lets talk horse's condition

[jasperson]

I had a doctor's appointment so I looked for something to read. I decided on Bob McKnight's Eliminate Losers. I don't know when it was published but the price was $3 so it was old. His thing was for a horse to be in condition he had to have raced in 15 day or less or when within 30 days he had at least 1 work within 8 days. I don't think that would get you many plays today the way trainer are spotting their horses and their work patterns . I think form and condition are about the same thing,so how do you qualify a horse on condition?
I qualify a horse on form if he is within 2 lengths of the winner in sprints or 3 lengths in routes. That race must be within 30 days. A good work would be nice but not required.

[Clocker]

I think form and condition are about the same thing,so how do you qualify a horse on condition?

One indicator is to look at how long it has been since its last race, and then check the PP's to see how well the horse has done in the past after that time between races. This assumes that the horse still has the same trainer.

If it has been off for a while (such as 30+ days), check the trainer's stats on horses coming off of similar lay-offs.

[JohnGalt1]

After my third trip to Canterbury Downs--as it was called back then--I decided to actually handicap races myself instead of using the picks in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, which included some guy named Davidowitz.

The first book I bought was Eliminate the Losers. It cost me $5.00 It was published around 1963.

If I remember he had a cheap claiming sprint method where you took the fastest races from the most recent lines and the fastest races at the distance from any line, and any horse in both columns was the selection.

BUT THE HORSE'S LAST RACE COULD NOT BE OFF A LAY OFF. Which I thought he wrote was 28 days. If a cheap claimer hasn't run in 4 weeks, it's not making any money.

I did win money using his sprint and route methods for a while. And it was more fun and empowering to handicap and select my own horses.

As you stated, today horses, all classes of horses, take more time off. Which is why, even in the early 1990's his method was limited, and I found a more sound method.

All books, articles, and even comments here are worth reading, even if it teaches what NOT to do.

[green80]

In the south where we have 100 degree days in the summer, about 3 weeks between races is the norm. If a horse does anything, walk, jog, gallop, 30 days between races is OK. A lot of trainers just walk and run if a horse runs every 2-3 weeks. I would not be concerned about condition unless a horse of off over 60 days, then there must be a work by rule.

[Capper Al]

I too look at date last raced or worked and the trainer. Just one of the three has to be okay to play. For races; I use 30 days for claimers, 45 days for allowances, and 60 days for graded. For works; I like 1 work in the last 10 days if away 30 days, 2 works with the last one within 10 days for over 45 days since last race.

[EMD4ME]

Replays....Watch every one of the horse's last 10 replays head on and pan. I've seen horses who suddently run different (one of their legs operated circular in the head on) as opposed to before.

Anothet obvious example: Horse always runs professional (not rank, listens to jock) and then runs green, tail swishes out of nowhere, changes leads incorrectly etc. Horse is off form.

Other replay examples: Horse had perfect trip at correct level and couldn't finish it off. Throw out.

Normal good gallop outer gallops out poorly is a throw out (unless they were fried in the race and tired early).

There's many other factors but I'm just talking replays.

[Arapola]

Breaking slowly last few if it hadn't done so before.
Reluctant to load.
2 consecutive no excuse races when the Horse was a decent type prior to this.

[green80]

Way more horses are overworked than underworked.

[jasperson]

Way more horses are overworked than underworked.
Not at our track. Most of them come out go to the up stretch and go once around to the back stretch and back to the barn. What kind of a work is that for a horse? I used to run 3 miles five days a week now that I am 88 yrs young I only walk the dog 1 mile and bicycle outside 10 mile 3 days a week and that is a work out here Texas. Going up a hill against a 12 mph wind is work out.

[Appy]

Regarding horse works...I think you have to define what you consider a "work".

Some only consider timed breeze a work. I would agree with green that too many horses breeze more often than might be best for them, especially if they are habitually subjected to lasix.

IMO frequent, long, easy, gallops are the most beneficial conditioning track work, even though such is not recorded as a "work".

[betovernetcapper]

There are Veterinary Schools that specialize in large animals. I think there's one out West that focuses on horses. There might be some value to taking a few classes learning how to view a horse. This would be of particular use if you focused on one track or circuit. In that case after a few months, you'd have an idea of how a particular horse normally looks.
In conjunction with decent handicapping, you might have a real advantage. A lot of trainers can tell something about a horse's condition from their appearance, but most aren't the best handicappers.
Just a thought.

[Robert Fischer]

Replays....Watch every one of the horse's last 10 replays head on and pan. I've seen horses who suddently run different (one of their legs operated circular in the head on) as opposed to before.

Anothet obvious example: Horse always runs professional (not rank, listens to jock) and then runs green, tail swishes out of nowhere, changes leads incorrectly etc. Horse is off form.

Other replay examples: Horse had perfect trip at correct level and couldn't finish it off. Throw out.

Normal good gallop outer gallops out poorly is a throw out (unless they were fried in the race and tired early).

There's many other factors but I'm just talking replays.

Replays are great. Leads are key.

I don't mind seeing a dream trip last time out, as far as condition is concerned. Horse has a few things going his way, and he's fundamentally strong. However, you need the horse to jumping up in class today to get value in this case.

Signature trainer moves. Some of these trainers have a worktab patterns that they consistently use for their best stock.

Trainer stats.

Paddock inspection.

[jasperson]

Regarding horse works...I think you have to define what you consider a "work".

Some only consider timed breeze a work. I would agree with green that too many horses breeze more often than might be best for them, especially if they are habitually subjected to lasix.

IMO frequent, long, easy, gallops are the most beneficial conditioning track work, even though such is not recorded as a "work".
I couldn't agree more, but that isn't what I see! Horses need a lot slow work to get them in condition to run fast.

[Tom]

Top horses that fail to show their normal early speed, even if they end up winning or running close.

Look at the last races of Silver Charm.
Even Wise Dan showed the pattern at the end.

Subtle.

[chadk66]

let's put some myth's to bed here.
First, it is extremely rare for a horse to just walk between races if they run every 14-21 days. probably not a faster way to cripple a horse than that.

Second, it is also extremely rare to use lasix in the morning for works, and even more rare on works of 1/2 mile or less.

Third, frequent long easy gallops are really used to put a base on a horse prior to it's first start or coming back from a layoff or injury. Doing nothing but long easy gallops with a horse builds nothing but slow twitch muscles and diminishes fast twitch muscles. Long slow gallops build good bone density in two year olds, etc. But if you do that constantly with no speed work you will build a long slow horse.

Fourth, the frequency of works and distance is generally dictated by the horses needs.

Fifth, way more horses are underworked than overworked. People confuse trainers taking the edge off a horse as overworking them. It's really not preparing a horse for a race properly. There are also a huge percentage of trainers that don't feed properly so they never get the full potential out of their horses. You get out what you put in.

Sixth, one of the most overlooked conditioning elements is doing two minute miles in morning training. this is tough for handicappers because it isn't published. I think that would be just as if not more beneficial than working 3/8-1/2 mile. Those short works really do nothing for a horse in terms of conditioning. They are used more for cleaning a horse out and putting him/her on edge for a race.

[Saratoga_Mike]

let's put some myth's to bed here.
First, it is extremely rare for a horse to just walk between races if they run every 14-21 days. probably not a faster way to cripple a horse than that.



You've never observed trainers at CT.

[chadk66]

You've never observed trainers at CT.yea I'm sure they're special there lol

[Saratoga_Mike]

yea I'm sure they're special there lol

Like I said, you haven't witnessed them first hand. I'm not making a blanket statement, but there are certainly barns that will just walk them if 14 days between races.

[Ruffian1]

Like I said, you haven't witnessed them first hand. I'm not making a blanket statement, but there are certainly barns that will just walk them if 14 days between races.

Absolutely Mike.

[chadk66]

I didn't say it doesn't happen but it's extremely rare. If you strictly walked a horse for two or three weeks they would tear the walking machine down.

[chadk66]

what's the number of stalls on the grounds at CT?

[Ruffian1]

what's the number of stalls on the grounds at CT?

Not sure Chad as they used to use stalls across the street at Shenandoah and still might. There was never been a lack of stalls issue when they used Shenandoah.
Plus there are a lot of farms within 10-15 minutes where plenty of horses shuttle back and forth.
More than a few train off the nearby farms and van in for the race.

[Saratoga_Mike]

what's the number of stalls on the grounds at CT?

I haven't been to the CT backside in 6 years, but I believe most of the new stalls had been constructed at that point. I'd guess there are 800 to 1,000 stalls, but I've never been told the number. That's from just thinking about the number of barns (from 2010, that is). I think Ruffian might have a number for you.

[Ruffian1]

I didn't say it doesn't happen but it's extremely rare. If you strictly walked a horse for two or three weeks they would tear the walking machine down.

I hear you Chad but incredibly, Mike is so right.

That place is like it's own little world and I swear when you go there today, other than the slots type glitz, it feels like 1969. Lol.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Not sure Chad as they used to use stalls across the street at Shenandoah and still might. There was never been a lack of stalls issue when they used Shenandoah.
Plus there are a lot of farms within 10-15 minutes where plenty of horses shuttle back and forth.
More than a few train off the nearby farms and van in for the race.

I believe the Shen Downs barns were razed a few years ago. I was at one of those barns about 10 years ago ...wow.

[Saratoga_Mike]

I didn't say it doesn't happen but it's extremely rare. If you strictly walked a horse for two or three weeks they would tear the walking machine down.

You ever train one just on a EuroXciser?

[Ruffian1]

I haven't been to the CT backside in 6 years, but I believe most of the new stalls had been constructed at that point. I'd guess there are 800 to 1,000 stalls, but I've never been told the number. That's from just thinking about the number of barns (from 2010, that is). I think Ruffian might have a number for you.

Sounds about right Mike.

Thankfully I never stabled there. Lol

Shipped in about 4-5 times a year I guess.
A lot of one way trips where I would run them and leave them with a trainer unless they got claimed or ran out of the TV. And maybe I left them anyway.Lol.

[Ruffian1]

I believe the Shen Downs barns were razed a few years ago. I was at one of those barns about 10 years ago ...wow.

Wow is kind Mike.:D

[chadk66]

You ever train one just on a EuroXciser?are you talking a high speed treadmill? or are you referring to the oversized walker type thing they jog in front of? They didn't have the latter when I trained. I have trained horses for a few months at a time strictly on a high speed treadmill. It was amazing and the horses loved it. They did very well with it.

[chadk66]

I hear you Chad but incredibly, Mike is so right.

That place is like it's own little world and I swear when you go there today, other than the slots type glitz, it feels like 1969. Lol.CT is an isolated event in this regard then.

[Saratoga_Mike]

are you talking a high speed treadmill? or are you referring to the oversized walker type thing they jog in front of? They didn't have the latter when I trained. I have trained horses for a few months at a time strictly on a high speed treadmill. It was amazing and the horses loved it. They did very well with it.

Automated oversized walker.

I've never seen a high speed treadmill, except pictures on the Internet of horses at vet schools.

Was it safe to use for training? Does the horse "learn" to use it?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Sounds about right Mike.

Thankfully I never stabled there. Lol

Shipped in about 4-5 times a year I guess.
A lot of one way trips where I would run them and leave them with a trainer unless they got claimed or ran out of the TV. And maybe I left them anyway.Lol.

Call me crazy, but there's a certain charm to CT.

[chadk66]

Automated oversized walker.

I've never seen a high speed treadmill, except pictures on the Internet of horses at vet schools.

Was it safe to use for training? Does the horse "learn" to use it?extremely safe. Trained forty head a day on it for three or four months in the winter in MN. It belonged to the Univ. of MN. They had it for a few years and did research on it. Then didn't have a use for it anymore. So we leased it from them. The horses absolutely loved it. Never had a single incident on it. I've had horses going 35 mph on it.

[whodoyoulike]

let's put some myth's to bed here.
First, it is extremely rare for a horse to just walk between races if they run every 14-21 days. probably not a faster way to cripple a horse than that.

Second, it is also extremely rare to use lasix in the morning for works, and even more rare on works of 1/2 mile or less.

Third, frequent long easy gallops are really used to put a base on a horse prior to it's first start or coming back from a layoff or injury. Doing nothing but long easy gallops with a horse builds nothing but slow twitch muscles and diminishes fast twitch muscles. Long slow gallops build good bone density in two year olds, etc. But if you do that constantly with no speed work you will build a long slow horse.

Fourth, the frequency of works and distance is generally dictated by the horses needs.

Fifth, way more horses are underworked than overworked. People confuse trainers taking the edge off a horse as overworking them. It's really not preparing a horse for a race properly. There are also a huge percentage of trainers that don't feed properly so they never get the full potential out of their horses. You get out what you put in.

Sixth, one of the most overlooked conditioning elements is doing two minute miles in morning training. this is tough for handicappers because it isn't published. I think that would be just as if not more beneficial than working 3/8-1/2 mile. Those short works really do nothing for a horse in terms of conditioning. They are used more for cleaning a horse out and putting him/her on edge for a race.

Thanks for posting some of your thoughts on this subject. When I first read the thread title I was really hoping it would be about what you've posted instead of the posts before yours.

What you've posted are things one should be aware of but, how can a handicapper determine all of what you've posted?

Since, only #4 can be noted from the pp's. Again, thanks.

[chadk66]

Thanks for posting some of your thoughts on this subject. When I first read the thread title I was really hoping it would be about what you've posted instead of the posts before yours.

What you've posted are things one should be aware of but, how can a handicapper determine all of what you've posted?

Since, only #4 can be noted from the pp's. Again, thanks.First off I realize often times I come across as arrogant, brash, etc. etc. I joined this site for one reason. To shed light on what really goes on with horses and the backside. And how the horses world works. I felt I could give valuable information to you guys/gals but often times I end up condemning or defending the industry/trainers/jocks, etc. I am no longer involved in the industry aside from owning a broodmare and share in a stud. I don't own active race horses. So my statements are driven from my own experiences and opinions on my experience over the years I trained horses.

Now to answer your questions. Works, in my opinion are really a marginal tool at best in handicapping. I've mentioned numerous times how so many published times are incorrect. Or the wrong horse, etc. One of the things a handicapper can do is look for patterns. For example, I had many horses that I routinely blew out 3/8 two days out to get them on the muscle for a race. If suddenly I didn't do that you have to wonder why. Was the horse a little sore? Was the track questionable? Did the jock not show up to work the horse? etc. Another example of works was yesterday. A two year old we raised and sold ran her first race last night at Cby. She had by far the most works and the fastest works in the bunch. Had two published 5/8 works. In reality She had three 5/8 works, one of which the clocker only caught her for a 1/2. And on the last 5/8 work she carried it out strong for 3/4. She had a bullet 5/8 of 100.3 breezing from the gate. Well I have to tell you there are probably only a handful of MN breds ever that could breeze 5/8 from the gate without having the piss rode out of em. So that time was bogus. But it caused her to be bet down to 5-1 when morning line was 12-1. The race was 5.5F and the 5/8 split was 100.4 on a much faster track than what she worked on the morning she had the supposed bullet. Granted she had somewhat of a wide trip, she still got beat a solid 7 lengths. So she was nowhere near that speed the first 5/8. Didn't switch leads at top of the stretch and tired pretty well. But based on works alone she appeared to be a hard horse to beat. If you want to see the race it was yesterday, 8th at Cby 3 horse. She is a Kela filly too if that makes any difference.

[Ruffian1]

Call me crazy, but there's a certain charm to CT.
No question about it.

I grew up driving up there in high school from DC when I was in high school.
I have always had a real soft spot for CT and I loved Shenandoah back in the day.

[jasperson]

[QUOTE
Second, it is also extremely rare to use lasix in the morning for works, and even more rare on works of 1/2 mile or less.

This bring up another point. I see a field of 2yr olds going to the post with works no greater than 4F and 90% are on lasix and most have run no faster than 48 and change. When did they bleed? I would not give 2 cents for a horse that could not run 4f in 48 with out bleeding.

[whodoyoulike]

First off I realize often times I come across as arrogant, brash, etc. etc. I joined this site for one reason. To shed light on what really goes on with horses and the backside. And how the horses world works. ...

I really appreciate your posts. I've been following racing for a number of years but I don't know the reasons for most of these thing you guys have experienced.

Which is one of the reasons I'm on this site, another is to piss Tom off in off topic threads but he has a good sense of humor about it, I don't think he really minds or maybe he just doesn't realize it yet.

[chadk66]

[QUOTE
Second, it is also extremely rare to use lasix in the morning for works, and even more rare on works of 1/2 mile or less.

This bring up another point. I see a field of 2yr olds going to the post with works no greater than 4F and 90% are on lasix and most have run no faster than 48 and change. When did they bleed? I would not give 2 cents for a horse that could not run 4f in 48 with out bleeding.they didn't. trainers now days run everything on lasix. don't get me started on that.

[green80]

Thanks for posting some of your thoughts on this subject. When I first read the thread title I was really hoping it would be about what you've posted instead of the posts before yours.

What you've posted are things one should be aware of but, how can a handicapper determine all of what you've posted?

Since, only #4 can be noted from the pp's. Again, thanks.

You can't unless you are in the barn everyday. I would say look at the trainers record and see how well he does with his method of training. Keep in mind that the no name trainer with a few cheap horses may be doing a better job than the big name trainer that is always running even money or less horses.