himself outside Bradester too soon.

I think I'm nitpicking as I plan on leaning on him heavily and hate seeing any chinks in a horse's armor in those cases.

[pandy]

I picked Breaking Lucky in the Woodward.

[jk3521]

I know he hasn't won in 2 1/2 years, but .....Samratt.

[Track Phantom]

Mubtaahij

[woodtoo]

Mubtaahij
He's won more in a second and third out of 4 starts $2,086,000.00
than Frosted 3 wins from 4 starts $1,790,000.00
Don't often see that. My play also.

[Robert Fischer]

My guess is Irad will ride patiently, and have Mubtaahij loaded for bear, just in case Frosted stops at the quarter pole or something.

I just don't see Frosted firing a contending race and then KMac wanting Mubtaahij to tackle him...

[porchy44]

In the Woodward Frosted is the "obvious" pick. I give Shaman Ghost an outside chance.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Mubtaahij

This is Giles potential wet dream extreme pace scenario with legitimate favorites but I think I'm going to take a 1.5% bankroll swing on this guy too!

[CincyHorseplayer]

Gotta get that pick in early before I drink warm beer and Funyons! :cool:

[Cratos]

I see the same as well (TFUS pace projector). My issue with the pace today is this: in his last 2 starts Bradester has been quarter horsed for 5 strides to get comfortable. Frosted broke great on his own in the last and when frosted saw a horse quarter horsed under him AND a foe directly to his outside , he took off outside at the 11/16's and just took charge of the hot pace. If he doesn't settle today (there will be no cover to settle him as only he & Bradester have speed, he might burn himself outside Bradester too soon.

I think I'm nitpicking as I plan on leaning on him heavily and hate seeing any chinks in a horse's armor in those cases.
Frosted demonstrated in the Whitney that he is a force to be reckoned with and his adjusted Whitney 1-1/8M time of 1:47.72 seconds with environmental impact deducted is 1:46.03 seconds.

Given that, I don’t see him being threaten today in the Woodward.

[johnhannibalsmith]

In the Woodward Frosted is the "obvious" pick. I give Shaman Ghost an outside chance.

I like it this way too. Bradester makes it an interesting proposition and have to guess that he's going hard. Frosted doesn't need to go or even really chase, but inclined to think that he'll move early one way or the other and we'll get a fast third quarter. The way he's been going, I don't really think it is a recipe for disaster but in a field with some size to it, he might have to work. Shaman Ghost is appealing off of a bad race because that will boost the price and his prior races aren't bad at all. Runs naturally in a spot that makes him less pace dependent than others and just get the sense that if there's a horse to play at the right price, Shaman Ghost is probably that horse. Hoping for double-digits, but I'm probably on board at 8-1.

[Tom]

What the heck, go for some CA$h in here

:7: Tale of Verve

$4W $12P

Box with :3: :4: :9:

[Tee]

Does the other McLaughlin work like the other Baffert? :)

Rosario must respect Bradester imo which could lead to an upset.

Let's see what happens, maybe Samraat will offer something late along with the already mentioned Mubtaahij.

[Robert Fischer]

there goes the Classic underlay :bang:


Frosted didn't get a good trip today. The announcer thought he was being hand-ridden. He was spent.

[Tom]

What the heck, go for some CA$h in here

:7: Tale of Verve

$4W $12P

Box with :3: :4: :9:

Called that one right....I'm going downtown for some cash now...from the ATM! :lol: :lol: :lol:

So, now there is only one fastest horse in the world left. :sleeping: :sleeping: :sleeping:

[johnhannibalsmith]

... Hoping for double-digits, but I'm probably on board at 8-1.

Thank you for not drifting down any farther than 9-1 and forcing me to think hard about it. :D

[camourous]

there goes the Classic underlay :bang:


Frosted didn't get a good trip today. The announcer thought he was being hand-ridden. He was spent.


he got a awful ride in the lane, beautiful set-up, typical Rosario down the lane, he was trying to not be 3rd

[SuperPickle]

Not Rosario's best work. I'm thinking more about the break and the chandelier ride on the turn for home.

He looked overconfident in the stretch but when a horse carries his head like that you can't get super low.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by porchy44
In the Woodward Frosted is the "obvious" pick. I give Shaman Ghost an outside chance.


Hope you had him! :ThmbUp:

[OTM Al]

Thank you for not drifting down any farther than 9-1 and forcing me to think hard about it. :D
Adding good old vitamin L convinced me to put him in the late P3. Two nail biting races to go to a good payoff. Probably just jinxed myself though.

[Secondbest]

Did not bet the race so no axe.I thought Rosario gave him a bad ride. I didn't see him use the whip once.Way too overconfident.IMHO.

[Dahoss9698]

Not Rosario's best work. I'm thinking more about the break and the chandelier ride on the turn for home.

He looked overconfident in the stretch but when a horse carries his head like that you can't get super low.
Rosario is the ultimate Jekyll and Hyde. Never seen a big name rider who either rides lights out or horrible.

[porchy44]

originally posted from Tom. Hope you had him!

Yes, I had had him to win. Also the daily double (with the 6 from the previous race). Missed the frosted /shaman ghost exacta box.

I have a dollar pick 3 going with the 2 Photo Call and the 3 Guapaza.

[bobphilo]

Not Rosario's best work. I'm thinking more about the break and the chandelier ride on the turn for home.

He looked overconfident in the stretch but when a horse carries his head like that you can't get super low.
I'll have to watch the replay but between breaking bad, getting caught far back behind a slow pace and going about 8-wide on the far turn, he had no chance. If he saves ground he wins by 6. Bet Thorograph gives him the top figure.

[cj]

I'll have to watch the replay but between breaking bad, getting caught far back behind a slow pace and going about 8-wide on the far turn, he had no chance. If he saves ground he wins by 6. Bet Thorograph gives him the top figure.

Agree with this 100%. The poor break cost him, and Rosario did him exactly zero favors the rest of the way.

[Fager Fan]

I'll have to watch the replay but between breaking bad, getting caught far back behind a slow pace and going about 8-wide on the far turn, he had no chance. If he saves ground he wins by 6. Bet Thorograph gives him the top figure.

For all getting the best number gets you.

Did you see the replays showing the start? It wasn't bad. What is debatable is if the rider was trying to slow him out of the gate. He had plenty of time to try to get a better position. I didn't bet the race but I'd be very unhappy if I had Frosted.

[bobphilo]

For all getting the best number gets you.



Getting the best number shows he ran the best race. Something very useful to know when he runs again. Even if you don't count the ground loss in his figure the wide trip tells you that he would have earned a higher figure with a better trip.

[Fager Fan]

Getting the best number shows he ran the best race. Something very useful to know when he runs again.

I watched the race. A number isn't going to tell me anything I didn't see.

It's irrelevant to talk about his number. What is worthwhile to consider is if this horse can win in a crowded field, or if he can win if he's too far back early, etc. this looked like the Frosted of last year instead of this year.

[burnsy]

I watched the race. A number isn't going to tell me anything I didn't see.

It's irrelevant to talk about his number. What is worthwhile to consider is if this horse can win in a crowded field, or if he can win if he's too far back early, etc. this looked like the Frosted of last year instead of this year.

Totally agree. Running like that vs. those, how will you beat Chrome or Arrogate? At 10 furlongs? The other thing was it looked like the traffic bothered him too. C'mon, he couldn't even cover up after the slower start. Looked awful for a long time.

[bobphilo]

I watched the race. A number isn't going to tell me anything I didn't see.

It's irrelevant to talk about his number. What is worthwhile to consider is if this horse can win in a crowded field, or if he can win if he's too far back early, etc. this looked like the Frosted of last year instead of this year.
Again with the number bashing. You must have had a mean math teacher as a kid.
The things you can see are useful in helping explain the variations in speed figures. The 2 are to best used in combination. To ignore either is just foolish.

[pandy]

Just because Frosted didn't run huge again today doesn't mean he won't run huge in the Classic. That may be the day when Chrome doesn't run huge. They're flesh and blood. Not that many horses run huge races in every start.

[bobphilo]

Totally agree. Running like that vs. those, how will you beat Chrome or Arrogate? At 10 furlongs? The other thing was it looked like the traffic bothered him too. C'mon, he couldn't even cover up after the slower start. Looked awful for a long time.
So he had a bad wide trip. That can happen to any horse. Chrome's wide trip cost him the BC Classic.
As far as not winning in a large field, I believe Frosted did pretty well in the large field of the Met Mile, did he not?

[bobphilo]

Just because Frosted didn't run huge again today doesn't mean he won't run huge in the Classic. That may be the day when Chrome doesn't run huge. They're flesh and blood. Not that many horses run huge races in every start.
So true. If you run often enough you get beat. Chrome got beat 4 times as a 3YO. Even Secretariat lost 4 times.

[rsetup]

"I'll have to watch the replay but between breaking bad, getting caught far back behind a slow pace and going about 8-wide on the far turn, he had no chance. If he saves ground he wins by 6. Bet Thorograph gives him the top figure.He was behind the winner but ahead of the 2nd horse the first three calls. So, let's eliminate the slow pace excuse, as the other two endured it as well. So, the top figure is because he was one position outside the next widest horse on the turn - which wasn't 8 wide, btw. Oh, and, he never went without cover on the backstretch or first turn, where he was inside, or half the stretch turn. He lost for a number of reasons but pace and being widest half the turn weren't among them. How much for these figs?

[Fager Fan]

Again with the number bashing. You must have had a mean math teacher as a kid.
The things you can see are useful in helping explain the variations in speed figures. The 2 are to best used in combination. To ignore either is just foolish.

Oh, stop it. His number for today is going to tell you zero about how he's going to run in the BCC. And as I said in my first post, his number and a quarter will get you a gumball.

[dilanesp]

So true. If you run often enough you get beat. Chrome got beat 4 times as a 3YO. Even Secretariat lost 4 times.

5 times.

[delsully]

"He was behind the winner but ahead of the 2nd horse the first three calls. So, let's eliminate the slow pace excuse, as the other two endured it as well. So, the top figure is because he was one position outside the next widest horse on the turn - which wasn't 8 wide, btw. Oh, and, he never went without cover on the backstretch or first turn, where he was inside, or half the stretch turn. He lost for a number of reasons but pace and being widest half the turn weren't among them. How much for these figs?

I don't know what race you watched but he was every bit of 8 wide.

[cj]

"He was behind the winner but ahead of the 2nd horse the first three calls. So, let's eliminate the slow pace excuse, as the other two endured it as well. So, the top figure is because he was one position outside the next widest horse on the turn - which wasn't 8 wide, btw. Oh, and, he never went without cover on the backstretch or first turn, where he was inside, or half the stretch turn. He lost for a number of reasons but pace and being widest half the turn weren't among them. How much for these figs?

The chart maker strongly disagrees with you.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Crd6R3NUsAAz2yI.jpg

[Fager Fan]

A 2yo filly just went 4-5 wide to beat fillies who were closer to her league than Frosted over Shaman.

The other stark difference is that Garcia didn't mind using the whip on her.

[Robert Fischer]

A true Breeders Cup Classic favorite wins that race, regardless of crappy positioning after the break.

The horse was spent.

blame the jockey at your own peril

had some adversity and came up empty

[cj]

A true Breeders Cup Classic favorite wins that race, regardless of crappy positioning after the break.

The horse was spent.

blame the jockey at your own peril

had some adversity and came up empty

He is a big name so there won't be any value in the future, but I think you and others are greatly underestimating how tough a trip he had.

[menifee]

Anyone think Frosted is a little better (or same) than he was last year at two turns, but has really shown that he's a special one turn horse.

Don't his figs show that?

[andtheyreoff]

5 times.

He was disqualified out of one of his wins. From 21 races, he crossed the finish line first 17 times.

[Pine Tree Lane]

Technically, got beat 4....DQ'd once. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

He is a big name so there won't be any value in the future, but I think you and others are greatly underestimating how tough a trip he had.

I agree it was tough.
I just feel that an elite horse should be able hold it together, and if Bradester doesn't wire the field, come up to the leaders under his own power, and run by a bunched up finish of G2 horses.

When Frosted gets his trip he's elite. He is capable of as much energy as just about any horse in training.
Enough adversity, and he uses his energy inefficiently.

It's my belief that we know who Frosted is, and that he didn't become a new animal at age 4 or whatever the storyline was regarding his recent form coming into the Woodward.

[dilanesp]

He was disqualified out of one of his wins. From 21 races, he crossed the finish line first 17 times.

A DQ is a loss. He lost 5 times. :)

[Cratos]

I agree it was tough.
I just feel that an elite horse should be able hold it together, and if Bradester doesn't wire the field, come up to the leaders under his own power, and run by a bunched up finish of G2 horses.

When Frosted gets his trip he's elite. He is capable of as much energy as just about any horse in training.
Enough adversity, and he uses his energy inefficiently.

It's my belief that we know who Frosted is, and that he didn't become a new animal at age 4 or whatever the storyline was regarding his recent form coming into the Woodward.
The ride Frosted got (and I am not making excuses) was horrendous; looking at Trakus data his jock took him from 8 feet off the rail at the 1/4M to over 20 feet out at the 1M (in the far turn) and he loses by .03 seconds; enough said.

[Cratos]

A DQ is a loss. He lost 5 times. :)
No it's not; it is a non-win by disqualification.

[Cratos]

Anyone think Frosted is a little better (or same) than he was last year at two turns, but has really shown that he's a special one turn horse.

Don't his figs show that?
Did you see the Woodward?

[Cratos]

"He was behind the winner but ahead of the 2nd horse the first three calls. So, let's eliminate the slow pace excuse, as the other two endured it as well. So, the top figure is because he was one position outside the next widest horse on the turn - which wasn't 8 wide, btw. Oh, and, he never went without cover on the backstretch or first turn, where he was inside, or half the stretch turn. He lost for a number of reasons but pace and being widest half the turn weren't among them. How much for these figs?
Do a turn calculation and prove that he wouldn't have gained more than .03 seconds by running half the distance off of the rail in the far turn than he ran.

[Fager Fan]

He is a big name so there won't be any value in the future, but I think you and others are greatly underestimating how tough a trip he had.

For all the discussion of Frosted's trip, Trackus shows the second-place horse went 3 feet further than him. And Samraat went 12 feet further.

[EMD4ME]

For me, the chink in his armor was his last 1/8 in the Whitney. When Joel released the hold and asked him at the 1/8, he had no bursts, no pop, nothing but the same speed. His gallop out was not amazing either for a horse who just "jogged" till the 1/8 pole.

Besides the somewhat difficult trip, he had the same last 1/8 today. Missing the acceleration, burst, kick etc.

Just don't think he's in top form now, obviously AND I don't think he is as good as his Met Mile. Ultra perfect set up, perfect storm for a sick final time AT HIS favorite distance of 1M and 1 turn.

I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.

[SuperPickle]

For me, the chink in his armor was his last 1/8 in the Whitney. When Joel released the hold and asked him at the 1/8, he had no bursts, no pop, nothing but the same speed. His gallop out was not amazing either for a horse who just "jogged" till the 1/8 pole.

Besides the somewhat difficult trip, he had the same last 1/8 today. Missing the acceleration, burst, kick etc.

Just don't think he's in top form now, obviously AND I don't think he is as good as his Met Mile. Ultra perfect set up, perfect storm for a sick final time AT HIS favorite distance of 1M and 1 turn.

I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.


I've had several breeders tell me Tapits really don't want to go a classic distance. They generally top out at a mile, mile sixteenth.

Up until recently I thought it was bs but between Frosted and Mohayman I'm buying into it.

[cj]

For all the discussion of Frosted's trip, Trackus shows the second-place horse went 3 feet further than him. And Samraat went 12 feet further.

Trakus makes plenty mistakes. That probably isn't the case here but there is so much more to his trip than ground loss. It was a slow pace and Frosted broke pretty slowly and cost himself valuable early position.

Samraat finished dead last after being up close early, how could he possibly be relevant to the discussion?

[cj]

I heard many moans about Joel not whipping and riding hard in the lane. I just don't think he's the same horse. Definitely not looking to him come BC time.

Come on, if that were an Ortiz you'd be all over him.

[EMD4ME]

Come on, if that were an Ortiz you'd be all over him.

Very true. I give you that 100%.

But I still don't think he's what people thought he was. In his current form, I want nothing to do with him. His end of his last race was a sign of a downward spiral of form. IMHO.

I hate myself for not betting against him hard today.

[letswastemoney]

I side with Robert Fischer's opinion.

I think Frosted should have done it, unless they were afraid of another big effort emptying the tank for the Breeders' Cup.

I'm also a bit wary of McLaughlin at Santa Anita, although I have no real statistics for that.

[cj]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned much is the Lasix issue. You don't get many chances to see older horses that don't use the drug add it, and we saw again today why. It clearly can be the difference between winning and losing. Non-bleeders are at a disadvantage if they don't get it.

[cj]

I side with Robert Fischer's opinion.

I think Frosted should have done it, unless they were afraid of another big effort emptying the tank for the Breeders' Cup.

I'm also a bit wary of McLaughlin at Santa Anita, although I have no real statistics for that.

I'll say this. He ran a 130 on my numbers in the Whitney going coast to coast and saving all the ground. Today he ran a 125 with a lot working against him and lost by a very small amount. I don't see the decline.

Maybe he is better at one turn. I can't argue that one at all given the way he ran in the Met. But this tailing off stuff I don't buy. Those were very good horses that beat him today.

[GMB@BP]

Frosted is a really good horse who had a rough trip and not his best day and was barely beat by some nice horses. I am glad they ran him instead of keeping him in the barn because of some silly sheet numbers.

I have always had some questions about his distance limitations and will likely stay away from him for those reasons, but at the right price I could use him in November.

[Fager Fan]

Trakus makes plenty mistakes. That probably isn't the case here but there is so much more to his trip than ground loss. It was a slow pace and Frosted broke pretty slowly and cost himself valuable early position.

Samraat finished dead last after being up close early, how could he possibly be relevant to the discussion?

That's making a lot of excuses for him. The "bad break" is being highly exaggerated, and I'm not even sure it wasn't purposeful so as to not get into a speed dual. Frosted could've moved up closer to the pace at any time.

[cj]

That's making a lot of excuses for him. The "bad break" is being highly exaggerated, and I'm not even sure it wasn't purposeful so as to not get into a speed dual. Frosted could've moved up closer to the pace at any time.

I'm not making excuses for a horse. I'm analyzing what I saw for future use. Like I said earlier, with Frosted, it probably won't matter. He is too well known and will never be value. I actually bet against him today...I'm no fanboy.

Wins are often not as good as they look, and losses are often not as bad as people make them out to be. Between here and Twitter you'd think Frosted should head to the shed.

[Fager Fan]

I'm not making excuses for a horse. I'm analyzing what I saw for future use. Like I said earlier, with Frosted, it probably won't matter. He is too well known and will never be value. I actually bet against him today...I'm no fanboy.

Wins are often not as good as they look, and losses are often not as bad as people make them out to be. Between here and Twitter you'd think Frosted should head to the shed.

He should've beaten that field if he was really the horse we saw in the last 2 races. There was only one other G1 winner in the field, and the winner had never run a triple-digit Beyer. That is why people are critical of the race.

The only thing I think worth considering going into the BC is the only thing I've yet to hear anyone mention: Whether this horse is truly a different horse with a lot of time between races as KM declares. KM gave him a lot of time off after Dubai and he ran lights out. He gave him 2 months until the next one and he ran the second best race of his career. Then KM had to choose to train him up to the BC off of an almost 3 month break, or put another race into him and then he'd be going into the BC off a more reasonable 2 month break.

[GMB@BP]

I'm not making excuses for a horse. I'm analyzing what I saw for future use. Like I said earlier, with Frosted, it probably won't matter. He is too well known and will never be value. I actually bet against him today...I'm no fanboy.

Wins are often not as good as they look, and losses are often not as bad as people make them out to be. Between here and Twitter you'd think Frosted should head to the shed.

to be fair this is the norm on twitter when ever good or name horse loses.

[cj]

The only thing I think worth considering going into the BC is the only thing I've yet to hear anyone mention: Whether this horse is truly a different horse with a lot of time between races as KM declares. KM gave him a lot of time off after Dubai and he ran lights out. He gave him 2 months until the next one and he ran the second best race of his career. Then KM had to choose to train him up to the BC off of an almost 3 month break, or put another race into him and then he'd be going into the BC off a more reasonable 2 month break.

The winner got first time Lasix and it mattered. Beyer-Schmeyers anyway :)

My point is he ran just as good today as he did in the Whitney. The difference was the trips. So I'm not buying the "needs a longer break" stuff. That is the new "cuppy track" excuse for trainers.

I've said my piece on this. Great thing about racing is we all make and back our own opinions. Always fun discussing them.

[salty]

Wow how funny. They fooled all of you, Frosted was never supposed to win the race. Can't you guys see that this was an obvious no show? The Mig of all people even pointed out that he wasn't being warmed up as well as he had been before the Whitney. Also the classic bad break excuse then going widest on the turn to really make it look bad. Can anyone tell me why they whip didn't come out in the stretch? How did this horse finish third by a neck if he was spent? How does the horse that just got the biggest figure ever a couple months ago not win this? The biggest thing that I noticed after the race was how Joel couldn't wipe the smile off his face in the paddock before the next race. Smiling, laughing even when he gets up on his horse he has to bite his top lip to try to hold in the smile. You know he didn't try to win the race. How can you be smiling and laughing after a race like that I mean really. So somebody steals your car and 10 minutes later you are laughing and smiling. No why would you! Only if you knew it was going to get stolen. Everyone up in arms over a rabbit in the sword dancer and this just goes right by completely unnoticed.

And by the way didn't anyone else find it odd that Neolithic was even in that race today? So you come off a long layoff, finish second to Summer Revolution who then goes onto the grade 1 Kings bishop, meanwhile Pletcher says hey why try a stakes lets just put him back in another one of those allowance races. I can't believe how many people got duped into betting this one. Let's put all the horses in the gate then oh let's back the 10 out then immeadiatly open the gate once he's back in. Tell me how he was nowhere to be found if they were actually trying to win the race. The pick 5 had to look playable to attract more money. Duhhhh

Yeah I might sound crazy but whatever. I don't care.

[menifee]

The winner got first time Lasix and it mattered. Beyer-Schmeyers anyway :)

My point is he ran just as good today as he did in the Whitney. The difference was the trips. So I'm not buying the "needs a longer break" stuff. That is the new "cuppy track" excuse for trainers.

I've said my piece on this. Great thing about racing is we all make and back our own opinions. Always fun discussing them.

Respect you greatly, but have to disagree. This was a weak race. Braedster does not want this distance and the other horses were weak G2-G3. Four noses on the wire demonstrates that. Frosted just ran back to his two turn form of his 3 yo campaign and had a rough trip. He's not in the same league as CC or Beholder going a route around two turns. He is the best one turn miler in the country. If I were them, I would go to the BC mile and pray he breaks or stay in NY and run in the Cigar mile.

[Augenj]

Wow how funny. They fooled all of you, Frosted was never supposed to win the race. Can't you guys see that this was an obvious no show? The Mig of all people even pointed out that he wasn't being warmed up as well as he had been before the Whitney. Also the classic bad break excuse then going widest on the turn to really make it look bad. Can anyone tell me why they whip didn't come out in the stretch? How did this horse finish third by a neck if he was spent? How does the horse that just got the biggest figure ever a couple months ago not win this? The biggest thing that I noticed after the race was how Joel couldn't wipe the smile off his face in the paddock before the next race. Smiling, laughing even when he gets up on his horse he has to bite his top lip to try to hold in the smile. You know he didn't try to win the race. How can you be smiling and laughing after a race like that I mean really. So somebody steals your car and 10 minutes later you are laughing and smiling. No why would you! Only if you knew it was going to get stolen. Everyone up in arms over a rabbit in the sword dancer and this just goes right by completely unnoticed.

And by the way didn't anyone else find it odd that Neolithic was even in that race today? So you come off a long layoff, finish second to Summer Revolution who then goes onto the grade 1 Kings bishop, meanwhile Pletcher says hey why try a stakes lets just put him back in another one of those allowance races. I can't believe how many people got duped into betting this one. Let's put all the horses in the gate then oh let's back the 10 out then immeadiatly open the gate once he's back in. Tell me how he was nowhere to be found if they were actually trying to win the race. The pick 5 had to look playable to attract more money. Duhhhh

Yeah I might sound crazy but whatever. I don't care.
For what it's worth, I agree with you. ;)

[Donttellmeshowme]

He should've beaten that field if he was really the horse we saw in the last 2 races. There was only one other G1 winner in the field, and the winner had never run a triple-digit Beyer. That is why people are critical of the race.

The only thing I think worth considering going into the BC is the only thing I've yet to hear anyone mention: Whether this horse is truly a different horse with a lot of time between races as KM declares. KM gave him a lot of time off after Dubai and he ran lights out. He gave him 2 months until the next one and he ran the second best race of his career. Then KM had to choose to train him up to the BC off of an almost 3 month break, or put another race into him and then he'd be going into the BC off a more reasonable 2 month break.




Agree he should of blown these horses away based on his last 2 race. Cali Chrome will chew him up and spit him out.

[bobphilo]

Oh, stop it. His number for today is going to tell you zero about how he's going to run in the BCC. And as I said in my first post, his number and a quarter will get you a gumball.
Pay attention. You obviously missed my point that when I said that figures and trips must be considered together. His wide trip means this particular figure was not representative of his ability as indicated by his previous numbers.

[Fager Fan]

Pay attention. You obviously missed my point that when I said that figures and trips must be considered together. His wide trip means this particular figure was not representative of his ability as indicated by his previous numbers.

I got your point. I disagree with your point. I don't care what his number comes back as. Numbers can be helpful when I don't know the horses. I know graded stakes horses, particularly the ones in the older divisions who I've watched for a time. I can see all I need to know. His number can come back for this race identical to his last race and I'll still tell you that this race wasn't as good as his last race. It is 100% irrelevant to me what number he recorded in this race.

[pandy]

David Grening tweeted that he asked Rosario why he didn't use the whip and Joel said that Frosted doesn't respond to it.

[Rise Over Run]

Well in the next race Joel decided he was better off just letting the whip go with about 50 yards to the wire. Not sure if it would have mattered, as it appeared Suffused was going by.

http://i525.photobucket.com/albums/cc339/mister_obvious/02a3aee6-d528-4906-ab0f-20e520a2da87.jpg

[pandy]

I've always felt that Rosario was a top talent, but I think it's fair to say that if Jose Ortiz was riding Frosted yesterday, he would have won. This guy is having one of those Saratoga meets that will be remembered for a long time. To win that many races when you're not riding first or second call for Pletcher or Brown, unbelievable.

[bobphilo]

I got your point. I disagree with your point. I don't care what his number comes back as. Numbers can be helpful when I don't know the horses. I know graded stakes horses, particularly the ones in the older divisions who I've watched for a time. I can see all I need to know. His number can come back for this race identical to his last race and I'll still tell you that this race wasn't as good as his last race. It is 100% irrelevant to me what number he recorded in this race.
I see, so your number phobic. I guess when you go to the doctor and he takes your blood pressure or does a blood test you just say numbers are irrelevant to you.

[Fager Fan]

I see, so your number phobic. I guess when you go to the doctor and he takes your blood pressure or does a blood test you just say numbers are irrelevant to you.

Maybe it's because my experience with horses and racing leads me to believe there are a lot of moving parts that aren't as easily definable as a number. Again, they're a good tool when I'm not familiar with the horses as they'll be a general guide of the class of the horse, but I don't and never have needed them for top horses that I'm familiar with and have watched with my own eyes.

You do realize that work is done every day with horses that have nothing to do with numbers? How did a number help you with the Del Mar Debutante when we learn that the improvement may well have been due to a change in bit suggested by a member of the gate crew?

My opinion about going wide is that it is an overestimated detriment in speed figures. Multiple horses win every day despite wide trips. I note it, and may give some credit to the horse for it, but likely always less than number makers.

This convo started because you theorized he'll likely get a good number because of him being wide. That is true, but a good number wont change my opinion of what I saw or what I think of his chances in his next race. It will be many other things but not the number he earned in this race.

[bobphilo]

Maybe it's because my experience with horses and racing leads me to believe there are a lot of moving parts that aren't as easily definable as a number. Again, they're a good tool when I'm not familiar with the horses as they'll be a general guide of the class of the horse, but I don't and never have needed them for top horses that I'm familiar with and have watched with my own eyes.

You do realize that work is done every day with horses that have nothing to do with numbers? How did a number help you with the Del Mar Debutante when we learn that the improvement may well have been due to a change in bit suggested by a member of the gate crew?

My opinion about going wide is that it is an overestimated detriment in speed figures. Multiple horses win every day despite wide trips. I note it, and may give some credit to the horse for it, but likely always less than number makers.

This convo started because you theorized he'll likely get a good number because of him being wide. That is true, but a good number wont change my opinion of what I saw or what I think of his chances in his next race. It will be many other things but not the number he earned in this race.

The Debutante is a good example to be careful with using just speed figures because it consisted of fillies making only their 2nd or 3rd career starts and rapid improvement is expected. I never said speed figures should be bet slavishly.

As for ground loss due to wide trips, it is a fact that horses lose a length for every path they go wide. Not a matter of opinion, but a precise mathematical fact, not an overestimation. Ground loss must be considered in judging a horses performance.

Had Frosted had a better trip and not lost all those lengths he would have won easily with a more typical speed figure. Just a mathematical fact.

[mannyberrios]

I've always felt that Rosario was a top talent, but I think it's fair to say that if Jose Ortiz was riding Frosted yesterday, he would have won. This guy is having one of those Saratoga meets that will be remembered for a long time. To win that many races when you're not riding first or second call for Pletcher or Brown, unbelievable.
I agree

[cj]

Respect you greatly, but have to disagree. This was a weak race. Braedster does not want this distance and the other horses were weak G2-G3. Four noses on the wire demonstrates that. Frosted just ran back to his two turn form of his 3 yo campaign and had a rough trip. He's not in the same league as CC or Beholder going a route around two turns. He is the best one turn miler in the country. If I were them, I would go to the BC mile and pray he breaks or stay in NY and run in the Cigar mile.

I don't think those are G2/G3 types at all that finished in the top 4.

[dilanesp]

I thought Frosted ran a good race, had a pretty bad trip, and gamely finished i a 4 horse blanket finish.

I'm not particularly concerned about the speed figure because he's already established he can run better.

He's clearly one of the contenders in the BC Classic.

[bobphilo]

I thought Frosted ran a good race, had a pretty bad trip, and gamely finished i a 4 horse blanket finish.

I'm not particularly concerned about the speed figure because he's already established he can run better.

He's clearly one of the contenders in the BC Classic.
Agreed. Has past speed figures earned under better trips makes him a top contender for the BC classic.

[cj]

Agreed. Has past speed figures earned under better trips makes him a top contender for the BC classic.


My only concern would be the 10f. Looking at his lifetime PPs, I think that distance has to be a big question mark.

[cj]

These are Frosted's 10f or longer races from TimeformUS PPs.

[Robert Fischer]

Let's not get it twisted. Frosted is a grade one horse.
There's no doubt in my mind that the trip cost him the race.

When he gets his trip, he's an elite grade one horse.
When he's unable to get his trip, he's a grade 2 horse.

>edit: (analogy); If Frosted were a Louisville Slugger, he'd have a smaller than average 'sweet spot'.

With a dream trip he beats that field by five lengths, "in a hand ride!", looking like he could've won by more.

As someone who is planning to bet the classic, I was hoping that Froysted would get the win here.

He was going to be off the board in the classic, while being 2nd or 3rd public choice.

[bobphilo]

My only concern would be the 10f. Looking at his lifetime PPs, I think that distance has to be a big question mark.
He does have the muscular build one sees in sprint to middle distance horses but he did run well in the 12F Belmont finishing 2nd to AP. No disgrace there.
Don't remember his figure there but he has also developed well as a 4YO and should improve on that as he has at other races he's run.
He also won impressively in Dubai in a World Cup prep at about 10F.
Could you post his PPs and figures for those races?

[EMD4ME]

I want NO part of him in the BCC. 10F is not his game.

After he flounders in the classic, like my beloved Tonalist, I hope some name runs against him in the NYRA MILE. That way I can get a price on him in the NYRA MILE and not 1/5.

However, I am still concerned about his form. Depending on how bad he loses in the BCC, then I'll see if I want him in the NYRA mile (assuming he runs there).

[bobphilo]

He does have the muscular build one sees in sprint to middle distance horses but he did run well in the 12F Belmont finishing 2nd to AP. No disgrace there.
Don't remember his figure there but he has also developed well as a 4YO and should improve on that as he has at other races he's run.
He also won impressively in Dubai in a World Cup prep at about 10F.
Could you post his PPs and figures for those races?
Opps, sorry. didn't know you had already posted his PPs. Thanks.
It seems that his performance did not slip as he stretched out all the way to 12F. His Travers figure at 10F would have won the Woodward. I think he can handle 10F.

[Fager Fan]

The Debutante is a good example to be careful with using just speed figures because it consisted of fillies making only their 2nd or 3rd career starts and rapid improvement is expected. I never said speed figures should be bet slavishly.

As for ground loss due to wide trips, it is a fact that horses lose a length for every path they go wide. Not a matter of opinion, but a precise mathematical fact, not an overestimation. Ground loss must be considered in judging a horses performance.

Had Frosted had a better trip and not lost all those lengths he would have won easily with a more typical speed figure. Just a mathematical fact.

None of that is factual.

Wide on a straight is equal to the rail on a straight. Wide only adds distance on a turn and the extra distance of a diagonal move over a straight move wherever that move occurs. That all requires some precise measurement that no one here can measure. Trackus is the best available for that.

Let me remind again that the second place finisher ran further than Frosted, so how do you figure that he would've finished ahead of the second place finisher if not for ground loss?

Finally, you have no idea nor does anyone else know that if Frosted had a different trip if it would've resulted in him winning. That's just speculation on your part over lost ground and it's not that simple. With a different trip, for all you know, he could've finished worse. Maybe he goes to the rail on the front and is pushed by another horse and ends up finishing 3 lengths off the winner instead of a neck back.

You are indeed too slavish to figures and numbers. Racing is far more nuanced than that.

[rgustafson]

My only concern would be the 10f. Looking at his lifetime PPs, I think that distance has to be a big question mark.

Exactly CJ. I don't think he is a 10 furlong horse. His one "monster fig" of course came in a one turn mile, a situation that is somewhat of an outlier that not many tracks have the configuration to run. Belmont and Churchill come to mind, but I'm not sure about others. Always, Iv'e felt the one turn mile speed figures could be kind of "iffy" when a horse was stretching out in distance around two turns. As to Frosted's trip in the Woodward I cant help but remembering somewhat similar comments about Mohaymen in the Florida Derby.

[cj]

Opps, sorry. didn't know you had already posted his PPs. Thanks.
It seems that his performance did not slip as he stretched out all the way to 12F. His Travers figure at 10F would have won the Woodward. I think he can handle 10F.

He can, just don't think it is his best.

[cj]

I want NO part of him in the BCC. 10F is not his game.

After he flounders in the classic, like my beloved Tonalist, I hope some name runs against him in the NYRA MILE. That way I can get a price on him in the NYRA MILE and not 1/5.

However, I am still concerned about his form. Depending on how bad he loses in the BCC, then I'll see if I want him in the NYRA mile (assuming he runs there).

He could run last in the Classic and he'd be 4 to 5 in the NYRA Mile.

[EMD4ME]

He could run last in the Classic and he'd be 4 to 5 in the NYRA Mile.

Correct, that's why I would hope some big name joins him in the starting gate or some hyped horse. Maybe a 3 year old.

[bobphilo]

None of that is factual.

Wide on a straight is equal to the rail on a straight. Wide only adds distance on a turn and the extra distance of a diagonal move over a straight move wherever that move occurs. That all requires some precise measurement that no one here can measure. Trackus is the best available for that.

Let me remind again that the second place finisher ran further than Frosted, so how do you figure that he would've finished ahead of the second place finisher if not for ground loss?


Yes ground loss does only occur on the turn. So you don't consider the turns as part of a race? It is a mathematical fact that the if you add to the radius of a circle (distance from the rail), You add to the circumference (distance traveled). Where did you learn your math? If you don't think having to travel farther gives you a disadvantage you should brush up on your logic as well.

Frosted had the widest trip of all. He came up on the outside of everyone. Both the 1st and 2nd place finishers saved ground on the far turn and had the shorter trip. Check the replay.

[bobphilo]

He can, just don't think it is his best.
Even if he can't match his Met Mile performance, which he probably can't, that doesn't make him questionable at 10F.
That's like holding his great mile performance against him.

[bobphilo]

You are indeed too slavish to figures and numbers. Racing is far more nuanced than that.

Wrong. I have repeatedly stated that speed figures must be interpreted in relation to pace and trip and NOT followed blindly. In some cases where big improvement is likely for most of the field, like the Debutante, I said they were of little value.
You seem to be the one who slavishly refuses to acknowledge that they have any part in comprehensive handicapping.

[cj]

Even if he can't match his Met Mile performance, which he probably can't, that doesn't make him questionable at 10F.
That's like holding his great mile performance against him.

I think he'll have a very hard time winning a G1 at 10f, that is all I'm saying. Not sure why they wouldn't try the JCGC, but the way trainers are today that is probably off the table.

[Fager Fan]

Yes ground loss does only occur on the turn. So you don't consider the turns as part of a race? It is a mathematical fact that the if you add to the radius of a circle (distance from the rail), You add to the circumference (distance traveled). Where did you learn your math? If you don't think having to travel farther gives you a disadvantage you should brush up on your logic as well.

Frosted had the widest trip of all. He came up on the outside of everyone. Both the 1st and 2nd place finishers saved ground on the far turn and had the shorter trip. Check the replay.

You enjoy trying to take jabs at my intelligence but at least make sur I'm wrong when you do so.

You say it's a loss of 1 length per path. We'll assume you mean around the turn (yes, I do know that's part of the race). arent you forgetting an important part of the equation? The distance the horse has to travel in that path to equal one length (7 feet)? Is that from start to finish of the turn = I length lost? How about if it's Belmont or Saratoga? How about if he's on the rail for half the turn then 2 off for the rest? Or maybe 1 path to 2 to 4 path?

What is the measurement for a horse who's in the 4 path swinging out to the 8 path on a straight? And conversely, swinging from the 4 path to the rail?

You're saying you have these exact measurements?

It's irrelevant that Frosted was widest down the stretch. That's a straight. The best measurement we have is Trackus which tells us the second place horse traveled the farthest.

Now, want to talk about the importance of momentum? Among other things, think of being in a car going around a sharp curve as fast as you can. The fastest way to do it is to be wide at the start of the curve then move in to inner of the curve as it straightens out. As the curve widens, the less this is true. Then there's the horse whose momentum is impeded being inside while the horse outside has no loss of momentum.

Anyway, I'm sure we're boring people to death so I'll stop before I'm accused of being like a dog with a bone.

[Mc990]

I want NO part of him in the BCC. 10F is not his game.

After he flounders in the classic, like my beloved Tonalist, I hope some name runs against him in the NYRA MILE. That way I can get a price on him in the NYRA MILE and not 1/5.

However, I am still concerned about his form. Depending on how bad he loses in the BCC, then I'll see if I want him in the NYRA mile (assuming he runs there).

Agree 100%. 1 turn mile is his wheelhouse but he's obviously a quality horse who can stretch it a little further... No way he ships to SA and beats the prospective field at 10f though.

There is also the possibility that the monster race in the Met mile ruined him. His form is headed south in a hurry and who knows if he will ever repeat that effort. If he shows up the first Saturday in November, regardless of race, he's a bet against IMO

[EMD4ME]

Was talking to the sharpest horseplayer I have ever met today and he said Joel should be suspended for his blatant blah ride in the lane.

If it was me and I had a $250k pick 6 riding on him, I would be arrested.

Thinking calmly, I still think there's something "slightly off" with this horse. MCL and Joel knew and know that IMO.

He lugged in bad under no right hand whip in the lane to boot.

[rsetup]

You are indeed slavish to figures and numbers. Racing is far more nuanced than that. This is a very good thing.

[Redboard]

I think he'll have a very hard time winning a G1 at 10f, that is all I'm saying. Not sure why they wouldn't try the JCGC, but the way trainers are today that is probably off the table.

McLaughlin today said Frosted came out of the race in good shape. I would think the JCGC would be the next logical step, assuming the BCC was their goal. I can’t see them throwing in the towel and aiming for a shorter race (BC Mile or Sprint) at this point, after just one sub-par performance. I guess he could train him up to the BC, but I’d be shocked if it wasn’t the JCGC especially since he's done well at that track with the 123 Beyer.

If he bombs at 10 panels in the JCGC, then they'd have to reevaluate.

[SG4]

I've had several breeders tell me Tapits really don't want to go a classic distance. They generally top out at a mile, mile sixteenth.

Last 3 years in the Belmont Stakes Tapit has 2 winners, a second & a third. What does a sire need to do to get some respect that he can sire a classic distance horse??

Personally I was under the impression for awhile that Tapit offspring were best at the middle distances, but having gotten burnt in those Belmonts based on this thinking I'm removing this bias from my handicapping going forward, these Tapits seem like they can do anything & everything.

I think Frosted can definitely perform at his top level going 10f, but he has been a pain in the butt to ride for awhile now & has made a habit of making jockeys look stupid. I've thought all along he's better when running from a closer/back stalker position, but you never know where he's going to be placed so it's hard to bet him with confidence.

[bobphilo]

Anyway, I'm sure we're boring people to death so I'll stop before I'm accused of being like a dog with a bone.

That is the only thing I'll agree with you on. Sorry if you think I'm trying to make aspersions on your intelligence by pointing out your logical inconsistances.
Quite frankly I feel like I've been trying to play Chess with someone who insists on playing Checkers rules. I'm done with this as well.

[bobphilo]

Getting off the discussion of the validity of speed figures, let's look at the Trakus figures for the Woodward. Contrary to what the Frosted bashers contend, he traveled 41 more feet than the winner. Yes, Mubtaahij lost about the same amount of ground but can one not consider that he also ran a great race in finishing just a head apart from Frosted? Both lost multiple lengths to the winner which indicate they both ran even better than their already high speed figures indicate.

Doesn't diminish Frosted. Maybe me have to consider another hitter to add to the BCC Classic contenders.

[Fager Fan]

That is the only thing I'll agree with you on. Sorry if you think I'm trying to make aspersions on your intelligence by pointing out your logical inconsistances.
Quite frankly I feel like I've been trying to play Chess with someone who insists on playing Checkers rules. I'm done with this as well.

Imagine what 3 letters of shorthand I want to type to you right now. The first one is a G. The second is an F. I'll let you figure out the third.

Clearly my points are all over your head. There are very few facts involved in making speed and performance figures. Almost all of it is assumption and estimates.

[bobphilo]

Imagine what 3 letters of shorthand I want to type to you right now. The first one is a G. The second is an F. I'll let you figure out the third.

Clearly my points are all over your head. There are very few facts involved in making speed and performance figures. Almost all of it is assumption and estimates.
So know your stooping to to cursing me out. I thought you were finished but you've now sunk to a new low. Shame on you.

[Fager Fan]

So know your stooping to to cursing me out. I thought you were finished but you've now sunk to a new low. Shame on you.

Getting on a high horse fools no one into thinking you didn't deserve it.

[rsetup]

Unless you're literate

[bobphilo]

Getting on a high horse fools no one into thinking you didn't deserve it.
Better to be on high horse than down in the gutter where your profanity is coming from.

[Fager Fan]

Better to be on high horse than down in the gutter where your profanity is coming from.

Get over yourself. There was nothing high class about your repeated insults on my intelligence. Keep doing it despite someone discussing respectfully with you and you'll finally get a snap back.

[bobphilo]

Get over yourself. There was nothing high class about your repeated insults on my intelligence. Keep doing it despite someone discussing respectfully with you and you'll finally get a snap back.
You call your angry posts and cursing me out discussing respectfully? You have gone over the line.
I don't have to make you look foolish, your posts do that already.
If having someone pointing out the irrationality of your arguments makes you snap, you need help.

[PaceAdvantage]

Imagine what 3 letters of shorthand I want to type to you right now. The first one is a G. The second is an F. I'll let you figure out the third.

Clearly my points are all over your head. There are very few facts involved in making speed and performance figures. Almost all of it is assumption and estimates.Thanks for ruining the thread. Your response here was unwarranted.