Lemon Drop Husker
08-04-2016, 02:37 AM
I apologize if I'm stepping on feet or anything, but just posting my thoughts on this great wagering race.
9F of what are considered 2nd or 3rd tier 3YOs that are looking to get their name in the mix, or climb up the ladder. A horse or two could come out of here as a very strong late summer/fall contender for much bigger rewards.
:1: Cupid: The "Baffert" horse. The speed demon will get to the lead and roll home. Or he won't. Pretty simple story for this guy. 9Fs could also be a question.
:2: No Distortion: A likely and possible challenger to :1: Cupid on the front end, although I'm not sure he has much choice other than to be sent. His 3 career wins have all come from being on the absolute lead.
:3: Mo Tom: A pure deep closer. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolling into the Risen Star back in February, he was a major triple crown contender. His Kentucky Derby finish was predictable/expected, and he at least rebounded with a nice Ohio Derby win. This is a dangerous horse that has to be respected, but he also needs a lot of good things to happen to win. Exotics only for me.
:4: Pinson: He is getting better. Just not sure he is ready for this level yet. Lost to :11: Forevamo last out, who is a legit contender in here, but he has to improve greatly to win this thing, and maybe even hit the board.
:5: Whateverybodywants: Lost by nearly 10 lengths to :1: Cupid last out. Lightly raced, but very very hard to see him make a monster step forward. With that said, he is a scary horse that can pop.
:6: Name Changer: Won by 11 lengths last out. Will get zero respect at the windows, and likely and deservedly so. :9: Economic Model spanked him by 6 lengths at a mile. Has he improved that much to be a serious challenge to him, much less others? Interesting horse, just not sure Saturday will be his day.
:7: Van Damme: 153/1 in the Ohio Derby, ran his brains out, and finished 5th beaten nearly 9 lengths by :3: Mo Tom. Doesn't possess any front end speed, nor tactical speed, and has all of 2 wins in 13 career races. If there is every dead money in a race, this would be it.
:8: Adventist: Very very interesting entry. This guy has been well spotted. 6 races, all of them in the money, and in some pretty damn good fields to boot. Real question for him is if he can finish a race? Always seems to hang when the real racing matters. Can he make that change today?
:9: Economic Model: As good as anybody in the field. Classic stalker that will sit in the pocket ready to pounce at the top of the stretch. Not sure pace really matters to him; he'll do what he does. IMO, this is the horse to beat.
:10: Anaximandros: Ran in an OC $16K race at Gulfstream last out. Sure, he won, but he wasn't even chalk, and it wasn't by open lengths. Lightly raced, but this is a massive class hike. 3 back, he was 114/1 in a MSW at Gulfstream. Connections aren't great, this looks like a complete stretch of an entry.
:11: Forevamo: He'll run hard. Will it be good enough? Not only to win, but hit the board? He'll be coming from behind, but it won't be hard like others. He is a grinder. Can he sit way back and close huge late with other monster closers in here? Easy one to leave out, but maybe the horse you wished you kept in? Tough call.
:12: Suddenbreakingnews: I wish he could roll back to Arkansas where I had him and Creator in an Exacta and SBN winning the Southwest Stakes. But those days are gone, and SBN has to start making some hay again. Little doubt what he'll do, and the post position is actually a good thing for him. Best news is that Quinonez is back on board. Training lights out, so a change in tactics is possible as he may be closer to the lead. Definite contender, is he ready to move forward again?
9F of what are considered 2nd or 3rd tier 3YOs that are looking to get their name in the mix, or climb up the ladder. A horse or two could come out of here as a very strong late summer/fall contender for much bigger rewards.
:1: Cupid: The "Baffert" horse. The speed demon will get to the lead and roll home. Or he won't. Pretty simple story for this guy. 9Fs could also be a question.
:2: No Distortion: A likely and possible challenger to :1: Cupid on the front end, although I'm not sure he has much choice other than to be sent. His 3 career wins have all come from being on the absolute lead.
:3: Mo Tom: A pure deep closer. Nothing more, nothing less. Rolling into the Risen Star back in February, he was a major triple crown contender. His Kentucky Derby finish was predictable/expected, and he at least rebounded with a nice Ohio Derby win. This is a dangerous horse that has to be respected, but he also needs a lot of good things to happen to win. Exotics only for me.
:4: Pinson: He is getting better. Just not sure he is ready for this level yet. Lost to :11: Forevamo last out, who is a legit contender in here, but he has to improve greatly to win this thing, and maybe even hit the board.
:5: Whateverybodywants: Lost by nearly 10 lengths to :1: Cupid last out. Lightly raced, but very very hard to see him make a monster step forward. With that said, he is a scary horse that can pop.
:6: Name Changer: Won by 11 lengths last out. Will get zero respect at the windows, and likely and deservedly so. :9: Economic Model spanked him by 6 lengths at a mile. Has he improved that much to be a serious challenge to him, much less others? Interesting horse, just not sure Saturday will be his day.
:7: Van Damme: 153/1 in the Ohio Derby, ran his brains out, and finished 5th beaten nearly 9 lengths by :3: Mo Tom. Doesn't possess any front end speed, nor tactical speed, and has all of 2 wins in 13 career races. If there is every dead money in a race, this would be it.
:8: Adventist: Very very interesting entry. This guy has been well spotted. 6 races, all of them in the money, and in some pretty damn good fields to boot. Real question for him is if he can finish a race? Always seems to hang when the real racing matters. Can he make that change today?
:9: Economic Model: As good as anybody in the field. Classic stalker that will sit in the pocket ready to pounce at the top of the stretch. Not sure pace really matters to him; he'll do what he does. IMO, this is the horse to beat.
:10: Anaximandros: Ran in an OC $16K race at Gulfstream last out. Sure, he won, but he wasn't even chalk, and it wasn't by open lengths. Lightly raced, but this is a massive class hike. 3 back, he was 114/1 in a MSW at Gulfstream. Connections aren't great, this looks like a complete stretch of an entry.
:11: Forevamo: He'll run hard. Will it be good enough? Not only to win, but hit the board? He'll be coming from behind, but it won't be hard like others. He is a grinder. Can he sit way back and close huge late with other monster closers in here? Easy one to leave out, but maybe the horse you wished you kept in? Tough call.
:12: Suddenbreakingnews: I wish he could roll back to Arkansas where I had him and Creator in an Exacta and SBN winning the Southwest Stakes. But those days are gone, and SBN has to start making some hay again. Little doubt what he'll do, and the post position is actually a good thing for him. Best news is that Quinonez is back on board. Training lights out, so a change in tactics is possible as he may be closer to the lead. Definite contender, is he ready to move forward again?