Trump drops 10 pts. Stock Market drops 100.

[Tape Reader]

Yes, I know there are other Trump threads. I would like to tie one into a correlation with Trumps rise and fall in the polls, and the market.

I want to see if “coincidence” is statistically significant.

Opinions appreciated.

[HalvOnHorseracing]

Yes, I know there are other Trump threads. I would like to tie one into a correlation with Trumps rise and fall in the polls, and the market.

I want to see if “coincidence” is statistically significant.

Opinions appreciated.
I assume you meant the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped.

There are 30 stocks that are divided by something called the Dow Jone divisor and that is how you get the average. The question you have to ask is, what happened to affect trading. If the only possible explanation is that Trump dropped in the polls, than you have something. But as I have come to realize, a million nutty things seem to affect buying and selling.

The other thing is that one stock can skew the whole thing. A week ago McDonalds lost a bunch of value and the Dow Jones dropped. Knowing that gives you a different perspective.

Here's what I'd say. Track Trump's poll numbers daily and match it to the DJIA. If in two weeks they correlate daily, you might have something.

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It's a price weighted index which means that any move in MMM (about $178) has roughly 6x the affect of CSCO (about $30).

I don't know why anyone pays attention to it. I find the concept of price weighting ridiculous. CSCO could double or halve in price and it would mean less to the index than MMM going up or down 20%. Mind you CSCO has a current market cap of $158 billion and MMM $108 billion.